Football is almost here and it’s time for us to gird up our loins and look ahead to what we can expect. There is (scientifically speaking) no better way to prepare for a season than by figuring out which team’s win totals are going to go over or under the numbers pushed out by Uncle Brent’s infamous “guys in the desert.” So let’s do that, and there are a few other props to check out, too.
NFC North
Bears – 7.5
UNDER – It’s not just that the Bears are punting the early part of their season with La Grande Orange taking snaps instead of Justin Fields. If only it were that simple. The Bears, regardless of who plays quarterback still have no appetite to establish a running game, have two real receivers on the entire roster (one of whom is actual adult-sized) and a once mighty defense that has lost the will to tackle. Factor in games against the entire NFC West and AFC North, and 7-10 feels…optimistic.
Lions – 4.5
UNDER – The coach wants to bite your knees off, which is weird enough, but they have clearly gone into full rebuild mode (which they should have done years ago), and throwing Jared Goff to the wolves is a strategy designed to draft really high next season, not to try to win many games this year.
Packers – 10
OVER – Vegas clearly wants us to bet the over here. Aaron Rodgers is back for a final ride for a team with 26 regular season wins in the last two seasons and they’re suddenly going to go 9-8? As much as I’d love to see that, I just don’t see it.
Vikings – 8.5
OVER – But I wouldn’t actually bet this. Not only is their weird, overrated quarterback not vaccinated, neither is the backup they drafted in the second round. One close contact positive for either of them and suddenly Fran Tarkenton is back playing QB for two games in November. My favorite part of their dumpster fire of a training camp was just how exasperated Mike Zimmer is with the whole thing. You can’t blame him.
NFC East
Cowboys – 9
UNDER – Nine feels about right, so you might end up with a push, but I think they’re going 8-9. It’s hard to not want to pound the under here after watching Mike McCarthy dodder his way around Hard Knocks for a month of Tuesday nights. But, if Dak Prescott is healthy-ish, their offense will score lots of points, but that’s a big IF. He’s coming off surgery to repair a, “Hey, his foot is pointing the wrong way” break, and then he was held back in camp because of a “tired” arm. Last year they had the mediocre Andy Dalton behind him. The offense was great. Dak got hurt. The offense was terrible. They don’t have anybody even as good as Dalton behind him this year. Plus, their defense is still bad.
Giants – 7
UNDER – This also feels like a push, but if they are 6-10 going into the final week and you need a win from Daniel Jones to keep you from losing money, how are you feeling? Getting Saquon back will help a lot, but honestly, they could use YA Tittle, too.
Eagles – 6.5
OVER – Not by much. Honestly, just don’t bet on this division. Jalen Hurts isn’t good. He’s just not. But at least the Eagles deluded themselves into thinking he was long enough to not draft Justin Fields. Instead they watched him all training camp and went with Gardner Minshew. I think they get to seven wins, but I’m not betting my house on it. Yours, maybe.
Football Team – 8.5
OVER – They made the playoffs with a losing record last year, I think they’ll make it with a barely winning record this year. The upgrade from one legged Alex Smith to the six great games (four mediocre ones, and seven lousy ones) they’ll get from Ryan Fitzpatrick should mean enough points for their very good defense to drag them back to the playoffs again. If he gets hurt they have the great Tyler Heineke. You remember him, he started their playoff game because Alex Smith had a “calf strain.” He has a calf on this thing?
NFC South
Falcons – 7.5
UNDER – Lots of over buzz on this team. New coach brings a coherent offensive system to a team that lost four games in horribly flukey fashion, so why wouldn’t they go over? Because they’re just not that good. Because we act like them losing four big leads last year was the fluke. But what if the fluke was getting the big leads in the first place? Anyway, I’d rather have Arthur Smith than Matt Nagy, but that’s not saying that much.
By the way, this is Arthur. He’s a big, smart boy. He grew up poor on the mean streets of suburban Memphis where his dad had founded some little company named Federal Express.
