It’s true that Jim Hendry doesn’t have the look of one of those new Saberweenie GMs. You know, of the Theo Epstein, Josh Byrnes, Andrew Friedman ilk. He doesn’t, or maybe can’t, tuck in his shirt. He combs his hair with the Mordecai Brown method (a little spit and three fingers–and I’m going to skip on making a “sounds like my prom night” joke).
But he’s all the Cubs have. It’s up to him to turn this offseason into the most productive one he’s had in his tenure as general manager. And if he doesn’t? Well, both he and his hand picked manager will be out looking for new jobs this time next year.
There is of course, a problem. It seems that the Cubs managed to pick the wrong year to be the team with all of the money to spend in free agency. There’s nobody to get.
So as of now they’re pinning their hopes on a shortstop with Dan Hampton’s driving record, and…well, we’re not quite sure what else.
The Chicago media is pretty clueless when it comes to what moves the Cubs ought to make, and just about as clueless in regards to what moves they’re pondering.
Phil Rogers likes to throw out questions in his columns and then won’t answer them. He’s still sure that Alex Rodriguez will be a Red Sock any day now, and he’s still more concerned with that happens to the Astros and Rangers than the Cubs. So he’s no help.
The Sun-Times has an even dumber assortment of baseball deep-thinkers. Mike Kiley’s still trying to get the taste of Sammy Sosa out of his mouth, Chris DeLuca never found a point he could actually make, Greg Couch is working on yet another Cubs’ ticket broker piece and Mariotti is…well, who cares what he’s up to?
So we’re left with two options. We can actually believe the Tribune-fed drivel that rolls off the pen of the diminuative Paul Sullivan, or we hope, blindly, that Bruce Miles is actually clued into what’s happening with the Cubs.
Miles says that Rafael Furcal is the Cubs’ first target. Brucie thinks that four years, 36 million will get it done. That’ll buy a lot of Dos Equis.
He says if the Cubs can trade with the Marlins for Juan Pierre then they’ll trade Corey Patterson. I guess that makes sense. Why trade Corey unless you get his replacement? Because Corey has such value to the team. You know, not every club can throw a center fielder out there who can put up an on base average that equals his strikeouts (200).
Miles has indicated the Cubs don’t see Pierre and Furcal as an either/or. If that’s true it’s great news. Of course, I’d like for there to be a Santa Claus, and the Easter Bunny would be nice, too.
If you are wondering why the Marlins would be willing to part with Pierre, the answer is pretty simple. They just got their budget for next year and it does not have room in it for Carlos Delgado, Juan, and extensions for Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Somebody’s got to go. From their stand point, it’s an easy decision. Pierre’s going to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $7 to $8 million next year. That’s a pretty nice neighborhood.
They’re not comfortable paying a guy, coming off a bad year, that kind of money. They’re worried that since Juan’s skills are all directly related to how fast he can run, that unless he’s completely healthy he’s not of much value.
The Cubs don’t seem to have those same concerns, and it’s likely that several other teams don’t either. But the Marlins have a valid point. Pierre has no power. For a guy with this speed, you would expect him to hit more than 19 doubles in a year when he gets 181 hits. His stolen base success is not as good as you’d like. He was better last year, getting caught “only” 17 times in 74 attempts. That’s a lot better than getting nailed 24 times in 79 tries the year before.
Now his defenders will argue that he hits lots of triples (13 last year, 25 in the last two seasons), but that gets to the speed issue. He has excellent range in center field, but no arm.
So everywhere we turn, we’re faced with the same evidence. Juan Pierre’s fast and that’s what makes him valuable. The Marlins are uncomfortable with the idea of paying a player superstar money, when he’s playing on borrowed time. Juan’s skills won’t do him much good when he slows down. And everybody slows down. This isn’t Rickey Henderson, who walks 100 times a year. Juan needs to be able to beat out bunts and choppers to be of use. So the Marlins have decided he’s worth more to a team who doesn’t cringe at the thought of paying him $7.5 million than he is to them.
