The 2010 Cubs Free Agent and Roster Moves Thread: SAVEENG OUR KUBBEEZ!!11

[ChuckD]

I think we'd all agree that if Fukudome had 15-20 seasons just like this one he wouldn't be banging down the door of the Hall of Fame.

ORLY?

[Canadouche]

I think we'd all agree that if Fukudome had 15-20 seasons just like this one he wouldn't be banging down the door of the Hall of Fame.

ORLY?

You know many .272 career hitters with less than 200 career homeruns, 3000 hits, and defense just shy of Gold Glove caliber running around Cooperstown right now?*

(*that weren't voted in by a Veterans Committee)

Aside: Fangraphs rocks and certainly points out how a player like Fooky might be underrated ... but has anybody ever noticed that, according to that site, Theriot is defensively a Top 10 shortstop (and 3rd best in the NL) and is overall the 6th most valuable in all of baseball?  Does that make him great too?

[Pre]

You need to get laid.

I think it's fun that you're wrong about everything in life, not just baseball.

I'm newly married.  I think I'm doing ok Romeo.

[Canadouche]

You need to get laid.

I think it's fun that you're wrong about everything in life, not just baseball.

I'm newly married.  I think I'm doing ok Romeo.

You're doing it wrong.

[R-V]

I wish that fucker Fukudome could do a better job of making sure runners get on base before he comes up, then don't score until he gets his hits.

¿Qué?

But if you're arguing that he's the leadoff hitter we've all been waiting for -- and I think that's what you're trying to say there -- then maybe he should have better than a 43% success rate at stealing bases.

Actually, its not.  The fact that he wouldn't get more than 80 RBI has nothing to do with how good of a hitter he is; it has to do what what the hitters in front of him do.  


And stolen bases are fucking stupid, too, by the way.  

I'd agree with that.  I never really cared if the leadoff guy steals a ton of bases, but he's not really helping anybody if he tries to steal bases and fails.  I'd rather he hit all those doubles and triples and get on base at a .390 ratio and never even try to steal a base if he's going to fail so regularly.  

Edited to add: Fukudome is also on pace to score only 78 runs despite his high OBP.  Obviously it's not his fault that the people batting behind him have failed to drive him in regularly, though.  Then again, of his 358 at bats this season, only 84 have come in the leadoff spot.

He's on pace to have 596 plate appearances.  If he had 596 plate appearances from the leadoff spot, he'd be on pace to score 88 runs, despite his .321 AVG and .437 OBP from that spot.  I understand, though, that he can't help that the hitters behind him aren't able to drive him in.  I was merely comparing him with Mark Grace, a guy who spent the majority of his career batting 3rd -- or even cleanup -- and never drove in 100 runs in a season.

If he had 596 plate appearances batting 3rd, where he has the majority of his at bats this season, he'd be on pace to drive in 55 RBI.  I understand, though, that he can't help if he doesn't have many hitters in front of him to drive in.  Then again, he does have decent numbers with runners on.

I'm glad that Fukudome has turned his season around after a couple of very ugly months.  I agree that his defensive skills are a huge plus -- he'd be even better in RF.  As a leadoff man he's a good choice, so long as he doesn't actually try to steal bases.  I merely contested his "great"ness, based on his lack of power, his modest batting average, and his inability to hit lefties.  Pre -- for somebody who never called him great either -- sure did get upset at my "cherry picking" his statistics ... considering that I basically laid out his entire offensive line, including OBP and OPS, minus doubles and triples.  Oh well.

For a self-professed huge loser dork, you have a truly awful understanding of how to use statistics to evaluate a player. Stolen bases and runs, huzzah!

[Dr. Nguyen Van Falk]

For starters, Kosuke has been playing baseball for well over 11 months. If you're gonna be a nitpicky asshole yourself...

Maybe he's spent the winter months playing in the Dominican, or back home in Japan, but the actual months he's spent playing in the bigs have been two Aprils, Mays, Junes, Julys, and Augusts, along with one September/October.  That's 11 months of big league baseball.  In those 11 months, he's batted below .200 in August of '08 (.193), in September of '08 (.178), and as recently as in June of '09 (.169).  Perhaps he's as streaky a hitter as Soriano.

You clearly missed my admittedly pedantic point:

... his illustrious 11 months-so-far of playing baseball...

Think about it.

Look at that line a little closer...

