Desipio Message Board

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on October 12, 2018, 08:31:25 AM

Quote from: Saul Goodman on October 11, 2018, 07:54:21 PM

Quote from: Canadouche on October 11, 2018, 06:51:30 PM
Chili Davis.

He touched a lot of people (and made them weakly ground out into the shift)

Who knew a guy who preached line drive hitting wouldn't be a good fit for a lineup of launch angle guys?

Not you, apparently

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on October 26, 2017, 01:49:52 PM

Quote from: SKO on October 26, 2017, 12:34:48 PM
Gary Jones and John Mallee, the Heyward Whisperer.

Chili Davis did a good job in Boston. Last year the Red Sox had 200 fewer Ks than the Cubs.

ehem.

My niece is obsessed with Hamilton so my wife and I decided to make her year by buying her Hamilton tickets (mostly because I'm pretty sure my wife just wanted to see it again). I am not going, however, but the friend who was supposed to go with my wife bailed on her so I am going to be accompanying the two of them up to Chicago because my wife doesn't feel comfortable getting there with our niece all by herself.

So anywho I'm in the city from like noon to four or five Saturday with nothing to do. Anybody wanna do lunch?

Quote from: CBStew on September 24, 2018, 01:56:12 PM

Quote from: Canadouche on September 24, 2018, 09:37:26 AM
the World Series broke my fandom a little bit. I just don't get worked up anymore like I used to.

This happened to me.  I was disappointed after game 7 in 1945.  But I assumed that we would win the Series in the following year.  When we didn't I then assumed we would win the next year.  As you know, things went downhill from there, especially in 1969.  But 2016 changed everything.  I was off the hook.  When they won the Series in 2016 my feeling was more one of relief than elation.  I assume that the Cubs will be a winning team, but the world will keep turning...one way or the other.

Winning in 2016 has made me far less angsty about the playoffs. It is so much easier to accept the cold, random, cruel luck of October when your team already won that lottery once. Weirdly enough I'd get more pissed about the Cubs flat out not winning the division than not winning a division series. I can accept weird shit happening and losing even to those fucking Brewers in a best 3/5 situation, I could not have tolerated fucking away the division over 162 games to either of the two inferior teams chasing them. Losing that NLCS last year didn't even remotely phase me.

Weird, I know, but true.

Quote from: Yeti on August 03, 2018, 11:21:09 AM
What thread is this?

The thread where we get Cole Hamels some better run support by getting rid of Addison Russell.

12th in MLB in WAR among shortstops when you remember Carlos Correa has been hurt and doesn't have enough PA to qualify. So really he's at best the 13th best shortstop in baseball. Which I guess isn't bad since I'm quite sure he's the second best shortstop on his own team.

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on August 02, 2018, 08:35:48 AM
Not a bad way to get his Cub career going - maybe next time his first inning he throws closer to 15 than 30 pitches, but definitely an upgrade over Chatwalk.

He'd have been fine if Elite Shortstop Addison Russell was actually capable of making a routine throw with that rag arm of his. But at least his offense mak--never mind.

when the bases are loaded and you absolutely, positively gotta get an out...Brian Duensing

Quote from: Oleg on July 11, 2018, 12:51:13 PM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on July 11, 2018, 10:57:28 AM

Quote from: SKO on July 11, 2018, 09:20:41 AM

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on July 11, 2018, 08:55:09 AM
3ER or less in 7 out of his last 8 starts. 2 quality starts in a row. his ERA has dropped from a butt-ugly 5.23 to a more respectable 3.96.

It's all coming together...

If you take out the back to back starts wherein he faced a hot as shit Atlanta offense in the middle of a bizarre snowstorm in the 14-10 game and then faced the Rockies at Coors he has a 3.50 ERA in his other 16 starts. He needs to be more efficient and go deeper into games as he's had a lot of five inning starts, but he's been effective most of the time.

The Cubs are currently 10th in the NL with 44 quality starts. It's not just a Quintana issue.

ETA: It's not a Quintana issue at all. Lester and Hendricks each have 9 QS while Q has 8. Next on the list is Mike Montgomery, who didn't start the season as a starter, with 4.

I think what you mean is that this is a feature not a bug.  Over the years, Maddon (probably with data from the FO) has been much faster with pulling starters.  I think it started in the 2015-2016 off-season when they said they'll limit the rotation innings.

