It’s Easter, which means the NBA Playoff races are hotting up, and over the next 4 weeks the battles for the final, critical, rankings of season 2004/05 – both postseason and lottery – will be intense.

However, just to spoil all the fun, the top 8 teams have virtually been determined in the Western Conference. The only questions remain how close the Lakers and TWolves will get to the 8th spot before giving up and tanking, and whether Tim Duncan’s injury will slide the Spurs all the way down to the 3rd seed – from first less than a week ago. With LA’s loss in Denver last Thursday, the Lakers have fallen a fatal 6½ games behind the Nuggets with 13 to play, and while Minnesota’s equation is not quite as stark, the reality of their situation is almost within the same perihelion of failure. With Sam Cassell (finally) returning to health and the continuing desperate efforts of the Kevins, the Timberwolves will give it their best shot, and have a relatively favorable stretch run with only 5 of their final 12 games against playoff teams. But Denver have a healthy 3½ game lead, and it will some down to the game in Minneapolis on April 8th that will determine the season series, and thus who previals for the final playoff berth. Nonetheless, Minnesota are almost guaranteed to miss out, and considering both the TWolves and Lakers met in a high quality conference semi final series last year, 2004/05 has represented a startling demise for the ego, and fortune, of both franchises.

This season is Kobe Bryant’s 9th in the NBA and will be the first in which he has missed the playoffs. Not since the lockout in 1998/99 has Kobe failed to win at least 50 games, and this year – currently 32-37 with 8 straight losses – he might not even win 40. No matter what his worst, most suspicious fears might have been when Shaq left for Miami last summer, they surely would not have been this bad. In his heart, he wanted to believe that this would be a year of revival, redemption and respect. This would be the year when he finally made all those Michael Jordan comparisons come true. This would be the year when he would carry his team to the top. This would be the year when the world would realise it was he, and not Shaq, that made the Lakers elite. Instead, it’s been a year of physical injury and emotional stress. No Rudy T, no triangle, no scoring title, no MVP trophy, no playoffs, no ring. But, to look at things on the bright side, at least he’s not in prison for aggravated sexual assault.

As far as the Nuggets are concerned, the past 3 months have been a boon to the career of George Karl, who must have thought his file was stamped “Never to be Employed” after his horrible performance in charge of Team USA back in 2002. That Karl’s tenure has coincided with the return to health of Carmelo Anthony needs to be remembered, as with an appreciation that much of the foundation for the team’s current success was constructed by the Vandeweghe/Bzdelik partnership over the previous 18 months – afterall, they did make the playoffs last season. But the fact remains the Nuggets are playing with more conhesion and purpose (more en-Denvour, if you will) and most importantly more confidence than they were at the beginning of this campaign. And as a result, the impending first round match-up against the Phoenix Suns will be an NBA fan’s dream come true.

Name the owners of the NBA’s 4th best record? Detroit? Dallas? Sacramento? No, it’s Nate MacMillan’s imports and exports up there in Seattle. Considering this team missed the playoffs by a wide berth last season, it’s been a magnificent achievement to not just start strong but to sustain and consolidate their high level of play throughout 2004/05. It’s a truism in the NBA that a former players coach the way they played, but in MacMillan’s case he’s the exception to the rule. Instead of shoe-horning Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen into the tenaciously conservative style of basketball that made him a success throughout his own career in the Pacific Northwest, MacMillan has instead released the leash and given them a license to play. It’s almost as if Rex Chapman is coaching the 48-21 Sonics instead. With a rookie point guard and a center rotation that would not have been permitted if Shaq were still in Long Beach, the Sonics promise to surprise come playoff time. For some reason, despite their repeated displays of legitimacy, the league-wide scouting report remains that Seattle are a team over-achieving where in fact they remain consistently, and unwisely, under-rated.

In the East, while the headlines continue to be written almost exclusively about the top 3 teams and LeBron James, it’s the jostling taking place at the bottom of the playoff ladder that is much more intriguing. Indiana, despite no Jermaine O’Neal, no Jamaal Tinsley and no agressive all-round small forward whose name slips my mind, are playing some of their best basketball of the season. For all those who doubt, this is why Rick Carlisle has a job – within league circles, if not the media, he’s a highly rated teacher and tactician. Behind some inspired play from the classy Reggie Miller, usual bench parts Austin Croshere, Jeff Foster, and Anthony Johnson are all stepping up as the Pacers are not just treading water but are astonishingly actually moving forward – all this without 60% of their first choice starting 5. Currently in posession of the 8th playoff seed, do not think Indiana aren’t eying the 7th spot and a first round matchup against the hated Detroit Pistons. Artest or no Artest, it’s a tantalising proposition.

