They’re still 6 weeks away, but if the playoffs were held now, there would be more than a few surprises – Denver, Memphis and Cleveland would make it, while Toronto, Philly and Portland would not.

Although the actual number of teams with a legitimate chance at the Title remain static, there is a range of intense and interesting battles raging throughout the league as the playoff races, in both Conferences, heat up. Indiana is the only team to have officially clinched their presence in the postseason, and the final makeup is impossible to predict, yet we’re able, without the need to resort to guesses, assumptions and extrapolations, to preview the 2004 NBA Playoffs. If they were being held today.

1 vs 8
IND vs CLE (or TOR or MIA)
Stunningly, thanks to Carlos Boozer, Zyndrunas Ilgauskas and Jeff McInnis, the Cleveland Cavaliers are in the playoffs. For now, anyway. The Cavs have won 5 of their last 6 to vault Toronto into the 8th seed, and they play the Raptors on Wednesday in a game with all manner of playoff ramifications. Now that Wince Carter is back in the lineup, Toronto’s offense may actually be able to match their defense, and they’ll be hard to stop down the stretch. Under Kevin O’Neill, the Raptors are tougher than the meek outfit often witnessed when the battles become physical at this time of year, but their offense is ugly at best and they get nailed on the glass every night. No matter if it’s VC or LeBron or the Heat who ends up making the playoffs, it’ll be a nice story, but Indiana have very quietly amassed the season’s best record, and there’s no way any of these teams have the power to even threaten the newly professional Pacers into another first-round meltdown.

SAC vs DEN
Currently 2? games ahead of the TWolves in the quest to be best of the West, the Kings are at full strength for the first time this season and are a lock for the 1st seed. While on the sideline for the past 4 months, Chris Webber has watched his teammates grow into a viable contender on their own, but will this added class be enough for Sacto to make up for their disappointments of offseasons past? The Nuggets are a fun young team, and, as with LeBron, the league would love Carmelo to play in May. But Denver will need to overcome a tough schedule to close the season – plus hold off challenges from the impressive Utah and the up-and-down Trail Blazers – in order to go up against Webber, Stojakovic, Bibby et al. Denver have lost their last 3 games and 8 of their last 10, and in the short term, they may actually benefit more from a lottery pick (shooting guard, Kiki?) then they would by going 4-0 against the game’s most efficient offensive unit.

2 vs 7
NJN vs BOS
It’s hard to believe that just 6 weeks ago, only 1 game separated these 2 teams, both of whom were struggling in their attempts to convince opponents they were still part of the Eastern Conference’s elite. Today, the Nets are a full 11 games ahead of the Celts, and it would be even more if it weren’t for Jason Kidd’s recent knee strain and Boston’s incongruous 5-game win streak, capped by a victory over Minnesota yesterday. Boston have Paul Pierce and a raft of bit pieces, whilst New Jersey simply have no weakness, except perhaps at C, where Jason Collins pales even in comparison to Mark Blount. Still, the Nets have dumped the Celtics in the past 2 playoffs, and if Boston are to continue with their campaign of not tanking so obviously and, to Danny Ainge’s ultimate disgust, do manage to scrape into the 7th seed, they’re going to face nothing but another postseason dismemberment at the hands of the hated but well-drilled Nets.

MIN vs HOU
What a first-round match-up this would be; Yao Ming, Steve Franchise and Jeff Van Gundy locking horns with KG, Spree, Cassell and the rest of the 2003/04 TWolves team which has simply overwhelmed the likes of Dallas and San Antonio on their way to the top of the Midwest Division. Sure, they have to stay there first in order to take the #2 seed, but even if they do, facing Houston – almost certain to be number 7 – isn’t that much easier than finishing 4th and facing the Mavs or the Lakers. Minnesota, and GM Kevin McHale, have deserved every accolade they’ve been given so far this season, and woe betide anyone who goes up against the NBA’s MVP favourite in his current all-dominating mood. However, the Rockets have firepower along with an awesome team defense, and Yao might be just the man to put a 7’6″ dent in the dreams of this TWolves team which, for the first time in their playoff history, is not just making up the numbers.

3 vs 6
DET vs NYK
Since adding Rasheed Wallace on the 19th Feb, Detroit have gone on a 7-3 surge and re-gained the 2nd best record in the Conference, which is also the fight for home court against New Jersey in the second round. Somewhat surprisingly, Wallace’s addition has had more of a transformation defensively than offensively, with the Pistons holding opponents to an amazing 79.3ppg over this span. Larry Brown’s teams are always well prepared come playoff time, and if they were up against anybody except these New York Knicks, they’d be easy first-round winners. But the Knicks, thanks to Marbury alone, are able to win playoff games. They have the outside shooting to trouble Detroit’s D, and when Mutombo comes back to full strength they’ll have the muscle to battle the Wallaces in the paint, not to mention a pretty good defense of their own. Still, the Knicks currently have 5 teams within 3 games of them in the playoff race, and may finish anywhere from 11th to 5th.

SAS vs MEM
All season, many of the NBA’s condescending ‘experts’ have been waiting for Memphis’ bubble to burst, but Hubie Brown is smarter than the average coach, let alone the average sportswriter. Who’d have believed just 20 games out from the playoffs the Grizzlies would be just 1 win behind the Dallas Mavericks? Whether or not they are able to stay in 6th place isn’t the issue – the Grizz will make the playoffs, which is the culmination of a singularly brilliant coaching effort. Similarly, it doesn’t matter where San Antonio ultimately finish; assuming Tim Duncan’s knee is 100% they’ll be a threat all the way to the final play of their final game. Both Memphis and San Antone play with a high basketball IQ, and if this first-round showdown were to eventuate, there’s not much doubt the Spurs and their experience, chemistry and under-rated defense would come through. But Memphis are deep enough, balanced enough and wise enough to belong at this level, even for just 4 games.

4 vs 5
NOR vs MIL
Although both teams are even in the standings on 33-30, New Orleans have by far the easier run home with just 5 of their final 19 games against teams with plus-.500 records. Under new coach Tim Floyd, the Bugs have seemingly plateau’d this season, content to win often and lose occasionally, always staying afloat despite the inevitable injuries to Jamaal Mashburn. A rarity in the Eastern Conference, New Orleans have muscle to burn, but, embarrassingly for a team with an elite point guard, shoot a terrible percentage from the floor. On paper, the Hornets would trounce Milwaukee, but as Terry Porter’s patchwork but exceedingly impressive crew has shown this season, games played in real life can have a vastly different result. The Bucks are 7-3 in games decided by 4 or less, and they have the 2nd best home record in the Conference, but the health of rookie phenom TJ Ford will ultimately hold the key to Milwaukee’s season.

LAL vs DAL
The West’s 4 vs 5 series will by far be the premier match-up of the first round, even if it’s not Lakers and the Mavs, which it hopefully will. Depending on how strong LA prove to be without Kobe over the next month, they may be reach as high as 3rd or else drop as low as 6th, whilst Dallas, currently one game behind LA, have the game’s best home record and desperately need the 3rd or 4th seed to be any chance of going further. A Dallas/LA series, with the Mavs having home court, would be awesome and may make Mark Cuban soil his pants – in a good way. But the Lakers, when everyone’s available, are quite simply the most dominant team in the L. They lack depth and their FT shooting remains a concern, but in a 7 game series, it’s going to take an opponent with ultimate self-belief, quite independent of any ball-playing skills, to be able to beat them.