Desipio Message Board

Quote from: ~Apex on May 31, 2009, 10:49:30 PM
Somebody ask Joe Morgan a question.

Do you like root beer floats as much as you think I do?

Quote from: RV on May 31, 2009, 05:38:38 PM
Unless my lizard brain is completely misunderstanding this post, we can lay the DEALER CLOSING CONSPIRACY! stuff to rest in the Vince Foster Mausoleum.

QuoteAfter all, there is no positive relationship whatsoever in the data on Democratic, Republican, Obama or McCain donations -- which until Singer's analysis was posted approximately 10 hours ago -- had been the focus of the dealergate hypothesis.

QuotePredictably, this has not prevented people like Michelle Malkin and Doug Ross from claiming that Singer's data confirms their hypothesis. Of course, it does not confirm their original hypothesis, which was that donors to Republican candidates were more likely to have their dealership closed. Instead, a new hypothesis has evolved -- it's all about those dirty, rotten Clintons! -- the sole reed of evidence for which is Singer's overstated conclusion (but not really her underlying data itself).

QuoteWhenever you see a Magically Mystery Hypothesis like this one -- one which constantly transforms itself to fit the (lack of) available evidence -- you should be skpetical.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/on-moon-landings-michelle-malkin-p.html

QuoteThe way this data is being used is almost the same. Singer ran six sets of regression analysis: one each for Obama, McCain, Clinton, Democratic and Republican donors, and another for those dealers who had made no political contributions at all. She was therefore testing six hypotheses. If these hypothesis were independent from one another (which, to be clear, in this case they aren't), the odds that at least one of the six would return a p-value of .125 or lower are better than 50:50! Not only are false positives possible -- they are practically inevitable, particularly if you test enough hypotheses and tolerate a low enough threshold for statistical significance.

First, keep this, this, and more this in mind.

I don't have anywhere near the background of Silver, but I wouldn't be as quick to disregard the Clinton connection. No, it doesn't meet the .05 threshold, but it's definitely intriguing. Even more so given this:

Quote from: Zero HedgeSteven Rattner, the Car Czar, is married to Maureen White, one-time national finance chairman of the Democratic National Committee. What does Maureen do now? From her website:

Maureen White is currently Chairman of the Board of Overseers of The International Rescue Committee (IRC), a member of the North American Advisory Board for the London School of Economics, and a National Finance Chair of the Hillary Clinton for President Campaign. (emphasis ours)

My take is that political motives and conspiracies are certainly ruled out--that's not going to surprise anyone save for a few mouthbreathing proponents of Ron Paulitics. Obama's dick is still dangling out of my mouth. But there's still a reasonable argument to be made for further investigation in to any possible personal motives of Rattner. There's no reason to not give him the benefit of the doubt, especially since nobody has been able to look over/replicate Zero Hedge's findings. However, if the numbers check out, I see no reason to not proceed with an objective inquiry. It's unlikely to happen as it it'll be Malkin and Ross leading the charge and asking for Obama's head, but I can dream.

Quote from: Bonk on May 30, 2009, 10:45:50 AM
Also, I wasn't trying to be ironic before, assmaster, I was taking a shot at those overreliant on sabermetrics. Because, you know, Bill James always has to turn down managerial and GM jobs.

It's GM, manager, or bust. Senior Advisor of Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox? Not to mention, the same Red Sox who've seen four ALCS appearances and two championships in his six years. That old statfaggot may as well be flippin' Whoppers.

Quote from: Kermit, B. on May 29, 2009, 11:23:29 AM

Quote from: MAD on May 28, 2009, 10:41:41 PM
I blame Ron Santo for engendering the overly-anxious ledge-jumping "woe is us" fatalism that has enveloped a healthy chunk of the fanbase.  He represents  all that drives me crazy about being a fan of this team.

For years my beef with Santo was his utter refusal to do any real preparation befitting a color analyst.  But this was a minor quibble to be sure.  He has now regressed to the role of ear rapist.  I don't care about the thoughtless sad-sack douchebag segment of the fanbase that still inexplicably finds his tired act cute--the fans deserve better.  I think it's shameful and reflects poorly on the man's character that he so willingly plays the buffoonish mascot for the Cubbie Wubbies and lets everybody advocate on his behalf without even a hint of embarassment.  Fuck him--I'm glad some of you are finally coming around to this dick.

