Quote from: ChuckD on June 18, 2009, 01:33:46 PM
Because we shouldn't need Soriano to succeed to remind Chuck, "Fuck you."
But I'm not one to discriminate...
FYC!
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#1981
Desipio Lounge / Re: Open "FYC" Thread
June 18, 2009, 04:01:34 PMBut I'm not one to discriminate...
FYC!
#1982
Desipio Lounge / Re: Open "FYC" Thread
June 18, 2009, 01:33:46 PM
Because we shouldn't need Soriano to succeed to remind Chuck, "Fuck you."
#1983
Desipio Lounge / Re: A "Disgusting Act" by Artie Lange
June 16, 2009, 10:36:15 AM
Oh, that was awesome.
YOU CAN'T DO THAT, SIR! SIR, YOU CANNOT DO THAT. NO DON'T! PLEASE!
Quote
Artie: Sorry to ruin your fucking great show.
Joe: Yeah. No, no. I appreciate the apology because you have.
YOU CAN'T DO THAT, SIR! SIR, YOU CANNOT DO THAT. NO DON'T! PLEASE!
#1984
Desipio Lounge / Re: The Atheist Communist Caliphate Made Flesh, Spread the Clusterfuck Around Thread
June 16, 2009, 09:55:44 AM
Scarborough broadcasted from the White House in February.
Seriously, this is the best you've got? I'm disappointed.
Seriously, this is the best you've got? I'm disappointed.
#1985
Desipio Lounge / Re: The Unresolved Bullpen Angst Thread
June 15, 2009, 08:07:50 PMQuote from: CT III on June 15, 2009, 08:00:54 PMQuote from: Slak on June 15, 2009, 07:22:50 PMQuote from: PenFoe on June 15, 2009, 07:10:36 PM
Well, even though the Bullpen angst has been mostly resolved, it's never bad when you can add the Cutter that will drink the blood of non-believers.Quote
DES MOINES -- The Cubs have found what they've been looking for out of right-hander Kevin Hart at Class AAA Iowa, and that is consistency.
Maybe someone who's registered can tell us what the rest of this says.
And ten they can explain why they paid...$89.99/year for that?
His numbers are pretty good actually. 50ks in 46.1 innings, 33 hits and a WHIP of 1.08.
Sweet.
The Cubs could use a 14th pitcher on the roster.
Or one Not David Patton.
#1986
Desipio Lounge / Re: Fuck Zorp You Stathead Faggots
June 12, 2009, 10:19:16 AMQuote from: Tank on June 12, 2009, 09:49:17 AM
You rate a "Type 2" on the Bristol Stool Chart.
Intrepid Reader: Fork
<Something about Bristol Palin and anal sex>
#1987
Desipio Lounge / Re: You Tube discoveries
June 11, 2009, 09:47:04 PM #1988
The Dead Pool / Re: A Guard Over Angels
June 10, 2009, 04:12:03 PM
I am shocked--shocked--that Free Republic would be home to such an unbalanced person.
#1989
Desipio Lounge / Re: The Atheist Communist Caliphate Made Flesh, Spread the Clusterfuck Around Thread
June 10, 2009, 04:02:34 PMQuote from: morpheus on June 10, 2009, 04:00:02 PM
In short, they're plugging this stuff into an econometric model and reporting the results asfactestimated impacts?
Yes.
One more point...
#1990
Desipio Lounge / Re: The Atheist Communist Caliphate Made Flesh, Spread the Clusterfuck Around Thread
June 10, 2009, 03:46:04 PM
There are, however, problems with the approach.
For one, BEA data doesn't differentiate between full-time and part-time employment. Of these 150,000 jobs, 50,000 might be full-time, salaried jobs with benefits but the remainder might be part-time jobs at retail stores. Some better detail about the jobs and the associated impacts on employee compensation would be good to have.
