Spring Has Sprung 2010

[Eli]

I think the important thing to take away from all of this is that you don't have any fucking idea how good or bad Colvin's gonna be.

I think Yeti's still getting his statfag sea legs, which is leading to some clumsy analysis, but why is it impossible to project if Colvin is going to be good based on 1,700 minor league at bats?

The big knock on Colvin when he came out of college was that he didn't have any plate discipline.  While he's gotten a little better as he's progressed, there's a still a long way to go.  Given his background and performance, one can reasonably guess that Colvin is going to struggle with the strike zone in the majors.  Sure, it's still possible that Colvin could turn into Bobby Abreu, but it doesn't seem likely.

I take all of this back if you were just wanting to insult Yeti specifically, rather than defend Colvin.

[SKO]

the point is that Colvin has a BB% of somewhere close to 5% while his K% is somewhere near 15-18%.

Yeah, taking his total minor league average for walks is some kind of proof that he will totally suck.

He'll probably not be that good.  But maybe the added mass will help a lot.  Either way, it's a hell
of a lot more complicated than walk and k rates.

He has over 1000 ABs to look at. I'm not really sure how building muscle will really affect that. If a guy can't take walks in the minors, I'm going to go out on a very thin limb and say he probably won't take walks in the majors. I mean, I might be wrong, but taking walks doesn't seem to be a product of strength or swing style. It's a guy's discipline and eye. I doubt that's going to change. Like I said, he may be a decent player, but he can't hit .275 and be decent because he'll have like a .285 OBP and need to have a slugging of .515 just to have an .800 OPS, which would put him just a little bit above average. I'd like to see him materialize into a decent player, but it probably won't happen. His walk rates (more so than his K rates) show that he has quite the challenge in front of him to be a good player.

Thanks for explaining that you need to like, walk and stuff, to have a good OBP. The guy had a .332 OBP last year. That's below average, but it's not abysmal or Pattersonian, and it's an improvement from the year before. He also cut down on strikeouts from 08 to 09 and the added bulk might make him more of a power threat and might lead to teams being more afraid to challenge him. I don't know if he'll be any fucking good or not, and Jim Hendry's obsession with toolsy outfielders with little plate discipline drives me as crazy as it does you, but you're being an overly simplistic moran.

k

Mkay.

[PenFoe]

I think the important thing to take away from all of this is that you don't have any fucking idea how good or bad Colvin's gonna be.

I think Yeti's still getting his statfag sea legs, which is leading to some clumsy analysis, but why is it impossible to project if Colvin is going to be good based on 1,700 minor league at bats?

The big knock on Colvin when he came out of college was that he didn't have any plate discipline.  While he's gotten a little better as he's progressed, there's a still a long way to go.  Given his background and performance, one can reasonably guess that Colvin is going to struggle with the strike zone in the majors.  Sure, it's still possible that Colvin could turn into Bobby Abreu, but it doesn't seem likely.

I take all of this back if you were just wanting to insult Yeti specifically, rather than defend Colvin.

Yeah, I didn't say it was impossible to project Colvin's future, just that Yeti couldn't do it.

[Yeti]

I think the important thing to take away from all of this is that you don't have any fucking idea how good or bad Colvin's gonna be.

I think Yeti's still getting his statfag sea legs, which is leading to some clumsy analysis, but why is it impossible to project if Colvin is going to be good based on 1,700 minor league at bats?

The big knock on Colvin when he came out of college was that he didn't have any plate discipline.  While he's gotten a little better as he's progressed, there's a still a long way to go.  Given his background and performance, one can reasonably guess that Colvin is going to struggle with the strike zone in the majors.  Sure, it's still possible that Colvin could turn into Bobby Abreu, but it doesn't seem likely.

I take all of this back if you were just wanting to insult Yeti specifically, rather than defend Colvin.

Well, Eli can say it better than I can. But yea, my point was basically this above. His walk rate, while only one part of his game, will be one of the biggest things that will hinder him.. However, the Cubs do have Rudy Jaramillo, BEST FREE AGENT SIGNING OF THE OFFSEASON, so this will be moot when he puts up a .310/.395/.479 line, and we'll all be douches.

Well, maybe just me.. And I don't think the "will be" applies in that case.

[SKO]

I think the important thing to take away from all of this is that you don't have any fucking idea how good or bad Colvin's gonna be.

I think Yeti's still getting his statfag sea legs, which is leading to some clumsy analysis, but why is it impossible to project if Colvin is going to be good based on 1,700 minor league at bats?

The big knock on Colvin when he came out of college was that he didn't have any plate discipline.  While he's gotten a little better as he's progressed, there's a still a long way to go.  Given his background and performance, one can reasonably guess that Colvin is going to struggle with the strike zone in the majors.  Sure, it's still possible that Colvin could turn into Bobby Abreu, but it doesn't seem likely.

I take all of this back if you were just wanting to insult Yeti specifically, rather than defend Colvin.

I certainly don't think Tyler Colvin's going to be a perennial all-star, but I think he could at least be a starting quality corner outfielder. I think it's fair, if Colvin has a .332 OBP in the minors, to assume he'll struggle with fairly pedestrian OBPs in the minors. I just took offense to Yeti's claim that he probably won't be "decent" because of his minor league numbers, even though he posted an .812 OPS last year With his shitty OBP, an OPS that Yeti would claim to be above average. Are you familiar with the old robot saying "DOES NOT COMPUTE" ?

