The Unresolved Bullpen Angst Thread

[Eli]

I actually was saying, in response to BK's post about "when he was used properly," that Wuertz was best with runners on.  He was incredible at getting out of jams.  All his trouble came when he had to start off an inning himself and would seem to create his own trouble to get out of.

Code Select Expand

                       G IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Bases Empty   272 156.0 133 28 25 21 59 169 1.44 1.23 .219
Runners On   253 152.2 125 104 93 9 82 162 5.48 1.36 .239

[Weebs]

I actually was saying, in response to BK's post about "when he was used properly," that Wuertz was best with runners on.  He was incredible at getting out of jams.  All his trouble came when he had to start off an inning himself and would seem to create his own trouble to get out of.

Code Select Expand

                       G IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Bases Empty   272 156.0 133 28 25 21 59 169 1.44 1.23 .219
Runners On   253 152.2 125 104 93 9 82 162 5.48 1.36 .239

What are you trying to prove here?  That his ERA and WHIP were higher with Runners on?  Yeah, I generally think that's how it works.

[Eli]

I actually was saying, in response to BK's post about "when he was used properly," that Wuertz was best with runners on.  He was incredible at getting out of jams.  All his trouble came when he had to start off an inning himself and would seem to create his own trouble to get out of.

Code Select Expand

                       G IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Bases Empty   272 156.0 133 28 25 21 59 169 1.44 1.23 .219
Runners On   253 152.2 125 104 93 9 82 162 5.48 1.36 .239

What are you trying to prove here?  That his ERA and WHIP were higher with Runners on?  Yeah, I generally think that's how it works.

No, you said he was "incredible" with runners on.  The numbers basically look like a wash to me.  More homers allowed with bases empty, more walks and hits with guys on.

[Weebs]

I actually was saying, in response to BK's post about "when he was used properly," that Wuertz was best with runners on.  He was incredible at getting out of jams.  All his trouble came when he had to start off an inning himself and would seem to create his own trouble to get out of.

Code Select Expand

                       G IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Bases Empty   272 156.0 133 28 25 21 59 169 1.44 1.23 .219
Runners On   253 152.2 125 104 93 9 82 162 5.48 1.36 .239

What are you trying to prove here?  That his ERA and WHIP were higher with Runners on?  Yeah, I generally think that's how it works.

No, you said he was "incredible" with runners on.  The numbers basically look like a wash to me.  More homers allowed with bases empty, more walks and hits with guys on.

Okay, this shit got super confusing because of the phrasing.  Wuertz was great with inherited runners.  He wasn't as good when he started an inning himself.  Therefore, his Runners On stats represent both situations, but the ER could reflect both runners he let in after the ones he inherited or the ones he let in when he started an inning.  I remember looking for the stats a while back of how many inherited runners he let score and how good he was in those situations, but I think the runs were the only stats I was able to come up with.  He was top 3 in the majors for a few years in a row.

[Internet Apex]

Wuertz's slider if filthy this year

I know he gets a lot of hate, but Wuertz was always pretty effective with the Cubs.

I don't understand why he got hate at all.  When he was used properly, he was terrific.

I think it's the whole "Handle With Care" tag that got on Lou and Hendry's nerves and got him shipped out. As a fan, it kind of bugs the piss out of me too. Oh, for the days of pure unadulterated use of PEDs. Times as simple as American League baseball.

We all went over the "handle with care" thing a while back it turned out that it wasn't true.

Actually'd.

[Internet Apex]

Do you remember how Wuertz was pretty good when rested but absolutely useless when used on consecutive days?

I remember people talking about it, yes. But ...

You might have some stats somewhere that make it look like that's not the case. Maybe you do. I don't know.

Yesssssss!

Michael Wuertz, 2006-2008:

0 day's rest: 2.35 ERA
1 day's rest: 3.50 ERA
2 day's rest: 4.23 ERA

I'll play statfag and feel free to VORP-whip me if this is out of line.

But is ERA really the most effective measurement of a pitcher coming out of the pen? Generally with runners on base? Just a question. Harmless, at that.

I'll hang up and wait for an answer.