Did you even read my fucking post?

...in May he batted 60 points lower than he did in April.  In June he batted 108 points lower than he did in May.  He batted 138 points higher in July than he did in June, and so far in August he's batting 32 points lower than he did in July.  Recognizing that any player will have slumps and hot streaks, those are still some very low dips and very high peaks.

I'm fine with that, as long as the numbers pan out in the end.

Batting average?

Really?

Okay. Accepting the importance of batting average for sake of argument... Are you saying that "batting 32 points lower than he did in July" means his .275 average this month qualifies as either a "slump" or a "very low dip"? Likewise his May average of .277?

I'm not disputing that his June sucked. What's your point?

You need to get laid.

I think it's fun that you're wrong about everything in life, not just baseball.

I'm newly married.  I think I'm doing ok Romeo.

You're doing it wrong.

You suck at making sense.

[Canadouche]

I wish that fucker Fukudome could do a better job of making sure runners get on base before he comes up, then don't score until he gets his hits.

¿Qué?

But if you're arguing that he's the leadoff hitter we've all been waiting for -- and I think that's what you're trying to say there -- then maybe he should have better than a 43% success rate at stealing bases.

Actually, its not.  The fact that he wouldn't get more than 80 RBI has nothing to do with how good of a hitter he is; it has to do what what the hitters in front of him do.  


And stolen bases are fucking stupid, too, by the way.  

I'd agree with that.  I never really cared if the leadoff guy steals a ton of bases, but he's not really helping anybody if he tries to steal bases and fails.  I'd rather he hit all those doubles and triples and get on base at a .390 ratio and never even try to steal a base if he's going to fail so regularly.  

Edited to add: Fukudome is also on pace to score only 78 runs despite his high OBP.  Obviously it's not his fault that the people batting behind him have failed to drive him in regularly, though.  Then again, of his 358 at bats this season, only 84 have come in the leadoff spot.

He's on pace to have 596 plate appearances.  If he had 596 plate appearances from the leadoff spot, he'd be on pace to score 88 runs, despite his .321 AVG and .437 OBP from that spot.  I understand, though, that he can't help that the hitters behind him aren't able to drive him in.  I was merely comparing him with Mark Grace, a guy who spent the majority of his career batting 3rd -- or even cleanup -- and never drove in 100 runs in a season.

If he had 596 plate appearances batting 3rd, where he has the majority of his at bats this season, he'd be on pace to drive in 55 RBI.  I understand, though, that he can't help if he doesn't have many hitters in front of him to drive in.  Then again, he does have decent numbers with runners on.

I'm glad that Fukudome has turned his season around after a couple of very ugly months.  I agree that his defensive skills are a huge plus -- he'd be even better in RF.  As a leadoff man he's a good choice, so long as he doesn't actually try to steal bases.  I merely contested his "great"ness, based on his lack of power, his modest batting average, and his inability to hit lefties.  Pre -- for somebody who never called him great either -- sure did get upset at my "cherry picking" his statistics ... considering that I basically laid out his entire offensive line, including OBP and OPS, minus doubles and triples.  Oh well.

For a self-professed huge loser dork, you have a truly awful understanding of how to use statistics to evaluate a player. Stolen bases and runs, huzzah!

Bolded for aid with comprehension'd. 

[Saul Goodman]

I don't like this crazy new world where every Desipio thread inevitably devolves into this one.  We'll have to see how this plays out.

[Canadouche]

For starters, Kosuke has been playing baseball for well over 11 months. If you're gonna be a nitpicky asshole yourself...

Maybe he's spent the winter months playing in the Dominican, or back home in Japan, but the actual months he's spent playing in the bigs have been two Aprils, Mays, Junes, Julys, and Augusts, along with one September/October.  That's 11 months of big league baseball.  In those 11 months, he's batted below .200 in August of '08 (.193), in September of '08 (.178), and as recently as in June of '09 (.169).  Perhaps he's as streaky a hitter as Soriano.

You clearly missed my admittedly pedantic point:

As long as you also recognized yourself as also being a "nitpicky asshole."

Did you even read my fucking post?

I did, and you tried to convince me that Fukudome is consistent.  I would surmise based on his splits that he's very streaky.

...in May he batted 60 points lower than he did in April.  In June he batted 108 points lower than he did in May.  He batted 138 points higher in July than he did in June, and so far in August he's batting 32 points lower than he did in July.  Recognizing that any player will have slumps and hot streaks, those are still some very low dips and very high peaks.

