Pollyellon banned me

[Brownie]

Actually, I would like to address this. Why? Well, I do like being an incessant prick who argues things with people who I perceive as dumber than myself. Where did you get that number? Is that some streak he had that Cincinnati reported on? And was this "900 Plate Appearances with a runner on third and less than 2 outs"? Because that's about the only time you can get a Sac Fly (minus the rare second to third ones). How can you judge a guy on a situational stat (much like RBIs, but that's for a different day, maybe tomorrow when you start using those to argue points) and use a span of "900 plate appearances" to indicate that HE did something wrong?

Now, I assume this stretch must have occurred in 2004 (and surrounding seasons) because he had no Sac Flies. However, he only had 44 PAs in that situation (Runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs). So, you're butthurt over that?

/reinserts Adam's huge fucking donkey dong

I'm pretty sure a batter is not credited with a SAC Fly (and is charged with an AB) on any flyout wherein the runner tags from any other base other than third and advances to the next base.

And yes, Dunn had some ridonkulous streak where he hadn't had a SAC fly in ages.  Why Bonk thinks that this sort of statistical aberration fairly signifies a blight on Dunn's career is beyond me, but here we are.

http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/this-week-in-sacrifice-flies-cincinnatis-ad-8038

Actually the streak reached 1,085. It just typifies how a guy who's supposed to be a wood-inducing RBI guy really doesn't do the pre-2010 A-Ram things to get runners home.

OK, I'll bite.  No, it doesn't do that at all.  Because he didn't go 1,085 PA without a sac fly.  He only went 44 (assuming Yeti's number is approximately right).  He cannot control whether or not he comes up in a sac fly situation, only whether or not he performs when he does come up in such a situation.  It's the same flawed logic that assumes that RBI is a meaningful statistic - a player cannot control whether or not the players in front of him get on base so he can drive them in.  Take D-Lee in 2005 - the poor guy had Korey and Neifi bat in front of him at times, which hurt his triple crown chances because he couldn't get the RBIs.  Is that his fault?

Bonk, I'm looking at Dunn's splits in 2004, and you're complaining about his lack of sac flies? Did you complain that you didn't get the family station wagon handed down to you when you turned 16 because instead your dad bought you a new Porsche?

Dunn hit well in "high-leverage" situations.

Dunn hit well when batting in one run and tie games.

Dunn got on base at a .438 clip with runners in scoring position.

[Bonk]

Actually, I would like to address this. Why? Well, I do like being an incessant prick who argues things with people who I perceive as dumber than myself. Where did you get that number? Is that some streak he had that Cincinnati reported on? And was this "900 Plate Appearances with a runner on third and less than 2 outs"? Because that's about the only time you can get a Sac Fly (minus the rare second to third ones). How can you judge a guy on a situational stat (much like RBIs, but that's for a different day, maybe tomorrow when you start using those to argue points) and use a span of "900 plate appearances" to indicate that HE did something wrong?

Now, I assume this stretch must have occurred in 2004 (and surrounding seasons) because he had no Sac Flies. However, he only had 44 PAs in that situation (Runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs). So, you're butthurt over that?

/reinserts Adam's huge fucking donkey dong

I'm pretty sure a batter is not credited with a SAC Fly (and is charged with an AB) on any flyout wherein the runner tags from any other base other than third and advances to the next base.

And yes, Dunn had some ridonkulous streak where he hadn't had a SAC fly in ages.  Why Bonk thinks that this sort of statistical aberration fairly signifies a blight on Dunn's career is beyond me, but here we are.

http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/this-week-in-sacrifice-flies-cincinnatis-ad-8038

Actually the streak reached 1,085. It just typifies how a guy who's supposed to be a wood-inducing RBI guy really doesn't do the pre-2010 A-Ram things to get runners home.

OK, I'll bite.  No, it doesn't do that at all.  Because he didn't go 1,085 PA without a sac fly.  He only went 44 (assuming Yeti's number is approximately right).  He cannot control whether or not he comes up in a sac fly situation, only whether or not he performs when he does come up in such a situation.  It's the same flawed logic that assumes that RBI is a meaningful statistic - a player cannot control whether or not the players in front of him get on base so he can drive them in.  Take D-Lee in 2005 - the poor guy had Korey and Neifi bat in front of him at times, which hurt his triple crown chances because he couldn't get the RBIs.  Is that his fault?

Bonk, I'm looking at Dunn's splits in 2004, and you're complaining about his lack of sac flies? Did you complain that you didn't get the family station wagon handed down to you when you turned 16 because instead your dad bought you a new Porsche?

Dunn hit well in "high-leverage" situations.

Dunn hit well when batting in one run and tie games.

Dunn got on base at a .438 clip with runners in scoring position.

