Cubs trade value rankings – Part I

Apparently some other Internet sportswriter does trade value columns every year on NBA players, but since I don’t read hipster, boutique sports sites, I have no idea about that.  Since we’ve reached the part of the Cubs rebuilding when they are starting to actually accumulate more assets than they can use, it’s probably a good time to get a feel for the trade value each player on the 40 man roster has.

I threw in 10 more guys who are considered prospects but as of yet don’t have to be on the protected roster.

The rankings are figuratively pulled out of my ass, but I did try to factor in all of the important stuff that can hinder or help a guy’s trade value.  Age, performance, projectability, contract status and whether they have the ‘good face’ all are factored in.¹

Today, let’s take a look at numbers 50-21.  There are plenty of interesting guys here, and it’ll save the very best guys for Part II.

50. Edwin Jackson, P

Surprised?  Of course not.  Not only is Edwin one of the oldest guys on the list (31 – which isn’t old), but he’s overpaid, his recent track record is terrible and seemingly doesn’t have a spot on the roster.  Plus, he’s already pitched for every other team in the big leagues already²  If you’re a team who thinks you might be able to get something out of him, why not wait until the Cubs have to inevitably release him, let him claim waivers and make the Cubs pay his contract while you add him for the no-risk price of the veteran minimum?

49. David Ross, C

He is the oldest guy on this list at 54.³ He’s on the roster because he’s prolonged his career as Jon Lester’s personal catcher.  Until the last two years he hasn’t been a terrible hitter–his career OPS+ is 97–and he’s obviously still considered a top defensive catcher.  Hey, you never know, Greg Maddux’s longtime personal catcher in Atlanta (non-Hank White division), Eddie Perez was the NLCS MVP in 1999.  But unless Jon Lester ends up on another team, there’s nobody to trade Ross to.

48. Drake Britton, P

The latest in a long line of Red Sox castoffs to find a job with the Cubs⁴, Britton is in the mix for a lefty reliever job.  He’s had limited big league time so far but he’s been OK in relief.  Until last year he hadn’t been a full-time reliever in the minors, and his numbers weren’t so great (77 hits and 38 walks allowed in 58 innings, and only 37 strikeouts.)  But hey, he went to high school in Tomball, Texas at the same time Jimmy Butler did.  So there’s that.

47. Joe Ortiz, P

Another guy in the mix for lefty reliever is Joe Ortiz.  The Cubs claimed him off waivers this offseason from Texas.  The tiny Ortiz (he’s maybe 5’7) has had more minor league success than Britton, and has been groomed from the age of 16 to be a reliever.  In eight minor league seasons he has averaged almost exactly a strikeout per inning and has more innings pitched than hits.  He also has at times gone by the name Joe Blanco, in a blatant attempt to suck up to Hank.

46. Ryan Sweeney, OF

Injuries and a general lack of power at the plate have always limited Sweeney’s playing time.  He signed a two-year deal after a solid 2013 for the Cubs, and it’s a good thing he did or he wouldn’t be on the roster right now.  Chris Coghlan surpassed him in left and then Arismendy Alcantara took almost all of the center field at bats.  I’m sure Sweeney looks at Jorge Soler and just wants to cry.  He could still beat out Coghlan for the lefty side of the LF platoon, but there’s no playing time to be had with Dexter Fowler in center.  Chances are, Sweeney’s going to be looking for a job after final cuts in April.

45. Matt Szczur, OF

Szczur got his first big league action last year and the outfield has only gotten more crowded since.  A speedy outfielder who nearly made a miraculous ninth inning diving catch to save a Jake Arrieta no-hitter, he doesn’t have any actual or projectable power.  He does have a minor league option left, so he and his new wife can enjoy another summer in lovely Des Moines.

44. Dan Vogelbach, 1B

Vogelbach has worked hard to get into some kind of shape since he’s been a professional player (he went from round to pear) and while his bat looks like it will play in the big leagues, nobody seems to think his glove ever will.  Since the National League doesn’t have the DH and don’t seem to be inclined to add it, any long-term career for Dan is in the other league.  He’ll be part of a trade of some kind the next year or so, but not a big part of it.  Well, other than his pants size.

