You don’t have to be a deviant gambler to be intrigued by the over/unders the Las Vegas bookmakers have put on each team’s win totals.

The “experts” as Lee Corso so craftily refers to them on Saturday mornings, are pretty good at this.  At least the ones who still have those jobs.  The other ones are buried out there in the desert somewhere.

Of course even the living ones are not immune to getting a number completely wrong.  They missed the boat by a lot last year on a few teams.  They had Atlanta at 4.5 and the Falcons won 11 games.  They had the Packers at 8.5 and Green Bay was a gawdawful 6-10.

But hey, if they were always right, nobody would ever bet.

Besides, you know they made a shitload on that Packer number last year.  The cheese curd inhaling horde in the XXXXL jerseys pounded the over, even without their beloved Brett last year.

Let’s take a look at the over/under numbers for all 32 teams (according to BetUS.com) and I’ll give you my take on it.  Then, if you’re smart you won’t run the other way, you’ll sprint.

The Easy Overs

These are the win totals that you don’t have to overthink to say “Yeah, they can win more than that.”

New Orleans 9

Despite all the injury problems they had last year (and the fact they actually wanted Jeremy Shockey on their team) the best offense in the NFL led them to eight wins.  They’re still the best team in the NFL with a scab Bear QB as their head coach.  They can get you nine, or better yet, more.

New England 11.5

Last year they lost their Hall of Fame quarterback in the first quarter of the first game and turned to a guy who hadn’t started a game since high school, and they won 11 games.  Granted, they played one of the easiest schedules in NFL history, but do you really want to bet against the sweatshirt?  I didn’t think so.

Chicago 8.5

Sure, they had a couple of fluky wins (the Green Bay kick block and the goal line stand against the Eagles), but they had more head scratching losses than that (Greg Olsen fumbling away the Carolina game, the complete pants shitting against Tampa Bay, the last :11 in Atlanta), and have you heard they actually have a quarterback this year?  It’s been in all the papers.

Pissburgh 10.5

They didn’t respond well the last time they tried to follow up a Super Bowl championship, but that time their star QB broke his face when he fell off his motorcycle, this year he stuck to banging crazy hotel employees.

Tennessee 9

I’m with you, the idea of putting your faith in Kerry Collins is frightening, but without the “hook” on this total (it’s just 9, not 9.5) they’d have to have a four win fall off for you to lose this bet.  I can’t see how it can be five.  Oh, wait, I can, it’s called “starting at quarterback, Vince Young.”

The Easy Unders

The teams you just can’t see getting out of their own way.

Buffalo 8.5

They fired their offensive coordinator after the last preseason game because the offense was “too complicated.”  Unless, complicated is a synonym for shitty, this probably isn’t going to help.  I like Dick Jauron a lot.  If I had a laundromat or a Denny’s franchise I’d want him to run it for me.  Come to think of it, the Bills remind me of a laundromat.

Cincinnati 7.5

I have DirecTV and the big boy package with HBO and other channels that will occasionally show women’s bare breasts, so I’ve been able to watch “Hard Knocks” and this number couldn’t be low enough for me to go over it.  Nothing about the way the Bengals are run screams “success!”  The personnel guy only has his job because he was created with Hall of Fame sperm (oh, he’s also the owner), and his daughter is negotiating their player deals because “it’s fun!”  Ugh.

Cleveland 6.5

How laughable is it that lap-band failure Eric Mangini thinks that keeping everyone in the dark over which mediocre QB he’ll start week one is going to give the Browns a tangible edge in week one?  The Browns still haven’t scored a TD in a real game since November 17.  It might be a while before they end that drought.

Detroit 4.5

0-16 last year.  Rookie QB starting week one.  They’d have to win five games for them to pay out for you.  Try not to blow out an Achilles running to the window to pound the under.