Fine. He's still a .210 career hitter with RISP and two outs and .233 in the all-important "late and close" category.

I got to drive the '88 Skylark when I turned 17, but that lasted two weeks until I got a ticket for 69 in a 55. After a few months I was able to save up and buy my own car.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

The main difference between OBP and AVG is walks

You know, runs? That's how wins and losses are measured, in case you'd forgotten...

It's a veritable baseball master class from Bonk today.

[Bonk]

The main difference between OBP and AVG is walks

You know, runs? That's how wins and losses are measured, in case you'd forgotten...

It's a veritable baseball master class from Bonk today.

When people say that driving them in is unimportant...

[Brownie]

The main difference between OBP and AVG is walks

You know, runs? That's how wins and losses are measured, in case you'd forgotten...

It's a veritable baseball master class from Bonk today.

When people say that driving them in is unimportant...

What about the guy who gets the single (or walk) to put the guy on first into scoring position? Does that not count?

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Actually, I would like to address this. Why? Well, I do like being an incessant prick who argues things with people who I perceive as dumber than myself. Where did you get that number? Is that some streak he had that Cincinnati reported on? And was this "900 Plate Appearances with a runner on third and less than 2 outs"? Because that's about the only time you can get a Sac Fly (minus the rare second to third ones). How can you judge a guy on a situational stat (much like RBIs, but that's for a different day, maybe tomorrow when you start using those to argue points) and use a span of "900 plate appearances" to indicate that HE did something wrong?

Now, I assume this stretch must have occurred in 2004 (and surrounding seasons) because he had no Sac Flies. However, he only had 44 PAs in that situation (Runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs). So, you're butthurt over that?

/reinserts Adam's huge fucking donkey dong

I'm pretty sure a batter is not credited with a SAC Fly (and is charged with an AB) on any flyout wherein the runner tags from any other base other than third and advances to the next base.

And yes, Dunn had some ridonkulous streak where he hadn't had a SAC fly in ages.  Why Bonk thinks that this sort of statistical aberration fairly signifies a blight on Dunn's career is beyond me, but here we are.

http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/this-week-in-sacrifice-flies-cincinnatis-ad-8038

Actually the streak reached 1,085. It just typifies how a guy who's supposed to be a wood-inducing RBI guy really doesn't do the pre-2010 A-Ram things to get runners home.

OK, I'll bite.  No, it doesn't do that at all.  Because he didn't go 1,085 PA without a sac fly.  He only went 44 (assuming Yeti's number is approximately right).  He cannot control whether or not he comes up in a sac fly situation, only whether or not he performs when he does come up in such a situation.  It's the same flawed logic that assumes that RBI is a meaningful statistic - a player cannot control whether or not the players in front of him get on base so he can drive them in.  Take D-Lee in 2005 - the poor guy had Korey and Neifi bat in front of him at times, which hurt his triple crown chances because he couldn't get the RBIs.  Is that his fault?

Bonk, I'm looking at Dunn's splits in 2004, and you're complaining about his lack of sac flies? Did you complain that you didn't get the family station wagon handed down to you when you turned 16 because instead your dad bought you a new Porsche?

Dunn hit well in "high-leverage" situations.

Dunn hit well when batting in one run and tie games.

Dunn got on base at a .438 clip with runners in scoring position.

Fine. He's still a .210 career hitter with RISP and two outs and .233 in the all-important "late and close" category.

What's about his BA with RISP and two outs when the game is late and close on an odd-numbered day of the month in a city with the letter 't' in its name and the moon in the house of Libra?

[Bonk]

The main difference between OBP and AVG is walks

You know, runs? That's how wins and losses are measured, in case you'd forgotten...

It's a veritable baseball master class from Bonk today.

When people say that driving them in is unimportant...

What about the guy who gets the single (or walk) to put the guy on first into scoring position? Does that not count?

Yes, but I don't understand your point.

[Bort]

The main difference between OBP and AVG is walks

You know, runs? That's how wins and losses are measured, in case you'd forgotten...

It's a veritable baseball master class from Bonk today.

When people say that driving them in is unimportant...

What about the guy who gets the single (or walk) to put the guy on first into scoring position? Does that not count?

Yes, but I don't understand your point.

That's the least surprising thing I've read all day.

[Gilgamesh]

I stopped caring when Bonk announced that RBIs are meaningful stats.

Actually I stopped caring a while back, but really wanted to note how godawfully retarded that statement was.

[Yeti]

Alright here, You're a math major, but you're completely averse to appropriate mathematical analysis to a sport that lends itself very well to such analysis? Sure you struggled, but every part of mathematical analysis in baseball deals with actual tangible numbers.