43. Christian Villanueva, 3B

Vogelbach is a much better hitter than Villanueva, but Villanueva can actually play his position, so I ranked him one higher.  In his short time with the Cubs (he, like half the organization used to be a Ranger) he has seen his position go from the thinnest spot to one of the team’s deepest.  That sound Villanueva heard last summer was the whoosh of Kris Bryant blowing past him.  Mike Olt is even ahead of him (he was in the Rangers’ organization, too) and the Cubs have other options for third (Addison Russell, Arismendy Alcantara and Javy Baez just to name three) they’d put ahead of him, as well.

42. Rafael Lopez, C

Lopez will benefit from the Cubs eventual trade of Welington Castillo because it will have him next in line if anything happens to Miguel Montero or Ross.  He got a taste of the big leagues last year late in the season when Castillo got hurt⁵.  He’s hit well in the minors, but isn’t considered a top prospect. The Cubs keep drafting catchers to build depth in the organization, like Mark Zagunis and Kyle Schwarber.  But maybe the Cubs or another team can find value in a catcher who can get on base.  And Lopez can always try to impress people with the fact he took over for Buster Posey at Florida State.

41. Felix Doubront, P

Doubront had back to back double-digit win seasons in Boston in 2012 and 2013 and is in the mix for the fifth starter job.  He has indicated he doesn’t really want to pitch in the bullpen, but that could very well be where his immediate future with the Cubs is.  Felix would not have made it through waivers which is why the Cubs had to trade Marco Hernandez to get him, so if they decide he’s not their man in the rotation or in the bullpen there should be some market for him this spring.  But not much of one.

40. Pierce Johnson, P

Baseball America is high on Johnson.  They have him ranked as the Cubs 9th best prospect and see some Jake Arrieta qualities in him.  Hopefully that quality isn’t that he’ll tease his current team and then take off after they finally trade him.  Most impact trades that include prospects need pitching prospects in them to make them work.  Johnson is the kind of arm the Cubs haven’t had to dangle to other teams in a while.

39. Corey Black, P

The Cubs ate a lot of money when they sent Alfonso Soriano to the Yankees at the end of 2013, but they did it so they could get an actual prospect back and Black is that guy.  He has the pitch repertoire to potentially be a starter, but most scouts think he’ll become either an outstanding late inning set-up man or a closer.  Not a bad return for a guy the Cubs were running the clock out on.

38. Eric Jokisch, P

If Jokisch has more current value than Black it’s only because he holds a stronger projection to remain a starting pitcher.  Johnson has more upside, but Jokisch has more present day value.  He had a strong season at AA Tennesee last year and has had solid career numbers in the minors.  He’ll hang out in Des Moines waiting for a rash of injuries or a trade.

37. Blake Parker, P 

Parker’s claim to fame was when two years ago, Carlos Marmol blew a save in a game in New York and the Cubs Interwebs went crazy because Dale left him in the game when Parker was ready to go in the bullpen.  It was nonsense, because a) the game didn’t matter and b) Parker’s just a guy.  The Cubs were hoping to squeeze any bit of value out of Marmol, and didn’t.  Parker’s had some big league success, and if the Cubs back end didn’t have the kind of arms it does he’d made a serviceable option.  Chances are his long-term big league future is in another uniform.

36. Dallas Beeler, P

Beeler made two starts for the Cubs last year, and has made steady progress through the system, but he’s about to passed in the organization by a lot of even younger arms.  But he has the look of a guy who gets tossed into a bigger trade and ends up showing value for the team that takes him.

35. Jen-Ho Tseng, P

Tseng, only 20, more than held his own in the Midwest League last year, posting an impressive 85 strikeouts to 15 walks in 105 innings pitched.  He pitched for the Taiwanese national team at 16, and could very well be a quick mover through the Cubs system with a second half stint at AA not out of the question.  Like Johnson, he could be the kind of arm that helps the Cubs make a big deal at the deadline, or he could be counted on to eventually replace whoever they do deal.

