Cubs Preview: The pitching is deeper than Nietzsche

I’ll admit that I don’t understand how a guy who makes a living by being super-proficient at throwing a baseball past professional baseball hitters can’t make a routine throw to first base.  I’ll also admit that I’m beyond tired of talking, writing and thinking about it.  I personally do not care if Jon Lester ever throws a baseball to first for the rest of his life.  Just worry about the hitters and that shit will take care of itself.¹So let’s worry about other Jon Lester stuff.  Did you hear that he has a bone chip in his elbow, which Gordon Wittenmyer had to take his pants off to write about because he’s so excited about the possibility of it dislodging during a playoff game and tearing Lester’s arm off Dave Dravecky-style so that it flies into the mercifully extended safety netting?  Yeah, I don’t care about that, either.

Here’s what I do care about.  Jon Lester’s really good, guys.  He just is.  His season last year was not disappointing, and the only people who think it was are the ones who were hung up on some bad early season starts, his inability to throw to first and his inability to hit.  Because his first half “struggles” still ended up with him sporting a 3.59 ERA in 18 starts, and in the second half he had a 3.09 ERA.

BUT THAT’S NOT WORTH $155 MILLION!

No.  It’s not.  But he also didn’t get paid all that money last year.  He’ll be more comfortable this year, and he’s not dealing with that weird dead arm thing he did last year, and if the Cubs advance a couple of rounds this fall, well…he has the third lowest ERA in World Series history.  So, let’s see if we can put that to the test.

 

Guys, I just got over the whole “Lassie Edmonds was a Cub” thing and now they foist John Lackey on us?

Not only is a mouth breathing red ass, but he’s one who left his first wife when she was in the middle of cancer treatments.

I know he was a value signing, and he’s been really good since he recovered from Tommy John Disease a few years back.  But…ugh.

 

 

So as the All-Star Break rolled around last year, life was pretty good if you were Jason Hammel.  He was out-pitching his contract, he was in the mix for All-Star consideration and the Cubs team he rejoined in the offseason was a lot better than the one he’d been traded away from a year earlier.

And then he pulled something in his leg.

And then he sucked.  Hard.  For the rest of the season.

His first half ERA was 2.84.  His second half ERA was 5.10.  That’s no good.

And then, late in the season, Joe Maddon started yanking Hammel at the first sign of trouble.  Joe had bullpen that was suddenly full of good swing guys like Travis Wood, Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill and watching Hammel piss away leads in the fourth inning wasn’t advisable, or necessary.

And Jason got mad.

And none of us felt sorry for him.

He flamed out spectacularly in two playoff appearances, including the season’s final, torturous game.

He’s healthy now, and he pitched pretty well in the spring, until his last start…and that appearance has us all concerned again.

What should concern Hammel is that a few rough starts early won’t end with him getting yanked in the third or fourth, it’ll end with Adam Warren making the rest of his starts for him.

 

[30 for 30 voice] What if I told you that a team’s fifth starter would post a 3.95 ERA and pitch 180 innings while only allowing 166 hits and 43 walks?

You’d probably think that was pretty good.

Tell Cubs fans that about Kyle Hendricks.

Though, to be fair, he was the fourth starter last year.  If he approximates that season again this year, he’ll probably be the best fifth-starter in baseball (well, I guess it depends on who makes the most starts out of that spot for the Mets).

But because Kyle doesn’t “throw hard” or “look like an athlete” or “look like he could stand up to a stiff breeze on the mound” or “look like he could fend off a wedgie attack from three nine year old boys” we don’t have a lot of confidence in him.

Which really isn’t fair.  At a time when the Cubs organization couldn’t develop any decent pitching, they developed him.  A perfectly serviceable (and many times better than that) starting pitcher.  Hell, they even beat the Cardinals in the playoffs in a game he started (to be fair he didn’t get out of the fifth inning in either of his playoff starts.)

It’s likely that at or near the trade deadline the Cubs will deal for a significant starting pitcher.  Lord knows they have the assets to do it.  If they do, Hendricks is obviously at risk to lose his starting spot.  In fact, in that situation, he probably would likely be in the trade.

But until then, the Cubs could do a lot worse than sending him out every fifth day.  Lord knows they’ve done a lot worse for most of their existence.

Theo Epstein is fond of explaining that bullpens are built in all kinds of ways.  The Cubs bullpen for instance has a former Rule 5 pickup as the closer, a throw in from the Jake Arrieta trade (Pedro) as a key set-up man, two guys from the same trade with the Rangers (Neil Ramirez and Justin Grimm), a former starting pitcher they bought from Pissburgh last year for a dollar (Clayton Richard), a guy the Dodgers waived from their AA team last year (Trevor Cahill), a former Cubs All-Star starter (Travis Wood) and a swingman from the Yankees who they got for Starlin Castro (Adam Warren).