Panthers – 7.5
OVER – Getting Christian McCaffrey back is huge, and I guess we’ll see how Sam Darnold does with better coaching and more coherent game planning. I’d feel better about the QB prognosticating that Matt Ruhle does if he wasn’t so surprised last year that Teddy Bridgewater couldn’t throw the ball 20 yards in the air last year. But hey, at least their true fans can still hang out and take in the majestic Jerry Richardson statue at the stadium. Wait. What now?
“I’m Mary Poppins, ya’ll!”
Saints – 9
OVER – Even though Drew Brees couldn’t throw the ball half as far as Teddy last year, his ability to know where the ball should go (even if he couldn’t always get it there) will be missed with Famous Jameis chucking it all over the place. But, Jameis will open parts of the offense up that had been closed for them the last few years. I wouldn’t want to try to win a playoff game with him, but I think the Saints can win 10 regular season games with him. Man, think of all those W’s he’ll get eat. (Jameis is fucking weird.)
Buccaneers – 12
OVER – The Super Bowl hangover is real, and honestly, I think Tom Brady might have had his first real hangover ever after last year’s Super Bowl boat parade. They brought everybody back, which hasn’t been done by a championship team in about 40 years. It’s just crazy enough to work. ESPN quarterback elf Dan Orlovsky said he thinks they’ll go 17-0. He’s dumb as shit. But they don’t have to go 17-0 for us to cash a winner.
Have you noticed how much Tom has to say now, about everything? He left the Patriots and will never shut up. Some of it’s not bad, though. Like this take on how referees are using rules to protect offensive players when it should be up to the offense to do it. (Never mind him talking about the time Justin Fields got his helmet knocked into Lake Michigan.)
NFC West
Cardinals – 8.5
UNDER – If we think Nagy is a poor coach with a low ceiling, Kliff Kingsbury’s is so low, no wonder he has a 5’4 quarterback. There’s talent here, but their offensive “system” is in regression and the rest of their division is a beast. They pissed away a playoff spot in the final weeks last year losing key games to teams with backup quarterbacks, and things don’t get better from there. The Barstool Sportsbook in Arizona is just about to open and think of all the opportunities you’ll have to fade Kliff? Overall this launch just in time for the NFL season opener between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys.
The NFL 100 ranked Kyler Murray as the 39th overall player. That seems high. I mean, he is adorable. He looks like an Ewok running around out there. He’s definitely top four in the league in players who could nap in the glove compartment of your car.
Rams – 10.5
OVER – I don’t think enough has been made of the impact having Stafford instead of Goff will make. They played with one hand tied behind their backs on offense the last three years. Stafford’s ready to go Carson Palmer with the Cardinals on the division. It might not last long, but while it lasts it’ll be really good. The biggest fear is that their star studded roster is super top heavy. There’s just no depth, so a few key injuries and they’re screwed.
But they have their priorities right. Sean McVay chewed out the guys last years for somebody taking a dump in the port-a-potty.
49ers – 10.5
OVER – I don’t buy the two quarterback system thing, and I don’t think Kyle Shanahan really intends to use much of it. Trey Lance might be good someday, but right now he’s just a talented running QB with raw passing skills. It’s understandable, because he only played 13 college games. So their best bet in the immediate future is Jimmy Garopollo. Until he gets hurt in week one. Then they’ll just have to run it up everybody’s asses the rest of the way. Which they can. They were decimated by injuries last year. A relatively healthy season gets them back on track.
Remember the time they beat the Packers in the NFC Championship and only had to throw like eight passes?
Seahawks – 10
OVER – Three 10+ win teams in one division? Crazy! But I think it will happen. It’s also why I think the Cardinals are so screwed. Every year people talk about how Russell Wilson is a dark horse MVP candidate and every year he is good but not MVP good. The talk is back this year. Still won’t matter.
And how come Pete Carroll can throw his gum and it’s fine, but Mike Ditka throws it a one fan and he’s in trouble?