34. Mike Olt, 3B

In hindsight ⁶ we probably all trivialized how long it would take Olt to adjust to his eye problems that ruined his 2013 season.  His time with the Cubs was marked by him hitting homers and doubles and striking out…pretty much every other time he batted.  He’s a true third baseman defensively, and can play first and the corner outfield spots in a pinch.  He should get first crack at third base while the Cubs await the deadline to pass to guarantee an extra season of Kris Bryant before free agency, and with Bryant’s ability to stay at third in question, Olt still has a chance to stick there long term.  His return to the Cubs late in the season showed a better approach at the plate, but it was such a small sample that we don’t know if it signaled a real change.

33. Albert Almora, OF

The Cubs top pick in the 2012 draft, Almora has a lot of fans in the Cubs organization and in other organizations.  He’s a high contact hitter who struggles with what Starlin Castro occasionally does.  He can hit just about anything, but doesn’t always wait out counts to get something he can really do damage with.  A slow start in high-A raised some eyebrows, but he was tearing up the Florida State League when he was promoted to AA Tennessee.  Only 20, his time at AA was a mixed bag, but he’ll get a full year there to show what he can do.  The Cubs likely get asked about him a lot, so if they decide he’s not going to be an impact big leaguer, they’d do well to figure that out in time to trade him to somebody who thinks he will be.

32. Junior Lake, OF

Junior has a lot of tools and no toolbox, at least so far.  The Cubs bragged about his approach during winter league, which probably means they’d like to trade him.  He can play all three outfield spots, and came up a shorstop, so Joe Maddon could probably use him at short or second in a pinch⁷.  He has one option left, so they don’t have to deal him by the end of the spring if he isn’t going to make the team.  So they can take their time to decide what to do with Junior.

31. Brian Schlitter, P

When he’s not playing in the Zac Brown Band, Schlitter, the pride of Main South, is a passable reliever.  He pitched 56 mostly league average innings for the Cubs last year.  He’s not a big strikeout pitcher which makes him an exception in the bullpen.  With Joe Maddon looking for reverse platoon righties in case he can’t find two lefties for the bullpen, Schlitter’s .819 OPS against lefties last year kind of disqualifies him from that.

30. Jacob Turner, P

Turner was part of the Cubs asset collection during the waiver period last season.  They snagged him from the Marlins and worked out a trade to get him.  Turner was once such a hot commodity that he made his big league debut for Detroit when he was only 20 and was the key part of the Tigers trade for Anibal Sanchez.  He has had one solid season in the majors (2013 in Miami), but has otherwise struggled, and he did not do much with his six start audition for the Cubs.  They seemingly would like to see him or Dubront win the fifth starter job, and would ideally see the other guy and Travis Wood show enough in the spring to build some value.  The odds of all of that happening are slim.

29. Zac Rosscup, P

Rosscup is the closest thing the Cubs have to a front runner for a lefty reliever spot.  He’s an intriguing guy, because he’s a situational lefty who strikes out a lot of hitters.  In the minors he struck out more than 280 in 240 innings and in two brief big league stints he has struck out 28 men in 20 innings.  But so far those strikeouts have been paired with too many walks.  He’s no kid, at 27, but for some reason lefties tend to be late bloomers.  The Cubs are counting on him to be.⁸

28. Tommy La Stella, 2B

The Cubs traded for La Stella, largely as a hedge against Javy Baez needing more development time at AAA, and because unlike pretty much every one of their young players, La Stella has shown a knack (especially in the minors) for getting on base.  He’s a curious choice for a bench player, given that he’s never played any position other than second base in his professional career, but he’ll undoubtedly see time at third in the spring.  The addition of Dexter Fowler puts Arismendy Alcantara back into the mix for playing time at second, which could further limit La Stella’s chances.  Still, it’s not like having a guy who on base more than 40 percent of the time in the minors is a bad thing.

