A preview this good can’t be contained in one post. So we start with the pitchers today. Actually, I make no promises of quality. I’m kind of like Kentucky Fried Chicken that way. Put enough extra crispy on anything and somebody’s going to eat it.

It’s an odd feeling right now for most Cubs’ fans. The experts keep saying that the Cubs are clearly the best team in the NL Central. But either it’s our ingrained pessimism, or something more tangible, but do any of us think the Cubs are that good?

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s a pretty fair team. Much better than most of the crap they’ve run out over the past several decades, but something’s missing.

After all, this is a team that won a division last year that couldn’t even be labeled as mediocre by even those with the most charitable of assessments, and then got pantsed in the playoffs by a team full of nine year olds who gave up more runs than they scored during the season.

The Cubs took that team, dumped some of the dead weight (some, not all) and brought in an Asian with a hilariously inappropriate last name, and suddenly they’re the 1998 Yankees?

I don’t think so. I’d like to think so. After a six pack of Carlsberg I do believe it, but… but… I just… I…

Oh, screw it. Let’s break things down scientifically and maybe the real, official data will make us all feel better.

There are a lot of projection systems available on the internet. Baseball Prospectus uses PECOTA, Baseball Think Factory has DIPS, some guy in southern California has CHONE, and Bill James has one on his new Website, www.billjamesonline.com. We have our own for hitters at Desipio, you’re all familiar with the HWEqBA, system, which was originally created as the only possible way to accurately measure the overwhelming contributions of Henry Blanco.

So we needed to come up with one for pitchers, and we have it. Our first attempt was something called SCANLAN, but that one fell apart when we realized that it was pretty just measuring how many times Jim Riggleman would force a guy to warm up in the bullpen without actually using him. Back to the drawing board.

Then, we thought we had something with HARQEE, until one of our crack researchers fell down a short flight of stairs (sort of like the ones that go into a dugout) and broke it.

So, we’ve settled with the Performance Indicating Causality Optimizer, or PICO. It’s good stuff. I’d explain how it works, but frankly, I don’t think any of you are at the proper level to appreciate it. (You might be thankful for that.)

Anyway, let’s get to the previewin’.

Starting Rotation

1. Carlos Zambrano — Carlos had one of the strangest seasons in big league history last year. At times he was dominating, other times he was awful, he beat up his catcher, he taunted Cubs’ fans for booing him, he signed a $90 million contract in the middle of the season and he won 18 games and pitched pretty well in the playoffs. That’s a lot for one year. He’s been unbelievable this spring (not that it matters for anything–Rich Hill was stupendous in spring 2007 and now…uh, we’ll get to Rich). But Carlos seems primed for a big year, and PICO agrees.

PICO projection: 29-2, 1.01 ERA, 474 strikeouts, 9 walks, 1 HR allowed

OK, maybe we need to tone PICO down a little. Let’s try that one more time:

PICO projection: 21-5, 2.92 ERA, Will serve a nine-game suspension for sticking the barrel end of a broken bat into JJ Hardy’s pants.

See, that’s more like it.

2. Theodore Roosevelt Lilly — I’d like to take credit for Ted’s big season last year. I spouted some nonsense all offseason about how Lilly seemed to me to be one of those lefties who would likely be better in his 30s than his 20s, and voila! He had a really good year for the Cubs. Of course, I was just throwing crap at the wall. What really helped Ted was his ability to keep his walks allowed down. He struck out a career high 174 men (and boys) in 2007 and allowed only 55 walks. Not too shabby.

Unfortunately, PICO isn’t as optimistic about Ted’s 2008 season.

PICO projection — 0-1, 4.50 ERA, one start. PICO thinks this is the year the feds find the bodies he’s been stuffing into his crawlspace. Sorry.

3. Jon Lieber — The Cubs will tell you that adding Jon Lieber to their staff just improves their depth. I say that when he’s clearly your third best starter and he’s 38 years old and about 30 pounds heavier than he was the last time he pitched for you (when he wasn’t exactly a svelte) that if your pitching was a pool, that somebody would have spray paint “NO DIVING” on the edge. Huh? Never mind. Lieber’s been good this spring, and if he can keep from rupturing anything his his foot (ouch) like he did last year, he’s probably going to have a pretty good year.

PICO projection: 12-8, 4.03 ERA, BA by righthanded hitters against him .123, BA by lefthanded hitting hitters .873.

4. Rich Hill — It’s funny to say vulgar things about Cubs pitchers. Matt Clement was a pussy, Mark Prior was a pansy and Rich Hill is…softer than Charmin. It’s funny because it’s true. OK, maybe it’s not completely true, but come on, one guy spent his Cubs’ career looking wistfully at the bullpen hoping someone would take the ball from him, another guy spent most of his time in that bullpen flipping a dishrag and the third guy has enough talent to be a dominant starter and so far, except for a couple of nice stretches, he hasn’t done it. Now Rich is getting torched in the spring, which…oh, who cares? Spring training stats mean squat. Gary Scott was a legend at Hohokam, how did that translate? A couple years ago E-ramis tore the Cacti League a new one and spent April popping up to the catcher. Rich is going to be fine. He should be better than fine, but he’ll be fine.

