The last weekend of the regular season is supposed to be all about huge games, playoff races going down to the wire, heroes, villains, goats and trying to see just how pink Larry Bowa will become before his head literally explodes. Yet, here we are on the 24th of September and only three playoff spots are up for grabs, and one of those is already a foregone conclusion.

Sure, the Red Sox could still gag on one and, sure, Carlos Guillen might be the Bucky F. Dent for the 21st century, but that’s not going to happen.

That leaves us with four teams in the National League and only two playoff spots left. Let’s take a look at them.

National League Central
Chicago Cubs, 85-72, 1 game lead in the NL Central

Biggest asset: If ever a team remade itself during one season it’s the Cubs. As recently as June, this was still the happy little team that lost lots of games in a pretty ballpark and as long as Sammy Sosa entertained the drunken hoarde with a homer every couple of days, everybody was happy. Those of us who follow the Cubs with near obsession know just how wrong that perception was. But thanks to a few baseballs hurled with malice towards the melons of St. Louis Cardinals pitchers, a lovely profanity filled exchange from dugout to dugout between Dusty Baker and Tony “The Genius” LaRussa, and a 16-6 September record, these Cubs aren’t that lovable. Especially when they are running out their seemingly endless array of pitchers who throw 95-98 miles per hour. Pitching and toughness have become the words of the day in Chicago. It’s a far cry from halter tops and cellphones. Though, there are still plenty of those on hand, too.

Biggest liability: The words, “now pitching, Shawn Estes” don’t exactly create a soothing sound for Cubs fans. In fact, the mere thought that those words might be uttered cause many Cubs fans to try and render their eardrums useless with non-serrated butter knives. But even with a couple of stiffs in the collection (namely Antonio Alfonseca and the aforementioned Estes) the Cubs pitching is not their liability. Even with the additions of every former Pirate that General Manager Jim Hendry could get his hands on (Kenny Lofton, Aramis Ramirez, Randall Simon, Tony Womack, Dave Parker, Mike Easler, Johnny Ray and Pie Traynor) if the Cubs stagger down the stretch, it won’t be because they didn’t pitch well enough, it’ll be because an offense that has improved during the season, still wasn’t good enough. Then again, when Shawn Estes is toeing the rubber for you, no offense is good enough.

Why they’ll win: If someone will kindly wake Peter Gammons from his nap, he’ll be happy to tell us that in the last five years, the teams that Dusty Baker has managed have been eliminated from playoff contention for a total of eleven days. Eleven days in five years. (I’ll have the guys at STATS, Inc. check on this, but I don’t think that counts days in the winter. Just a guess.) Dusty does some crazy things at times. He actually uses Augie Ojeda once and a while, he couldn’t stop writing Lenny Harris on his lineup card until Jim Hendry went ahead and released him, and he says things like “Get Alfonseca up in the bullpen.” But Dusty took over an organization more rife with losers than a midnight showing of the Blade Runner Director’s Cut and in less than one year has them acting like the playoffs are their birthright. Who knew?

Why they’ll lose: The easy answer here is, “because they’re the Cubs.” But that’s stupid and naïve and handsome readers like you don’t buy that stuff. The Cubs have a mediocre offense, play pretty poor defense and apparently granted Sammy Sosa three weeks of paid vacation in September. The day after they grabbed a one-game lead with five to go, they threw caution to the wind and Shawn Estes to the wolves. Even if the “wolves” in this case were the toothless Cincinnati Reds. But if the Reds gum them to death, it won’t be a good sign.

Houston Astros, 84-73, 1 game behind Chicago

Biggest asset: Is this where I’m supposed to give mellifluous praise to Craig Biggio and his brilliant handling of a move from second base to centerfield this year, after his brilliant handling of a move from catcher to second base a few years back? I’m not going to do that, because every time I see Craiggers running around in centerfield he reminds me of a guy trying to drive and read a roadmap at the same time. Hey may get there, but chances are it won’t be pretty and he’ll be late. So instead, I’ll sing the praises of the real reason the Astros win games. Because, this just in: Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, Jeff Kent and Richard Hidalgo are pretty darn good. For whatever reason, Berkman played the first half as though he were in some sort of open-eyed coma, Bagwell was still slowed by his bad shoulder, Kent fell down and broke his wrist while washing his truck (oh, wait, that was last year—this time he fell off what, a lawn chair?) and Hidalgo spent the offseason getting shot! It’s no wonder the Astros got off to a slow start. But in the second half, they put it together. And just in time, because I’m not going to say the Astros abused their bullpen, but they had to install a second phone line down to the bullpen. Thank you! I’ll be here all week!

Biggest liability: It’s Jimy Williams. I don’t care what team Jimy Williams is managing, he’ll always be their biggest liability. You just know that every team has a scouting report on him that says, “Just keep the game close and wait for Jimy to do something hellaciously stupid.” Given the fact that his two best starting pitchers spent most of the season forgetting what made them a good pitcher in the first place (Wade Miller) or grabbing their groin in agony (Roy Oswalt), it’s no wonder that Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner wore a path from the bullpen to the mound. So as we get down the stretch and Lidge, Dotel and Wagner all look like they need a sherpa and some oxygen canisters to scale the pitcher’s mound, you can’t really blame that on Jimy. But let’s do it anyway! It’s fun.