That’s where the Cubs come in. If you’re willing to pay Neifi Perez $2.5 million a season for two years to do whatever it is that Neifi does, you are certainly willing to take a chance on Juan Pierre’s legs at three times that number.
There’s a myth that extends to this day that Wrigley Field is a bandbox and that you can slug your way to wins there because it’s small and the wind howls out of there. The Cubs have been disproving that myth every year since 1914.
It’s true that in the ’70s when the National League was full of those big round soul-less ballparks in Cincinnati, Pissburgh, Philadelphia, St. Louis, etc., and big parks like the Astrodome, Dodger Stadium and Candlestick, that Wrigley was small. But it’s not anymore. Without exception every one of the parks that’s replaced a big round spaceship is a hitter’s park. Anybody can hit one out of the Great American Fiasco, the one in Philadelphia and Enron Minute Maid Park. Suddenly, on any day, except for the windiest of July afternoons, Wrigley’s big.
What has doomed the Cubs over the years is their inability to score any runs on days when the wind isn’t howling out. That’s most days.
As far back as the early ’80s, Whitey Herzog was wondering why the Cubs never had any speed. He looked at the thick grass in the infield and knew his pesky little Cardinals were going to have a great day bunting into that stuff. If the wind was blowing out, you didn’t need to have Dave Kingman blasting away, any well hit ball was going out. It didn’t matter if you hit one into the basket or you bounced one off the Budweiser house, it still counted the same.
In a way, Juan Pierre is perfect for Wrigley. He’s got the speed to handle anything hit to center that stays in the park (even if he told Fox in the 2003 NLCS that he’s afraid of running into the “ivory” on the wall), and that infield grass has been waiting 90 years for a Cubs’ lead off man to take advantage of it.
The other thing the Cubs would improve with Furcal and Pierre is their defense. You cannot pretend to build a team around pitching and trot out a lousy defense every day. The Cubs have open spots right now in all three outfield spots and both middle infield positions. It’s their own fault if they don’t find guys who can field those positions.
You worry that Hendry’s taking a far too simplistic approach to improving the defense. He seems to think that by trading Todd Walker to anybody the defense automatically gets better. Well, it won’t be worse, but if you end up with Corey out there misjudging flyballs and rolling around on the warning track, and Michael Barrett chasing balls back to the bricks the net improvement won’t be all that noticeable.
Hendry is rumored to be interested in either AJ Burnett or Jarrod Washburn, too. And national nitwits can’t figure out why. Well, gee, let me think who are the two most famous DL residents in the NL? If Hendry signs another starting pitcher he can start the season with Jerome Williams (assuming he’s not traded to Florida for Pierre) and Glendon Rusch in the bullpen, he could save himself from another Koronka-Hill-Ice Man fiasco the Cubs had this year.
The fear is that he’ll sign Matt Morris to fill that role, and mark my words he’ll be the 2006 version of Danny Jackson.
What is so frustrating about this offseason is that had the Cubs acted proactively last year they could have filled one gaping hole already. They were never in the bidding for Carlos Beltran, and Carlos took a whole lot of money to play for a team he wasn’t sure he even wanted to play for. How would that have changed had the Cubs offer been more than the Astros and less than the Mets? We’ll never know. The Cubs by that time knew they had to dump Sammy Sosa, but were unsure of how much contract they’d have to eat to do it. They would not allow a one-time bump in the payroll to make those matters irrelevant while Beltran was still a free agent.
Instead, they chose to save their pennies for this offseason. When there’s nothing to sign.
If they sign Furcal, and it’s a safe bet they will (the Braves piddled away almost the entire time they had exclusive negotiating rights with him without talking contract, and the Mets want him to play second base), he will fill a gaping hole. There’s no denying his talent, and both his errors (15 last year, 55 in 2003-2004) and plate discipline (.394 on base average after July 1) improved. He has the best arm of any shortstop since Shawon Dunston (it’s literally breathtaking at times) and superior range on pop-ups. Nothing helps a shaky left fielder (cough*MattMurton*cough) more than a shortstop with enough range to allow him to play a couple steps deeper.
