The 2008 All-Star weekend will be held in New Orleans, as the NBA attempts to convince itself it did the right thing by returning pro basketball to the bayou.
And in an advance preview of the 57th All-Star Game, it is already possible to forecast who will play, who should play and who won’t play this year (plus, the league recently announced the results of 3rd round of All-Star returns, which helps).
From this distance, it’s clear that the NBA has some serious issues to contend with, as many high profile stars face exclusion from the weekend’s festivities. Online voting closes on Jan 20, so there is enough time for things to change, but even if they do, we have seen enough to know there’s trouble bewing.
EAST
Probable Starters
 F Kevin Garnett – the NBA’s leading vote-getter and undisputed leader of the 29-3 Celtics. Despite the fact his points and boards are the lowest since 97/98, you sure don’t hear anyone in Boston complaining.
 F LeBron James – leading the league in scoring with 29 points per game to go along with 7 rebounds and 8 assists, although it should be noted that when MJ turned 23 years old, he was averaging 37 ppg.
 G Dwyane Wade – has been at less than optimum fitness this year, so this is assuming Riles doesn’t ‘encourage’ him to sit out the entire weekend as he seeks to gain something from Miami’s awful season.
 G Jason Kidd – with the popular Arenas out, Kidd will start and his passing game is ideal for exhibition basketball. Plus, he has recently lifted the Nets up to .500 as a peace-offering to the new front office.
 C Dwight Howard – you may have heard of him – in the top 5 in 4 statistical categories, and the top 10 in 6 (although one of those is personal fouls). The next great superstar of the game, and he just turned 22.
Possible Bench
 1. Chris Bosh – leading the undermanned Raptors in scoring, rebounding and FT%, Bosh is guaranteed to be there.
 2. Paul Pierce – although Ray Allen may miss out, the Truth will definitely make it with his stellar all-round game.
 3. Chauncey Billups – the leader of the league’s 2nd best team, and you can also make a strong case for Rip Hamilton.
 4. Caron Butler – having a career-year keeping the Wiz in playoff contention, plus has the respect of all the coaches.
 5. Joe Johnson – the exciting Hawks deserve a representative, although Josh Smith may actually be better qualified.
 6. Vince Carter – still a hit with the fans, but don’t be surprised if the coaches choose Richard Jefferson instead.
 7. Rashard Lewis – the lack of elite bigs in the East helps him qualify over another guard for the final roster spot.
Other Contenders – Based on their current numbers, you can make a case for Michael Redd, Andre Iguodala or the underappreciated Gerald Wallace – all toiling away on bad teams - to get rewarded. However, if an extra spot does open up through injury it’s more likely to go to Jefferson, Allen, Hamilton or even the impressive Hedo Turkoglu who’s having a terrific season for the Division-leading Magic. I read something somewhere today that suggested Antawn Jamison and Jose Calderon should make it, but that’s a real stretch.
Nonetheless, if the NBA forces the coaches to choose a proper center for the final roster spot, expect Zyndrunas Ilgauskas to get the call (numbers up across the board over a sub-par 2006/07 season), although that’s more of an indication of the overall paucity of bigs in the East. What this also means, of course, is that for the first time in his magnificent 16 year career, it’s apparent that Shaq will not be worthy of appointment to the All-Star game.
WEST
Probable Starters
 F Tim Duncan – continues to be the class of the league despite playing the lowest minutes of his career. Wonder if he informs his teammates that he received more fan votes than Parker and Ginobili combined?
 F Carmelo Anthony – his points are down but his rebounds, assists and blocks are all running at career-highs as George Karl continues to re-engineer the potent Nuggets into one of the league’s top defensive ballclubs.
 G Kobe Bryant – is starting to appreciate that he doesn’t need to score 35 points every night for his team to win. 26.7 seems about right, as the Lakers aim for 50-wins for the first time in the post-Shaq era.
 G Tracy McGrady – despite a knee strain which was expected to keep him out only 2 games, the former NBA scoring leader has missed 7 and counting. If he can’t play on 17th Feb, this opens up a much-needed roster spot.
 C Yao Ming – has averaged 2.5 million votes over the past 3 years, and is guaranteed to start the game despite points and percentages all dipping over last season as coach Adelman’s system takes its time to settle in.
Possible Bench
 1. Steve Nash – surprisingly ranked 4th among guards in the fan voting, but the coaches love him so he’s a lock.
 2. Baron Davis - his Golden State side is a marketing dream for the league, and his clutch game warrants this recognition.
 3. Carlos Boozer – the former 2nd round pick is a throwback 4-man, averaging 23 points on 55% shooting and 11 boards.
 4. Chris Paul – adds another chapter to one the NBA’s budding rivalries by getting voted in ahead of Deron Williams.
 5. Manu Ginobili – deserves to be there for his play this season, but so do Iverson, Parker, Marion and Stoudemire.
 6. Dirk Nowitzki – although it’s not impossible to foresee a scenario where the reigning league MVP fails to qualify.
 7. Brandon Roy – others have legit claims, so it all comes down to how heavily the NBA is promoting the Blazers.
Other Contenders – When this year’s All-Star ballot was first released, the San Antonio Spurs immediately lodged a protest regarding the classification of Tim Duncan as a Center. On this face of it, this was an insignificant, esoteric argument, as Duncan has played in the paint his entire career and whether he’s a PF or a PF/C doesn’t ostensibly matter.
But now, it all makes sense. As indicated above, there are half a dozen all-star caliber players who will miss out this year, and that’s not even mentioning the stellar seasons being put forth by the likes of Josh Howard, Stephen Jackson, Chris Kaman and Tyson Chandler who, let’s face it, aren’t really in serious contention. The Spurs knew this, and they knew that Duncan would risk missing selection altogether if Yao was voted in at C ahead of him, so they went out of their way to get the league to change him to a Forward only.
It’s worked, but you can’t help but wonder if it will eventually backfire on the Spurs. Roster spots are so tight, it’s foreseeable that both Parker and Ginobili could be omitted if the coaches go for, say, Stoudemire and Iverson, or Marion and Deron Williams, instead. One thing’s for sure, no matter who is eventually chosen, there are going to be some very heavily offendered hombres when the final rosters are released.Â