Here's all the stats you should want for Wuertz's career.  Like Eli said, the "Wuertz can't pitch on consecutive days," is, for the most part, a load of shit.

Code Select Expand

I         Split  G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB  SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
   2nd in DHGR  1   4   4  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   1       .000 .000 .000 .000   0   0   0  0  0   0  .000  -100
      0 DaysGR 76 284 242 34 59 13  2 11  4  2 34  65  1.91 .244 .337 .450 .787 109   6   1  5  2   3  .286   129
       1 DayGR 96 409 362 35 73 15  1  7  8  4 41 114  2.78 .202 .281 .307 .588 111   2   0  4  2   4  .272    73
      2 DaysGR 56 254 220 29 57  9  1  7  6  1 32  48  1.50 .259 .350 .405 .755  89   6   0  0  2   8  .299   121
      3 DaysGR 23  95  83  8 17  3  0  2  0  1  9  20  2.22 .205 .277 .313 .590  26   3   0  1  2   1  .238    73
      4 DaysGR 11  39  36  1  4  2  1  0  1  0  2  13  6.50 .111 .158 .222 .380   8   0   0  1  0   1  .174    10
      5 DaysGR  5  20  17  4  5  1  1  0  1  1  2   4  2.00 .294 .368 .471 .839   8   0   0  1  0   1  .385   145
     6+ DaysGR 19  97  82 12 25  7  0  1  6  2 12  25  2.08 .305 .389 .427 .816  35   2   0  2  1   0  .421   140

Is this really going to turn into "The One That Got Away" thread?
Because that would be a really shitty thread.

Agreed.

I do think what Wuertz and Aaaaaaardsma are doing should call into question Rothschild's competence though.

Am I reading this wrong or does it show his OPS-against went up 200 points with 0 days rest as opposed to one? Or are these somebody else's numbers? Did he not give up 4 more HRs in over 100 fewer PAs? Didn't see his BB/K drop nearly a full point? Somebody please help my stupid ass learn to read.

[Oleg]

Do you remember how Wuertz was pretty good when rested but absolutely useless when used on consecutive days?

I remember people talking about it, yes. But ...

You might have some stats somewhere that make it look like that's not the case. Maybe you do. I don't know.

Yesssssss!

Michael Wuertz, 2006-2008:

0 day's rest: 2.35 ERA
1 day's rest: 3.50 ERA
2 day's rest: 4.23 ERA

I'll play statfag and feel free to VORP-whip me if this is out of line.

But is ERA really the most effective measurement of a pitcher coming out of the pen? Generally with runners on base? Just a question. Harmless, at that.

I'll hang up and wait for an answer.

Here's all the stats you should want for Wuertz's career.  Like Eli said, the "Wuertz can't pitch on consecutive days," is, for the most part, a load of shit.

Code Select Expand

I         Split  G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB  SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
   2nd in DHGR  1   4   4  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   1       .000 .000 .000 .000   0   0   0  0  0   0  .000  -100
      0 DaysGR 76 284 242 34 59 13  2 11  4  2 34  65  1.91 .244 .337 .450 .787 109   6   1  5  2   3  .286   129
       1 DayGR 96 409 362 35 73 15  1  7  8  4 41 114  2.78 .202 .281 .307 .588 111   2   0  4  2   4  .272    73
      2 DaysGR 56 254 220 29 57  9  1  7  6  1 32  48  1.50 .259 .350 .405 .755  89   6   0  0  2   8  .299   121
      3 DaysGR 23  95  83  8 17  3  0  2  0  1  9  20  2.22 .205 .277 .313 .590  26   3   0  1  2   1  .238    73
      4 DaysGR 11  39  36  1  4  2  1  0  1  0  2  13  6.50 .111 .158 .222 .380   8   0   0  1  0   1  .174    10
      5 DaysGR  5  20  17  4  5  1  1  0  1  1  2   4  2.00 .294 .368 .471 .839   8   0   0  1  0   1  .385   145
     6+ DaysGR 19  97  82 12 25  7  0  1  6  2 12  25  2.08 .305 .389 .427 .816  35   2   0  2  1   0  .421   140

Is this really going to turn into "The One That Got Away" thread?
Because that would be a really shitty thread.