And Garry Meier can eat a bag of unwashed ass for his cloying "Get Ron Bronzed" bullshit.  A fucking statue for this clown?  Really?  Hanging his fucking jersey on the foul pole is not enough?  Fuck you Garry Meier, I never fucking liked you anyway, you creepy fucking washout.  You've gone from anti-establishment radio guy to actually carrying the banner for a pet cause for the station you spent years mocking.  Fucking sellout.

I think they should do a statue of him out of plastic except for his legs, which should be made of human flesh.

Can the statue also be rigged to provide lucid, insightful commentary about the Cubs?

Quote from: morpheus on May 29, 2009, 12:55:46 PM

Quote from: Chuck to Chuck on May 29, 2009, 12:23:35 PM

Quote from: Brownie on May 29, 2009, 12:15:49 PM
Al Yellon: "Hoffpauir sucked during his September callup if you exclude the games where he got hits."

Chuck: "Soriano was is terrible unless you include the once-a every-other-month week-and-a-half spurts where he's the best hitter you'd see anywhere which makes him tolerable so long as you ignore his defense."

You really think that his defensive shortcomings overcome his offensive skills?  Luckily, they make statistics on fielding too.  

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/soriaal01-field.shtml

Let's take 2008 as an example. If you want to use fielding percentage, his was .975 versus league average .985 in LF.  A little below average.  The Rtot, which is a comprehensive runs above average statistic, was 1.7.  i.e, he CREATED 1.7 runs above average during the year with his defense.  At least, you'd have to call him an average fielder, unless you want to ignore all numerical evidence and go with the Gary Hughes method.  

In summary: above average on offense, average to above average on defense.  That does not equal awful, awful.

Rebuttal: Dave Kingman

Quote from: CT III on May 29, 2009, 09:01:42 AM
Jeebus, what did you search for Tank, "nightmare fuel"?

Quote from: Tank on May 29, 2009, 08:32:34 AM
Google Image Search...

"Random picture"...

http://i43.tinypic.com/2zelegy.jpg

UNRELATED!

http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&safe=off&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&um=1&sa=1&q=random+picture&btnG=Search+Images&aq=f&oq=

You just got dissed, Broseph.

QuoteMoutza (palm of hand)
Main article: Moutza

In most places, a palm raised towards somebody means "stop".

In Greece, the palm of the hand thrust towards somebody with the fingers splayed is an offensive gesture similar, but bearing less offense, to giving the finger. The gesture is known in Greek as "moutza". It originates from the Byzantine punishment of parading a chained criminal around town with his face smeared with cinder, or moutzos in Greek. An even more offensive version is achieved by using both hands to double the gesture, and smacking the palm of one hand against the back of the other, in the direction of the intended recipient. Both the one-handed and the two-handed versions of this gesture can be (and often are) combined with the term "na!", meaning "here you go!" or "there!",or "parta!", meaning "take those/this" or "na, malaka!", meaning "there, you wanker!" In Latin America, something similar is used. Except when the fingers touch the top of the palm as if one holds a baseball to throw a knuckleball. Usually when thrusted (bottom of the palm pointed to the person) to the person it means "fuck you." If the thrust is started from the rib cage then its generally meant to "fuck your mother." This gesture is highly offensive.

Quote from: Weebs on May 28, 2009, 08:54:51 AM
I've just about mastered the Underboss tier, and all I can say is whoever on the design team decided the Untraceable Cell Phone was a good item to put in the game can burn in hell.

Edit: Apparently I was only just finishing the second set of that tier.  Fuck this game.

Post #5

Quote from: MikeC on May 27, 2009, 02:13:12 PM
The more research being done is that a vast majority of the closures of the small minority of dealerships that are owned by persons who have in the past contributed to political causes look to be heavy GOP donors.

Edited for the ginormous fucking distinction. Like 100 fold.

Edit: Fine. Maybe 80 fold.

Edit2: 20 fold. I'll go with 20 fold. Or maybe 50.

Edit3: By the way, thanks for using spellcheck yesterday, MikeC.