AFC North
Ravens – 11
UNDER – At some point they have to pass the ball, and when JK Dobbins went down in the preseason, it means that point is right now. One Lamar Jackson injury and they’re tying to play his style with who? Trey McSorely? Tyler Hundley? Even if Lamar plays all 17 I don’t see them going 12-5. And that’s not even including him needing to go take a dump during the games.
Browns – 10.5
OVER – One of the weirdest takes is that their offense will be worse with Odell Beckham returning. Yes, their offense improved last year after he got hurt, but it was more a case of them not being able to run so many three and four wideout sets because he was gone. Instead they played more with a tight end and two running backs and voila, the play action improved, their balance improved and the offense improved. Plug Odell into that and things will be fine.
Could this be the end of the Factory of Sadness?
Nah.
Bengals – 6.5
UNDER – They’re not very good. They’re not well coached. They can’t block. I’m sure Joe Burrow will win in this league, but it won’t be this year with this team. And Sam Wyche may be dead, but he still isn’t in Cleveland.
Steelers – 8.5
UNDER – I literally heard somebody say, “You think Mike Tomlin’s going to have a losing record with this defense?” I do. They got off to a “how are they doing this” 11-0 start last season then went 1-5 including the playoffs. With this defense. The defense is good. The offense is built on a shaky foundation of a lousy offensive line and a waddling, old, sore armed quarterback.
Why just look at the sadness here shared by these gladiators after last year’s loss to the Browns. Just a couple of regular guys. A two-time accused rapist and Aaron Hernandez’s best friend. You really feel for them.
AFC East
Bills – 11
OVER – Best record in the NFL this regular season. Book it. Run to the window with this bet. How they’ll fare in the playoffs, I have no idea. But that’s not the point of his exercise. (Then again, they do have noted epidemiologists Cole Beasley and Josh Allen on their squad. Uh oh.) Then again, there’s whatever this is!
Dolphins – 9.5
UNDER – They’re on the right track, but this feels like a reversion year. They have to trust Tua more than they did last year, but the division got tough around them, and I wouldn’t be surprised by them being the “team that’s better than their record shows” this season.
And, why don’t they just run this play every time?
Patriots – 9.5
OVER – Shit. It’s just going to be. Look, I don’t think Mac Jones is going to be a star, but he’s going to be good, and that will be enough to resuscitate the Pats from their one year coma. The defense is good, they can run the ball and Mac will run the style of offense they want, which they couldn’t last year with Cam Newton. I’m not giving them a fun link or video, because, fuck them, that’s why.
Oh, fine. Maybe just this short one:
NEVER FORGET!
Jets – 6
UNDER – They’re still shitty. Zach Wilson will be fun, but that fun isn’t likely to result in many wins. My only concern is, are they still getting their goddamned snacks?
AFC South
Texans – 4
UNDER – I think they could be the Jags this year. They might win their opener and then lose out. It’s hard to bet on a team losing 13 or more games, but have you seen this bunch? Just a couple of years ago they looked set. Well, I mean, their coach was a moron, but they had a great young quarterback, a couple of good receivers and the makings of a good defense? And now? That QB is going to be on the roster but not playing because of a slew of awful civil and criminal complaints against him and (mostly, because this is football) because he keeps demanding a trade to get away from their weird evangelist team executive vice president of football operations, Jack Easterby. I mean, just look at this creep.
Colts – 9
OVER – The Carson Wentz thing could be a complete disaster, but I think it’ll work enough to get them over the hump. They are going to start poorly. Their first five games are Seattke, Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. If you see a place that will update this number in-season and it goes down because of a slow start? Pound the over.
But about Carson. He was terrible last year in Philly, so bad that the Bears tried to trade for him in the offseason but even Ryan Pace finally went, “Oh, that’s too much.” He’s already broken a bone in his foot, and he won’t get vaccinated. Honestly, it’s about time this franchise got punished for going from Peyton Manning to one bad year of Curtis Painter (who eventually lost his job to Dan Orlovsky) to Andrew Luck. They deserve Carson.