The model is also only accurate in extrapolating the past economy forward through the future. That is to say, if a major retooling of the economy occurs, then all (a lot of) bets are off. As an example, if you were evaluating the impact of the newspaper industry, you would need to use data from 2005-7. However, it's commonly agreed that newspapers are entering a world of pain. Adjustments would need to be done or else the economic activity produced by the industry will be overvalued.
They're probably also being extremely generous with attributing "new jobs" when, in reality, these jobs would stay around regardless of whether the stimulus occurred. For instance, if the demand for trucking is currently maxed out, then the new demands on the sector by the stimulus money isn't going to create as many new jobs. Some jobs will be created, yes, but more likely is that it's simply going to shift capacity from other uses and raise the market clearing price for trucking services.
I will say that I take issue with the use of the "rule of thumb" where 1% of GDP is assumed to equal 1,000,000 jobs. It seems like lazy work when BEA/BLS have information regarding input/output and employment at extremely detailed levels of analysis. That's all I'll say about it. Back to your regular programming.
For one, BEA data doesn't differentiate between full-time and part-time employment. Of these 150,000 jobs, 50,000 might be full-time, salaried jobs with benefits but the remainder might be part-time jobs at retail stores. Some better detail about the jobs and the associated impacts on employee compensation would be good to have.
The model is also only accurate in extrapolating the past economy forward through the future. That is to say, if a major retooling of the economy occurs, then all (a lot of) bets are off. As an example, if you were evaluating the impact of the newspaper industry, you would need to use data from 2005-7. However, it's commonly agreed that newspapers are entering a world of pain. Adjustments would need to be done or else the economic activity produced by the industry will be overvalued.
They're probably also being extremely generous with attributing "new jobs" when, in reality, these jobs would stay around regardless of whether the stimulus occurred. For instance, if the demand for trucking is currently maxed out, then the new demands on the sector by the stimulus money isn't going to create as many new jobs. Some jobs will be created, yes, but more likely is that it's simply going to shift capacity from other uses and raise the market clearing price for trucking services.
I will say that I take issue with the use of the "rule of thumb" where 1% of GDP is assumed to equal 1,000,000 jobs. It seems like lazy work when BEA/BLS have information regarding input/output and employment at extremely detailed levels of analysis. That's all I'll say about it. Back to your regular programming.
#1991
Desipio Lounge / Re: The Atheist Communist Caliphate Made Flesh, Spread the Clusterfuck Around Thread
June 10, 2009, 03:45:52 PM
Having just taken a course on economic impact modeling, I'll try to shed some light on how the numbers are produced.
The method used to estimate the jobs is based upon an Input-Output analysis of data that's collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. IO Analysis looks at how a marginal dollar spent by one company (output) is re-spent by its suppliers (input) within an economic area. So, if we give the hypothetical Chicago Obamadong Corp. a hypothetical dollar, they're going to spend it on molding equipment, latex, staples, etc--anything that's needed to implant dongs in the mouths of Obamanazis. Each of those suppliers then spends the fraction of the dollar they receive from Obamadong to purchase inputs from their suppliers. Por ejemplo, the staple manufacturer, also located in Chicago, takes the 20 cents or whatever they received from Obamadong and pays 10 cents to a metal refinery in PITTSBURGH for raw inputs. The 20 cents would be counted as regional economic activity, but the 10 cents would not--it's been "externalized" and is now creating economic activity in PITTSBURGH. The process repeats itself until the original dollar has been completely externalized. This is the main principle behind "buy local" campaigns or, at the national level, "buy American." More spending within the economy = less externalization = more economic growth.
Anyway, at the end of the process, the total of the times the original dollar is spent are summed to produce a "multiplier." So, Obamadong spends the original dollar, and by the time it has completely externalized, the original dollar has been spent 3.5 more times by Chicago-area entities in the company's supply chain. The multiplier would be 4.5, or 1+3.5. With the multiplier, you can determine the number of jobs impacted. Simply take the total employment of Obamadong (or the entire dong implantation industry sector) and divide it by the total economic output. The result is the number of jobs per dollar of output.
