The Jeff Samardzija Defenestration Thread

[Slaky]

Given the relatively low mileage on Samardzija's arm and his health to-date, should that be factored into his current value (whether it's for an extension or trade)? With basically every pitcher in the world getting hurt, there's got to be extra value in guys who project as healthier. I don't really know if it's possible to project health on pitchers, but I'm sure everyone is trying right now.

Then again, maybe he projects as less healthy because he throws so hard.

Mileage or not, I think anyone over 25 that hasn't had TJ yet feels a little safer.

Lock him up!

I can't even figure out what pitching prospect I'd feel comfortable trading him for. Archie Bradley is the highest-ranked guy, but he's scuffling along in AAA with decreased velocity (never a good sign). Others who could make sense in a deal are either too far away (Lucas Giolito, Washington) or already have an injury history (Aaron Sanchez, Toronto).

Snork for Carlos Gonzalez & Jon Gray. He's the ace the Rockies need to win the NL West.

Bleacher Nation has an article today about that...except not the CarGo part. Just Samardzija for Gray. And it was an article on an article written by some guy who writes in Denver.

Link'd:
Bleacher Nation: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/14/lukewarm-stove-denver-columnist-pushing-rockies-to-pursue-jeff-samardzija/

Denver Post: http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_25757152/kiszla-rockies-should-trade-top-prospect-jon-gray

I don't know this Mark Kiszla from Adam, but the fact that he gets his paychecks signed by the same people as Adrian Dater and Woody Paige suggests that I take this with a grain of salt.

I know Mark Kiszla and he's dumber than Adrian Dater by miles.

[BH]

Given the relatively low mileage on Samardzija's arm and his health to-date, should that be factored into his current value (whether it's for an extension or trade)? With basically every pitcher in the world getting hurt, there's got to be extra value in guys who project as healthier. I don't really know if it's possible to project health on pitchers, but I'm sure everyone is trying right now.

Then again, maybe he projects as less healthy because he throws so hard.

Mileage or not, I think anyone over 25 that hasn't had TJ yet feels a little safer.

Lock him up!

I can't even figure out what pitching prospect I'd feel comfortable trading him for. Archie Bradley is the highest-ranked guy, but he's scuffling along in AAA with decreased velocity (never a good sign). Others who could make sense in a deal are either too far away (Lucas Giolito, Washington) or already have an injury history (Aaron Sanchez, Toronto).

Snork for Carlos Gonzalez & Jon Gray. He's the ace the Rockies need to win the NL West.

Bleacher Nation has an article today about that...except not the CarGo part. Just Samardzija for Gray. And it was an article on an article written by some guy who writes in Denver.

Link'd:
Bleacher Nation: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/14/lukewarm-stove-denver-columnist-pushing-rockies-to-pursue-jeff-samardzija/

Denver Post: http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_25757152/kiszla-rockies-should-trade-top-prospect-jon-gray

I don't know this Mark Kiszla from Adam, but the fact that he gets his paychecks signed by the same people as Adrian Dater and Woody Paige suggests that I take this with a grain of salt.

The cubs would take the shark for gray trade without question. Which is why this won't happen.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Given the relatively low mileage on Samardzija's arm and his health to-date, should that be factored into his current value (whether it's for an extension or trade)? With basically every pitcher in the world getting hurt, there's got to be extra value in guys who project as healthier. I don't really know if it's possible to project health on pitchers, but I'm sure everyone is trying right now.

Then again, maybe he projects as less healthy because he throws so hard.

Mileage or not, I think anyone over 25 that hasn't had TJ yet feels a little safer.

Lock him up!

I can't even figure out what pitching prospect I'd feel comfortable trading him for. Archie Bradley is the highest-ranked guy, but he's scuffling along in AAA with decreased velocity (never a good sign). Others who could make sense in a deal are either too far away (Lucas Giolito, Washington) or already have an injury history (Aaron Sanchez, Toronto).

Snork for Carlos Gonzalez & Jon Gray. He's the ace the Rockies need to win the NL West.

Bleacher Nation has an article today about that...except not the CarGo part. Just Samardzija for Gray. And it was an article on an article written by some guy who writes in Denver.

Link'd:
Bleacher Nation: http://www.bleachernation.com/2014/05/14/lukewarm-stove-denver-columnist-pushing-rockies-to-pursue-jeff-samardzija/

Denver Post: http://www.denverpost.com/kiszla/ci_25757152/kiszla-rockies-should-trade-top-prospect-jon-gray

I don't know this Mark Kiszla from Adam, but the fact that he gets his paychecks signed by the same people as Adrian Dater and Woody Paige suggests that I take this with a grain of salt.

The cubs would take the shark for gray trade without question. Which is why this won't happen.

Some of the front office guys commenting on that Bleacher Nation thread would need to see Colorado sweeten the deal a bit.

I wouldn't be surprised if they tell the Rockies they want BOTH Gray and Butler. Then they sit back and wait to see what develops at the deadline.

If their asking price was Stroman and Sanchez from Tor, and Heyward or Upton from Atl, then I would hope that they are asking for Gray and more.

Agree 100%.
I don't think the Cubs would have any interest in a Gray for Shark straight swap.
I think it would have to be Gray++ if Shark keeps pitching as well as he had this year.

Jonathan Gray? Yes please. I'll take him and 2 lower level high ceiling pitching prospect for Samardzija

[Saul Goodman]

2) Before a team can win the World Series, it must think like a champion. A champion doesn't wait until next year, when the prospects in the minors and everybody who buys a ticket will be a year older.

