Desipio Message Board

So, Hendry could've gotten Chris Perez/PTBNL instead of Stevens/Gaub/Archer?

Quote from: PenFoe on June 26, 2009, 05:24:20 PM

Quote from: BH on June 26, 2009, 05:06:06 PM

Quote from: Slak on June 26, 2009, 05:04:53 PM

Quote from: BH on June 26, 2009, 05:04:15 PM
Milton didn't come out after the 6th inning, he hurt again?

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2009/06/did-piniella-and-bradley-have-it-out.html

I hope he called up Steve Stone in the booth after and bitched him out.

Fuck this guy.

I love Milton Bradley and I wish you wouldn't be so mean toward BH.

Detroit does corruption like this; Chicago does corruption like this.

(And by "this," I mean italicized.)

Quote from: Eli on June 25, 2009, 02:35:09 PM

Quote from: Tank on June 25, 2009, 02:13:30 PM
A season OPS+ over 150 easily puts a player among the top 10 batters across baseball each year (often enough top 5; maybe only top 15 or top 20 at the height of the steroid era).

By the same token, a season OPS+ of 200 or above is beyond elite.

So, like, this was pretty good?

Not as good as what Weebs put up in his softball league. Nor what he put up in his 15 year 2K9 career with the sliders set to "Jesus Christ."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCSLR4gsgmA

Quote from: MAD on June 24, 2009, 04:30:45 PM
Christ, is there a website that has all of these or something?

Not that I know of. I pulled them all out of here and rehosted them.

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on June 24, 2009, 04:02:18 PM

Quote from: Gil Gunderson on June 24, 2009, 03:47:55 PM

Quote from: Tank on June 24, 2009, 03:36:27 PM

Quote from: Gil Gunderson on June 24, 2009, 03:22:00 PM
Well, at least it wasn't a gay affair.

Really?

I was hoping it would be all cocaine and hookers and bears.

Maybe a few international gangsters... Awkward questions at customs... Nazi gold.

It could have been a tranny.  I've heard those South American trannies are deceptive to the hetero-eye.

Any bets on how long it'll be before we get a picture?  It was what, 3 days on Spitzer's Swallower?

In other news, Fox says Sanford changed parties.  FOX NEWS: WE OPINE, YOU SUPINE.

I, for one, am shocked.

Quote from: Oleg on June 24, 2009, 03:39:37 PM
Just for context...

OPS+ is adjusted for park factors and position.  It doesn't compare catchers to 3B.  It doesn't matter if you play your home games at Minute Maid or Citi Field.  Also, a 143 OPS+ means that the player has an OPS (remember, it's "adjusted") that 43% than average.

Another thing...OPS+ is a nice, easy stat.  It is by no means a complete stat, and one could argue that no stat by itself should be used in isolation.  Context.

Oleg is right, although you can get a little context by comparing the OPS+ to that of other players at the position.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-burdens-of-being-average/

2007 OPS+ by position
Pos   Mean   Median
C      86     83
1B    115    108
2B     96    100
3B    109    101
SS     94     94
RF    111    105
CF     97     88
LF    107    101

Edit: I misread Oleg's post to say "OPS+ is adjusted for park factors but not position."

Three things, MikeC.

First, what RV said. Second, what Morph said.

Third, Ryan Theriot has had about 100 more PA this year. So, using counting statistics like Runs, RBIs, and HR to draw a comparison between he and Bradley is bad form.

Fourth, what TDubbs said. I know, that's one more than I promised, but I rarely have any reason to agree with him outside of Mom's Basement.

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on June 22, 2009, 02:05:45 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:51:16 PM
No, he wasn't showboating.  First of all, the mere act of throwing the ball into stands is fine, if it's the third out.  It happens all the time.  Secondly, his pose I took as being more of a relief that he caught the ball, since he lost one in the sun just before that catch.

I thought a pose was, by definition, showboating.  When does a pose become showboating?

If his pose was one of relief that he caught the ball (as assumed by Oleg) then would the pose not be self-deprecating? If you show relief for having made the play, then the implication is that you were not confident in your abilities and did not expect to have successfully made the catch. If you don't pose, then you're flaunting your abilities.

Quote from: PenFoe on June 22, 2009, 01:45:55 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:43:43 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:36:39 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:29:23 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:01:32 PM

Quote from: Shooter on June 22, 2009, 12:47:17 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 12:44:49 PM
Maybe Milton just has a thing for the three hole.