Agreed.

I do think what Wuertz and Aaaaaaardsma are doing should call into question Rothschild's competence though.

Am I reading this wrong or does it show his OPS-against went up 200 points with 0 days rest as opposed to one?

I guess it also shows that if you're going to sit him two days, you might as well sit him three.

[Internet Apex]

Do you remember how Wuertz was pretty good when rested but absolutely useless when used on consecutive days?

I remember people talking about it, yes. But ...

You might have some stats somewhere that make it look like that's not the case. Maybe you do. I don't know.

Yesssssss!

Michael Wuertz, 2006-2008:

0 day's rest: 2.35 ERA
1 day's rest: 3.50 ERA
2 day's rest: 4.23 ERA

I'll play statfag and feel free to VORP-whip me if this is out of line.

But is ERA really the most effective measurement of a pitcher coming out of the pen? Generally with runners on base? Just a question. Harmless, at that.

I'll hang up and wait for an answer.

Here's all the stats you should want for Wuertz's career.  Like Eli said, the "Wuertz can't pitch on consecutive days," is, for the most part, a load of shit.

Code Select Expand

I         Split  G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB  SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
   2nd in DHGR  1   4   4  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   1       .000 .000 .000 .000   0   0   0  0  0   0  .000  -100
      0 DaysGR 76 284 242 34 59 13  2 11  4  2 34  65  1.91 .244 .337 .450 .787 109   6   1  5  2   3  .286   129
       1 DayGR 96 409 362 35 73 15  1  7  8  4 41 114  2.78 .202 .281 .307 .588 111   2   0  4  2   4  .272    73
      2 DaysGR 56 254 220 29 57  9  1  7  6  1 32  48  1.50 .259 .350 .405 .755  89   6   0  0  2   8  .299   121
      3 DaysGR 23  95  83  8 17  3  0  2  0  1  9  20  2.22 .205 .277 .313 .590  26   3   0  1  2   1  .238    73
      4 DaysGR 11  39  36  1  4  2  1  0  1  0  2  13  6.50 .111 .158 .222 .380   8   0   0  1  0   1  .174    10
      5 DaysGR  5  20  17  4  5  1  1  0  1  1  2   4  2.00 .294 .368 .471 .839   8   0   0  1  0   1  .385   145
     6+ DaysGR 19  97  82 12 25  7  0  1  6  2 12  25  2.08 .305 .389 .427 .816  35   2   0  2  1   0  .421   140

Is this really going to turn into "The One That Got Away" thread?
Because that would be a really shitty thread.

Agreed.

I do think what Wuertz and Aaaaaaardsma are doing should call into question Rothschild's competence though.

Am I reading this wrong or does it show his OPS-against went up 200 points with 0 days rest as opposed to one?

I guess it also shows that if you're going to sit him two days, you might as well sit him three.

Gee, I wish we still had a guy like that.

[Eli]

Do you remember how Wuertz was pretty good when rested but absolutely useless when used on consecutive days?

I remember people talking about it, yes. But ...

You might have some stats somewhere that make it look like that's not the case. Maybe you do. I don't know.

Yesssssss!

Michael Wuertz, 2006-2008:

0 day's rest: 2.35 ERA
1 day's rest: 3.50 ERA
2 day's rest: 4.23 ERA

I'll play statfag and feel free to VORP-whip me if this is out of line.

But is ERA really the most effective measurement of a pitcher coming out of the pen? Generally with runners on base? Just a question. Harmless, at that.

I'll hang up and wait for an answer.

Here's all the stats you should want for Wuertz's career.  Like Eli said, the "Wuertz can't pitch on consecutive days," is, for the most part, a load of shit.