Quote from: Slakee on May 27, 2009, 12:32:24 PM

Quote from: Dave B on May 27, 2009, 12:28:42 PM
Now we know what Carlos has been up to:

http://deadspin.com/5270503/carlos-marmol-leaves-team-to-be-with-wife-not-pictured-his-wife?skyline=true&s=x

I've come to expect nothing but chivalry and class from pro baseball players. You've shattered my entire world.

I'm more disappointed that he's wearing (what appears to be) a Remetee.

Quote from: Tank on May 26, 2009, 01:23:29 PM

Quote from: Brownie on May 26, 2009, 01:13:58 PM
Here's one of the more troubling rulings in Sotomayor's (recent) past...

I'd want to know more about her view of private property rights. This ruling sucks.

I remember that case. IIRC, it really did royally suck.

I'd like to hear more about this, too.

http://vlex.com/vid/didden-village-port-chester-summ-ord-20315525

As Chuck noted, the second circuit's decision was consistent with Kelo. Yes, Kelo sucks, but...

QuoteYour beef is with Stevens, Kennedy, Souter, Ginsburg, and Breyer, not Sotomayor.

[/Chuck being right]

Also, the Agitator article is pretty misleading:

QuoteThe panel's entire analysis: "We agree with the district court that [Wasser's] voluntary attempt to resolve appellants' demands was neither an unconstitutional exaction in the form of extortion nor an equal protection violation."

I mean, technically, that's correct, so long as you ignore the statute of limitations which lapsed a year and a half prior to Didden taking action.

Finally, I thought the Chrysler dealership graft scandal was "today's thing for the right to be mad about"? Are we switching to a half-day cycle? I just want to know so I can keep my list updated.

Thrill hit the nail on the head. Small business owners are simply more likely to donate to Republicans. It's not a coincidence; it's an effect of the ideological differences between the parties on economic issues. Had these closings occurred under Bush, the result would be the same. A large majority of those afflicted  would be owned by Republicans. If you are a supplier, you tend to favor supply-side policies. Supply-side policies are (generally) advanced by Republicans. If welfare was expanded tomorrow and a list of the new recipients was released, we'd likely find that the people on the list had donated to Democrats. Would that be indicative of political favoritism? Poor people vote Democratic; Democrats generally favor social welfare programs that benefit the poor.

Additionally, just glancing over that list, a lot of the owners are located in the South. I imagine you'd find--regardless of socioeconomic status or political ideology-- that a person in a southern state is a lot more likely to donate to the GOP. If you want the attention of your congressman and all of them are Republicans, you're going to be a "Republican donor" (even if you're a Democratic voter).

Quote from: Brownie on May 26, 2009, 09:04:13 AM
It's not their right to give money to candidates or causes, Thrillho. Not if they want to do business in California.

I'm confused. How is this relevant to the Chrysler closings?

Quote from: theoneandonlyjim on May 25, 2009, 03:01:39 PM
The bad reviews didn't do this movie justice.  What a steaming pile.

Looks pretty good to me.

Quote from: Fork on May 21, 2009, 03:21:51 PM

Quote from: Oleg on May 21, 2009, 02:57:07 PM

Quote from: air2300 on May 21, 2009, 02:35:36 PM

Quote from: Slakee on May 21, 2009, 02:23:20 PM

Quote from: air2300 on May 21, 2009, 01:13:34 PM

Quote from: MikeC on May 21, 2009, 01:08:13 PM
So if we shut down GITMO terrorists will love us?

Yes, that's exactly why they shut down GITMO. 

There's a switch at the prison. Once they finally hit it - terrorists love us again. It's going to be legendary.

I for one, can't wait for that day.  That messiah Obama, is there anything that he can't fix? 

Mike Fontenot's swing?
Neal Cotts's pitch command?
Geo Soto's workout regiment?

Chronic shortness?

HEY-O!

Quote from: Kermit, B. on May 16, 2009, 12:34:18 AM
Not to get all Weebs, but that was the most REALISTIC episode I've ever seen.  Both Dwight and Michael acted like REAL PEOPLE to great effect.

So, what do you think the big news was?  That Pam's ankle is okay?

Her ankle's pregnant!