So, anyway, Dunn has a 47% career Flyball percentage. Of that 47%, only 10.6% of them are infield flies. So, in 100 BIP (Balls in Play), he hits 47 fly balls, and only 11 of them are in the infield. So, hypothetically, of those 36 that aren't in the infield, most of them are deep enough to be a legitimate sacrifice fly depth ball. We all know that Dunn has the appropriate power to do so. So, basically one in every 3 balls in play is going to be a ball that could be a SAC fly kind of ball. So, the fact that he didn't have one of those flyballs in, say, 60 PAs (60 used to estimate how many of these specific PAs he would have had in such a streak) just shows that it's a statistical anomaly. I might actually be tired of this. Dunn is a helluva player. He'd be nice to have on the Cubs.

What's about his BA with RISP and two outs when the game is late and close on an odd-numbered day of the month in a city with the letter 't' in its name and the moon in the house of Libra?

http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showpost.php?s=a62c32aa74691dc046524d312511fe04&p=2283352&postcount=35

Last year though, he was 6th in the American League in hitting right-handers he was facing for the first time, after the seventh innning, at home. So that's something to keep in mind.

An interesting side note: that's the 14th one-run game for the Tigers already this season. Tops for any team north of the Mason-Dixon Line, whose home games are not played in a dome.

So with two down here in the 7th, Royals pitching continues to handcuff the Twins, Lou Collins to the plate and he can certainly attest to that. Lou is 0-11 the last 3 games, all Twins losses. He hit two bullets yesterday, but came up empty. Today, more of the same. Hanley looks in for the sign. Lou, by the way, has hit .416 lifetime versus Hanley in the month of September in even years. So that certainly bodes well for this at bat.

[Bonk]

Alright here, You're a math major, but you're completely averse to appropriate mathematical analysis to a sport that lends itself very well to such analysis? Sure you struggled, but every part of mathematical analysis in baseball deals with actual tangible numbers.

So, anyway, Dunn has a 47% career Flyball percentage. Of that 47%, only 10.6% of them are infield flies. So, in 100 BIP (Balls in Play), he hits 47 fly balls, and only 11 of them are in the infield. So, hypothetically, of those 36 that aren't in the infield, most of them are deep enough to be a legitimate sacrifice fly depth ball. We all know that Dunn has the appropriate power to do so. So, basically one in every 3 balls in play is going to be a ball that could be a SAC fly kind of ball. So, the fact that he didn't have one of those flyballs in, say, 60 PAs just shows that it's a statistical anomaly. I might actually be tired of this. Dunn is a helluva player. He'd be nice to have on the Cubs.

What's about his BA with RISP and two outs when the game is late and close on an odd-numbered day of the month in a city with the letter 't' in its name and the moon in the house of Libra?

http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showpost.php?s=a62c32aa74691dc046524d312511fe04&p=2283352&postcount=35

Last year though, he was 6th in the American League in hitting right-handers he was facing for the first time, after the seventh innning, at home. So that's something to keep in mind.

An interesting side note: that's the 14th one-run game for the Tigers already this season. Tops for any team north of the Mason-Dixon Line, whose home games are not played in a dome.

So with two down here in the 7th, Royals pitching continues to handcuff the Twins, Lou Collins to the plate and he can certainly attest to that. Lou is 0-11 the last 3 games, all Twins losses. He hit two bullets yesterday, but came up empty. Today, more of the same. Hanley looks in for the sign. Lou, by the way, has hit .416 lifetime versus Hanley in the month of September in even years. So that certainly bodes well for this at bat.

So if I understand you right, getting jammed vs. just missing a home run is merely random chance?

[Yeti]

Alright here, You're a math major, but you're completely averse to appropriate mathematical analysis to a sport that lends itself very well to such analysis? Sure you struggled, but every part of mathematical analysis in baseball deals with actual tangible numbers.

So, anyway, Dunn has a 47% career Flyball percentage. Of that 47%, only 10.6% of them are infield flies. So, in 100 BIP (Balls in Play), he hits 47 fly balls, and only 11 of them are in the infield. So, hypothetically, of those 36 that aren't in the infield, most of them are deep enough to be a legitimate sacrifice fly depth ball. We all know that Dunn has the appropriate power to do so. So, basically one in every 3 balls in play is going to be a ball that could be a SAC fly kind of ball. So, the fact that he didn't have one of those flyballs in, say, 60 PAs just shows that it's a statistical anomaly. I might actually be tired of this. Dunn is a helluva player. He'd be nice to have on the Cubs.

What's about his BA with RISP and two outs when the game is late and close on an odd-numbered day of the month in a city with the letter 't' in its name and the moon in the house of Libra?

http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showpost.php?s=a62c32aa74691dc046524d312511fe04&p=2283352&postcount=35

Last year though, he was 6th in the American League in hitting right-handers he was facing for the first time, after the seventh innning, at home. So that's something to keep in mind.