Code Select Expand

I         Split  G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB  SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
   2nd in DHGR  1   4   4  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0   1       .000 .000 .000 .000   0   0   0  0  0   0  .000  -100
      0 DaysGR 76 284 242 34 59 13  2 11  4  2 34  65  1.91 .244 .337 .450 .787 109   6   1  5  2   3  .286   129
       1 DayGR 96 409 362 35 73 15  1  7  8  4 41 114  2.78 .202 .281 .307 .588 111   2   0  4  2   4  .272    73
      2 DaysGR 56 254 220 29 57  9  1  7  6  1 32  48  1.50 .259 .350 .405 .755  89   6   0  0  2   8  .299   121
      3 DaysGR 23  95  83  8 17  3  0  2  0  1  9  20  2.22 .205 .277 .313 .590  26   3   0  1  2   1  .238    73
      4 DaysGR 11  39  36  1  4  2  1  0  1  0  2  13  6.50 .111 .158 .222 .380   8   0   0  1  0   1  .174    10
      5 DaysGR  5  20  17  4  5  1  1  0  1  1  2   4  2.00 .294 .368 .471 .839   8   0   0  1  0   1  .385   145
     6+ DaysGR 19  97  82 12 25  7  0  1  6  2 12  25  2.08 .305 .389 .427 .816  35   2   0  2  1   0  .421   140

Is this really going to turn into "The One That Got Away" thread?
Because that would be a really shitty thread.

Agreed.

I do think what Wuertz and Aaaaaaardsma are doing should call into question Rothschild's competence though.

Am I reading this wrong or does it show his OPS-against went up 200 points with 0 days rest as opposed to one?

I guess it also shows that if you're going to sit him two days, you might as well sit him three.

Gee, I wish we still had a guy like that.

Me too.

[Internet Apex]

Well, I always liked him. If he's finally figured things out and continues to have success, I'm glad it's in the AL if not for the Cubs.

[Kermit, B.]

Well, I always liked him. If he's finally figured things out and continues to have success, I'm glad it's in the AL if not for the Cubs.

But he had already pretty much figured things out with the Cubs.  He was good, and I was surprised they let him go so easily.

[CT III]

Well, I always liked him. If he's finally figured things out and continues to have success, I'm glad it's in the AL if not for the Cubs.

But he had already pretty much figured things out with the Cubs.  He was good, and I was surprised they let him go so easily.

Ah, it don't mean shit until Stoney Tweets it.

[Tank]

Well, I always liked him. If he's finally figured things out and continues to have success, I'm glad it's in the AL if not for the Cubs.

But he had already pretty much figured things out with the Cubs.  He was good, and I was surprised they let him go so easily.

Yeah, he was good with the Cubs. And I always liked him.

But he wasn't near as good with the Cubs as he has been this season in Oakland...

Year    G     IP      BF     ERA     ERA+   WHIP     BABIP    FIP     BA       OBP      SLG      OPS      
2004    31    29      124    4.34    101    1.345    0.258    4.53    0.218    0.325    0.416    0.741    
2005    75    75.2    319    3.81    116    1.322    0.303    3.28    0.219    0.316    0.321    0.638    
2006    41    40.2    175    2.66    174    1.254    0.292    3.93    0.226    0.302    0.374    0.677    
2007    73    72.1    312    3.48    134    1.369    0.309    3.94    0.234    0.320    0.392    0.712    
2008    45    44.2    189    3.63    123    1.433    0.294    4.30    0.267    0.340    0.400    0.740    
2009    44    46.1    180    2.72    150    0.993    0.301    2.10    0.201    0.257    0.335    0.592    
                                                    
Year    H/9    HR/9   BB/9   SO/9   SO/BB   LOB%     IR    IS    IS%    RAR    WAR    Dollars  Salary
2004    6.8    1.2    5.3    9.3    1.76    74.9%    26    8     31%    0.3    0.0    $0.1     $0.3
2005    7.1    0.7    4.8    10.6   2.23    69.9%    50    14    28%    12.4   1.3    $4.3     $0.3
2006    7.7    1.1    3.5    9.3    2.63    84.4%    37    16    43%    4.8    0.5    $1.8     $0.4
2007    8.0    1.0    4.4    9.8    2.26    78.6%    38    5     13%    6.8    0.7    $2.8     $0.4
2008    8.9    0.8    4.0    6.0    1.50    70.2%    40    12    30%    2.0    0.2    $0.9     $0.9
2009    6.4    0.6    2.5    11.8   4.69    74.2%    24    6     25%    15.8   1.6    $7.1   

FIP = fielding independent ERA
IR = inherited runners
IS/IS% = number and % of inherited runners who scored

Nearly all of his numbers are better this season, but have a look at his WHIP, K/BB ratio, OPS against and FIB in particular. It's a world of difference.

