Your new right fielder, Carlos Zambrano!

OK, the Cubs and Brewers are not in a flat footed tie atop the NL Central, the Brewers are technically still in first place by one half of one game.  After a weekend getting the river bank banjo serenade and buggering by a less than mediocre Cardinals’ team, the Brewers are staring at the very real possibility that when they go to bed tonight, that eight and a half game lead they once had in the Central will have completely vanished.

Hey, we’re Cubs’ fans.  We know how they feel.  Still, screw ’em.

The fact remains that if Jock Jones had learned to slide, or even stop, drop and roll, that the Cubs would already be in first place.  It’s nice that he takes the time to remind us that he still blows.

While the Cubs were winning two of three in St. Louis and then Cincinnati, the Brewers were losing six of the eight games they crammed into the same week.  They did it in epic fashion, blowing a two run ninth inning lead in Cincinnati, the second of two extra inning losses to the Reds, and then blowing leads of 6-0 and 5-0 in St. Louis in a two-day span.

For those of you worrying that the Brewers have left the Cardinals in the race, just consider that the Cardinals are gaining ground on the wrong team.  At the All Star Break the Cardinals were 7.5 behind Milwaukee, now they’re only six.  At the All-Star Break the Cardinals were three games behind the Cubs, now they’re five and a half.

The Cubs surge has continued unabated since June 3, and even the stat geeks have caught Cubs’ fever.  Despite trailing Milwaukee in the standings, the Cubs are now considered a  better bet to make the playoffs than Milwaukee is.

True, this same formula made the Cubs a lock to reach the playoffs in 2004 up until the very end of the season.  So, take it for what it’s worth.

Not very much.

The Cubs still have two days to improve their roster, and while it seems that they’re content to wait for Kerry Wood to finish his final rehab stint (this time in AA) and for the Hank White cavalry to arrive, we know better than that.

Jim Hendry’s always looking to make a trade.  It doesn’t mean that he will, or that if he does it won’t be fruitless, but he’s always looking.  He tried to sell Lou on the idea that Matt Murton is like getting a solid bat at the deadline, and Lou is so excited that he promised Murton a start on Saturday, and changed his mind, then promised him on on Sunday and changed his mind again.  Lou doesn’t trust Matt.  When Lou doesn’t trust you, you’re pretty well screwed.

I’m excited about the Kerry Wood return, if only for the moment when he saunters in from the bullpen with the crowd going nuts.  It’s a moment he deserves to have, after all of the work he’s done to get himself able to pitch again.  Kerry’s one of the good guys.  A guy who “gets it” and who should have been a star, but his body just wouldn’t let him.  At least not for any prolonged period of time.

That said, I fully expect him to pitch until his arm falls off for good, and I would be surprised if that doesn’t happen between now and the end of the season.  It’s why I don’t understand why he’s going on another rehab assignment.  He’s got a torn rotator cuff, and eventually it’s going to blow on him.  He’s only got a few bullets left.  Better he fires them in Chicago than Tennessee, right?

The Cubs could use another outfielder.  A centerfielder would be nice, though you get the feeling that we’re going to see take three of the Felix Pie era sometime between now and the end of the season.  If not a centerfielder to replace the folly that is Jock Jones, than a right fielder not made of paper mache like Cliff Floyd would be nice.

I like Cliff.  Hell, we all do.  But he’s got a medical chart far more well rounded than his Baseball Reference entry.  Every time he even looks at the grass he hurts himself.  A trade for Ken Griffey Jr. would be great, though unlikely (if only so he and Cliff could have a race to the DL), and I’d take a flyer on Jermaine Dye (.317, six homers, 12 RBI, six doubles, .394 oba, .698 slg in 63 abs since the All Star Game), though Kenny Williams reportedly is asking for Carlos Marmol in return.

Even if you think Marmol’s an arm injury ready to happen, you can’t weaken your bullpen when its turnaround is what turned your season around.  Nothing kills a team faster than a bad bullpen (see the 2007 Brewers, 2003 NLCS Cubs, 2004 Cubs for recent examples).  Hey, how about Neal Cotts back?  Roberto Novoa’s available!  Oh, forget it.

The Braves just traded for Mark Teixiera (how do you spell that?) so at least one impact player has come into the NL playoff race.  Wait, that’s two if you count Seth McLung.

I had the McLung Super Value Meal once.  Not bad.

Given the fact that the Cubs are a better road team than a home team (only by one game, now though) and Milwaukee is great at home and lousy on the road, it makes sense that July was the month when the Cubs caught up.  Both teams played only ten home games during the month, and the Brewers were a disastrous 4-11 in their 15 road games.  The Cubs have gone 7-3 at home and 8-5 on the road during that span, actually out playing the Brewers at home by a game.

But you can look at numbers until you’re blue in the face (honestly though, why would looking at stats cause the blood to drain from your head?), the reason the Cubs have caught Milwaukee is that the Brewers are a good team, but one that played over their heads early in the season.  That was fueled by great starts from Prince Fielder and JJ Hardy.  Prince has kept it up for the most part.  JJ has not.  And that’s not a surprise, nothing in JJ’s history at either the big league or minor league level pointed towards the offensive production he gave them in April and May.  At the end of May, JJ had hit 15 homers and driven in 43 runs.  Those nearly duplicated his career TOTALS coming into 2007.

Since June 1 he’s hit three homers and driven in 14 runs, and he’s hitting .219 with an OPS of .623.  Ouch.

Much of that has been offset by the production Ryan Braun has given the Brewers.  But Hardy’s downfall certainly cut into whatever boost Braun’s offense could give Milwaukee.  Instead of adding to their attack, Braun was merely picking up the slack for his shortstop.

So here we are on July 30.  The Cubs once laughable quest to get back into the division hunt has somehow worked out.  Now it would just like the Cubs to come all the way back, get the lead, then give it back and fall completely out of the race.

I can’t help it, every loss to me feels like the start of a skid.  Then, they bounce right back.  At least they have so far.  Objectively, the Cubs are a solid team with three offensive superstars, the NL’s best starting pitcher and a solid, deep pitching staff.  They play good defense, only occasionally still get lost on the base paths and are the only team in their division with winning records at home and on the road.  After this homestand with the Phillies and Mets they will play a grand total of 14 games against teams with a winning record (and Colorado might not still have a winning record by the time the Cubs get there).  They should win the division.

The Cubs have done a lot in a short period of time to deserve our confidence.  I’m not quite there yet.  But that doesn’t mean I’m not enjoying the hell out of this.