I'm fine with that, as long as the numbers pan out in the end.

Batting average?

Really?

Okay. Accepting the importance of batting average for sake of argument... Are you saying that "batting 32 points lower than he did in July" means his .275 average this month qualifies as either a "slump" or a "very low dip"? Likewise his May average of .277?

I'm not disputing that his June sucked. What's your point?

That he's a good, inconsistent, defensively-admirable, less-than-great, walk-machine of a player?  And maybe that, with all due respect to Fangraphs (who tells us that Theriot is "worth" a similar figure to Fukudome), maybe the Cubs are paying him a little bit more than he's worth and almost certainly more than what he'd get on the free agent market (be it $14 million or $12.5)?  

[ChuckD]

I think we'd all agree that if Fukudome had 15-20 seasons just like this one he wouldn't be banging down the door of the Hall of Fame.

ORLY?

You know many .272 career hitters with less than 200 career homeruns, 3000 hits, and defense just shy of Gold Glove caliber running around Cooperstown right now?*

(*that weren't voted in by a Veterans Committee)

Aside: Fangraphs rocks and certainly points out how a player like Fooky might be underrated ... but has anybody ever noticed that, according to that site, Theriot is defensively a Top 10 shortstop (and 3rd best in the NL) and is overall the 6th most valuable in all of baseball?  Does that make him great too?

If he posted 20 more seasons at his current rate, he'd rank 20th all-time among Hall of Famers in terms of runs created (using the simplified OBP*SLG*PA formula) with 2091. That would place him right ahead of George Brett (2089) and a little behind Al Kaline (2093). But I guess the BBWAA shares your irrational infatuation with counting stats, so perhaps you're right.

Edit: Certainly, there are better ways of proving you wrong. Runs Created isn't without its faults. I guess I could go on, but the fact that you are analyzing player production with BA, HR, RBI and "Gold Glove caliber" as your metrics of choice indicate that any additional time would be a waste. I was nice and didn't count his home run tonight which would just prove you even more wrong. Even at 15 years of current production, he'd wind up with an RC of 1568. That would place him slightly above the average HOFer (1560). However, it should be noted that said average HOFer averages 18 seasons, so Fukudome's current production soundly outpaces that of the average inductee.

[Canadouche]

I think we'd all agree that if Fukudome had 15-20 seasons just like this one he wouldn't be banging down the door of the Hall of Fame.

ORLY?

You know many .272 career hitters with less than 200 career homeruns, 3000 hits, and defense just shy of Gold Glove caliber running around Cooperstown right now?*

(*that weren't voted in by a Veterans Committee)

Aside: Fangraphs rocks and certainly points out how a player like Fooky might be underrated ... but has anybody ever noticed that, according to that site, Theriot is defensively a Top 10 shortstop (and 3rd best in the NL) and is overall the 6th most valuable in all of baseball?  Does that make him great too?

If he posted 20 more seasons at his current rate, he'd rank 20th all-time among Hall of Famers in terms of runs created (using the simplified OBP*SLG*PA formula) with 2091. That would place him right ahead of George Brett (2089) and a little behind Al Kaline (2093). But I guess the BBWAA shares your irrational infatuation with counting stats, so perhaps you're right.

Edit: Certainly, there are better ways of proving you wrong. Runs Created isn't without its faults. I guess I could go on and waste more time.That said, I was nice and didn't count his home run tonight which would just prove you even more wrong. Even at 15 years of current production, he'd wind up with an RC of 1568. That would place him slightly above the average HOFer (1560). It should be noted that said average HOFer averages 18 seasons, so Fukudome's current production soundly outpaces that of the average inductee.

So you think that Fukudome is Hall of Fame caliber.  My question is this: is he the greatest player of all time, or only the greatest Cub?

I apologize for only "liking" Fukudome and thinking he was merely a "better than bad, but way, way less than great" player.  I understand now why he might be seen as being worth every penny of the $12.5 million the Cubs are paying him. 