I won't go in to exactly how you create the model, but it's pretty widely accepted as a sound methodology. This guy (anti-Communist, FWIW) won a Nobel Prize in economics for discovering the matrix inversion that makes the thing run. Here's a full text available online if you really want to look in to the matter. You can do it in Excel if you have the data, or there's software called IMPLAN that automates much of the process.
The model works in two ways. You can stimulate the final demand (adding a positive value) for an industry and determine how much additional output would be produced by the economy as a whole. Or, you can contract the final demand (adding a negative value) and see how much would be lost.
Here is the shit you probably care about: If the market is allowed to contract, jobs will be lost. This can be predicted by estimating the contraction, plugging the values in to the model's final demand, summing the resulting lost output across all industries, and converting that in to jobs. This is the baseline prediction; it's what will happen without any intervention. For example, let's say that a 5% contraction in consumer spending is estimated to reduce jobs across all industries by 1 million.
Now, we want to predict the impact of the stimulus funds. The stimulus funds are plugged in to the model and they offset some of the contraction, but not completely. The model spits out some figures that show a 5% contraction in consumer spending coupled with the stimulus would result in a reduction in employment by 200,000. The difference between the two figures is 800,000. Some of those jobs are new because government spending cannot perfectly match the consumer spending patterns which would have occurred otherwise (nor would they want to). But other jobs are saved by the stimulus because the government spending does somewhat overlap with those spending patterns.
Some jobs are saved. Others are created. There's no way to calculate specifically the number of jobs saved or the number of jobs created. But be aware that there is a way of calculating the "number of jobs saved or created."
The method used to estimate the jobs is based upon an Input-Output analysis of data that's collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. IO Analysis looks at how a marginal dollar spent by one company (output) is re-spent by its suppliers (input) within an economic area. So, if we give the hypothetical Chicago Obamadong Corp. a hypothetical dollar, they're going to spend it on molding equipment, latex, staples, etc--anything that's needed to implant dongs in the mouths of Obamanazis. Each of those suppliers then spends the fraction of the dollar they receive from Obamadong to purchase inputs from their suppliers. Por ejemplo, the staple manufacturer, also located in Chicago, takes the 20 cents or whatever they received from Obamadong and pays 10 cents to a metal refinery in PITTSBURGH for raw inputs. The 20 cents would be counted as regional economic activity, but the 10 cents would not--it's been "externalized" and is now creating economic activity in PITTSBURGH. The process repeats itself until the original dollar has been completely externalized. This is the main principle behind "buy local" campaigns or, at the national level, "buy American." More spending within the economy = less externalization = more economic growth.
Anyway, at the end of the process, the total of the times the original dollar is spent are summed to produce a "multiplier." So, Obamadong spends the original dollar, and by the time it has completely externalized, the original dollar has been spent 3.5 more times by Chicago-area entities in the company's supply chain. The multiplier would be 4.5, or 1+3.5. With the multiplier, you can determine the number of jobs impacted. Simply take the total employment of Obamadong (or the entire dong implantation industry sector) and divide it by the total economic output. The result is the number of jobs per dollar of output.
I won't go in to exactly how you create the model, but it's pretty widely accepted as a sound methodology. This guy (anti-Communist, FWIW) won a Nobel Prize in economics for discovering the matrix inversion that makes the thing run. Here's a full text available online if you really want to look in to the matter. You can do it in Excel if you have the data, or there's software called IMPLAN that automates much of the process.
The model works in two ways. You can stimulate the final demand (adding a positive value) for an industry and determine how much additional output would be produced by the economy as a whole. Or, you can contract the final demand (adding a negative value) and see how much would be lost.
