This is the first of two articles I will be doing on the NCAA Tournament. This first article will be on teams I think will be “sleepers” to go a long way into the tournament, and on the teams that I think are “over-rated” and will fall out sooner rather than later. The second article will be on teams I want to see my Illini play and the teams I don’t want to see them play. Of course, you will probably go opposite what I think and win your pools in the next couple weeks, but hey, that’s what I’m here for, right?

THE SLEEPERS

-Syracuse. How can the defending champs be sleepers?

Well, the Orangemen struggled earlier this season, but now they are back on track. Hakim Warrick and Jerry McNamara make a nice inside-outside offensive combination. And the famous 2-3 zone the Orangemen use always confounds teams down the stretch. Syracuse just beat UConn at home on Sunday, and if they can make some noise at the upcoming Big East Tournament, then they won’t necessarily be a sleeper.

-Arizona. Again, how can such a highly-considered program be a sleeper? Well, a team losing eight games in a down Pac-10 year can do that to you. But, Arizona’s talent is undeniable, and Lute Olson will have his team playing well down the stretch. The only question on the Wildcats has to be can they pick up their lackluster effort in time for the NCAA tourney.

-Charlotte. This team has some of the most impressive road wins of the season. The 49ers have won at Syracuse, SIU, Cincinatti, and Louisville. They were 4-2 against the RPI Top 25 before this past week. The one problem Charlotte has is on defense, where they have had games they have given up 92, 102, 96, 91, 90, and 86.

-Vanderbilt. The Commodores have a chance to make noise. Vanderbilt has had some impressive wins, including wins against Florida, Alabama, and possible #1 seed Kentucky. Vandy is 19-8, and probably doesn’t need to even win a game in the SEC Tournament to get into the NCAA’s, although getting one more win would certainly be nice.

-Air Force. My final sleeper, the Falcons have survived a rough start (Losing to Belmont, just like Missouri, and at Auburn by 19, to be 2-2 after the first four games). A loss at Texas Pan American hurts the Falcons (And, if you have never heard of that school I haven’t either so you aren’t alone), but I think the 22-5 record should be good enough for the Mountain West team to get in the NCAA Tournament. And Air Force runs a style very similiar to the old Princeton offensive style, which makes this team a threat to any big conference school it could face in a 5/12 or 4/13 game.

THE OVERRATED

-Florida. Yeah, the Gators have collapsed somewhat already, but there is one reason, and one reason alone, you should avoid Florida at all costs in your pools this season: Billy Donovan. Hopefully, I don’t need to say more.

-Cincinatti. Get them on an off shooting night, and you will beat them. The problem with Cincinatti is their extended defenses will confuse most teams, which may allow the Bearcats to go farther than usual. But, in the last decade or so the Bearcats always seem to end up finishing a round short of where they should, so don’t be surprised if there is a second round exit for a team that should make the Sweet 16.

-North Carolina. This will be everyone’s sleeper pick for the Final Four. Talent-wise, I would agree with those assessments. Chemistry and coaching-wise, I just can’t see it. Sweet 16, maybe, but I’m looking for a second-round departure for the Tar Heels as well.

-Utah State. Don’t let their sparkling record (25-2) fool you. Other than a loss at Utah, and a win by 2 against BYU, the Aggies have officially played absolutely nobody. And Utah State lost to one of those “other” teams (The University of the Pacific, by four). Whatever seed they get (7 to 10 range) will probably be 2 seeds higher than they deserve. Their strength of schedule before last week started was 195. ONE HUNDRED NINTY-FIVE!!! This will be an upset pick for a lot of people, I understand that. But don’t get burnt, pick against the Aggies.

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That’s all I’ve got for this time, next time I will have the Illinois-biased view of teams I want to see and teams I don’t.