Making sure the starters are rested when August-October arrive coupled with the 3rd time through the order data = fewer starter innings.

I certainly don't mind limiting starter innings but I think the goal for most starters should be 6 IP, not 5. And just from watching/observing most games I don't think it's been Joe planning to pull these guys after 5 so much as he knows he has a good bullpen and he goes to them at the first sign of trouble. Which would also be fine but I do fear the bullpen struggling in the second half much as it did last year.

Quote from: Quality Start Machine on July 11, 2018, 08:55:09 AM
3ER or less in 7 out of his last 8 starts. 2 quality starts in a row. his ERA has dropped from a butt-ugly 5.23 to a more respectable 3.96.

It's all coming together...

If you take out the back to back starts wherein he faced a hot as shit Atlanta offense in the middle of a bizarre snowstorm in the 14-10 game and then faced the Rockies at Coors he has a 3.50 ERA in his other 16 starts. He needs to be more efficient and go deeper into games as he's had a lot of five inning starts, but he's been effective most of the time.

DPD but also the Fangraphs projections keep expecting the Brewers to eventually play like the 78 win team the system thought they were at the beginning of the year and while I do think that's more likely to happen than Atlanta falling to earth bc the Brewers are getting stupidly lucky in one run games it would be nice if they'd actually get around to sucking. Stupid bastards.

Quote from: Yeti on July 04, 2018, 03:41:18 PM

Quote from: Tonker on July 04, 2018, 03:02:25 AM
Okay, here's a thing: those Stathead turds at Fangraphs have Washington as favourites to win the NL East:



Not just favourites, in fact, but relatively firm favourites: they're almost half as likely again to win the division as the Braves are.  Okay, so the strength of the remaining schedule for the Nats is advantageous, but only by a couple of wins, and as it stands they're seven games behind the Braves with a run differential of +24 against Atlanta's +81.  I could understand predicting it being a closer-run thing than it is now.  I can't understand how you make Washington firm favourites here - Atlanta has been as good as anybody in the NL* throughout the first half, but somehow they're going to play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way whilst the Nats, a .500 club for 84 games, go on an eighty-game win bender.

The fuck?

*Except the Cubs, natch.

Without diving into it too deep, I'm going to say it's based on individual player projections the rest of the way through. Sure, the Nationals are playing like an 81 win team, but player projections dictate that they're not an 81 win club. I'm sure the Cubs were favored to win the division last year when they were .500 around this time

From what I can tell the Fangraphs projections mostly just take whatever you were projected to do before the season, winning % wise, and project that you do that the rest of the season and then add that to the wins you already banked. So if before the year they expected the Nats to win 95 games (.586) and the Braves to win 75 (.462) even if they haven't played like that to this point, going forward the system still thinks at some point they'll play like the team they were supposed to be and so will the Braves, which in the Braves case would be a massive collapse. Sometimes this is correct, like last year as Yeti says they did, in fact, confidently predict the Cubs would win the division and the Brewers would crash even when the Cubs were sucking early, but other times it's really just the data refusing to accept certain breakouts, etc.

Problem is there's not really any reason to believe the Braves aren't real, for the most part. They're the 2015 Cubs, a collection of young studly guys like Albies and Acuna, their young pitchers are finally playing well after a few years of growing pains, they haven't significantly outperformed their Pythagorean record or whatever. The system may have trouble accepting that they arrived faster than predicted but they're here to stay. I think FG is wrong here and the Nats are in real trouble.

So Chatwood is a mess, Hendricks is in the worst year of his career, Lester's outpitched his peripherals by a significant gap, and Darvish just had another setback in his recovery.

If they can't find a way to get at least 3 good starters going in this mess the talent gap between them and Milwaukee narrows significantly. They may need to trade for some rotation help somehow.

Quote from: Huey Potatohead on June 26, 2018, 09:12:18 PM

Quote from: Saul Goodman on June 26, 2018, 05:11:49 PM
This is a strange feeling, but I think I'm about to go full SKO on Chris Gimenez.

That's not how it works.  "Going full SKO" means shitting on players and teams that don't suck.

I spent most of 2015 railing against David Ross, this is included. The Full SKO just covers a lot of anger.

I'm definitely concerned but he said he's not hurt and again the velocity and stuff would indicate he's not hurt. His mechanics are definitely fucked right now, but I feel like if there's anyone I trust to sort that out it's him. But they need him to get it right quickly.

.....the aristocrats!