PICO projection — 14-10, 3.95 ERA, Games in which he looks unbeatable for three innings, and clueless in his other three– 30.

5. Jason Marquis — I think the whole Ryan Dempster experiment is just Lou Piniella’s way of making us think Marquis’ starts are the lesser of two evils. I don’t get Marquis. He’s as sinkerball pitcher for the most part and you always hear announcers, especially Steve Stone, say that sinkerballers are tougher when they’re a little tired because the ball gets more natural sink. So isn’t it counterintuitive that Marquis would be better earlier in the year when he’s supposedly stronger than late in the year when he’s a little tired? But we all know he’s the king of April and May and then becomes progressively more useless as time goes on through the season. This makes no sense. We know the Cubs are trying to trade him, but honestly, I have more confidence that a good first half and bad second half from Marquis will actually be better than an entire season of Ryan Dempster (which is probably just going to be a bad first half and a horrendous second half.)

PICO projection: 12-12, 5.00 ERA (First half 12-0, 2.00 ERA, Second half 0-12, 8.00 ERA)

Bullpen

Kerry Wood — Lou wants to make Wood the closer and just like always, Kerry was all ready to step up and take on a huge role only to get immediately get hurt. This time it was “just” a back spasm, and he’s since returned to pitch, but it was unnecessary reminder that as cool as Kerry is, his body is made out of paper mache. Still, I don’t understand what harm there is in making him the closer. You still have Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry if when Kerry gets hurt. When he’s healthy, he’ll be great in the role. It gives complete idiots like Jay Mariotti and Mike Downey something to write about, but otherwise nobody cares. Playoff teams change closers all the time. The White Sox didn’t pluck Bobby Jenks out of rehab until like July the year they allegedly won the World Series. The Rockies made it to the World Series last year when they switched from Brian Fuentes to Manny Corpas not long after that wild Cubs-Rockies game when Howry blew a lead, got attacked by a fan and Soriano won it. Even the Red Sox were going to make their closer a starter last spring. As long as you’re not relying on Kyle Farnsworth or LaTroy Hawkins to step into the role you’re probably OK.

PICO projection: 0-3, 2.99 ERA, 30 saves in 34 chances — DL stints: 2 One for a bad back, one when a six falls out of the Wrigley scoreboard and hits him in the arm.

Carlos Marmol — Another example of why it’s folly to rate anybody’s bullpen on or around opening day. Carlos was in Iowa to start last season and nobody foresaw the incredible impact he’d have on the bullpen, and the team. The scary part is that every team has had guys pitch out of their minds one season and never be heard from again. Les Lancaster was the balls in 1989, and he had some good seasons with the Cubs, but nothing like that, in fact his ERA went up three runs in 1990. Marmol’s talented, and should continue to be good, but who knows. His spring has been terrible, and he started to sag at the end of last season and in the playoffs. If he’s as good as we all think he’ll be, then he and Wood and Bob Howry will give the Cubs a great back end of their bullpen.

PICO projection– 5-4, 2.80 ERA, nine saves in 12 chances, 14 instances of opposing righthanded hitters soiling themselves in fear of his slider.

Bob Howry — Here’s the worst case scenario for the Cubs and their bullpen. Wood doesn’t take quickly to the closer role, Marmol struggles and Howry pitches in April and May like he does…every April and May. For some reason, Bob can’t break 90 until school is out. When he’s right, like he was from June on last year, he’s efficient, and somehow mows guys down even though he only throws one pitch. Just a fastball.

PICO projection — 3-4, 3.49 ERA, seven saves, 147 games pitched in (Give or take 60).

Michael Wuertz — The Cubs are going to trade somebody in this bullpen, most likely it’ll be Rule V pick Tim Lahey who’s pitched really well this spring, but it could be Wuertz. Wuertz is solid, has a great slider and an assortment of meatball pitches that go with it. He’s got a rubber arm, doesn’t complain when Lou leaves him out to take a pounding on those days when the game is out of hand and somebody in the bullpen needs to take one in the shorts. If you need an out against a tough righthanded hitter Mike and his slider come in handy. If it’s a lefty? Uh…let’s focus on the positive.

PICO projection — Who cares?

Scott Eyre — A despicable, fat loser who tried to pass off a mediocre second half as a great one just because his first half last year was so atrocious.

PICO projection — Would best serve the Cubs by being under, not on the charter bus to the airport.

OK, fine he had an 0.81 ERA in the second half. But it was in only 22 innings. Lou was still afraid to use the fat fuck. And, I blame him for the Sam Fuld love. If he doesn’t give up a drive to the wall against some douche like Chris Duffy, or whoever it was, Sam doesn’t have to leap into the vines and turn that absurd double play, giving false hopes to dwarves all over the world.