You're probably right, though, about RC (or wRC) not really working as being the end-all, be-all way of measuring a hitter's success.  Looking at the list of players who would fall in line somewhere above or below what Fukudome's projected output would be, it's kind of hard to believe that even you, ChuckD, would think players like Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Harold Baines, Luis Gonzalez, Larry Walker, Rusty Staub, and a handful of others are Hall of Fame material.  Then again, on a somewhat unrelated note, considering that you don't really trust the "irrational BBWAA" to make the right choices, it doesn't exactly make sense to use the numbers of the "average HOFer" as a gauge for Fukudome's hypothetical comparative success. 

Or perhaps they should open the floodgates a little and be more receptive of non-traditionally successful players getting into the Hall.  I've always supported a "The More the Merrier" approach in that regard.

Anyway, did I mention that I actually like Fukudome?  Are you seriously arguing with me for not liking him enough?

[Lance Dicksons Arm]

I don't like this crazy new world where every Desipio thread inevitably devolves into this one.  We'll have to see how this plays out.

I blame Matt Murton for all of this.

[butthead]

Most of these posts are way too long. There's no way I am going to read all of this shit. I'm too tired for that. I think I got it though....Theriot and Bradley and Fukudome have been somewhere between okay and great, the Cubs have been mediocre, and I am ready for football.

[Ghost of Dave Rosello]

WGN news is teasing a story that the Cubs' sale is "imminent".

EDIT: The Trib has this on its website.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-fri-cubs-sale-aug21,0,1530428.story

[ChuckD]

So you think that Fukudome is Hall of Fame caliber.  My question is this: is he the greatest player of all time, or only the greatest Cub?

Greatest player of all time isn't highly likely. I'm just saying that, given the extremely improbable assumptions of the thought experiment that you proposed, Fukudome ranges from at minimum being a borderline HOFer in terms of RC to being among the elite. As of right now, he's probably not even top 100. But, since he's getting 15-20 seasons of production at his peak level, he should be in the HOF. Yes, I know. It's a retarded thought experiment. I didn't create it. Some other douche was responsible.

I apologize for only "liking" Fukudome and thinking he was merely a "better than bad, but way, way less than great" player.

You should be. He's "better than good, but probably not quite great."

I understand now why he might be seen as being worth every penny of the $12.5 million the Cubs are paying him.

Great. I'm glad that you understand that now. However, I'm still going to post the rest of this...

You're probably right, though, about RC (or wRC) not really working as being the end-all, be-all way of measuring a hitter's success.  Looking at the list of players who would fall in line somewhere above or below what Fukudome's projected output would be, it's kind of hard to believe that even you, ChuckD, would think players like Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Harold Baines, Luis Gonzalez, Larry Walker, Rusty Staub, and a handful of others are Hall of Fame material.

Again, these are the confines of your own hypothetical. Of the six players you listed, most were defensive liabilities who were stashed at positions on the right left side of the defensive spectrum to limit the consequences. All offer pretty poor comparisons since Fukudome would be playing 20 years of above average defense at a premium position. Gonzalez is the one real exception, although he's likely to receive around the same level of support as Dwight Evans (who should be in the HOF).

At 15 years, Fukudome's RC would be 1627. Of players who have RC greater than or equal to this, 56/64 have been inducted in to the HOF. Those eight unsuccessful include Mark McGwire, Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, and Pete Rose. Dawson and Raines will almost certainly get in. McGwire and Rose aren't really applicable due to other circumstances. Adjusting, that results in a 58/62 success rate, or about 93.5%. At 20 years of hypothetical production, he's a lock for induction unless he hypothetically gambles on baseball.

Then again, on a somewhat unrelated note, considering that you don't really trust the "irrational BBWAA" to make the right choices, it doesn't exactly make sense to use the numbers of the "average HOFer" as a gauge for Fukudome's hypothetical comparative success.

Do you ever read what you type? It doesn't make sense. You claimed Fukudome isn't worthy of the HOF assuming 15-20 years of present level production. Who do you want me to compare Fukudome to if not said HOFers?

Or perhaps they should open the floodgates a little and be more receptive of non-traditionally successful players getting into the Hall.  I've always supported a "The More the Merrier" approach in that regard.

Um, okay? I really couldn't care less who the HOF lets in. Let in Mickey Morandini for all I care.

Anyway, did I mention that I actually like Fukudome?

Yeah, but you also mentioned that you molest children and we all know you flip-flopped on that too. Flip-flopper.

Are you seriously arguing with me for not liking him enough?

No. I'm arguing that given 15-20 years of hypothetical production, Fukudome's a HOFer. Christ, are you ever dense.