Code Select Expand

Split          G GS PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 3rd   19 19 82 74 9 25  5  1  1   7  0  0  6 10  .338  .402  .473  .875 35   3   2  0  0   0   0  .381   133   112
Batting 4th   11 11 44 33 6  5  1  0  1   3  0  0  9  7  .152  .364  .273  .636  9   1   2  0  0   0   0  .160    72    60
Batting 5th   11 11 44 39 6  7  1  0  2   4  0  0  5 10  .179  .273  .359  .632 14   2   0  0  0   1   0  .185    68    60
Batting 6th    3  2  9  9 1  2  0  0  1   2  0  0  0  3  .222  .222  .556  .778  5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .200   103    97
Batting 7th    2  0  2  1 0  1  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000  1   0   0  0  0   0   0 1.000   434   462
Batting 9th    6  0  6  5 0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  3  .000  .167  .000  .167  0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000   -53   -39


He's hit safely in 18 of the 19 games when in the third spot.

Looks like a lot of "luck" -- his BABIP is unusually high when batting 3rd and unusually low when batting 4th and 5th.

I've learned to take BABiP with a grain of salt without having other stats, like line drive %, to go along with it.

Even when Milton was not hitting, he was still walking.  Without looking at the numbers, I would guess his walk rate and K rate held steady in regard to his career.

Seriously, why isn't he hitting 7th more often?  OK, that wasn't serious.

With a little finagling of data from FanGraphs and BBRef, it's possible to approximate his LD% splits across batting order position. This assumes that if he starts in batting order position X, every AB he takes during the game occurs in that batting position. ExpBABIP is estimated at .120 + the LD%. Residual is the difference between the BABIP and ExpBABIP--you might call it "luck." So, Milton's been slightly "lucky" in the third spot, and somewhere between "unlucky" and "really unlucky" everywhere else (although, 6, 7, and 9 are insignificant in terms of sample sizes).

Code Select Expand

BOP LD% BABIP ExpBABIP Residual
3 0.254 0.381 0.374 0.007
4 0.077 0.160 0.197 -0.037
5 0.179 0.185 0.299 -0.114
6 0.167 0.200 0.287 -0.087
7 1.000 1.000 1.120 -0.120
9 0.000 0.000 0.120 -0.120
Total 0.198 0.285 0.318 -0.033

Would have any idea what the average LD% is for a major leaguer?  How about for a third place hitter?  Outfielders?

Overall, this does bode well for Bradley for the rest of the year.

Across all players, average LD% is about 18.7%. I don't know where you'd go to find a split like that across all BOP for all players. Milton's average LD% for his career is 21% with a .321 BABIP. Last year, he put up 25% and .388 respectively.

What's the conclusion from all of this - that he's getting out of a slump? That he hasn't really been slumping?

Conclusion? He was due for a drop-off from last year's numbers, but not on the order of what we've seen so far. Keep slotting him in the three hole with a hot bat behind him at cleanup. And Fork and Chuck are racist.

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on June 22, 2009, 01:41:47 PM
Give Bradley another 300 games and then compare.

You've obviously had time to reach a conclusion, no?

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:36:39 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 01:29:23 PM

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:01:32 PM

Quote from: Shooter on June 22, 2009, 12:47:17 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 12:44:49 PM
Maybe Milton just has a thing for the three hole.

Code Select Expand

Split          G GS PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 3rd   19 19 82 74 9 25  5  1  1   7  0  0  6 10  .338  .402  .473  .875 35   3   2  0  0   0   0  .381   133   112
Batting 4th   11 11 44 33 6  5  1  0  1   3  0  0  9  7  .152  .364  .273  .636  9   1   2  0  0   0   0  .160    72    60
Batting 5th   11 11 44 39 6  7  1  0  2   4  0  0  5 10  .179  .273  .359  .632 14   2   0  0  0   1   0  .185    68    60
Batting 6th    3  2  9  9 1  2  0  0  1   2  0  0  0  3  .222  .222  .556  .778  5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .200   103    97
Batting 7th    2  0  2  1 0  1  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000  1   0   0  0  0   0   0 1.000   434   462
Batting 9th    6  0  6  5 0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  3  .000  .167  .000  .167  0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000   -53   -39


He's hit safely in 18 of the 19 games when in the third spot.

Looks like a lot of "luck" -- his BABIP is unusually high when batting 3rd and unusually low when batting 4th and 5th.

I've learned to take BABiP with a grain of salt without having other stats, like line drive %, to go along with it.

Even when Milton was not hitting, he was still walking.  Without looking at the numbers, I would guess his walk rate and K rate held steady in regard to his career.

Seriously, why isn't he hitting 7th more often?  OK, that wasn't serious.

With a little finagling of data from FanGraphs and BBRef, it's possible to approximate his LD% splits across batting order position. This assumes that if he starts in batting order position X, every AB he takes during the game occurs in that batting position. ExpBABIP is estimated at .120 + the LD%. Residual is the difference between the BABIP and ExpBABIP--you might call it "luck." So, Milton's been slightly "lucky" in the third spot, and somewhere between "unlucky" and "really unlucky" everywhere else (although, 6, 7, and 9 are insignificant in terms of sample sizes).

