Desipio Message Board

Quote from: Tony on January 09, 2010, 09:51:43 AM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on January 09, 2010, 09:32:42 AM

Quote from: SKO on January 07, 2010, 03:08:40 PM

Quote from: Yeti on January 07, 2010, 08:28:33 AM
Not sure how accurate it is, but que SKO ANGER

QuoteMike Martz will be the new offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears. 

Andy Maisonneuve, Bears beat reporter for the "Bearly legal Show" on 670TheScore.com , has confirmed with an inside source in the Bears organization that Martz is getting the job.

"He has not signed the dotted line yet, however my sources tell me it's a done deal" states Maisonneuve.

Since its not on Profootballtalk, and since Phillips denied it, I'll breathe a sigh of relief for the moment. But if they hire Mike Martz, I promise you all the greatest rant in the history of rants. Rants about Mike Martz being the Bears offensive coordinator, that is.

The Bears have fast WR's and a gun slinging QB.  That worked well for Martz before.

The T formation worked well before too. Or did you forget?

Fast WR's and a gun slinging QB and a great offensive line are working in Minnesota. 

Quote from: SKO on January 07, 2010, 03:08:40 PM

Quote from: Yeti on January 07, 2010, 08:28:33 AM
Not sure how accurate it is, but que SKO ANGER

QuoteMike Martz will be the new offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears. 

Andy Maisonneuve, Bears beat reporter for the "Bearly legal Show" on 670TheScore.com , has confirmed with an inside source in the Bears organization that Martz is getting the job.

"He has not signed the dotted line yet, however my sources tell me it's a done deal" states Maisonneuve.

Since its not on Profootballtalk, and since Phillips denied it, I'll breathe a sigh of relief for the moment. But if they hire Mike Martz, I promise you all the greatest rant in the history of rants. Rants about Mike Martz being the Bears offensive coordinator, that is.

The Bears have fast WR's and a gun slinging QB.  That worked well for Martz before.

Quote from: Pre on January 08, 2010, 02:52:40 PM

Quote from: MAD on January 08, 2010, 02:34:20 PM
That's about as likely as Aaron Miles winning the triple crown next season.

baseball or horse racing?

If Aaron Miles were a horse, he'd have been glue a long time ago.

Quote from: Oleg on January 06, 2010, 11:19:49 PM

Quote from: JD on January 06, 2010, 07:06:52 PM
I used to get Gil Gunderson and CFiHP mixed up.  I don't anymore.  Aren't they both lawyers or law students or hockey fans or something?  I don't know why.  Who can remember those kinds of things?  Anyway...


my apologies, Gil.  It doesn't happen anymore.

Me next!  Me next!  With whom do you get me mixed up?

Quote from: R-V on January 06, 2010, 08:26:17 AM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on January 05, 2010, 11:02:01 PM

Quote from: Eli on January 05, 2010, 06:20:34 PM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on January 05, 2010, 06:03:06 PM
Quality of teams has to factor in here--when Bay was with the Pirates, they were so shitty that a replacement LF wasn't going to cost the Pirates games they were already losing.  When he was with the Red Sox, there was enough surrounding talent that Bay's contributions probably didn't influence their winning percentage that strongly.

That's not how it works.

From what I read, WAR calculated the # of wins the player would be expected to contribute above a generic/average replacement.  Maybe I misunderstood, but if that is the case, it'd make sense that a player's team would influence that stat.

As for UZR, it makes sense that an OF's rating would be affected by who plays the neighboring position(s).  It'll be interesting to see if a healthy Beltran affects Bay's rating.

So what's it like going through life never being wrong about anything?

I'm not saying I'm right--I didn't understand the full definition of the stats and why a player's team's quality didn't affect the WAR value of a player and was asking for clarity.

I'm just trying to learn, and focused/pointed questions are usually the best way to get the information you're lacking.

Nice W for the US Junior team.  And an incredible game apparently--I have it on the DVR, looking forward to it.

Quote from: Eli on January 05, 2010, 06:20:34 PM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on January 05, 2010, 06:03:06 PM
Quality of teams has to factor in here--when Bay was with the Pirates, they were so shitty that a replacement LF wasn't going to cost the Pirates games they were already losing.  When he was with the Red Sox, there was enough surrounding talent that Bay's contributions probably didn't influence their winning percentage that strongly.

That's not how it works.

From what I read, WAR calculated the # of wins the player would be expected to contribute above a generic/average replacement.  Maybe I misunderstood, but if that is the case, it'd make sense that a player's team would influence that stat.

As for UZR, it makes sense that an OF's rating would be affected by who plays the neighboring position(s).  It'll be interesting to see if a healthy Beltran affects Bay's rating.

Quote from: Pre on January 05, 2010, 08:53:05 AM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on January 05, 2010, 03:38:19 AM
Holliday is two years younger though, and he might be better than Bay, but by "a lot?"  I don't see the wide margin in the numbers.  I'd say that Holliday is a marginal upgrade, if anything.

You would make a great GM.

For the Mets.

WAR for the last 3 years
Bay -      0.0 (not on vacation, just crappy)/2.9/3.5
Holliday - 8.0/6.3/5.7

Quality of teams has to factor in here--when Bay was with the Pirates, they were so shitty that a replacement LF wasn't going to cost the Pirates games they were already losing.  When he was with the Red Sox, there was enough surrounding talent that Bay's contributions probably didn't influence their winning percentage that strongly.

Holliday played for teams that were good enough that his contributions could matter.

And adjust for Coors inflation.

I think that the OPS splits--especially the away ones--are still the most relevant, as they measure individual performance, instead of linking value to the quality of the team for which the player played.