Not a high priced guy in the bunch.²

Of this rag tag bunch, my favorite is Pedro.  Not the least of it is that his crooked hat bothers the shit out of the Cardinals, their fans, and Bob Costas (Just look at it in the headshot.  It’s majestic!).  But also because for as lousy as he was in his final season with the Orioles, he’s been really good for his entire two and a half years with the Cubs.

Last year he pitched great against everybody but the Cardinals, and that was going to be a problem.  But then he was on the mound when Addison Russell dove out of nowhere to force Jason Heyward and end a big Cubs win.  Then, after being bad in game one of the NLDS, Pedro got huge outs against the Cardinals in games three and four.

I think I like Pedro best of all because he’s not afraid to let you know he’s excited.  Remember the rare double-fist pump at US Comiskular last year?

This is a game.  It’s supposed to be fun.  It’s nice to see guys act like it.

At times last year there was nobody filthier out of the Cubs bullpen than Justin Grimm.  In fact, the bullpen as a whole suffered when he missed time early last year with an inflamed forearm.

What we’ll all remember of his last year was this:

In the fourth inning of game four of the NLDS, Hammel got yanked after allowing a leadoff walk to Jhonny Peralta.  In came Grimm.  But the great Randal Grichuk reached on an error by Kris Bryant and suddenly the Cardinals had two on and nobody out down 4-2.

What was Grimm doing in a game in the fourth inning?

Well…

Grimm struck out Kolten Wong.

Then Grimm struck out Tony Cruz.

Then Grimm struck out the immortal Tommy Pham.

Peralta and Grichuk never left first and second.

Wrigley went crazy.  The Cubs had brought out a “closer” in the fourth inning to snuff out a rally.

The Cubs were treating an elimination game like one.  Welcome to the world of big boy baseball.

Nobody gave much thought to the Cubs acquisition of Trevor Cahill last summer.  Big Trev wasn’t pitching well for the Dodgers in AA, and was released, the Barves picked him up, he pitched lousy for them, they dumped him and the Cubs scooped him up.

Whatever voodoo magic Chris Bosio worked on Cahill, certainly worked, as he quickly became one of their most consistent relievers.  And there he was, in the playoffs, being counted on to get big outs.

Pitching out of the bullpen, his velocity improved and so did his sinker, and he used that to incredible success.

The narrative of players signing for less (started by Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist) continued when Bosio told reporters at the Cubs Convention that Cahill turned down a two year deal from Pissburgh to stay with the Cubs.

When asked, Cahill basically said, “What?  No way am I that stupid.”

But why should the truth get in the way of a good story?

Starlin Castro’s descent below mediocrity last summer was sad for a number of reasons.  First, most of us really like Starlin and it sucked to see him playing so poorly.  Second, it was hurting the Cubs.  Third, it was killing any trade value he might have had.

The Cubs tried to trade him at the deadline and nobody wanted him.

Then, Starlin moved to second base, cleared his head and starting raking.  And while other teams weren’t going to completely forget Starlin’s awful May, June and July, he at least had some value.

The Yankees took him to plug into second base with his new best friend, Didi Gregorious at short, and the Cubs got back not just a serviceable pitcher in Adam Warren, but a damned good one.  He split time the last couple of years between the Yankees rotation and the bullpen, doing well in both roles.  He gives the Cubs more depth in the ‘pen, and a safety net for when Jason Hammel implodes.

And, I wasn’t kidding about Starlin and Didi:

 

Fresh off an All-Star game appearance in 2013³ as a starting pitcher, Travis wasn’t really very good in 2014.  He started 2015 bad, too, and after six mostly unsuccessful starts he was banished to the bullpen.

Where he was really good.  Just like Big Trev, when used in shorter stints, Travis was able to throw harder, which set up his breaking stuff better, which suddenly made him a real weapon in the bullpen.

For the year he went 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA in nine starts, but 3-2 with a 2.95 in 45 relief appearances.  He even picked up four saves and didn’t allow a run when pitching in a save situation.

Given his hairy and often disheveled appearance, I was concerned that when the Cubs told Travis he had to “move to the bullpen” that he took it literally and was actually living in the bullpen.  Apparently, that was not the case.

This year he shaved his beard and his head, and it’s…well, it’s not a good look.  But by October he’ll look like the bassist in a Foghat tribute band.  Just the way we like him.

The Cubs really did buy Clayton from Pissburgh for a dollar.  A dollar.  In July.  In a pennant race.  When both teams were fighting for the same spot.  That shows how much the Pirates valued Clayton.

But for the Cubs, he was a godsend.  He ended up making 23 appearances, being waived twice, making three starts, making the playoff roster, and striking out Jason Heyward in a huge spot in those playoffs.  His biggest role late in the season was to be “chained” to Dan Haren and/or Jason Hammel to come in for multiple innings when one of them shit the bed.

By the end of the season, he was also a very effective LOOGY.  He parlayed a short audition last year into two more stints with the Cubs during the season, to the postseason and now to a full-time job in the bullpen this season.

What a country.