An interesting side note: that's the 14th one-run game for the Tigers already this season. Tops for any team north of the Mason-Dixon Line, whose home games are not played in a dome.

So with two down here in the 7th, Royals pitching continues to handcuff the Twins, Lou Collins to the plate and he can certainly attest to that. Lou is 0-11 the last 3 games, all Twins losses. He hit two bullets yesterday, but came up empty. Today, more of the same. Hanley looks in for the sign. Lou, by the way, has hit .416 lifetime versus Hanley in the month of September in even years. So that certainly bodes well for this at bat.

So if I understand you right, getting jammed vs. just missing a home run is merely random chance?

If I understood you, then maybe?

[Ivy6]

Alright here, You're a math major, but you're completely averse to appropriate mathematical analysis to a sport that lends itself very well to such analysis? Sure you struggled, but every part of mathematical analysis in baseball deals with actual tangible numbers.

So, anyway, Dunn has a 47% career Flyball percentage. Of that 47%, only 10.6% of them are infield flies. So, in 100 BIP (Balls in Play), he hits 47 fly balls, and only 11 of them are in the infield. So, hypothetically, of those 36 that aren't in the infield, most of them are deep enough to be a legitimate sacrifice fly depth ball. We all know that Dunn has the appropriate power to do so. So, basically one in every 3 balls in play is going to be a ball that could be a SAC fly kind of ball. So, the fact that he didn't have one of those flyballs in, say, 60 PAs just shows that it's a statistical anomaly. I might actually be tired of this. Dunn is a helluva player. He'd be nice to have on the Cubs.

What's about his BA with RISP and two outs when the game is late and close on an odd-numbered day of the month in a city with the letter 't' in its name and the moon in the house of Libra?

http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showpost.php?s=a62c32aa74691dc046524d312511fe04&p=2283352&postcount=35

Last year though, he was 6th in the American League in hitting right-handers he was facing for the first time, after the seventh innning, at home. So that's something to keep in mind.

An interesting side note: that's the 14th one-run game for the Tigers already this season. Tops for any team north of the Mason-Dixon Line, whose home games are not played in a dome.

So with two down here in the 7th, Royals pitching continues to handcuff the Twins, Lou Collins to the plate and he can certainly attest to that. Lou is 0-11 the last 3 games, all Twins losses. He hit two bullets yesterday, but came up empty. Today, more of the same. Hanley looks in for the sign. Lou, by the way, has hit .416 lifetime versus Hanley in the month of September in even years. So that certainly bodes well for this at bat.

So if I understand you right, getting jammed vs. just missing a home run is merely random chance?

Unpopular as it may be, I am with Bonk on this one.  There are a few facts here that we can all agree on about Adam Dunn other than he's really not a good HITTER.  He's got a low batting average because he walks all the time and if he didn't walk as much, his batting average would be higher.  Like you, I can assume that swinging at more pitches (ie- walking less) would lead to more hits and a higher average for a guy who does pretty well making contact with the baseball.

So we've established that he would have a higher average if he didn't walk as much.  Then there's the point about RBI which obviously he would have more on IF HE HAD MORE HITS.  More hits = more rbi because, as Bonk said, he played in shit lineups in CIN all the time.  (Although I disagree on Rich Aurelia--- I WATCHED him play in San Francisco and if you don't think that what i saw with my eyes was the reason that the Giants won so many games you are crazy) 

I also don't think he would be a good cub next year because this Cubs team does need to score more runs, which you do by driving them in, and that leads to wins and i just don't think that you can win games (or score runs, they are interchangeable) without hitting the ball.  But what do i know all i do is watch baseball with my eyes.

[Yeti]

I'm sure it's probably something that would fall on deaf ears, but some people here need to read Moneyball. It's not the end all, be all of stats but it's a great start. It was the start of my statistical awakening. There are some things about it that have been shown to not be the best analysis but it's still very good. It gives you a nice basis to rethink your views on the way baseball actual works.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

To be fair to Bonk, I'm guessing plenty of people here wouldn't necessarily champion this Cubs team signing Adam Dunn at this point in time.

If he'd left it at that, I'm not sure such a big deal would have been made out of it.

But he had to go and give his reason for not wanting Dunn. And it's an asinine reason. And now he's having to go even further in revealing the jackass logic butressing that asinine reason.

This inexorably leads to even those of us who might agree with the ultimate conclusion arguing against him out of sheer exasperation at his full frontal assault on sense and logic.

It's like Internet Chuck writ retarded.

El sueño de la razón produce monstruos.