Quote from: Eli on January 04, 2010, 05:38:23 PM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on January 04, 2010, 04:38:55 PM
I'd give both him up and all of his past seasons up to be signing either of Bay/Holliday + Byrd now.

You need to stop using those two guys like they're interchangeable.  Holliday is a lot better than Bay.

Orly?  I'm not a statfag, but if you look at road OPS (to adjust for Coors and to a lesser extent new urinal cake) over the past four years--Bay wins '09 and '06, is .18 off in '08, and had a down year in '07--in a terrible Pittsburgh lineup that offered him zero protection.

Bay's ultimate zone rating is significantly worse--but it fluctuates a lot, as does Holliday's.  And this might be worth a read on the value of UZR:

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2009/12/what-the-uzr-disciples-wont-tell-you-about-jason-bay.html

Holliday is two years younger though, and he might be better than Bay, but by "a lot?"  I don't see the wide margin in the numbers.  I'd say that Holliday is a marginal upgrade, if anything.

Quote from: Yeti on January 04, 2010, 03:18:56 PM

Quote from: Kermit IV on January 04, 2010, 03:10:55 PM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on June 11, 2009, 11:32:43 AM

Quote from: Fork on June 11, 2009, 10:38:37 AM

Quote from: MAD on June 11, 2009, 10:31:16 AM
Can't you guys let this thread die in peace?  Turdblow is flipping burgers at the local A & W.  

And missing the grill with each one.

Well played.

Edit: Holy shit!  I have one more post on this account--#1908 is going to come tomorrow, on graduation (and hopefully Stanley Cup) day.

#2087 and counting.

They are getting progressively shittier too.

I didn't realize that I still had room to get worse.

Quote from: ChuckD on January 04, 2010, 07:20:25 AM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on January 04, 2010, 07:11:21 AM

Quote from: Eli on January 02, 2010, 09:43:44 AM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on December 31, 2009, 06:06:49 PM
Isn't it nice that the Cubs now have to pass on legit good OF's like Bay and Holliday

I'd much rather have Byrd at 3/15 than Bay for 4/66.  Bay is Dunn-like in the outfield and it kills his value.

I'm saying that I wish the Cubs could sign FA's that were  entering their prime production years, rather than throwing money at looming albatrosses.

Bay and Holliday are in their prime--I have no problem throwing dump trucks of money at guys who have proven that they can rake and are still in their prime.  I'm not saying Byrd isn't a bad signing...I'm just saying I'd much rather be signing Bay or Holliday, or both.  It's not like we  have a terrible defensive left fielder now, or anything.

I don't think you're not. And since when has $15mm/3yr been an albatross? Let alone a looming one. That third year at $5mm is really going to kill Our Cubbies in 2012.

I was referring to Soriano.  I'd give both him up and all of his past seasons up to be signing either of Bay/Holliday + Byrd now.

Hindsight 20/20, I know--but the Cubs' should be in better shape than to have to sign a second-tier FA and a hitting coach as their major offseason splashes, especially when the defending NL champs already have a lineup that mashes and got Halladay.  But I suppose improving a team with the Phillies lurking makes any money spent wasted money.  Unless they eat an inordinate amount of serious injuries, the NL shouldn't be terribly intriguing in the long run.

Quote from: Fork on December 30, 2009, 01:44:48 PM

Quote from: Dave B on December 30, 2009, 01:33:02 PM
Many think Buff may also make Team USA. I don't think he should, but they like his size and speed and ability to switch back to D. If they can get him fired up for 6-8 games...

Team Canada is really good (duh), but nothing like their last few Olympic teams.

Team Canada can out-play anyone else in the tournament, with the possible exception of Russia. With Russia, they'll win roughly 150% of all faceoffs, so they can just play keep-away.

Crosby vs. Malkin...yeah, you're right.

But has there ever been a line with more firepower than Kovalchuk/Malkin/Ovechkin?  That one is going to be amazing fun to watch.

Quote from: Eli on January 02, 2010, 09:43:44 AM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on December 31, 2009, 06:06:49 PM
Isn't it nice that the Cubs now have to pass on legit good OF's like Bay and Holliday

I'd much rather have Byrd at 3/15 than Bay for 4/66.  Bay is Dunn-like in the outfield and it kills his value.

I'm saying that I wish the Cubs could sign FA's that were  entering their prime production years, rather than throwing money at looming albatrosses.

Bay and Holliday are in their prime--I have no problem throwing dump trucks of money at guys who have proven that they can rake and are still in their prime.  I'm not saying Byrd isn't a bad signing...I'm just saying I'd much rather be signing Bay or Holliday, or both.  It's not like we  have a terrible defensive left fielder now, or anything.

Isn't it nice that the Cubs now have to pass on legit good OF's like Bay and Holliday because the albatross hanging around the team's salary? Hendry blows.

Quote from: Fork on December 29, 2009, 10:16:46 AM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on December 29, 2009, 09:25:12 AM

Quote from: Fork on December 29, 2009, 07:24:47 AM

Quote from: CubFaninHydePark on December 29, 2009, 12:11:20 AM

Quote from: Fork on December 28, 2009, 10:16:44 AM

The only recent disappointment has been the Blackhawks cancelling the construction helmet promotion on Jan. 10.

This is a surprise after last year's Pens/Hawks game?

The only surprise is that they did it in the first place.

The solution to construction helmets + hat trick is to have all the fans in the lower level wear their hard hats until all the fans in the upper level are done throwing theirs down.

But yeah--that was a surprise...McDonough needs better interns if nobody asked "so what happens if someone nets a HT and fans throw hard helmets from the 300 levels?"

Especially since 2 idiots on a podcast predicted it weeks before it hai'ed, and I'm sure the Hawks had a hat-trick pool going in the clubhouse.

Maybe they saw the opponent and figured nobody was getting 3 past Fleurry?