Here is the shit you probably care about: If the market is allowed to contract, jobs will be lost. This can be predicted by estimating the contraction, plugging the values in to the model's final demand, summing the resulting lost output across all industries, and converting that in to jobs. This is the baseline prediction; it's what will happen without any intervention. For example, let's say that a 5% contraction in consumer spending is estimated to reduce jobs across all industries by 1 million.
Now, we want to predict the impact of the stimulus funds. The stimulus funds are plugged in to the model and they offset some of the contraction, but not completely. The model spits out some figures that show a 5% contraction in consumer spending coupled with the stimulus would result in a reduction in employment by 200,000. The difference between the two figures is 800,000. Some of those jobs are new because government spending cannot perfectly match the consumer spending patterns which would have occurred otherwise (nor would they want to). But other jobs are saved by the stimulus because the government spending does somewhat overlap with those spending patterns.
Some jobs are saved. Others are created. There's no way to calculate specifically the number of jobs saved or the number of jobs created. But be aware that there is a way of calculating the "number of jobs saved or created."
#1992
Desipio Lounge / Re: Pollyellon banned me
June 09, 2009, 10:37:57 AMQuote from: Andy on June 09, 2009, 10:16:08 AM
You saw that too. I just e-mailed Al about this wonderful post.
To: al@bleedcubbieblue.com
Fr: andy@desipio.com
Re: Your "request for civility"
Time: 9:37 AM
I like to check in now and again Al and see what you're up to. It amuses me in much the same way that the dung flinging monkeys at Brookfield do.
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2009/6/9/903463/the-nature-of-being-a-cubs-fan-and
You rarely disappoint. Like again today, you spend an awful lot of your time telling your readers and posters how to behave. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, it's nice that you have created a shelter for the shut-ins and surface-only thinkers, it keeps them away from our sites.
So thanks. Keep up the good work.
But you do realize that if you had just left it all alone a couple of years ago it would have weeded itself out. It always does.
No, of course you don't realize that. What was I thinking?
Love,
Andy
Great post, Andy! I think we all need to remember this from time to time. I know I'll be trying extra hard to keep this in mind when I post from now on.
#1993
Desipio Lounge / Re: Randy Wells Splooge-a-thon
June 07, 2009, 03:43:01 PMQuote from: ~Apex on June 07, 2009, 02:23:24 PM
He's got some shit-talk to him and I strongly positive that from a guy with a sub-2.00 ERA.
#1994
Desipio Lounge / Re: Randy Wells Splooge-a-thon
June 02, 2009, 10:20:54 PMQuote from: LoneStarCubFan on June 02, 2009, 10:17:19 PMQuote from: ChuckD on June 02, 2009, 10:13:58 PMQuote from: LoneStarCubFan on June 02, 2009, 09:31:11 PMQuote from: MAD on June 02, 2009, 09:29:40 PMQuote from: LoneStarCubFan on June 02, 2009, 08:59:25 PM
I hate this fucking team.
Good. Does that mean that we're no longer going to have to read your whiny-ass puke all the time?
No.
And fuck off.
You've not only proven dumber than CFiHP, but you've made me hate baseball along the way. Congratulations on your unique brand of stupidity; I anxiously await the day when it purges itself from the gene pool in gutless fucking fashion.
So it's me and not this dogshit excuse for a baseball team? Right.
Right.
#1995
Desipio Lounge / Re: Randy Wells Splooge-a-thon
June 02, 2009, 10:13:58 PMQuote from: LoneStarCubFan on June 02, 2009, 09:31:11 PMQuote from: MAD on June 02, 2009, 09:29:40 PMQuote from: LoneStarCubFan on June 02, 2009, 08:59:25 PM
I hate this fucking team.
Good. Does that mean that we're no longer going to have to read your whiny-ass puke all the time?
No.
And fuck off.
You've not only proven dumber than CFiHP, but you've made me hate baseball along the way. Congratulations on your unique brand of stupidity; I anxiously await the day when it purges itself from the gene pool in gutless fucking fashion.