As it stands at the moment, Philadelphia are holding onto the 7th seed, and are level with Indy on percentages; both teams are 3 games ahead of Orlando with the tempramental New Jersey Nets a further half game back. That Philly are fighting for 8th instead of cruising in 3rd is a salient lesson to any GM considering trading a bunch of key contributors for an aging superstar mid-season. Ever since acquiring Chris Webber at the trade deadline, the Sixers have dramatically struggled to establish their chemistry and roations. Which is a pity, since Iverson has had a single-handedly tremendous March (his tirade at the officials after the Chicago game might well have cost him player of the month honors) and youngsters Samuel Dalambert and Andre Iguodala a have really come on of late. Philly need to win to ensure themselves the playoff berth that will keep Webber – not to mention coach Jim O’Brien – in town, and they have just started a tricky 3 game Western road trip before finishing off with 7 of their last 11 games at home.

If the Sixers or Pacers do falter, the Nets are probably better positioned than the chaotic Magic to take advantage. Not that there’s much mileage to be gained in a comprehensive first round exit at the hands of the Miami Heat, but the revenue from 2 additional home games is not to be sneezed at. The Heat continue to power through the league, and not even the white hot Phoenix Suns could outscore them in Good Friday’s battle for the game’s best record. Behind the play of Miami’s big 2, Stan Van Gundy has established a settled and efficient rotation, with formerly unloved players like Damon Jones and Udonis Haslem contributing mightily. But no matter how unguardable Dwyane Wade’s drives to the rim continue to be, Miami has the NBA’s equivalent of Tony Soprano manning the paint, and that’s what makes them so feared. Intimidating simply by his presence, Shaq v2005 is savvy enough to know when take matters into his own hands, and when to simply stand back and direct the rest of his crew to do the damage. Challenge him at your peril. Make no bones about it, no matter who ‘wins’ the battle for the 8th seed, expect Miami to be merciless.

Ever since Doc Rivers took the fall at the beginning of last season, Orlando have continued to make ill-considered front office decisions that have led to them wasting several factors that almost any other team in the league would have been easily able to engineer into a successful campaign. A fit Grant Hill, a powerhouse number 1 pick, and either Tracy McGrady or Steve Francis depending on your stomach and your spine – this should be the core of a playoff contender, at worst. But now with Johnny Davis’ time on the bench mercifully terminated and Francis’ league-imposed vacation now over, the Magic are a team much further away from the 8th seed than the standings indicate. Nothing other than a decisive, and empathetic, management team will end the embarrasing state of flux this team repeatedly finds itself in.

Speaking of embarrasing mismanagement, the 24-44 Portland Trailblazers surprised nobody by firing Maurice Cheeks at the beginning of the month. This marked the official end to the competitive phase of their season, and commenced the teams’ simultaneous quest for lottery positioning and showcasing the fact that Shareef Abdur Rahim is a valuable player for somebody, anybody, please. That the Portland players consistently failed to respond to Cheeks’ leadership may say more about them than about him, but if it weren’t for the rectitude he showed with regard to the National Anthem during the 2003 Playoffs, he wouldn’t have lasted this long. That display of class and integrity remains the highlight of his coaching career, which is a bad thing as well as a good thing. As far as the Blazers are concerned, it’s a perverse situation that their demise from formidable playoff regulars to disjointed also-rans has coincided so directly with the front office’s firm stance on player integrity and behavior. Little wonder Portland brass took so long to get tough with their recidivistic problem children – winning can, for a time at least, cover up a multitude of sins. But now, it’s more a case of nice(r) guys finising last.

The Blazers should soon be overtaken in the standings by the resurgent Golden State Warriors, who are winners of 8 of 15 since adding Baron Davis to their roster. Davis has not only been a god-send in terms of on-court productivity, his professionalism in the locker room has been substantially better than expected and he alone adds a credibility to the Warriors ballclub that, literally overnight, is on the way up. By contrast, the Utah Jazz have their season in tatters – and even before Andrei Kirilenko’s most recent (and season-ending) injury it wasn’t exactly a masterpiece. It’s testament to the respect Jerry Sloan has gained throughout his time serving the game that nary a word has been written, typed or spoken against him despite the sub-standard year he and his team have had. That the Jazz this season (currently 22-47) are a world behind the magnificent competitiveness they displayed last year (42-40) is by no means a reflection on either Sloans’ ability or job security.

Showing they’re far from distracted by the goings-on over in Champaign, the Chicago Bulls continue to win basketball games in their own unique whole-hearted style. With the other night’s win in Boston, the Bulls have jumped Cleveland for the East’s 5th seed, a situation that fans and players in Beantown will be none to happy with. The last thing they want is for LeBron and the Cavs to finish 6th and then go on to get all the calls, and the love, in the first round matchup against the 3rd placed Celts. Boston are by no means assured of finishing first in the Atlantic, but if they do, the currently stumbling Cavs won’t be a pushover. C’s fans still cringe at the way the young and popular Charlotte Hornets rode a wave of positive momentum and officiating to upset the Reggie Lewis-lead Celts back in 1993. Despite the numerous challenges posed by the multi-talented Bulls, who are assured of a postseason appearance after their well publicised playoff drought, Boston would much rather host Chicago than Cleveland when the first round starts on or about April 23rd 2005.