Jaguars – 6.5
UNDER – Trevor Lawrence is going to be great, and they’ll be better, but this number is begging for a six win improvement with a team whose best players are mostly really young. They’re not going to win seven games.
And, now that fans are back, their mascot can return to streaking during games.
Titans – 9
OVER – The defense isn’t that good and the offense traded Arthur Smith for Julio Jones. But I’d always rather have a great player than a good assistant coach. But they haven’t been the same since Norm Van Brocklin was smoking on the sidelines.
AFC West
Broncos – 8.5
UNDER – They are in a weird waiting year now. They really think they are going to get Aaron Rodgers next season. So they didn’t really fix the QB situation last year (they are now getting the Teddy Bridgewater 20 yard bombs). There is a lot of talent here, but it really seems like it’s going to be a team that hovers around .500, fires its sweatshirt enthusiast head coach and picks a guy Rodgers likes to replace him.
Here’s Vic mic’d up. Can you imagine the stuff they didn’t use? Zzzzzzzzz.
Chiefs – 12.5
UNDER – I wouldn’t bet this, because I think they’re going to go 12-5 and have the second best record in the AFC and I’m not risking money on Patrick Mahomes winning just one more game than I think. People overreact to how bad they were in the Super Bowl. Their offensive line was decimated and their weird game plan didn’t help things. They’ll be fine.
Chargers – 9.5
OVER – I have no idea if Brandon Staley will be a good coach. I do have an idea that the Bears are morons who let him leave for Denver with Vic Fangio and hired Chuck Pagano to run their defense. They lost so many weird games last year and had bad injury luck. There’s a little too much positive buzz around them for my taste, but maybe the fact they have no actual fans will help focus them on just winning?
Here’s a competition between Chargers and Niners quarterbacks (did you know Chase Daniel is a Charger now?) trying to throw balls into a big hoop. Wait until Trey Lance at the end. I hope no cars in the parking lot were damaged.
Raiders – 7
OVER – I think they’ll have a real home field advantage in Vegas now that fans are back. I don’t think this is a playoff team, but I’d lean more towards 8-9 or 9-8 than 7-10 or worse.
Did you guys know that Richie Incognito is still in the league? Or wait, maybe this is James Corden.
Awards
MVP
Favorites – Patrick Mahomes (+500), Aaron Rodgers (+1000), Josh Allen (+1200)
Best value – Dak Prescott (+1800), Matthew Stafford (+1800) Ryan Tannehill (+2800)
Bears – Allen Robinson (+15000), Tarik Cohen (+15000), David Montgomery (+20000), Justin Fields (+20000)
Other – Mitchell Trubisky (+20000)
I think the award is probably Allen’s to lose, given how many points I think the Bills will score this year. But if you want to go beyond the obvious, Stafford’s probably not a bad guy to throw a few bucks on. If the Rams go 13-4 and he puts up 5,000 yards, his redemption becomes a thing sweaty sportswriters love to vote for.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Favorites – Trevor Lawrence (+400), Mac Jones (+600), Zach Wilson (+750), Justin Fields (+750), Trey Lance (+750)
Best value – Fields, Najee Harris (+850), Kyle Pitts (+1000)
Bears – Fields
These rookie awards aren’t great value considering that some of the best ones don’t start right away. But this year it’s hard to foresee anybody but Lawrence or Mac getting much traction unless both of those guys are bad.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Favorites – Micah Parsons (+600), Jamin Davis (+800), Jalen Phillips (+1000)
Best value – Patrick Surtain II (+1200), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (+1400)
Bears – Thomas Graham Jr. (+10000)
The only guy I’d put any money on is Surtain. It’s a good number and he’s really good, plus he’ll get a chance to make the kind of splashy plays (i.e. interceptions for touchdowns) that win votes.
