Fuck its silent in here.......

[R-V]

but in order to fool the Congressional Budget Office

I think this was my favorite part.  It's so easy to just play tricks on the CBO.

Here's what I don't get: if the deficit reduction in the first 10 years is a TRICK, what explains the $1.2 trillion deficit reduction in the second decade (a 10-year period where both new revenues and new expenses are fully implemented).

[Chuck to Chuck]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

[Dr. Nguyen Van Falk]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

[morpheus]

but in order to fool the Congressional Budget Office

I think this was my favorite part.  It's so easy to just play tricks on the CBO.

Here's what I don't get: if the deficit reduction in the first 10 years is a TRICK, what explains the $1.2 trillion deficit reduction in the second decade (a 10-year period where both new revenues and new expenses are fully implemented).

The CBO basically assumes whatever the bill says it will do, it will do.  So, if they say that Medicare reimbursements for doctors will be cut by 50% in year 18 (numbers I just made up so please don't hold me to it), then that's how they score it.  The problem is, projections more than a year out are bad enough; projections out 10-20 years are almost worthless, which is why the CBO says

Although CBO does not generally provide cost estimates beyond the 10-year budget projection period, certain Congressional rules require some information about the budgetary impact of legislation in subsequent decades, and many Members have requested CBO's analyses of the long-term budgetary impact of broad changes in the nation's health care and health insurance systems.

Now, as for TRICKS: read this: http://sayanythingblog.com/images/Trust_Fund_Accounting.pdf (note the CBO is the author).  Last line:

To describe the full amount of HI trust fund savings as both improving the government's ability to pay future Medicare benefits and financing new spending outside of Medicare would essentially double-count a large share of those savings and thus overstate the improvement in the government's fiscal position.

That's one of the many TRICKS in there.  Along with assuming the "doc fix" stops getting passed every year and doctors just accept payment reductions of 20% as another example.

[thehawk]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

[R-V]

The CBO basically assumes whatever the bill says it will do, it will do.

According to this guy, the CBO actually takes a conservative view of cost-savings in the second decade:

Yes, the CBO itself notes that projections for the second decade of implementation--that is, 2020 through 2029--have an unusually high margin of error. But the CBO's final judgment takes that uncertainty into account.

Remember, when the CBO makes a projection for how much a program will cost over time, it isn't just spitting out a single number. It's giving a range of numbers. It's typically the midpoint that you hear about, but there's always a chance that the number will be higher or lower, by a certain interval. And, in order to play it safe, CBO decided it would judge health care reform based on the worst possible estimate within that interval.

So suppose, just to use some hypothetical numbers, the CBO ran the numbers and determined that the Democrats' bill would probably save $1 trillion over ten years, but that the range of possible estimates was between saving $2.25 trillion and losing $250 billion. I'd say that's pretty good odds: It's far more likely you'll save money and the possible savings are far bigger than the possible increase in the deficit.

CBO would have disagreed. If there's a statistically significant chance that the bill would cost $250 billion, they would have said they can't declare that the bill won't inflate the deficit. The only way to get CBO approval would have been to modify the bill, so that the CBO determined it was likely to save $1.25 trillion but determined even the worst-case, most pessimistic scenario wouldn't drive up the deficit.

FWIW, I can't find any language in here that verifies the TNR claim of conservative budgeting of cost savings.

These seem to be pretty even-handed takes on the legitimacy of the CBO scores:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-03-19/health-cares-fuzzy-math/

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-03-18/do-these-numbers-add-up/

[Yeti]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

Some guy in DC suffered from PTSD and got $1000 on 10/16/08. Some guy in O'Fallon IL lost a leg to an IED, suffers from TBI (no clue without googling) and has burns to face and hands and got $1000 as well

[Bort]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

Some guy in DC suffered from PTSD and got $1000 on 10/16/08. Some guy in O'Fallon IL lost a leg to an IED, suffers from TBI (no clue without googling) and has burns to face and hands and got $1000 as well

1000 bucks. Whoop de shit. That pays for an MRI.

Shit, I've gotten that much for drawing a picture of a dragon in a high school art contest.

[Yeti]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

Some guy in DC suffered from PTSD and got $1000 on 10/16/08. Some guy in O'Fallon IL lost a leg to an IED, suffers from TBI (no clue without googling) and has burns to face and hands and got $1000 as well

1000 bucks. Whoop de shit. That pays for an MRI.

Shit, I've gotten that much for drawing a picture of a dragon in a high school art contest.

I was agreeing...

[Bort]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

Some guy in DC suffered from PTSD and got $1000 on 10/16/08. Some guy in O'Fallon IL lost a leg to an IED, suffers from TBI (no clue without googling) and has burns to face and hands and got $1000 as well

1000 bucks. Whoop de shit. That pays for an MRI.

Shit, I've gotten that much for drawing a picture of a dragon in a high school art contest.

I was agreeing...

So was I...

[Yeti]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

Some guy in DC suffered from PTSD and got $1000 on 10/16/08. Some guy in O'Fallon IL lost a leg to an IED, suffers from TBI (no clue without googling) and has burns to face and hands and got $1000 as well

1000 bucks. Whoop de shit. That pays for an MRI.

