The 2010 Cubs Free Agent and Roster Moves Thread: SAVEENG OUR KUBBEEZ!!11

[Eli]

I really had no idea why CFiHP was so passionately defending an inferior player until it dawned on me that Jason Bay used to play for Pittsburgh.  I get it now.

[CubFaninHydePark]

Quality of teams has to factor in here--when Bay was with the Pirates, they were so shitty that a replacement LF wasn't going to cost the Pirates games they were already losing.  When he was with the Red Sox, there was enough surrounding talent that Bay's contributions probably didn't influence their winning percentage that strongly.

That's not how it works.

From what I read, WAR calculated the # of wins the player would be expected to contribute above a generic/average replacement.  Maybe I misunderstood, but if that is the case, it'd make sense that a player's team would influence that stat.

As for UZR, it makes sense that an OF's rating would be affected by who plays the neighboring position(s).  It'll be interesting to see if a healthy Beltran affects Bay's rating.

[Eli]

From what I read, WAR calculated the # of wins the player would be expected to contribute above a generic/average replacement.  Maybe I misunderstood, but if that is the case, it'd make sense that a player's team would influence that stat.

Due to a busy schedule, I've outsourced all of my sabermetric explanations to Yeti, so he'll be following up with you shortly. 

[Yeti]

Holliday is two years younger though, and he might be better than Bay, but by "a lot?"  I don't see the wide margin in the numbers.  I'd say that Holliday is a marginal upgrade, if anything.

You would make a great GM.

For the Mets.

WAR for the last 3 years
Bay -      0.0 (not on vacation, just crappy)/2.9/3.5
Holliday - 8.0/6.3/5.7

Quality of teams has to factor in here--when Bay was with the Pirates, they were so shitty that a replacement LF wasn't going to cost the Pirates games they were already losing.  When he was with the Red Sox, there was enough surrounding talent that Bay's contributions probably didn't influence their winning percentage that strongly.

Holliday played for teams that were good enough that his contributions could matter.

And adjust for Coors inflation.

I think that the OPS splits--especially the away ones--are still the most relevant, as they measure individual performance, instead of linking value to the quality of the team for which the player played.

For a self-professed non-stat fag, you sure sound a lot like a stat fag, even if you might have no idea what you're talking about.

"Like my boy tells me: If it looks like a rat and smells like a rat, by golly, it is a rat."

He doesn't know what he's talking about. WAR does not depend upon the team's win totals.

Edit: Eli kind of beat me to it, but to elaborate, you convert from OBP and SLG to some form of an offensive "runs created" vaue and compare it against lg average. Same for defensive contribution. Sum them up to calculate runs above replacement (RAR). Divide by 10. 10 runs per win. The result is WAR.

I think somehow he wanted to say that his shitty team affected his OBP and SLG. Apparently the fact that Nyjer's just a dumb morgan affected the way Bay could hit the fuck out of the ball and get on base. CFiHP, seriously. You can't win this Holliday > Bay on many levels. He's a better hitter, fielder, teammate, cocksucker, and player. Just because they got similar dollar amounts (Bay around $16mil/yr and Holliday $17mil/yr) doesn't mean their equal. Holliday is probably worth that and Bay is overpaid. Good for him, but fuck stop pulling these "SABR" stats of yours out of your lady friend's vagoda.

If you want to look at OPS, look at OPS+ which adjusts for (GASP!) park factors (And the COORS INFLATION). I don't even feel like looking up the differences they have in that, or any other stats. The point remains that Holliday is still better than Bay.

As far as your article about Bay's UZR, it is possible, and it has happened before (Teixera) that UZR misses, but it's still a very good indicator of a player's defensive prowess. That article mentions that Bay was a top player in RF last year. Would we agree that Adam Dunn is a horrible outfielder? Well, take a look at this. Even the shitty Adam Dunn had a good RF year.

Oh yea... Sydney Crosby's a fucking diving nifkin.

To add a BBQ glaze on top of Yeti's roast:

Bay last 3 years: 121 OPS+
Holliday last 3 years: 143 OPS+

It's really not close.

Thanks. I just reread what I wrote. HeyZues, the typing errors.

[ChuckD]

Quality of teams has to factor in here--when Bay was with the Pirates, they were so shitty that a replacement LF wasn't going to cost the Pirates games they were already losing.  When he was with the Red Sox, there was enough surrounding talent that Bay's contributions probably didn't influence their winning percentage that strongly.

That's not how it works.

From what I read, WAR calculated the # of wins the player would be expected to contribute above a generic/average replacement.  Maybe I misunderstood, but if that is the case, it'd make sense that a player's team would influence that stat.

