A year ago at this time we stared into the abyss. A frightening pandemic was spreading across the world and sports were shutting down every time we looked at our phones. The NBA suspended their season. Baseball went home. College basketball conference tournaments packed up (one of them with a game at halftime) and soon we’d learn that there would be no NCAA Tournament.
Twelve months later we’re dealing with the aftermath of the pandemic (and yes, it’s still around) but things are crawling towards normalcy. One sign of that, is that we have an NCAA Tournament to watch and to bet on.
Now, we didn’t need sports gambling to be legalized state by state to wager on the tournament in years past (wink, wink). Loyola is back, which just reminds me that I cashed four tickets thanks to the Ramblers with their wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Bruce Weber’s Kansas State during their Final Four run in 2018. I knew better but couldn’t help myself, and bet on them to beat Michigan in the Final Four. Oh, well.
Actually, my Michigan bet was a spite bet. In the Elite Eight I had Florida State -4.5 against the Wolverines. In a nip and tuck affair, Michigan led by four in the final seconds and FSU missed a shot. Michigan rebounded and the ensuing FSU foul would mean Duncan Robinson would be shooting two free throws, and PAY ME MY MONEY!
Except Leonard Hamilton told the Seminoles not to foul because, “that guy wasn’t going to miss his free throws.” Aaaaaaaahhhhhhh! That was the point, Leonard. Some of us needed Duncan to make those free throws. Michigan just dribbled out the final seconds of the game. Anyway, in the Final Four I took it out on Michigan and my wallet.
Tip number one: Don’t bet angry.
This year we have an increased vested interest in the tournament as not only are the Illini back in the big dance for the first time since 20131, but Illinois is +933 to win the tournament.
They are the number one seed in the Midwest Region, and the committee didn’t do them many favors. They got cute and set up a potential second round matchup with the Ramblers. Likely number one overall NBA Draft pick Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State is lurking potentially in the round of 16, and Illinois got perhaps the best two seed in the tournament, Houston, in their region. Well, it’s not supposed to be easy. (But it’d be nice if it was.)
The committee was especially cruel to Loyola though, seeding them eight when they’re clearly a top 20 team, and then giving them an awkward matchup with a red hot, defensively minded Georgia Tech team. The Yellow Jackets have won eight games in a row and just won the ACC Tournament. Loyola opened a two point favorite, but I’m leaning towards Tech just winning that game outright.
One team that got a shockingly easy route at least to the round of eight is Iowa. They are a two seed and the three seed in their region is Kansas, who had to go home early from the Big 12 Tournament due to Covid positives, and who could start the tournament without three players. But it’s not just Kansas. Iowa’s second round opponent is likely to be Oregon and if Kansas isn’t full strength, USC2 might be the biggest threat to the Hawkeyes. Granted, it could be fun to see USC’s freshman Chris Bosh clone Evan Mobley demonstrate how lead-footed Luka Garza is, but it really seems like Iowa is going to stroll into the regional final before Gonzaga finally slaps them back to earth.
Tip two: Just because you don’t like Iowa doesn’t mean you can’t make money on them (actually, if you bet on them and they lose it’s kind of a win, and if they’re going to win games, you might as well make some cash.)
Georgetown shocked everybody by winning the Big East Tournament and it took those four wins to get them over .500 on the season (13-12). But if Villanova’s Collin Gillespie hadn’t been injured the Hoyas would have been out on day two and relegated to the NIT. Still, once they got rolling they destroyed Creighton in the tournament final 73-48. What are we to make of that?
Well, we could make that it’s tough for a team to rebound from their coach being suspended for telling them to “stay on the plantation” like Creighton’s Greg McDermott was.
I think the play here is that Georgetown actually is much better than that barely over .500 record, and that Villanova is screwed without Gillespie and that Creighton is screwed with McDermott.
The Hoyas were a good shooting team that turned the ball over too much all season, and then suddenly they protected the ball for four games in New York. If that’s real, they’ll win a couple of games in the tournament. They’ve opened as four point favorites over Colorado. Let’s take those points.
Tip three: Sometimes teams really do get good late.
Villanova’s such an obvious upset candidate in their 5-12 matchup (and the 12 seeds always do well anyway) that they’re actually not that much of an upset candidate anymore. Winthrop opened as eight point underdogs and it’s already down to 5.5 in some places. Honestly, I’d lean slightly towards ‘Nova now, but probably just say away. Especially since Ryan Arcidiocano’s little brother is now heavily involved in their backcourt.
Tip four: The public can turn a great upset opportunity into just another game.
Creighton’s a seven point favorite over Cal Santa Barbara, and they should cover that. They also could really benefit from Virginia’s Covid pause, as it’s either UVa or Ohio in round two.
Oh, and whenever I see UCSB I always think of the shirt Vincent Vega had to wear after The Wolf helped him and Jules clean up the car:
But it’s UC Santa Cruz.
Tip five: Never bet on a team because of a t-shirt in a ’90s movie.
So we get to the Illini. They have two of the five best players in the nation in Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. They have a winning senior guard who makes big plays in Trent Frazier. Freshman guard Andre Curbelo is a game changer (in the good way) and plays with no fear. And, they have useful bench parts in Giorgi Bezhanishvili and Da’Monte Williams, and their “other guys” Adam Miller and Jacob Grandison are unafraid to take big shots. It’s a recipe for a very deep tournament run.
If there are things to worry about, there are three.
- Kofi’s free throw shooting – You want your powerful, mobile, game changing 7-foot, 280 pound center in the game at the end to control the boards on both ends, but Kofi’s free throw shooting has regressed to the point where Brad Underwood was having to do offensive/defensive substitutions with him late in the season. In the Illini’s eight game winning streak to end the season Kofi was just 29-58 (50%) from the line. While it’s not horrible, it makes it strategically viable for teams late in games to just foul him, figuring one point is a better outcome per trip than letting Kofi dunk or Ayo swoop in to attack the rim.
- Late game offense – The Illini have the ultimate get out of jail card in Ayo when the shot clock ticks down, or late in the game. He has a proven history of making game winning plays, but they too often are content to just give him the ball and make him figure it out. The Ohio State Big Ten Title Game win should have never gone to overtime. But on three late possessions, all Illinois did was have Ayo dribble around 40 feet from the basket until the shot clock wore down and then take a long jumper. He made one. Illinois is most dangerous when Ayo, Curbelo and Frazier are whipping the ball around, but too often late in games it stops. It’s fixable, but they have to actually do it.
- College basketball refs – It’s impossible for Illinois fans to forget how the refs completely took James Augustine out of the 2005 title game with five terribly weak foul calls on North Carolina’s Sean May. And, we also will never forget the elite eight game against Arizona in 2001 when an absurd flurry of whistles resulted in SIX Illini fouling out. Seriously, six guys fouled out in a 40 minute basketball game. Sergio McClain, Marcus Griffin, Brian Cook, Luke Johnson, Robert Archibald, and Damir Krupalija. Arizona shot FIFTY-SIX free throws and won by six points. It was bullshit. The only thing that keeps my head from exploding 20 years later is that just four seasons after that, Illinois did this to Lute Olson.
All that said, everybody says there are two teams above all other in this tournament, undefeated Gonzaga and a Baylor team that beat Illinois by 13 points back on December 2.
But, there is another. Illinois has not just won eight in a row, they have won 14 of their last 15. They don’t need to take a back seat to anybody.
Tip six: Just because they’re your favorite team doesn’t mean they aren’t really damned good.