What about actual production?

RAR and WAR are Fangraphs metrics expressing players' marginal value in terms of the number of cumulative runs and wins they're worth compared with a replacement player (calculated from park-adjusted fielding independent pitching). "Dollars" expresses this same value in terms of millions of 2009 dollars.

Read more: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues

As you can see from the above, they reckon he's already been worth more in terms of actual production in his 46 1/3 IP so far in 2009 than he had been in any one season here. Indeed, if he keeps this up, he projects to be worth more in 2009 than he was in both of his full Cubs seasons (2005 and 2007) combined.

Park factor adjustment or no, though, I can't shake the sense that at least some of this improvement springs from a move to a reputedly pitcher-friendly park. And this sense is only reinforced by a glance at Wuertz's eye-popping 2009 home-away splits...

Split  G    IP     BF   ERA    WHIP    BABIP   BA      OBP     SLG     OPS     H    R    ER   HR   SO/9   SO/BB
Home   20   21.2   77   0.42   0.646   0.163   0.113   0.182   0.183   0.365   8    1    1    1    11.2   4.50
Away   24   24.2   103  4.74   1.297   0.390   0.269   0.314   0.452   0.765   25   14   13   2    12.4   4.86

Those BABIP numbers seem to suggest he's been pretty unlucky on the road and really fucking lucky at home. Still... just one earned run at home?

Sure, it sucks that the Cubs dumped a solid reliever for two guys who are already out of the system (Richie Robnett was outright released and picked up by the Yankees, Justin Sellers was sent to the Dodgers for a PTBNL or cash, likely the latter). And it sucks that he was basically replaced with Heilman.

But let's not get too crazy. Oakland seems to suit him well. And, in any event, he's still just a reliever.

[Pre]

He wasn't as good when he started an inning himself.

If only baseball reference had some kind of simple stat to show that once again you're
shitting on a thread with crazy.

Oh, here it is.

Code Select Expand


I          Split   G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
    First Batter 309 309 268 41 66 10  4 10  2  0 35 72  2.06 .246 .331 .425 .757 114   4   0  4  2   0  .298   122
    Leadoff Inn. 231 275 249  8 54  9  0  8  0  0 26 69  2.65 .217 .291 .349 .640  87   0   0  0  0   0  .267    88


Instead of making an excuse and mutating your-- for lack of better
words I'll call it a-- theory to some other similar crap, feel free to go
back to posting about how awesome you think you are at some
video game for us all to ignore.

Just because you keep saying the same inane "analysis" doesn't
make it true.  You're like Joe Morgan claiming Banks hit most of
his home runs into the baskets that didn't exist during his career.

[Kermit, B.]

He wasn't as good when he started an inning himself.

If only baseball reference had some kind of simple stat to show that once again you're
shitting on a thread with crazy.

Oh, here it is.

Code Select Expand


I          Split   G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB BAbip tOPS+
    First Batter 309 309 268 41 66 10  4 10  2  0 35 72  2.06 .246 .331 .425 .757 114   4   0  4  2   0  .298   122
    Leadoff Inn. 231 275 249  8 54  9  0  8  0  0 26 69  2.65 .217 .291 .349 .640  87   0   0  0  0   0  .267    88


Instead of making an excuse and mutating your-- for lack of better
words I'll call it a-- theory to some other similar crap, feel free to go
back to posting about how awesome you think you are at some
video game for us all to ignore.

Just because you keep saying the same inane "analysis" doesn't
make it true.  You're like Joe Morgan claiming Banks hit most of
his home runs into the baskets that didn't exist during his career.

1:42 AM?  A-Pre is going to kill you today.