If the Cubs sign Furcal next week, they’ll be better. But it’s easy to fill a big hole with the best free agent on the market. It’s what they do with the holes in center and right when there aren’t any quick fixes, that will tell the tale.
Miles mentions that Pat Gillick is considering shopping Bobby Abreu, and that the Cubs would have interest. They’re a daisy if they don’t.
Abreu is paid like a superstar. He made $13 million last year. But his numbers do not reflect what we assume a superstar’s should look like.
He’s a good but not great hitter. He has a career .303 average. He’s got good, but not great power. In eight full seasons he’s hit 30 or more homers twice and his career high is 31. He’s driven in 100 runs four times, but never more than 110.
What he is, is remarkably consistent. And, he gets on base like nobody’s business. In those eight full seasons, he’s posted an on base average of better than .400 seven times. His career WORST is .393. He won the gold glove this year (though nobody’s sure if he really deserved it), and he has seven seasons of 20 or more stolen bases, including 71 the past two years.
In a lineup with Derrek Lee and E-ramis Ramirez, Abreu would be the perfect compliment. Then again, somebody with those all-around (proven) tools fits in any place.
What if on opening day the Cubs’ lineup looked like this:
cf Pierre
ss Furcal
rf Abreu
1b Lee
3b E-ramis
c Barrett
lf Murton
2b Cedeno
p Zambrano
Do you think you could win with that?
My feeling on Dusty is that if you give him a good team, he’ll win with it. If you give him a team with any noticeable flaws that team has no chance.
Of course, what we don’t know is if Abreu is available and how much it’s going to cost the Cubs in terms of prospects, pitchers and money to get Pierre.
But if you’ve been building to one offseason for two years and it’s here. It’s hard to imagine you’d settle for just more spins of the Wheel of Misfortune.
Then again, remember what franchise we’re talking about there.
“(Furcal) has the best arm of any shortstop since Shawon Dunston (it’s literally breathtaking at times).”
How does an arm *literally* take one’s breath away? I’ll guess that this is a Itchy-Scratchy thing where Furcal’s arm reaches down one’s trachea and yanks out the broncheal tubes.
compliment/complement discuss. I might flip Furcal and Pierre , but I could live with that lineup for 162. I might try to get Neifi 140 starts behind the plate. The man can visit the mound.
That lineup won’t win unless KW and TPFKATF (The Pitcher Formerly Known As The Franchise) give you 400 innings.
Screw you bft…
Don’t I have my own web log?
Chances are that Hendry will make a move (and probably a big one) that no one will have talked about, and they will sign Furcal. It’s all speculation at this point, and it’s not time to panic yet. We’ll have plenty of time to do that starting in mid-March.
Signing Molina and dealing Barrett might be a good start.
I’m still mourning the cat.
I would be the one thing that pushes the Cubs into the playoffs. No way you miss the playoffs if you have me and Furcal. NO WAY.
I am gold and a five tool player  yes, FIVE tools. Beltran wishes he were me. Hell, the Mets GM wishes Beltran were me. You want guys on base for Lee and A-ram? I am at the top of the list. If it’s between me and Pierre, pick me. Every time.
Yeah, Dave, Hendry will make a big move. I agree with this baseless claim. Or is it wishful thinking? Methinks the latter.
And did anybody else have trouble figuring out what the hell Telander was writung about in his column today?
I can take your breath away with my arm, Chuckles. Just come over here and I’ll show you.
How is today any different than any other Telander column?
#8, I accept your challenge.
Dudes, with me at the helm, the Good Ship Cub is sailing straight into the playoffs. Just give me more veteran leadership like Neifi, and we’re rocking dudes. I’m talking Horatio Hornblower here, dudes.
And the Atlanta police department takes my breath away.
I agree that Telander’s columns tend to be pointless and rambling, but today’s steaming pile seemed to stick out more than usual.
If you want to explain how you figure Furcal’s arm is better than mine, I’m literally all ears.