As for UZR, it makes sense that an OF's rating would be affected by who plays the neighboring position(s).  It'll be interesting to see if a healthy Beltran affects Bay's rating.

"No", to the first part. I explained that already.

And "no" to the second as well. Look up how UZR is calculated and you'll understand why: it's zero sum. If a CF gets to a disproportionate amount of balls that fall in one of the 78 zones (the wedges of the outfield for which responsibility is split between the LF and CF), then the LF is receiving credit for fewer balls fielded then what is normally expected. As such, this would cause a negative shift in UZR by way of the RngR component. The CF would need to be fielding fewer, not more, balls in the 78 zones for a LF to show improvement.

Edit: So, technically, yes to what you're asserting: outfielders do affect the UZR of neighboring outfielders, but in the complete opposite manner to which you are arguing.

Edit2: "78 zones" may be a misnomer. I think that's the terminology used by STATS, Inc. I think UZR uses some other data set which may or may not divide the field in the same fashion. But, the general concept stands no matter how responsibility is allocated.

[Yeti]

From what I read, WAR calculated the # of wins the player would be expected to contribute above a generic/average replacement.  Maybe I misunderstood, but if that is the case, it'd make sense that a player's team would influence that stat.

Due to a busy schedule, I've outsourced all of my sabermetric explanations to Yeti, so he'll be following up with you shortly. 

I'm tired and lazy. CFiHP, if you haven't done so, go here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/#winvalues. Let me know if you have questions. I might help. Part 4 has replacement player information that you may find interesting.

[Powdered Toast Man]

This statqueer tomfoolery confuses me, but I have a blind, ignorant faith in it--I know it all makes sense, I just don't care enough to make sense of it.

[MAD]

This statqueer tomfoolery confuses me, but I have a blind, ignorant faith in it--I know it all makes sense, I just don't care enough to make sense of it.

THI

[flannj]

This statqueer tomfoolery confuses me, but I have a blind, ignorant faith in it--I know it all makes sense, I just don't care enough to make sense of it.

THI

Beat me to it Huey.

[SKO]

This statqueer tomfoolery confuses me, but I have a blind, ignorant faith in it--I know it all makes sense, I just don't care enough to make sense of it.

THI

Beat me to it Huey.

Hell, I still don't get why I'm supposed to JO everytime some morgan gets a walk instead of a hit. I mean HELLO ITS CALLED HITTING. But whatev, the groupthink says go with it.

[Richard Chuggar]

This statqueer tomfoolery confuses me, but I have a blind, ignorant faith in it--I know it all makes sense, I just don't care enough to make sense of it.

THI

Beat me to it Huey.

Hell, I still don't get why I'm supposed to JO everytime some morgan gets a walk instead of a hit. I mean HELLO ITS CALLED HITTING. But whatev, the groupthink says go with it.

You show me a statfaggot, and I'll show you a faggot.

[R-V]

Quality of teams has to factor in here--when Bay was with the Pirates, they were so shitty that a replacement LF wasn't going to cost the Pirates games they were already losing.  When he was with the Red Sox, there was enough surrounding talent that Bay's contributions probably didn't influence their winning percentage that strongly.

That's not how it works.

From what I read, WAR calculated the # of wins the player would be expected to contribute above a generic/average replacement.  Maybe I misunderstood, but if that is the case, it'd make sense that a player's team would influence that stat.

As for UZR, it makes sense that an OF's rating would be affected by who plays the neighboring position(s).  It'll be interesting to see if a healthy Beltran affects Bay's rating.

So what's it like going through life never being wrong about anything?

[Internet Apex]

This is the worst thread on the internet.

[Jon]

This is the worst thread on the internet.

I won't hear it! There's a thread in Eastbourne...

[CubFaninHydePark]

Quality of teams has to factor in here--when Bay was with the Pirates, they were so shitty that a replacement LF wasn't going to cost the Pirates games they were already losing.  When he was with the Red Sox, there was enough surrounding talent that Bay's contributions probably didn't influence their winning percentage that strongly.

That's not how it works.

From what I read, WAR calculated the # of wins the player would be expected to contribute above a generic/average replacement.  Maybe I misunderstood, but if that is the case, it'd make sense that a player's team would influence that stat.

As for UZR, it makes sense that an OF's rating would be affected by who plays the neighboring position(s).  It'll be interesting to see if a healthy Beltran affects Bay's rating.

So what's it like going through life never being wrong about anything?

I'm not saying I'm right--I didn't understand the full definition of the stats and why a player's team's quality didn't affect the WAR value of a player and was asking for clarity.

I'm just trying to learn, and focused/pointed questions are usually the best way to get the information you're lacking.