As you can see, I’m getting very clever with the headlines.

Intrepid reader Steve Rizzo sent along a link to this job of prognosticating by Mr. Baseball Expert himself, Phil Rogers.

And this is ESPN’s list of the top 50 free agents and their guess as to who will land where.

First, let’s take a look at Phil’s projection for the 2004 Cubs. Look, I know these things are always shots in the dark. The Cubs didn’t even have Mark Prior when he made this prediction. But still, he’s Phil, he’s a dope and he’s fun to mock.

Here’s what he thought next year’s Cubs team would look like:

Lineup
Bobby Hill, 2b
Corey Patterson, cf
Sammy Sosa, rf
Mark Texiera, 3b
Hee Seop Choi, 1b
Rondell White, lf
Luis Montanez, ss
???, c

Rotation
Kerry Wood
Ben Christensen
Jon Lieber
Juan Cruz
Ruben Quevedo

For the purposes of this, let’s be conservative and just bring back the Cubs lineup from last year (because really, deep down, it’s what we all expect).

It means of a possible 13, Phil got five right. That’s not too bad.

Mark Grudzielanek, 2b
Alex Gonzalez, ss
Sammy Sosa, rf
Moises Alou, lf
E-ramis Ramirez, 3b
Corey Patterson, cf
Hee Seop Choi, 1b
Damian Bako, c

Rotation
Kerry Wood
Mark Prior
Carlos Zambrano
Matt Clement
Juan Cruz

But really, you and I and a trained chimp could have figured on Patterson, Sosa, Choi, Wood and Cruz. And even given that, Choi and Cruz are at the whim of Jim Hendry and Dusty Baker. Dusty will want a crappy lefty instead of Juan, and unless Randall Simon is taken away from him, he’s going to spend a lot of time at first base.

What it shows though, is that the Cubs farm system has done a pretty good job. Four of the five who made it are Cubbie farm hands. But this whole lineup isn’t where the hilarity is in this article. Check out these remarks. Remember, this was written on the eve of spring training in 2001, just three years ago.

Through trades and free-agent signings, MacPhail has imported nine veterans. They include catcher Todd Hundley, whose 954 OPS last year is higher than any Cub except Sosa has had since Dave Kingman in ’79; outfielder-first baseman Matt Stairs, whose average OPS over the last five years is 872, and third baseman Bill Mueller, who in San Francisco last year hit second for a team that won 97 games.

This infusion of talent also includes pitchers Tom Gordon, Julian Tavarez, Jason Bere and Jeff Fassero; first baseman-third baseman Ron Coomer and outfielder Todd Dunwoody. Beneath it is the best collection of minor-league talent the Cubs have had in many, many years.

Did he really use the words “infusion of talent” while referring to such luminaries as Matt Stairs, Julian Tavarez, Jason Bere, Jeff Fassero, Ron Coomer and Todd Dunwoody?

Suddenly Baylor has options all over the diamond. The Cubs are two deep in quality catchers with Joe Girardi and Hundley and have a surplus of moving parts both in the outfield and first base, where Mark Grace won’t be the regular for the first time since the Reagan administration.

The Cubs are two deep in quality catchers with Joe Girardi and Hundley? I might wet myelf I keep reading.

I’m not sure what a “surplus of moving parts” is but included Julio Zuleta, Stairs, Gary Matthews, Jr., Damon Buford and Ross Gload.

Baylor’s starting rotation appears set with Jon Lieber, Kevin Tapani, Wood, Tavarez and Bere. There is also help on the horizon with right-hander Jeremi Gonzalez, who is on the verge of completing a slow recovery from Tommy John surgery, and prospects Ruben Quevedo, Joey Nation and Nate Teut. Ben Christensen and Juan Cruz, the prospects with the highest ceilings, are coming fast.

I think we all know the impact that Quevedo, Nation and Teut had. Whoo!

That’s the problem we had then, and unfortunately, might still have. The Cubs system had been so barren for so long that Ruben Quevedo, a fat, Braves castoff seemed like a stud, so did Nation. Todd Dunwoody even seemed like a good idea.