Does anyone really believe that Cedeno will remain in the starting lineup with Neifi on the bench (at 2.5 million)? Why not make Cedeno the trade bait rather than Walker.
Because Ronny Ce is cheaper than Walker and would allow the Cubs to have an extra $2mm to throw at Abreu/Washburn/Burnett/Giles/Furcal/Millwood.
The math of Millwood+RonnyCe > Walker + Rusch
I once took Jim Miller’s arm and breath away. He only got one of them back.
I’m literally all ears too.
Yeah, ok Juan. Your gold glove is in the mail too.
If money is a problem, why the hell would you give Neifi 2.5 to be a sub?
Insurance on Furcal. Kinda like Jack Haley was for Dennis Rodman.
Brain, follow the dots: Neifi is being paid to be a back-up (which he’s much better at than starting 125-plus games) and also to help recruit his buddy Furcal. I honestly don’t think the plans are for him to start more than 30-40 games at SS or 2B. I have no problem with Neifi off the bench.
“My feeling on Dusty is that if you give him a good team, he’ll win with it.”
Hasn’t the theme of almost every Dose (other than those written in October) the last 2 years been that Dusty has been given a team that’s better than most or all of the ‘vastly inferior’ teams in the NL?
I’m heading to St. Louis tomorrow for Hawks-Blues, so I pop on the Post-Dispatch website to see what’s going on in Moranville. One of the top stories is how St. Louis leads the nation in the rate of gonorrhea cases, and they’re second in chlamydia and fifth in syphillis. I may need one of those body-condoms from “The Naked Gun”.
Here goes Dave B with the recruiting again. First he says I was hired primarily for my ability to recruit players, now the backup middle infielder is a recruiter too. When do the recruits get here?
Dave, wouldn’t you actually have to be close to getting laid before thinking about that?
The recruits just got off the damn bus…and a fine bunch of men they are, sir.
I understand the theory that Neifi is an insurance policy/recruiter. I simply don’t believe that Dusty will hesitate to start Neifi at second at the first sign of struggles from Cedeno. I’d prefer Walker to Cedeno in any event.
Dusty’s sort of like me, while Neifi is like the skanks that I introduce the recruits to after they get liquored up.
What kind of dick-wad sits around on this site waiting for people to post comments and observations, then anonymously belittles them? Get a life, moran.
#33 needs me.
Annoyed, you giant homo, everyone knows “Anonymous Intrepid Reader #29” takes in more twat than any of us combined.
Sorry 34, it wasn’t me. I would’ve labeled you a “fuck-stick”, so shove your crying towel up your ass.
I don’t get it, all this arguing seems pretty dumb. Especially when a cardinal fan with a soul is even bringing the heat.
Don’t you guys know that fighting on the internet makes us all dumber?
I guess I should have said the only cardinal fan with a soul, and I am assuming he has one since he is on this site. And he’s a good b ball writer as well.
Dave B. doesn’t need me. He needs a bubble suit if he’s going to St. Louis. And he should give the crying towel to those Bawling Redbird Fans (“Oh my god! (sob) We’ve seen TONS of games here… tons…”).
Finish the sentence.
“If you give him a team with any noticeable flaws that team has no chance.”
You give Dusty a team with one or more spots where he has to think, or manage, like he did in 2004 and 2005, and he has no chance.
I am pretty fun to read today.
Is one column on the bulls too much to ask Mr. Dwyer?
I’m also super-bad, too.
I’ll write a column on the Bulls as soon as I’m allowed to start Scott Skiles “Dickface McGee.”
Although they did let me slip in “crotch-puncher” last week:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/basketball/nba/specials/preview/2005/10/31/experts.picks/2.html
Someone address me!