27. Chris Denorfia, LF

Other than a couple of cups of coffee with the Reds to start his career, Denorfia has played in some pretty big parks (Oakland, San Diego, Seattke), and as such has never shown any real power.  He doesn’t get on base as often as Chris Coghlan, and he’s older.  He’s been traded twice in his career, but never for anybody you’ve ever heard of.

26. Chris Coghlan, LF

The 2009 NL Rookie of the Year had his first good big league season since in 2014.  Either he or Ryan Sweeney will split time with Denorfia in left.  He’s 30, so he’s no kid, and doesn’t hit for much power, and you could envision that if the Cubs are in the race at the trade deadline and want to add a hitter that left field would be a prime spot.  Another solid season from Coghlan could give him some actual value.

25. Tsuyoshi Wada, P

Wada pitched very well for the Cubs after his recall from Iowa in July.  He made 13 starts and kept the Cubs in basically all of them.  He doesn’t strike out or walk many men, despite his Japanese Baseball League nickname of Dr. K.  Wada’s going to make the team, either at the back end of the rotation or in the bullpen.  He was a prize signing of the Orioles out of Japan, but got hurt and never pitched a big league game for them.  The Cubs plucked him off the scrap heap and he looks like a pretty useful part.

24. Travis Wood, P

How did we get here, Travis?  A key part of the Sean Marshall trade in 2012, Wood was an All-Star in 2013 (well, somebody had to be, I guess) and he was just bad last year.  He should be the front-runner to win the fifth starter job, but most around the Cubs think if he has a good spring he’ll be traded.  But a rotation of Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and the 2013 version of Wood, would be pretty formidable.  The biggest difference for Wood from 2013 to 2014 seems to be simply that his hits allowed were up.  His strikeout rate actually increased (as did his walk rate, but not by much).  Could it have been bad luck?  Could it have been good luck from 2013 evening out in 2014?  I guess that’s what we’ll find out this year. If nothing else, it’s at least fun to watch him hit.

23. Billy McKinney, OF

The Cubs got not just one, but two A’s first round picks in the Jeff Samardzija trade.  McKinney can hit, of that, everyone can agree.  What limits his projected impact is that he hasn’t shown the ability to hit for home run power, and he’s not blazing fast.  He can play left or center, and you could see a spot for him on a future Cubs team full of thumpers who need a couple of guys to get on base a lot.  He’ll spend most if not all of the season at AA after raking at Daytona after the trade.

22. CJ Edwards, P

Gee, have you by any chance heard that he’s skinny?  A shoulder injury limited him in 2014, but he is supposedly completely healthy and ready to also spend the season at AA.  The Matt Garza trade has already yielded two important bullpen pieces for the Cubs in Neil Ramirez and Justin Grimm and also got them Olt, but Edwards, should he stay healthy is the prize.  Every hard throwing, skinny, little pitcher gets compared to Pedro Martinez.  Not all of them have a legitimate chance to have at least a little bit of the impact Pedro did.

21. Justin Grimm, P

A starter in Texas, Grimm was exclusively a reliever for the Cubs last year and had a solid season.  Not used to a season-long bullpen workload he struggled in August and September, but still posted good numbers on the season.  He was hard to hit and didn’t walk many, two good things for any reliever.  His value to the Cubs is as a seventh inning pitcher, but other teams could still see him as a starter.  Relievers tend to have up and down seasons, so any team has to have more options than slots.

Next up: The top 20.  And, in stark comparison to what this list would have looked like in previous years, the Cubs top 20 is loaded.

 

1. Not the ‘good face’ shit.  That’s just something asshole scouts think matters and it’s how guys like Brett Jackson and Joe Mather get drafted.
2. Not really, but he’s close, he’s already pitched for the Dodgers, Raymonds, Tigers, D’bags, White Sox, Nationals, Cardinals and Cubs.
3. He’s actually only 38.
4. Non-roster invitee Daniel Bard is on his second tour.
5. But only because he was already on the 40 man roster.
6. Pun intended.
7. A very extreme pinch.
8. Lefties get longer chances than righties, which gives more of them more chances to bloom late.