Kevin Hart — I love that the Orioles are trying to collect as many arms as possible in their trades of their few useful veteran parts. Could they use a guy like Kevin Hart? He posted a ERA of 0.82 in September last year, made the playoffs, pitched in the playoffs and has already wrapped up a job in the Cubs bullpen for this year. Well, the O’s did have him, until they traded him the Cubs…for Freddie Bynum! Muahahahahahahaha!

PICO projection — Better than Freddie F. Bynum.

Random Douchebag

Ryan Dempster — Guh. Ugh. Woof. Back in 2003 when the Cubs paid him to rehab his Tommy John Disease with the thought of making a reliever out of him, it seemed like a good idea. He pitched OK in 2004, until he flamed out on the second to last Saturday of the season in Shea, and was a pretty good closer in 2005. He was less than that in 2006, and OK last year when it was a save opportunity. But he’s just not that good. He throws kind of hard, but the ball doesn’t move much, his offspeed stuff is OK, but he can’t control it all that often. As a starter in Florida and Cincinnati he struggled with his control, and he did the same in the bullpen. This won’t end well.

PICO projection: 8-12, 5.20 ERA, too damn many walks (scientific term), way too damn many homers allowed (also, very scientific)

AAA fodder/trade bait

Sean Marshall — He’s not as talented or durable as Hill, but he’s younger and not as much of a wuss, but he’s a little lazy. Hey Baltimore! Sound good?

Sean Gallagher — He’s good enough that you’d think Baltimore would do the Roberts trade just to get him and take a flier on a few other Cubs’ farmhands. One red flag is that he was fat until this year, and he’s not exactly an Olsen Twin now.

Jose Ascanio — Hasn’t gotten his ass kicked in a bar and pretended it was a 7-11 parking lot mugging in a month.

Neal Cotts — Blows.

Juan Mateo — Looks a little too much like Mel Rojas for my tastes.

Jose Ceda — The fact that he pitched 22 straight innings in Peoria without allowing a hit is amazing. But still, it’s Peoria. Let’s not get too excited about it. You know two players who were absolute Gods in the Midwest League back in their day? Corey Patterson and Felix Pie.

While we’re talking about Cubs “prospects” let’s pause a minute. Other sites have posters who pretend to be experts on minor league players, and they spend lots of time worrying about who Jim Hendry might trade. Here’s a little secret. If the Cubs had traded every prospect they have had in the last 10 years, how many would have come back to haunt them?

How many Cubs prospects have had any impact on any team in recent years?

Jon Garland — Been a league average pitcher for the White Sox.  Trading him wasn’t the bad part, getting Matt Karchner was.

Kerry Wood – Good when he’s been healthy, not very often.

Mark Prior – One great year, one great almost full year and lots of owies.

Carlos Zambrano – A guy who if you’d traded, you’d be regretting it.

Dontrelle Willis – From 2003 – 2005 he looked like he was going to be a star. His 2005 season was tremendous.  Now he looks like he’s just going to be expensive.

To be fair, those four are a pretty good haul for a farm system, even if only one looks like he’s going to have consistent, prolonged success.

But as far as position players go?

Nothing.

Corey Patterson? Please.

Dave Kelton? Jason Dubois? Pat Cline? Ronny Cedeno? Brendan Harris? Ryan Harvey? Luis Montanez? Brian Dopirak? Brandon Sing?

At this point, their best hopes are Felix Pie and Carlos Marmol. Hey, if Marmol continues to excel, they can point out that he used to be a position player since he came up as a catcher.

If you count Matt Murton (even though he was drafted by the Red Sox) it helps a little. But only a little. He’s a guy who can hit, with little power, and can’t play defense. Yay?

When he traded three pitchers for Juan Pierre, it was a bad trade, but how much would Sergio Mitre, Reynel Pinto and Ricky Nolasco helped the Cubs the past couple of years? They’ve all been hurt since then.

Remember when people were upset that Andy Sisco was let go in the Rule V draft to KC a few years ago? Hendry knew the truth. It didn’t matter who he protected and who he didn’t, they all blew.

Basically, if the Orioles want five guys for Roberts instead of four, give it to them. Who cares? History shows it won’t make a damned bit of difference.

The only way Cubs’ prospects have helped the big club has been in just that way, by trading them. Bobby Hill for E-ramis. Hee Seop Choi for Derrek Lee.

I’m going to stop now. I’m depressing myself. And it’s becoming clearer why the Orioles haven’t picked their four or five guys for Roberts. They probably can’t find anybody to pick.

At least the Cubs have finally started spending money, so they can throw cash at their mistakes. That’s progress.

Guh.  At this point, I hope I’m forgetting a Cubs prospect who made good.  Post it below if I did.