St. Louis 5.5

Should it worry Bears fans that the Rams juggernaut that won two games last year supplied you with your left tackle and one of your starting outside linebackers?  Uh…yes.  But how’s that going to help the Rams get six wins?  It’s not.

Tampa Bay 6

Last year they won nine games, only missed the playoffs because of a complete implosion in the second half of their last game and outscored their opponents by 38 points.  But they fired their coach and had to retool the entire staff.  And they’re not going to be good.

The Hard Overs

The ones that remind you why Vegas hasn’t been put out of business by smart guys like us.

Denver 6.5

Bears fans didn’t hate Kyle Orton (in fact we kind of liked him) because he’s not going to lose games for you.  The problem is he’s not going to win them for you very often, either.  Denver’s not a playoff team but could they win seven games?  I think they can.  And I think they can’t.  And I think they can.  Time to start drinking heavily.

Arizona 8.5

I know they almost won the Super Bowl last year, but they were so dominant in the regular season that they posted a winning record (9-7) and outscored their opponents by a point.  But they were helpless as a kitten when they had to cross the Mississippi last year and they do it five times this season.  If they lost all of those, they have to go 9-2 the with the rest of their schedule.  But, they managed to win a playoff game in Carolina last year, so that kind of blows that theory, and one of the five eastern trips is to Detroit.  So I’m going over.

Baltimore 8.5

They had a rookie coach and a rookie QB last year and won 11 games, so winning nine shouldn’t be a big deal this year, right?  Except that they rely so much on their defense, which is a year older and Bart Scott-less.  And the offense might be worse, not better this year.  Still, maybe inexplicably, I’m going with the over.

Dallas 9

You want them to move into their new billion dollar stadium and fall on their faces.  But I’m in the camp that thinks not having TO around, regardless of who’s going to play his spot is a positive.  The Roy Williams they have left should be a star, but he’s not, so that worries you.  Hey, maybe they’ll switch to an offense where whenever there’s not an obvious place for Tony Romo to throw he just whips it off the scoreboard and they get a do over?  Oh, and launching the ever expanding Jessica Simpson can’t hurt, either.  Hell, just getting rid of skeevy Joe Simpson has to be worth a win.

Indianapolis 10

I suppose that because they won 12 games last year despite the fact that Peyton Manning couldn’t bend his right leg until November that 10 should be automatic.  And since Peyton basically coaches the team, losing Tony Dungy probably shouldn’t set them back too much either.  Fine.  Over it is.

Houston 8.5

You like them because they have a good quarterback, the best wide receiver in the game and a good running game.  You fear them because that QB always misses some games and this year it means they go to Rex or “Wrong Way” Orlovsky, and because all they had to do to give themselves a great shot at the playoffs last year was to beat Oakland they didn’t just lose, they got humiliated in week 16.  Then they beat the Bears to knock them out of the playoffs.  Bastards.

Philadelphia 9.5

After all those years of having no weapons on offense for Donovan McNabb, they’ve got some pretty good ones.  This would be an automatic over if a) McNabb weren’t 40 pounds overweight and b) if their defensive coordinator hadn’t died in the offseason.  Still, 10 wins seems pretty reasonable.

San Diego 10.5

The Fighting Whale Vaginas have the talent to win 11 games without a problem, but they also have The Norv in charge.  And how about the whole Shaun Merriman-Tila Tequila omen?  But hey, what great team doesn’t have a mohawked-steroid-abusing-ACL-reconstructed defensive superstar who is dating a bisexual stripper?

Seattle 8

Somebody has to win the NFC West, and you get the feeling that it would have been Seattle again last year if their entire team hadn’t gotten hurt.  But they did, and now the whole thing is being presided over by Jim Mora the Lesser.  Hold your nose and take the over.

Minnesota 9.5

They have the best offensive player in football, a tight end who likes to show his goods to TV cameras in the locker room and two defensive tackles all hopped up on banned substances, so what’s not to like?  Their 38 year old QB didn’t bother to show for training camp, and they are coached by Brad Childress.  Ugh.

