Pollyellon banned me

[PenPho]

I'm sure it's probably something that would fall on deaf ears, but some people here need to read Moneyball. It's not the end all, be all of stats but it's a great start. It was the start of my statistical awakening. There are some things about it that have been shown to not be the best analysis but it's still very good. It gives you a nice basis to rethink your views on the way baseball actual works.

You know who should read it?

Billy Beane.

[PenPho]

To be fair to Bonk, I'm guessing plenty of people here wouldn't necessarily champion this Cubs team signing Adam Dunn at this point in time.

If he'd left it at that, I'm not sure such a big deal would have been made out of it.

But he had to go and give his reason for not wanting Dunn. And it's an asinine reason. And now he's having to go even further in revealing the jackass logic butressing that asinine reason.

This inexorably leads to even those of us who might agree with the ultimate conclusion arguing against him out of sheer exasperation at his full frontal assault on sense and logic.

It's like Internet Chuck writ retarded.

El sueño de la razón produce monstruos.

DPD to point out that Thrill figured out a way to incorporate butressing and asinine in the same sentence.
The only thing missing was rectus.

HOMO.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

To be fair to Bonk, I'm guessing plenty of people here wouldn't necessarily champion this Cubs team signing Adam Dunn at this point in time.

If he'd left it at that, I'm not sure such a big deal would have been made out of it.

But he had to go and give his reason for not wanting Dunn. And it's an asinine reason. And now he's having to go even further in revealing the jackass logic butressing that asinine reason.

This inexorably leads to even those of us who might agree with the ultimate conclusion arguing against him out of sheer exasperation at his full frontal assault on sense and logic.

It's like Internet Chuck writ retarded.

El sueño de la razón produce monstruos.

DPD to point out that Thrill figured out a way to incorporate butressing and asinine in the same sentence.
The only thing missing was rectus.

HOMO.

Rectus? Bonk nearly killed us!

[Yeti]

To be fair to Bonk, I'm guessing plenty of people here wouldn't necessarily champion this Cubs team signing Adam Dunn at this point in time.

If he'd left it at that, I'm not sure such a big deal would have been made out of it.

But he had to go and give his reason for not wanting Dunn. And it's an asinine reason. And now he's having to go even further in revealing the jackass logic butressing that asinine reason.

This inexorably leads to even those of us who might agree with the ultimate conclusion arguing against him out of sheer exasperation at his full frontal assault on sense and logic.

It's like Internet Chuck writ retarded.

El sueño de la razón produce monstruos.

THI. Dunn definitely doesn't mean WS11! Throw a couple other players in there, then it's a different story.

[CT III]

Shit, are we really debating Adam Dunn's batting average with RISP?

Adam Dunn has hit 346 home runs.  One for just less than every 14 ABs.

When the VORPDonkey stands in the batter's box, he is in scoring position.

[Internet Apex]

12 Ks. 23 knocked in. FYI. That same season, Aramis Ramirez had 29 similar PAs with 9 walks, 3 K's and 21 knocked in. Fuck Dunn and fuck 2004.

[Ivy6]

Shit, are we really debating Adam Dunn's batting average with RISP?

Adam Dunn has hit 346 home runs.  One for just less than every 14 ABs.

When the VORPDonkey stands in the batter's box, he is in scoring position.

This is asanine....you're saying that theoretically the guy could be batting .071 (1-14) and be a good player because that one hit was a home run?  Not even close, my friend.

Besides, even if he managed to hit better than .100 or whatever, he would just stand on first base and no one else could get around him.  So........i guess i don't see your point.  We all agree that Adam Dunn can hit home runs.  What we also agree on is that it takes more than home runs to play baseball.

[CT III]

Shit, are we really debating Adam Dunn's batting average with RISP?

Adam Dunn has hit 346 home runs.  One for just less than every 14 ABs.

When the VORPDonkey stands in the batter's box, he is in scoring position.

This is asanine....you're saying that theoretically the guy could be batting .071 (1-14) and be a good player because that one hit was a home run?  Not even close, my friend.

Besides, even if he managed to hit better than .100 or whatever, he would just stand on first base and no one else could get around him.  So........i guess i don't see your point.  We all agree that Adam Dunn can hit home runs.  What we also agree on is that it takes more than home runs to play baseball.

I don't agree with this at all.  I want home runs.  Majestic, glorious, momentus home runs.

[Ivy6]

Shit, are we really debating Adam Dunn's batting average with RISP?

Adam Dunn has hit 346 home runs.  One for just less than every 14 ABs.

When the VORPDonkey stands in the batter's box, he is in scoring position.

This is asanine....you're saying that theoretically the guy could be batting .071 (1-14) and be a good player because that one hit was a home run?  Not even close, my friend.

Besides, even if he managed to hit better than .100 or whatever, he would just stand on first base and no one else could get around him.  So........i guess i don't see your point.  We all agree that Adam Dunn can hit home runs.  What we also agree on is that it takes more than home runs to play baseball.

I don't agree with this at all.  I want home runs.  Majestic, glorious, momentus home runs.

It's ok to want home runs, but you also need to pitch and score runs and play defense and hustle to actually play.

[R-V]

I like it when Bonk shows up, because he reminds me that meatball fans still exist even in the enlightened space of the Desipiotubes.

