The NHL and NBA are coming back, and Major League Baseball…well, they can’t get out of their own way, but even they are likely to figure out a way to have some semblance of a season. But the one league so far unaffected by pandemic shut downs is the NFL. Sure, it’s an accident of the calendar, but so far they haven’t missed as much as a practice.
Book makers has responded to pent up betting demand by setting lines on the one sport that they can reasonably get a handle on. They have Week 1 NFL spreads.
It’s comforting to look and see familiar sights like Kansas City -10 over the Texans, New England -6.5 over Miami and since the Bears are lucky enough to open with the Lions, even they are 1.5 point favorites.
But, how can the ‘guys in the desert’ set lines with so many unknown variables?
- Will any team have home field advantage since there might be few or no fans?
- What if a key player tests positive for COVID-19 too close to the game to recover and/or finish quarantine in time?
- How many preseason games–if any–will be played and how much practice will teams get? This will certainly affect teams trying to switch quarterbacks (like the Bears) or teams who changed coaches and are going to get all new offensive schemes (Washington, Carolina, Giants, etc.)
- Will the Rams stadium (the one they’re letting the Chargers play in, too) isn’t done in time? Will they have to play in the parking lot?
- Speaking of the Chargers, should they get a point or two every week because they’re used to playing in front of no fans?
- Who gets a bigger advantage in empty stadiums, offenses who can easily and clearly audible without crowd noise, or defenses who will be able to clearly make their own calls in reaction to offensive audibles.
- If the Chiefs continue their trend of letting other teams score the first three touchdowns in games only to roar back and smoke them, with the lack of their home crowd put a wrench in that dubious, though so far winning strategy?
Now’s the time to shop for a number you like. And then hope that Patrick Mahomes doesn’t wake up on September 10 with a fever.
Or then again, maybe that’s what you do hope for.