It?s time for Running the Numbers! It?s the column that will be the same pointless drivel, but this time with the implication of being a statistical analysis! It should be fun? This initial column of RTN (See, I can do that well, can?t I?) will focus on the Illinois basketball team.

First, what this year is showing that even for some of the incredible performances he gave last year, Brian Cook was not as highly regarded as he should have been. Even Illinois fans seem to have underestimated his importance to last year?s team. I know I did. We definitely see what this team is without him…

I think the perfect example of Nick Smith’s attitude was when he took a seat on the bench after the technical (He was mouthing off to the official by the way, which was the reason he got it). Bruce Weber came over and seemed to be giving him the basic “Do you know how F’ing stupid that was?!?!?!?” (Which, basically, is what I would have done because I was saying practically the same thing as I watched the game) and Nick just stared to the ceiling like he could care less.

Not to get on a different tangent too much, but I bet the statement Weber gave at the beginning of the season (I can’t quote him exactly here so don’t assume I am) where he basically said that the team should be good and if they weren’t it was because he screwed them up is one he wishes he could have back. Not because its his fault, just because it makes fans that would wish to support him kind of wonder if they should put all the blame on him or not. Also, Weber will probably look at the paper tomorrow and see that if he were still in Carbondale he would have just as good a chance, if not better, of making the tournament at SIU than he does this year at UI. Add in the fact that people have been/will continue to criticize him 100 times more than he would have been criticized in Carbondale and I have to wonder if second thoughts and regrets don’t start entering his thinking. The fact most fans don’t see this team is half as good as they think they are is something he may have to deal with as the Big Ten continues.

Now, for the real beginning of Running the Numbers. Illinois is 12-5. We (Yes, I am way more emotionally attached than I should be) have ten Big Ten games left and then at least one tournament conference game. I think getting to 18 wins should be the goal now. That would ensure a tournament berth in my opinion, although opinions around Champaign put the number of wins that would ensure a tourney berth anywhere from 17 to 20. But I am going to stick with my prediction of 18 wins ensuring an NCAA berth. 17 wins SHOULD get us in but with our lower than normal RPI (Thanks Missouri!) you never know. 16 wins is the wrong side of the bubble, unless our RPI miraculously improves which probably isn’t going to happen.

So, where can Illinois get six wins? Here is the remaining schedule:

1/31/2004 vs Michigan
2/3/2004 at Indiana
2/8/2004 at Minnesota
2/10/2004 vs Michigan State
2/18/2004 vs Wisconsin
2/21/2004 At Penn State
2/25/2004 At Iowa
2/28/2004 vs Northwestern
3/2 or 3/2004 At Purdue
3/6 or 7/2004 At Ohio State

There are six games on this schedule I think Illinois should win, as the teams are playing right now. Michigan, at Minnesota (Toughest road game that I think that we should win), Michigan State, at Penn State, Northwestern, and at Ohio State are those games. That would get us to 18 wins and we can celebrate another NCAA berth. There are two games I think Illinois will definitely lose (At Purdue and at Indiana. Heck the only times we win at Indiana are when Nick Anderson is making shots from halfcourt at the buzzer or Bobby Knight is having a public spat-fest with official Ted Valentine). And, then, the two games that are toss-ups in my mind for the Illini, at Iowa and home against Wisconsin, are left.

The problem with my analysis is that all of the teams we play at home (Games we desperately need) are all teams that will give Illinois the same problems teams like UNC, Providence, and Wisconsin gave us. They all play aggressive half-court perimeter defense, and three of the four have usually good half-court offense (Michigan can be good when they want to be but they are too inconsistent in the half-court most of the time, which is why I think we should beat them). Michigan State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin will also shut down our efforts to make the pace faster, which will mean our half-court offense (Probably the most consistently disappointing aspect of the team so far) will continue to be our test for making the NCAA tournament. I’m not saying anyone should panic, but we need to find a way to six wins in the remainder of the schedule somehow and someway.

To end the RTN portion of this column, I just want to make the general point that Roger Powell is quickly becoming the current-day Robert Archibald of Illini Basketball. Any big games they play really well in, the Fighting Illini seem to automatically lose. Archibald in the infamous ?Referees decide Illinois should get six people fouled out game? against Arizona in the 2001 NCAA tournament, Powell in this year?s games against North Carolina and Wisconsin. Just a note from yours truly on this one.

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Other small points:

Drew Barrymore is making a 2004 election documentary? Excuse me while I go try to burn that tape.

I didn?t know Fox News was advocating gambling on politics.

And, finally, with the way John Kerry is looking here, I guess he REALLY is going to do anything he has to do in order to win in New Hampshire.

No moran picture this time, I hope you are happy folks? Until next time, I hope the snow stops in Champaign-Urbana sometime this decade.