Why they’ll win: They finish the season with four games against the mighty Milwaukee Brewers, a team so devoid of talent that they’d have a hard time winning a five game series against their AA team in Huntsville, Alabama or a three game series against their class A team in Beloit, Wisconsin. But that’s not the real reason, because the Cubs are taking on the Pirates, and Pittsburgh already traded all of their good players to the Cubs, the Red Sox and the Padres. But the key is that the Astros top two pitchers can beat anybody, but the tail end of the rotation isn’t nearly as good. However, match them up against the Brewers, and match the powerful Astros offense up against the Brewers pitching staff and a four game sweep seems like a real possibility.

Why they’ll lose: What kind of an omen is it when you find yourself in a first place tie with six games to go and your most consistent starter can’t get out of the second inning of a huge game? An inning in which you give up 10 runs, while the team you are tied for first place with has sent their second best pitcher out and he’s throwing a no-hitter? Not a good one. The Astros have lost four in a row and five of six, not exactly the kind of momentum you want. That’s bad momentum. You don’t want that. Bad momentum carries your car through the guard rail and over the cliff. Good momentum causes the stripper to lean over too far and onto your lap. Wait, how much of that was out loud?

National League Wild Card
Florida Marlins, 87-70, 2 games ahead of Phillies
Biggest asset: In pennant races, teams are used to playing in raucous environments. They get to the park and the buzz starts the emotions flowing and the adrenaline pumping. You go to Pro Player Park in Miami and the only buzz you hear is coming from a malfunctioning pacemaker in section 107 and the only yelling is coming from a guy whose colostomy bag is too full. OK, that’s not fair. The biggest asset the Marlins have is that they play great defense, don’t need homers to beat you on offense and they’ve got two guys with comic book names (Ugueth Urbina and Braden Looper) to nail the game down for them if they’ve got a lead in the eighth. Even the loss of their best offensive player, Mike Lowell, didn’t slow the Marlins charge down the stretch. Hey, that’s more than one asset isn’t it? See, that’s a good thing.

Biggest liability: If the Marlins had the Phillies schedule the last three games (the Phils play the Braves, while the Marlins play what’s left of the Mets), the Marlins would be in trouble because Braden Looper turns into Jell-o when faced with getting the final three outs of any game against Atlanta. Jeff Conine was acquired to rescue the Marlins’ offense when Lowell was injured. Until last night, when he hit the biggest homer of the year for the Marlins, he’d done nothing. A .211 average with a whopping .380 slugging percentage isn’t exactly the kind of impact a trade deadline guy is supposed to make. A three-run bomb off of a cruising starter in a game that if lost means a tie, but if won means a two game lead is. So now I’m stumped. Not that it’s all that hard to stump me.

Why they’ll win: A two game lead with five to go is the kind of thing the Phillies blow, not overcome, so the Marlins have that going for them. That, and three games against the Mets, who’ve been phoning it in for so long that they’ve exceeded the minutes on their cell plan and are really paying for it now. The emergence of Carl Pavano behind the phenom, Dontrelle Willis and solid, if unspectacular Mark Redman certainly hasn’t hurt, either.

Why they’ll lose: It’s hard to see how they could, but if the Phillies can somehow win the last two games of this current series, anything can happen. I’m not really grasping for straws here am I? Nah. How about this. “Now pitching: Rick Helling.” That’s enough to send you into a season ending tailspin.

Philadelphia Phillies, 85-72, 2 games behind Florida

Bigggest asset: Well, if you take off the ‘et’ the answer is Larry Bowa. Forever, the answer will be Larry Bowa. But, we’re not taking that off. So what is the biggest asset for the Phillies? It’s got to be Jim Thome. Why? Because it says so right here in my “Impact Free Agent” handbook. But it’s hard to dispute the effect Thome has had on the Phillies. He’s a born leader, a studly power hitter and he wears pants so baggy that he looks like he’s got half a loaf in them. What’s not to like? We won’t get into the fact that his contract is so freakishly long and his back problems are just one wild hack from a recurrence. Nah, we’ll just accentuate the positive. Even with the pick up of Kevin Millwood (for former CHiPs star Eric Estrada), Thome’s the reason the Phillies are in it with five days to go.

Biggest liability: The bullpen is three-deep. Meaning any one of three guys can make the lead totally disappear. The biggest offender is the erstwhile closer, Jose Mesa. When your team brings in Mike Williams and he looks like a good alternative, you’ve got problems. Pat Burrell has to make this list, too. He went from a breakout season in 2002 with 37 homers and 116 RBI to a breakdown season where he’s hitting .209 with 21 homers and 64 RBI. Not only has Aubrey Huff of the Devil Rays blown past him as the “best Miami Hurricane” in the big leagues, but Pat is a couple more bad months away from Jorge Fabregas country.

Why they’ll win: All they have to do is win their next five games and they clinch at least a tie. Yeah, I can’t even type that with a straight face. If last night’s loss to the Marlins wasn’t a death knell, it certainly was a kick in the groin. Today they’ll try and catch their breath, stand up straight and restore some dignity. I mean, it’s possible that the Braves could lose their last three games of the season to the Phillies. Right? Sure? Is anybody buying any of this?

Why they’ll lose: Has anyone taken a good, long look into the possibility that the Phillies are so tired of Larry Bowa and his red assed act, that they don’t mind not making the playoffs? Nah, these are highly paid professional athletes. They’re above all that. Besides, they love Larry. He’s a fiery, inspirational leader! Yeah, I can’t type this with a straight face, either. They’re not going to lose because they don’t like Larry, they’re going to lose because they couldn’t take care of the Reds while the Marlins were pulling games out of thin air in Atlanta. It’s that simple. And, isn’t life grand when it’s simple?

So there you have it. It’s obviously going to be the Cubs and the Marlins claiming the last two spots. Or the Astros and Marlins. Or the Cubs and the Phillies. Or something.