Code Select Expand

BOP LD% BABIP ExpBABIP Residual
3 0.254 0.381 0.374 0.007
4 0.077 0.160 0.197 -0.037
5 0.179 0.185 0.299 -0.114
6 0.167 0.200 0.287 -0.087
7 1.000 1.000 1.120 -0.120
9 0.000 0.000 0.120 -0.120
Total 0.198 0.285 0.318 -0.033

Would have any idea what the average LD% is for a major leaguer?  How about for a third place hitter?  Outfielders?

Overall, this does bode well for Bradley for the rest of the year.

Across all players, average LD% is about 18.7%. I don't know where you'd go to find a split like that across all BOP for all players. Milton's average LD% for his career is 21% with a .321 BABIP. Last year, he put up 25% and .388 respectively.

Quote from: Oleg on June 22, 2009, 01:01:32 PM

Quote from: Shooter on June 22, 2009, 12:47:17 PM

Quote from: ChuckD on June 22, 2009, 12:44:49 PM
Maybe Milton just has a thing for the three hole.

Code Select Expand

Split          G GS PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 3rd   19 19 82 74 9 25  5  1  1   7  0  0  6 10  .338  .402  .473  .875 35   3   2  0  0   0   0  .381   133   112
Batting 4th   11 11 44 33 6  5  1  0  1   3  0  0  9  7  .152  .364  .273  .636  9   1   2  0  0   0   0  .160    72    60
Batting 5th   11 11 44 39 6  7  1  0  2   4  0  0  5 10  .179  .273  .359  .632 14   2   0  0  0   1   0  .185    68    60
Batting 6th    3  2  9  9 1  2  0  0  1   2  0  0  0  3  .222  .222  .556  .778  5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .200   103    97
Batting 7th    2  0  2  1 0  1  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000  1   0   0  0  0   0   0 1.000   434   462
Batting 9th    6  0  6  5 0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  3  .000  .167  .000  .167  0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000   -53   -39


He's hit safely in 18 of the 19 games when in the third spot.

Looks like a lot of "luck" -- his BABIP is unusually high when batting 3rd and unusually low when batting 4th and 5th.

I've learned to take BABiP with a grain of salt without having other stats, like line drive %, to go along with it.

Even when Milton was not hitting, he was still walking.  Without looking at the numbers, I would guess his walk rate and K rate held steady in regard to his career.

Seriously, why isn't he hitting 7th more often?  OK, that wasn't serious.

With a little finagling of data from FanGraphs and BBRef, it's possible to approximate his LD% splits across batting order position. This assumes that if he starts in batting order position X, every AB he takes during the game occurs in that batting position. ExpBABIP is estimated at .120 + the LD%. Residual is the difference between the BABIP and ExpBABIP--you might call it "luck." So, Milton's been slightly "lucky" in the third spot, and somewhere between "unlucky" and "really unlucky" everywhere else (although, 6, 7, and 9 are insignificant in terms of sample sizes).

BOP LD% BABIP ExpBABIP Residual
3 0.254 0.381 0.374 0.007
4 0.077 0.160 0.197 -0.037
5 0.179 0.185 0.299 -0.114
6 0.167 0.200 0.287 -0.087
7 1.000 1.000 1.120 -0.120
9 0.000 0.000 0.120 -0.120
Total 0.198 0.285 0.318 -0.033

Maybe Milton just has a thing for the three hole.

Split          G GS PA AB R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Batting 3rd   19 19 82 74 9 25  5  1  1   7  0  0  6 10  .338  .402  .473  .875 35   3   2  0  0   0   0  .381   133   112
Batting 4th   11 11 44 33 6  5  1  0  1   3  0  0  9  7  .152  .364  .273  .636  9   1   2  0  0   0   0  .160    72    60
Batting 5th   11 11 44 39 6  7  1  0  2   4  0  0  5 10  .179  .273  .359  .632 14   2   0  0  0   1   0  .185    68    60
Batting 6th    3  2  9  9 1  2  0  0  1   2  0  0  0  3  .222  .222  .556  .778  5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .200   103    97
Batting 7th    2  0  2  1 0  1  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000  1   0   0  0  0   0   0 1.000   434   462
Batting 9th    6  0  6  5 0  0  0  0  0   0  0  0  1  3  .000  .167  .000  .167  0   0   0  0  0   0   0  .000   -53   -39


He's hit safely in 18 of the 19 games when in the third spot. More likely though, with Lee starting to hit, he's probably seeing some better pitches.

Quote from: Weebs on June 18, 2009, 06:53:21 PM
If for some reason any of you, like me, do not currently have an active Gold Membership on Xbox Live, they're offering one month for $1 right now.  I don't think the promotion lasts long, but it was a nice surprise when I decided to renew my subscription today.

While it's not as good of a deal, I realized you can buy XBL subscription codes on Amazon at a discount from the standard rate of $6/mo. Right now they're going for $38.97. You also receive the code online which is nice. Saved me a trip to Best Buy for an actual card.

Edit: Sorry, $38.97 for 13 months. Not one month.