Green Bay 9

I already have the Bears going over 8.5 and the Vikings going over 9.5 how can I have the Packers going over the nine?  It helps that Detroit will likely go 0-6 in the division again.  But if any of the “big three” in the NFC North is going to tank, it’s the Packers again.  When your defense is so awful that you fundamentally change everything about it (even where everybody lines up on every play), it’s hard to imagine it’s going to come together in the first year.  Still, I think all three of the good North teams will win 10 games (or more.)  I’m a dope.

New York Giants 10

Here’s the thing.  I think the Giants are going to win 10 games.  If this were 9.5 I’d have put them in the easy overs.  So they have to be 10, don’t they?  Eli still makes me queasy, but I actually am more comfortable with the Giants here than the Eagles.

The Hard Unders

The teams that Vegas can’t wait to steal your money over.

Oakland 5.5

Does anybody have any idea what to expect from the Raiders?  If you told me they’d go 1-15 I wouldn’t doubt you, and if you told me they would go 7-9 I could be convinced.  They have some really talented players, and some guys who have no business cashing an NFL paycheck.  It’s almost as if they are run by a crazy man.

Crazy loses a lot more than it wins.  Under.

Kansas City 6

The Chiefs only won two games last year, so four more is quite a jump.  But they are no longer run by the incompetent Herm Edwards or the megalomaniac Carl Peterson.  I think improvement is coming, just not this much this quick.  Oh and Mike Brown is starting at safety for them, and that ought to last about a week.

San Francisco 7

I love Mike Singletary, and I know they won five of their last seven under him last year.  But I also know those five wins came against the Rams (twice) the Bills, the Jets (not a bad win, there) and the Redskins (on the final day of the season when the Redskins had embarrassingly quit).  So I can see them being better and not duplicating the seven wins they had last season.  In fact, I’m counting on it.

Washington 8

If they’re going to finish over .500 they’re going to need a great season out of Jason Campbell, and they spent all offseason chasing quarterbacks who aren’t Jason Campbell (notably Jay Cutler, Mark Sanchez and Matt Cassel) and that tells me they know he can’t do it.  Under.

Miami 7.5

They won 11 games last year, so to be under they have to win four fewer.  I think they can do it.  They had all the telltale signs of a fluke.  (Think the 2001 Bears.)  They led the NFL in turnover differential, they finished well over .500 despite barely outscoring their opponents (28 points), and just about the time they looked like they were starting to wobble (two point wins over Seattle and Oakland, followed by an ass whupping at New England) they fell on the down mattress of this stretch (Rams, Bills, Niners, Chiefs and Jets) before getting crushed in the playoffs against Baltimore.  Oh, and did I mention they invented a gimmick offense along the way?

Carolina 8.5

This is all about the quarterback.  I know they won 12 games last year, but the way Jake Delhomme fell apart in the playoff loss to Arizona (five picks) caused me to forget the fact he played very well down the regular season stretch.  I could be horribly wrong here, but my initial reaction was a very quick UNDER, so I stuck with it.  It also doesn’t help that their best defensive player is mad he’s still on the team.  That’s never a good thing.

Atlanta 8.5

Another rookie coach, rookie QB tandem that went to the playoffs.  Long term I think the Falcons are in good shape.  But I think a backslide is inevitable.  Especially given the huge workload they foisted on Michael Turner last year.  (I know, it’s not much worse than what the Bears did to Matt Forte…just be quiet, I’m on a roll.)  I just think eight wins are more likely than nine.  Hence the under.

New York Jets 7

The collapse at the end of year wasn’t all Brett Favre.  And I think their receiving corps is worse, Thomas Jones is mad (again) and they’re starting a rookie QB.  No thanks.

Jacksonville 8

They went from 11-5 in 2007 to 5-11 last year.  What’s halfway between those?  8-8.  Smells like a push to me.  Put them wherever you want.