Shit, I've gotten that much for drawing a picture of a dragon in a high school art contest.

I was agreeing...

So was I...

Good.

[Bort]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

Some guy in DC suffered from PTSD and got $1000 on 10/16/08. Some guy in O'Fallon IL lost a leg to an IED, suffers from TBI (no clue without googling) and has burns to face and hands and got $1000 as well

1000 bucks. Whoop de shit. That pays for an MRI.

Shit, I've gotten that much for drawing a picture of a dragon in a high school art contest.

I was agreeing...

So was I...

Good.

Good.

[Dr. Nguyen Van Falk]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

Some guy in DC suffered from PTSD and got $1000 on 10/16/08. Some guy in O'Fallon IL lost a leg to an IED, suffers from TBI (no clue without googling) and has burns to face and hands and got $1000 as well

1000 bucks. Whoop de shit. That pays for an MRI.

Shit, I've gotten that much for drawing a picture of a dragon in a high school art contest.

If this dragon was fucking a car, you deserved much, much more.

[morpheus]

The CBO basically assumes whatever the bill says it will do, it will do.

According to this guy, the CBO actually takes a conservative view of cost-savings in the second decade:

Yes, the CBO itself notes that projections for the second decade of implementation--that is, 2020 through 2029--have an unusually high margin of error. But the CBO's final judgment takes that uncertainty into account.

Remember, when the CBO makes a projection for how much a program will cost over time, it isn't just spitting out a single number. It's giving a range of numbers. It's typically the midpoint that you hear about, but there's always a chance that the number will be higher or lower, by a certain interval. And, in order to play it safe, CBO decided it would judge health care reform based on the worst possible estimate within that interval.

So suppose, just to use some hypothetical numbers, the CBO ran the numbers and determined that the Democrats' bill would probably save $1 trillion over ten years, but that the range of possible estimates was between saving $2.25 trillion and losing $250 billion. I'd say that's pretty good odds: It's far more likely you'll save money and the possible savings are far bigger than the possible increase in the deficit.

CBO would have disagreed. If there's a statistically significant chance that the bill would cost $250 billion, they would have said they can't declare that the bill won't inflate the deficit. The only way to get CBO approval would have been to modify the bill, so that the CBO determined it was likely to save $1.25 trillion but determined even the worst-case, most pessimistic scenario wouldn't drive up the deficit.

FWIW, I can't find any language in here that verifies the TNR claim of conservative budgeting of cost savings.

These seem to be pretty even-handed takes on the legitimacy of the CBO scores:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-03-19/health-cares-fuzzy-math/

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-03-18/do-these-numbers-add-up/

Since I mentioned the doc fix... I just saw this now.  http://www.politico.com/livepulse/0310/EXCLUSIVE__Democrats_plan_doc_fix_after_reform.html?showall

[Yeti]

Maybe because the money is being diverted to Sean Hannity?

For the last several years, Sean Hannity and the Freedom Alliance "charity" have conducted "Freedom Concerts" across America. They've told you that they are raising money to pay for the college tuition of the children of fallen soldiers and to pay severely wounded war vets.  And on Friday Night, Hannity will be honored with an award for this "Outstanding Community Service by a Radio Talk Show Host" at Talkers Magazine's  convention.

But it's all a huge scam.

In fact, less than 20%–and in two recent years, less than 7% and 4%, respectively–of the money raised by Freedom Alliance went to these causes, while millions of dollars went to expenses, including consultants and apparently to ferry the Hannity posse of family and friends in high style. And, despite Hannity's statements to the contrary on his nationally syndicated radio show, few of the children of fallen soldiers got more than $1,000-$2,000, with apparently none getting more than $6,000, while Freedom Alliance appears to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for private planes.  Moreover, despite written assurances to donors that all money raised would go directly to scholarships for kids of the fallen heroes and not to expenses, has begun charging expenses of nearly $500,000 to give out just over $800,000 in scholarships.

Which preconception should take precedence here: My sense that Sean Hannity is a slimy, opportunistic fucknut with a history of credibility issues, or my conviction that Debbie Schlussel is a clueless, cut-rate Michelle Malkin impersonator with a history of credibility issues?

(Or do I just sit back and enjoy the blood-letting either way?)

You could just read their tax form (non profits are required to file what is known as a form 990, and its public record)

http://www.freedomalliance.org/images/pdf_and_largepics/2008_990.pdf

I looked at the 2007 form.  In my slimy opportunistic view, if the government took as much as a percentage of every dollar given as the Freedom Alliance uses, I think I would know what would be leading off every Fox News show for the next month.

EDITED to add :  Did look at the 2008 form, it lists grants for the scholarships as grants to colleges, and the highest grant given to any school was $6,000.  My guess that the maximum grant to any one recipient was some fraction of that.

Some guy in DC suffered from PTSD and got $1000 on 10/16/08. Some guy in O'Fallon IL lost a leg to an IED, suffers from TBI (no clue without googling) and has burns to face and hands and got $1000 as well

1000 bucks. Whoop de shit. That pays for an MRI.

Shit, I've gotten that much for drawing a picture of a dragon in a high school art contest.

If this dragon was fucking a car, you deserved much, much more.

FACE