I still don't understand why it's a tick AGAINST Dunn that pitchers would pitch around him. How is this his fault? And isn't it a sign that pitchers - who sometimes base their pitching strategy on SCOUTING reports prepared by Tocco-esque SCOUTS, not printouts from the Bill James Queeromatic 5000atron Machine - respect him, and therefore he might be a pretty good hitter?

And some people here remind me how out of touch with reality statheads can be.

Also, show me where I said walks are bad with RISP? I think BA is more important because unless he walks with the bases clogged, that's the only way runs score. You know, runs? That's how wins and losses are measured, in case you'd forgotten, and he's paid to drive them in.

How about here?

Yes, because drawing a walk when you're being pitched around in a shitty lineup < getting a hit. That's always been his problem. When pitchers have to bear down and get him out to get out of a jam, they can usually do it.

Anyway - Thrill is right. I think many people here agree with the contention that whatever contract Dunn gets on the market will probably be too long/too much.

But your stubborn dismissal of any stats other than RBI and BA with RISP is blockheaded. What would you think if someone summarily dismissed the value of advance scouting in baseball? You need scouting AND statistical information to evaluate players. I'm sure Tim Wilken has a lot of guys working for him who scout baseball players for a living. That stuff is extremely valuable - Batter X is vulnerable to certain pitch locations, or Pitcher Y has an anal fistula that flares up around pitch #80, so he loses a bit on his fastball.

But we're not professional scouts. We're just amateur numbnuts who watch a lot of baseball, but not nearly enough that our memory or perception of what a player can or can't do should override...actual historical information about what the player has done.

[Eli]

It's ok to want home runs, but you also need to pitch and score runs and play defense and hustle to actually play.

And this is why I suggested several pages ago that the Cubs sign Adam Dunn to pitch.  You'd get pitching AND home runs.

[Slaky]

I'm being slapped in the face with the memory of Redbeard claiming he would never want ARod on the Cubs because he was a jerk.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

I'm being slapped in the face with the memory of Redbeard claiming he would never want ARod on the Cubs because he was a jerk.

How about this one?

You seem to be dodging my real question.  Are you saying that his behavior is OK, and that he deserves absolutely no backlash assuming the facts are as reported?

I think he deserves to take some grief for his actions. That said, as Pen notes, he's one of the guys that got them to this point in the first place.

My bigger quibble is with this (a far cry from saying he deserves more than "absolutely no backlash" for this behavior)...

If I were a GM, this guy would be on my list of players I wouldn't get near with Joe Francis' cock.

Are you saying you wouldn't want this CLUBHOUSE CANCER anywhere near the Cubs, for example?

Because that would be a ludicrous thing to say.

It's less about him being a "Clubhouse Cancer", and more about the fact that I'd be nervous paying this guy an average of $19M over seven years when he clearly doesn't take care of himself...and apparently, has some pretty shitty judgment to go along with it.   If there's anything we've learned recently from the thrilling action of Cubs baseball...it should be the damage of bad/risky contracts that you can't unload.

Here's Cabrera's contract schedule:   08:$11.3M, 09:$15M, 10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M

Sorry, you can have that.  Also, First Basemen with low .900 OPS basically grow on trees.  There were 12 of them that had a qualifying number of ABs.   Cabrera was eighth on the list.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=3&statType=1&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&sitSplit=&venueID=&section1=1&subScope=pos&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2009&&sortByStat=OPS

So yea...I don't really feel like I need him for that price.

.343/.430/.636/1.066 to date.

And, to a far lesser extent, this:

http://www.desipio.com/messageboard/index.php?topic=7316.0

(Which reminds me...)

[Eli]

Anyway - Thrill is right. I think many people here agree with the contention that whatever contract Dunn gets on the market will probably be too long/too much.

That's been brought up in this thread quite a bit, but I'm not so sure Dunn is a lock for a massive, long-term contract.  He was recently a free agent and all he could get was two years and $20 million from the Nationals.  Granted, he had one of his worst seasons ever in his free agency year (an .889 OPS with probably no sacrifice flies), which may have deflated his value a bit.  He's been better this year, but he's also two years older and I think there's still a perception around the league that he's severely flawed, which might be reflected in the Nats being unable to get a decent offer for him.

I don't know if he'll get much more than 3 years at $14-15 million a year. If I'm Jim Hendry -- and let's hope I never am -- I'd take a chance on him at that rate.

[R-V]

Anyway - Thrill is right. I think many people here agree with the contention that whatever contract Dunn gets on the market will probably be too long/too much.

That's been brought up in this thread quite a bit, but I'm not so sure Dunn is a lock for a massive, long-term contract.  He was recently a free agent and all he could get was two years and $20 million from the Nationals.  Granted, he had one of his worst seasons ever in his free agency year (an .889 OPS with probably no sacrifice flies), which may have deflated his value a bit.  He's been better this year, but he's also two years older and I think there's still a perception around the league that he's severely flawed, which might be reflected in the Nats being unable to get a decent offer for him.

I don't know if he'll get much more than 3 years at $14-15 million a year. If I'm Jim Hendry -- and let's hope I never am -- I'd take a chance on him at that rate.

Good point, I forgot he only got a 2 year deal from the Nats. Now I just want Hendry to sign him - money be damned - so Bonk can start a thread to dissect every non-sac-fly-at-bat of SelfishDonkey's Cubs career.