One of the things I detest more than just about anything else is the dreaded hot take.
Well, hold onto your butts, because I’m about to serve one up and it’s pipin’ hot!
Cubs pitcher Jon Lester is going to have to learn to throw the fucking ball to first base.
As those of you who have visited these parts in the past know, there are few players in the history of the world that I have more man love for than Greggie Maddux. Â During his illustrious career, Maddux showed a complete disdain for holding baserunners, throwing over to first or basically giving two shits if they stole a base on him.
So, if the Hall of Famer deemed basestealing to be overrated, who is Jon Lester to argue?
Well, Lester’s inability to throw the ball to first is not purely limited to pick off throws. Â Where Greggie was a an 18-time Gold Glove winner1, Lester is so in his head about throwing to any base other than home plate that he has taken to underhanding throws from as far as 60 feet. Â Short of hiring Jennie Finch to teach him to throw underhand that far, it’s going to cost him and the Cubs.
For whatever reason, baserunners traditionally hadn’t run wild on Lester.  In fact, until last year, he wasn’t even among the league leaders in stolen bases allowed.  For example, in 2014–a season in which he didn’t attempt a single pickoff throw to any base–Lester only allowed 16 stolen bases.  That was 25th in baseball, but also less than half as many as the league leader (and former Cubs immortal) Scott Feldman, and that number wouldn’t even have led the Red Sox, as new Cubs teammate John Lackey allowed 17.
But, Lester finished that season in Oakland, and faced the Royals in the Wild Card Game and they did run wild on him.  When former Cub rookie of the year Geovany Soto had to leave the game in the second inning after the Royals had stolen a base, the battery of Lester and Derrek Norris allowed a couple more stolen bases.  Big deal.  The Royals ran wild on Norris.  After Lester left Norris allowed FIVE more stolen bases.
But it wasn’t just that Lester allowed three stolen bases, it was that he looked like he thought he should throw over to first, but didn’t want to risk it.
That Lester had gone an entire season without a single pickoff throw seemed like a fun fact that offseason.
And then, the Cardinals faced him on opening night in 2015 and things got uncomfortable, quickly. Â Lester didn’t make it out of the fifth inning, but the Cardinals attempted four steals off of him. Â They were successful three times. Â Even worse when he finally did try to throw to first it had the hangtime of a good Maury Buford punt.
Because it happened on an ESPN Sunday Night Game, and everything that happens during one of those broadcasts is suddenly a big f’ing deal, it became a national conversation.
Lester ended up leading baseball in stolen bases allowed, with 44. Â To his credit, those stolen bases rarely had a big impact on games. Â But his shaky throws on balls hit back to him took on a form of morbid humor.
Most famously was this play early last year against the Padres.
It was a heady play by Lester, as the ball had wedged itself in the webbing of his glove, and by throwing the glove to first he got an out that he otherwise wouldn’t have. Â But it also seems to have been the beginning of him underhanding everything to first base.
And that’s where the worry comes in. Â A good pitcher like Lester can pitch around stolen bases. Â But what if teams just start bunting on him? Â I’m amazed nobody’s tried it yet. Â Why not just order every hitter to attempt at least one bunt on him the first time around the order in a game. Â See what happens.
Maybe it’s instructive to think back to teams who tried to force Lester to throw over to first last year.  The Cardinals were the main one, but not the only one.  Lester seemed to benefit from how uncomfortable runners were when they took larger than normal leads.  They rarely got good jumps when they eventually did try to run, which negated the fact that they had taken two or three extra steps on their lead.
But yesterday in his Cacti League debut, Lester threw the ball pretty well, especially for his first start of the spring, and gave up six runs because he botched two easy defensive plays. Â Given that he also doesn’t help himself at the plate, as he’s one of the worst hitters in baseball history, for a guy who is one of baseball’s best pitchers, his game is full of holes.
Especially when you consider how absurd it is that a guy who makes a living2 based on his ability to throw a baseball past guys holding bats, with astonishing accuracy, can’t throw to first base.
Maybe he should just go through a full wind up after he fields a bunt and throws to first?
Because of his inability to hold runners or field bunts, the Cubs always pair him with his old buddy–and their best defensive catcher–David Ross. Â Even in a loaded Cubs lineup that makes the bottom of the order pretty bad, and extremely bald.
It’s March. Â There are 23 days of spring training left. Â This isn’t anything that can be fixed in three weeks, but even if they could simply get their second best starting pitcher to throw the ball to first base like an adult, well, that would be a step in the right direction.