I’m just glad we don’t have to go back to 2001. Ever.

—

Now, about the ESPN Top 50 free agents.

Here’s who they see the Cubs signing from the group.

Mark Grudzielanek, 2b
Kenny Lofton, of
Ivan Rodriguez, c
Ugueth Urbina, rp
Curtis Leskanic, rp

The White Sox?
Fernando Vina, 2b

The Cardinals?
Roberto Alomar, 2b
Greg Maddux, sp
Miguel Batista, sp

The Astros?
Andy Pettite, sp
Jose Mesa, rp

The Yankees?
Bart Colon, sp
Gary Sheffield, of
LaTroy Hawkins, rp
David Wells, sp
Arthur Rhodes, rp

The Red Sox?
Kevin Millwood, sp
Luis Castillo, 2b

Which means, if this happened (not bloody likely) that the Cubs would have the second best haul of the whole offseason. And this lineup.

2b Grudzielanek
c Pudge
rf Sosa
lf Alou
3b E-ramis
cf Patterson
1b Choi/Simon
ss Gonzalez

sp Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Clement, Cruz
rp Borowski, Leskanic, The Farns, Remlinger, Wellemeyer
cp Urbina

They’d also win the pennant. Which, seems so much more likely than it did 12 months ago, now doesn’t it?

I just wonder where the Cardinals would find the money to sign Alomar, Maddux and Batista. Sure, they’re trying to dump Tino and some of his ludicrous salary off on the Devil Rays, but unless they send Jim Edmonds to PetCo…they don’t have the fundage for two of those guys, much less three.

The White Sox think that Ozzie Guillen’s signing will get them the return of Roberto Alomar, but here’s something to think about and perhaps fear. If Dusty Baker can convince Jim Hendry that he can get Roberto Alomar to play hard, the Cubs might well take a flyer on the future Hall of Famer. He’d be a better lead off man than Gruddy, and the Cubs have to worry that Gruddy won’t ever get on base at the clip he did in 2003.

Just how much would it piss off Sox fans if the Cubs stole the guy who was supposed to lead them to the playoffs, and instead had a lower batting average, slugging percentage and on base average for the White Sox than he did the Mets? Of course, the reality exists that perhaps at 35, Alomar’s just plain shot.

In fact, I’m willing to bet that Alomar is just, plain shot. So let’s move on.

Would the Cubs really spend closer’s money on Urbina when they proved what we’ve all known all along, that just about any good relief pitcher (Joe Borowski) can be a good closer? What the Cubs need to do is spend the money ESPN budgeted for them for Urbina on three, good, middle relievers. You figure two of them will pan out and when added to Regular Joe, Farns and Remlinger, you’ve got the potential for a very good bullpen.

What about Pudge? Skeptics still claim that his good season came about not because he was healthy, but because he was hitting for a paycheck. Of his $10 million salary last year, he only made about $2 million during the season. The rest is deferred. It’s the only way the Marlins could afford him, and the main reason they have no chance to sign him now.

He did some things in the playoffs that sent up a red flag to me. He gets lazy with his glove and nearly cost the Marlins the pennant when a bad (but not THAT bad) pitch from Dontrelle Willis went to the screen and scored the Cubs second run. He also kissed Ugy Urbina, which bothered me. But for the most part, his season, and especially postseason hitting approach was beyond impressive. He did what so many players should do. He got tired of teams pitching him outside, so he started lining everything hard to right field. Athletically, he’s still an elite player and while I’m not sure of the Cubs interest in him, there’s very little risk in signing him. He’s not likely to go all Todd Hundley on him, and given the state of the Cubs lineup, catcher’s the lone position in need of a drastic upgrade.

Will Kenny Lofton come back to be a fourth outfielder? I think, given the fact he couldn’t find a team to sign with last spring until nearly March, that Kenny will take the Cubs offer. I’m not saying that once June rolls around that he’ll still be happy being a fourth outfielder, but chances are that something will fall off of Moises Alou by then and Kenny will be playing a lot anyway.