Offensive Player of the Year
Favorites – Patrick Mahomes (+700), Derrick Henry (+700), Christian McCaffrey (+1000)
Best value – Josh Allen (+1500), Tom Brady (+1800), Matthew Stafford (+2200)
Bears – David Montgomery (+6500), Allen Robinson (+6500), Tarik Cohen (+15000), Cole Kmet (+20000), Justin Fields (+20000), Andy Dalton (+25000)
If Allen is the pick at MVP, he sure as hell is the pick here. And somehow you get more value for the lesser award.
Defensive Player of the Year
Favorites – Aaron Donald (+500), Myles Garrett (+500), TJ Watt (+800)
Best value – Devin White (+1800), Darius Leonard (+2000), Xavien Howard (+2000)
Bears – Khalil Mack (+1600), Roquan Smith (+4000), Akiem Hicks (+10000)
Devin White. That’s the pick. Aaron Donald could (and probably should) win this award every year. At some point, writers get tired of voting for the same guy every year. White’s dominant playoffs and Super Bowl left quite an impression. And not just in Drew Brees’ forehead.
Comeback Player of the Year
Favorites – Dak Prescott (+210), Joe Burrow (+700), Saquon Barkley (+700)
Best value – Christian McCaffrey (+800), Jameis Winston (+1000), Michael Thomas (+1200)
Bears – Robert Quinn (+infinity)
If Dak stays upright all season (big if) he wins. If not, Saquon would be a good bet. Either he toils to drag a mediocre Giants team into playoff contention or he’s nobly battling for yards on a team otherwise headed for nowhere.
Coach of the Year
Favorites – Brandon Staley (+1000), Bill Belichick (+1200), Urban Meyer (+1400)
Best value – Belichick, Arthur Smith (+1400), Sean Payton (+1800)
Bears – Matt Nagy (+2200)
Here’s Staley, which is weird, but first year coaches win this award quite a big (cough) Nagy (cough). Ray Rhodes won this once, for chrissakes. The pick here, though, is Belichick. He’ll get extra points because he’s not only coaching all the new guys he’s the GM, so he went out and got them.
Regular Season Most Passing Yards
Favorites – Patrick Mahomes (+350), Dak Prescott (+600), Tom Brady (+650)
Best value – Josh Allen (+850), Matthew Stafford (+1200), Aaron Rodgers (+1400)
Bears – Justin Fields (+25000), Andy Dalton (+25000)
The obvious choices seem to be Mahomes and Allen. It’s Dak (great receivers, bad defense) if he plays all 17 (he won’t.) So I’d be tempted to throw some money at Stafford.
Regular Season Most Passing TDs
Favorites – Patrick Mahomes (+330), Tom Brady (+500), Josh Allen (+750)
Best value – Allen, Aaron Rodgers (+800), Dak Prescott (+1200)
Bears – Justin Fields (+10000)
Rodgers threw eight more TDs than anybody else last year. Do we really think the Packers are going to start calling runs inside the five instead of letting glory boy pad his stats?
Regular Season Most Rushing Yards
Favorites – Derrick Henry (+350), Dalvin Cook (+550), Nick Chubb (+700)
Best value – Saquon Barkley (+1200), Antonio Gibson (+1800), Aaron Jones (+2200)
Bears – David Montgomery (+3000), Justin Fields (+25000), Tarik Cohen (+50000)
I’ll believe the Titans are going to pass more when I see it, so it’s hard to pick against the gigantic Henry. But if Dalvin Cook stays upright all year that’s a pretty good return. It’s sad to see Tarik on these lists even at that ridiculous number. Not only did he not play in any preseason games, he never did as much as run a single sprint during any open portion of practice. His surgery was done less than a year ago, so there’s really no reason to be too alarmed. Yet.