[Chuck to Chuck]

Thanks for explaining that you need to like, walk and stuff, to have a good OBP. The guy had a .332 OBP last year. That's below average, but it's not abysmal or Pattersonian

Anyone want to guess Korey's AA OBP? .338

Colvin's never had an OBP that high at any level.

Colvin vs. Korey

I'm not saying Colvin (Kolvin?) will be good or bad.  I'm just saying you might want a better comparative.

[SKO]

Thanks for explaining that you need to like, walk and stuff, to have a good OBP. The guy had a .332 OBP last year. That's below average, but it's not abysmal or Pattersonian

Anyone want to guess Korey's AA OBP? .338

Colvin's never had an OBP that high at any level.

Colvin vs. Korey

I'm not saying Colvin (Kolvin?) will be good or bad.  I'm just saying you might want a better comparative.

I was thinking more of his .290 OBP in the majors, but fair enough. At least Colvin's OBP has improved during his time in the minors. Patterson's decreased every year that he was in the minors, from .358 to .338 to .308 (not counting his return trips to AAA in 2005, 2008, and 2009.

[Eli]

I certainly don't think Tyler Colvin's going to be a perennial all-star, but I think he could at least be a starting quality corner outfielder.

Depends on his defense, I suppose.  I don't know anything about it, to be honest.

As we've tediously discussed already, his OBP will probably never be great, so he's going to have to provide lots of slugging in order to be valuable.  Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get consistent .285/.330/.490 lines from him.  He'll be like a mini-Soriano!  Yay?

[PenFoe]

I certainly don't think Tyler Colvin's going to be a perennial all-star, but I think he could at least be a starting quality corner outfielder.

Depends on his defense, I suppose.  I don't know anything about it, to be honest.

As we've tediously discussed already, his OBP will probably never be great, so he's going to have to provide lots of slugging in order to be valuable.  Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get consistent .285/.330/.490 lines from him.  He'll be like a mini-Soriano!  Yay?

Nice choice, Jim.

[SKO]

I certainly don't think Tyler Colvin's going to be a perennial all-star, but I think he could at least be a starting quality corner outfielder.

Depends on his defense, I suppose.  I don't know anything about it, to be honest.

As we've tediously discussed already, his OBP will probably never be great, so he's going to have to provide lots of slugging in order to be valuable.  Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get consistent .285/.330/.490 lines from him.  He'll be like a mini-Soriano!  Yay?

That's not a bad line for a corner outfielder if he's making the league minimum. It's not that great for 16 million a year. I just think Colvin might turn out to be a cheap and passable option to play the corner outfield for a few years.

[Armchair_QB]

I certainly don't think Tyler Colvin's going to be a perennial all-star, but I think he could at least be a starting quality corner outfielder.

Depends on his defense, I suppose.  I don't know anything about it, to be honest.

As we've tediously discussed already, his OBP will probably never be great, so he's going to have to provide lots of slugging in order to be valuable.  Maybe if we're lucky, we'll get consistent .285/.330/.490 lines from him.  He'll be like a mini-Soriano!  Yay?

I'm thinking it's too early to know what kind of player he's going to be but I'm looking forward to finding out.

On a completely unrelated note, did anybody see Phil Rogers' column on why the Cubs should move their spring training camp to Florida? I think Phil is off his meds again.

[R-V]

Thanks for explaining that you need to like, walk and stuff, to have a good OBP. The guy had a .332 OBP last year. That's below average, but it's not abysmal or Pattersonian

Anyone want to guess Korey's AA OBP? .338

Colvin's never had an OBP that high at any level.

Colvin vs. Korey

I'm not saying Colvin (Kolvin?) will be good or bad.  I'm just saying you might want a better comparative.

I was thinking more of his .290 OBP in the majors, but fair enough. At least Colvin's OBP has improved during his time in the minors. Patterson's decreased every year that he was in the minors, from .358 to .338 to .308 (not counting his return trips to AAA in 2005, 2008, and 2009.

If Colvin's overall minor league stats are an indicator of his future, we're all boned.

If he "figured things out" last year and his AA line is the indicator (.859 OPS and 14 HRs in half a season), it's bonertime.

[SKO]

Thanks for explaining that you need to like, walk and stuff, to have a good OBP. The guy had a .332 OBP last year. That's below average, but it's not abysmal or Pattersonian

Anyone want to guess Korey's AA OBP? .338

Colvin's never had an OBP that high at any level.

Colvin vs. Korey

I'm not saying Colvin (Kolvin?) will be good or bad.  I'm just saying you might want a better comparative.

I was thinking more of his .290 OBP in the majors, but fair enough. At least Colvin's OBP has improved during his time in the minors. Patterson's decreased every year that he was in the minors, from .358 to .338 to .308 (not counting his return trips to AAA in 2005, 2008, and 2009.

If Colvin's overall minor league stats are an indicator of his future, we're all boned.

If he "figured things out" last year and his AA line is the indicator (.859 OPS and 14 HRs in half a season), it's bonertime.

Yeah, but if his 1.178 OPS from Spring Training is any indication, he'll be the greatest player in history. Tell me why that's unreasonable.

[Chuck to Chuck]

Yeah, but if his 1.178 OPS from Spring Training is any indication, he'll be the greatest player in history. Tell me why that's unreasonable.

Why Spring Training Results Mean Nothing, Part 12,783

[Andy]

I hope Colvin turns out to be good, and that the steroid regimen he was on this offseason turns him into Barry Bonds.  I just think he'd have been better served to go to Des Moines for a little bit at the beginning of the season to see if his torrid spring was for realsies.  He's going to end up there anyway, so I hope he banks his meal money while he's on the big league club.