This Abreu thing is interesting, but pretty far fetched. Abreu is perhaps the most underrated player in the game, or at least he was before he hit 256 homeruns in a row in the home run derby last year. He gets paid superstar money because he is one of the best players in the game. Needless to say, I would be very suprised if he was traded anywhere, especially to the Cubs. I heard an interview with the phillies beat reporter two days ago. He was saying that right now the new 68 year old GM has to address what he is going to do with Jim Thome. Thome may or may not be healthy, he is owed a boat load of money and they already have a fist basmen named Ryan Howard who just hit 11 home runs in one month and won rookie of the year award. This writer, (I can’t remember his name, but you can hear it on MLB.com) said that the talk of trading Abreu is overblown. It was an outside possibility that would only come up in a situation in which the Phills were unable to dump Thome and decided to move Howard to the outfield (where he has never played before) and keep Thome at First. Then, in theory, Abreu could be available in a trade, but even then, they would need to get some great pitching in return.
In other words, it’s not going to happen.
I’m all for wishfull thinking, but talking about the Cubs getting Abreu sounds to me like too much wishfull and too little thinking.
Face it bitches, I’m as good as gone. The question is whether or not I’ll be Choied or Duboised.
Right now, I have value. I’m young, I’m cheap, I’ve put up good numbers in the minors, I have some major league experience, and I still have an upside. Florida needs a shortstop to replace Alex Gonzalez’s brother from another mother. They also need some one who can replace Pierre as a top of the order hitter. I’m their man. Center a package around me and you could get Pierre without much trouble.
However, if I’m still on this team when the season starts, my ass will be on the bench for most of the season. Dustbag will decide he wants veteran leadership and will start Neifi almost every f’n day at second base over me. Come June, I’ll be traded for Jody Gerut. You just watch.
Hellooo Bullpen!
I agree. I think we can sign Furcal and Burnett, swing trades for Pierre and Abreu, and have plenty of money left to pursue Trevor Hoffman (to set up Dempster). Also, my sources say that Hendry is considering acquiring Dunn and Man-Ram in a three team blockbuster. (Dunn would be the 4th OF/backup 1B).
Say what you want, but I was the best dressed Bull on the bench.
Commissioner Stern appreaciates guys like me.
If you knew two guys, one named Flippy and the other named Hambone, which one would you think liked dolphins the most? I’d say flippy wouldn’t you? You’d be wrong though. It’s hambone.
That’s gold.
What if on opening day the Cubs’ lineup looked like this:
cf Pierre: From “declining” to “bad” to “worse” –all in a Cubs uniform, remember
ss Furcal: glup-glup-glup-glup-glup-glup aahhhhhhhhhh…*brrrrrp!*…now, I suppossa show up at ballpark whaing?!?
rf Abreu: Lessee, if I’m pulling the ball against the wind most of the time, and it’s 353 down the line…hmm…nah, I’d rather play for my homeboy Ozzie anyway. They did end up letting Konerko go, right? Hm, where’s the speed-dial on this thing…?
1b Lee: “Career year”? Check your rear-view mirror, and don’t blink
3b E-ramis: Whoa, my achin’ [name a body part vital to performance of routine baseball tasks; update weekly]…
c Barrett: Well, the scouting reports say that I can hit, anyway…or at least that’s what they’ve always said up until now…
lf Murton: Wait, how exactly do you catch and throw this thing again? Never mind –when’s BP?
2b Cedeno: They keep telling me I’m the shortstop of the future…and that I always will be
p Zambrano: Maing, they took my meds away at Customs. I need to fix another plate and find somebody to throw at –kinda puts Roy Oswalt in perspective for you all, dunnit?
Fact is, they’ll have to finish ahead of either St. Louis or Houston AND all four of the also-rans in the East…and the West may not improve, but it can’t get any worse.
Nice work, 53. Just aces. You’re a regular Thor Doggie.
I’d guess that 53 was Kaseberg, but I don’t even think he could be that “witty”.
My source tells me players will get traded this winter between multiple teams, who has this on their radar?
My sources tell me the Cubs will pick up most of the players no one else wants.
#57, guess what; they’ve already started!
Dusty needs me like a fat kid needs whole milk.
This team can’t win with me behind the plate, after all, I have no concept of the game, don’t understand how to work a hitter, and can’t even block any balls in the dirt. The North Siders need to trade me, make Hank White the starter and get a solid backup.