Most Rushing TDs
Favorites – Derrick Henry (+450), Dalvin Cook (+450), Christian McCaffrey (+800)
Best value – Aaron Jones (+1800), Antonio Gibson (+1800), Saquon Barkley (+1800)
Bears – David Montgomery (+5000), Justin Fields (+15000)
Henry led last year but Cook and Alvin Kamara were just one TD (16) behind him. Though nearly half of Kamara’s came in one game when he ran for six in a a 52-33 win over the Vikings in week 16. If you want to hedge against Rodgers passing TDs, you could throw a little on Aaron Jones with the thinking that maybe Green Bay will actually run the ball in close. (They probably won’t, though.)
Most Receiving Yards
Favorites – Calvin Ridley (+750), Justin Jefferson (+850), Stefon Diggs (+850)
Best value – Diggs, Davante Adams (+900), Tyreek Hill (+900)
Bears – Allen Robinson (+2000), Darnell Mooney (+10000), Breshad Perriman (+15000)
Calvin Ridley jumps to the top of the pack without Julio Jones in Atlanta. It’s a good thought as he was just 160 yards behind last year’s leader, Stefon Diggs and in one fewer game. But a better bet? Davante Adams who was even closer to the Diggs and in TWO fewer games. Or, you could just go with Diggs.
Most Receiving TDs
Favorites – Davante Adams (+700), Tyreek Hill (+800), Calvin Ridley (+900)
Best value – Mike Adams (+1400), Amari Cooper (+2000), Ceedee Lamm (+3000)
Bears – Allen Robinson (+3500), Jimmy Graham (+15000), Darnell Mooney (+20000), Breshad Perriman (+20000), Cole Kmet (+20000)
As tempting as it is to bet on Breshad Perriman finally figuring it out on his fifth NFL team in three years, Adams is the pick here.
Most Sacks
Favorites – Aaron Donald (+750), Myles Garrett (+750), TJ Watt (+800)
Best value – Shaquil Barrett (+1200), Brian Burns (+1800), Chase Young (+1800)
Bears – Khalil Mack (+1800), Robert Quinn (+8000), Akiem Hicks (+15000)
Last year TJ Watt had 15, Aaron Donald and Trey Hendrickson had 13.5 and Robert Quinn had two. I honestly think Quinn can make up that difference. Probably just tough luck last year.
Most Team Sacks
Favorites – Football Team (+600), Buccaneers (+650), Steelers (+650)
Best value – Rams (+650), Browns (+1200), Broncos (+1400)
Bears (+5000)
The Bears promise to be more aggressive on defense this year. In 2018, the last year under Vic Fangio they had 50 sacks. Last year they only had 35. Just switching coordinators isn’t going to make up 15 sacks, but not changing wasn’t going to, either. Speaking of Fangio, Bradley Chubb and Von Miller didn’t play a single down together last year, so they might be a good play here.
Most Interceptions Thrown
Favorites – Sam Darnold (+750), Ryan Fitzpatrick (+750), Jared Goff (+800)
Best value – Daniel Jones (+1400), Jameis Winston (+1600), Carson Wentz (+2500)
Bears – Justin Fields (+1600), Andy Dalton (+3500)
The only way Wentz doesn’t “win” this is if he gets hurt or Covid or benched. You know what, all three of those might happen. I think Goff has a shot.
Regular Season Record Breakers
Will any player break the regular season passing yards record (over 5,477.5)
No -250
Yes +190
There’s an extra game and nobody came within 600 yards of this last year, but two years ago, Jameis threw for 5,100 and Dak over 4,900. So, maybe? No. Probably just no.
Will any player break the regular season receiving yards record (over 1,964.5)
No -500
Yes +350
If Allen Robinson does he’ll become the Bears all-time leading receiver, in 70 fewer games than Johnny Morris. Seventy! But no. This is a no.
Will any player break the regular season rushing and receiving TD record (over 31.5)
No -3500
Yes +1200
Maybe Jesper Horsted?
Will any player break the regular season rushing yards record (over 2105.5)
No -1100
Yes +700
Derrick Henry came within 78 yards of this bad boy last year. He’s the eighth player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season (OJ, Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson) but nobody’s ever done it twice.