Sounds familiar ... #epstinkisterrible

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Incidentally, a comment in that thread left me struggling to recall what "TINSTAAPP" stands for ("there is no such thing as a pitching prospect"), which led me to turn to Google, which in turn led me to this 2012 Jonah Keri piece looking at the recent history of failed pitching prospects through the lens of a post-hype Edwin Jackson's adventures in free agency.

Maybe the best way to re-cast TINSTAAPP is this: There's no such thing as a pitching prospect ... until he's no longer a prospect. Teams haven't been quite as willing to give out huge, early-career contracts to pitchers the way they have to elite young hitters like Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, and Dustin Pedroia. But once an uber-prospect like Verlander, Weaver, or Felix Hernandez proves he's matured from prospect to established star, his employer will jump to keep him off the market. That's why good but unspectacular starters like C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle were the best pitching gets of this offseason, and why teams are already drooling over the chance that Cole Hamels and Matt Cain could be fair game in nine months' time. It's why the Yankees are reluctant to part with Phil Hughes, even with seven capable starting pitchers on the roster. By the time a pitcher is good enough and established enough to be trusted, your chances of landing him are nearly zero.

Maybe the next generation of pitching prospects will be different. MLB.com rates Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller, and Trevor Bauer among the top-10 prospects in baseball. Yet the Rays have held on to Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann, the pitching-rich Braves are clinging to Jair Jurrjens, the pitching-rich Cardinals are pursuing Roy Oswalt, and the Diamondbacks dealt for Trevor Cahill and re-signed Joe Saunders. Too many teams have seen too many pitching stories go bad to depend on kids, no matter how promising they might look at the start.

...

... Over the past three seasons, Jackson has been worth more than 11 Wins Above Replacement (per FanGraphs). Only 19 other pitchers have delivered more value to their teams during that span. Yet Jackson continued to get traded, for reasons ranging from his perceived value exceeding his actual value (early on), to salary and service-time considerations (as he approached free agency). The man whom Baseball America ranked six spots above Prince Fielder eight years ago now stands to make $200 million less as a first-time free agent. That would be a shame. Even among top prospects, Jackson's WAR of 14.0 through his first six full seasons beats more than half³ of the pitchers ranked as Baseball America top-10s in the decade before Jackson's '04 entry.

Maybe the five-year megadeal he and his agent Scott Boras hoped to get was always a pipe dream. But if a team does land him on a one-year contract, that would qualify as a major bargain. Edwin Jackson might never become the superstar who could make a habit out of beating baseball's Randy Johnsons. Given the horrors that have plagued pitching prospects for as long as there have been pitching prospects, he's still a success story.


3. Rick Ankiel! Ryan Anderson! Paul Wilson! You can really taste the heartbreak, and that's before you get to relatively successful burnouts like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

[PenFoe]

Incidentally, a comment in that thread left me struggling to recall what "TINSTAAPP" stands for ("there is no such thing as a pitching prospect"), which led me to turn to Google, which in turn led me to this 2012 Jonah Keri piece looking at the recent history of failed pitching prospects through the lens of a post-hype Edwin Jackson's adventures in free agency.

Maybe the best way to re-cast TINSTAAPP is this: There's no such thing as a pitching prospect ... until he's no longer a prospect. Teams haven't been quite as willing to give out huge, early-career contracts to pitchers the way they have to elite young hitters like Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, and Dustin Pedroia. But once an uber-prospect like Verlander, Weaver, or Felix Hernandez proves he's matured from prospect to established star, his employer will jump to keep him off the market. That's why good but unspectacular starters like C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle were the best pitching gets of this offseason, and why teams are already drooling over the chance that Cole Hamels and Matt Cain could be fair game in nine months' time. It's why the Yankees are reluctant to part with Phil Hughes, even with seven capable starting pitchers on the roster. By the time a pitcher is good enough and established enough to be trusted, your chances of landing him are nearly zero.

Maybe the next generation of pitching prospects will be different. MLB.com rates Matt Moore, Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller, and Trevor Bauer among the top-10 prospects in baseball. Yet the Rays have held on to Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann, the pitching-rich Braves are clinging to Jair Jurrjens, the pitching-rich Cardinals are pursuing Roy Oswalt, and the Diamondbacks dealt for Trevor Cahill and re-signed Joe Saunders. Too many teams have seen too many pitching stories go bad to depend on kids, no matter how promising they might look at the start.

...

... Over the past three seasons, Jackson has been worth more than 11 Wins Above Replacement (per FanGraphs). Only 19 other pitchers have delivered more value to their teams during that span. Yet Jackson continued to get traded, for reasons ranging from his perceived value exceeding his actual value (early on), to salary and service-time considerations (as he approached free agency). The man whom Baseball America ranked six spots above Prince Fielder eight years ago now stands to make $200 million less as a first-time free agent. That would be a shame. Even among top prospects, Jackson's WAR of 14.0 through his first six full seasons beats more than half³ of the pitchers ranked as Baseball America top-10s in the decade before Jackson's '04 entry.

Maybe the five-year megadeal he and his agent Scott Boras hoped to get was always a pipe dream. But if a team does land him on a one-year contract, that would qualify as a major bargain. Edwin Jackson might never become the superstar who could make a habit out of beating baseball's Randy Johnsons. Given the horrors that have plagued pitching prospects for as long as there have been pitching prospects, he's still a success story.


3. Rick Ankiel! Ryan Anderson! Paul Wilson! You can really taste the heartbreak, and that's before you get to relatively successful burnouts like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

All this did was remind me that I hate Edwin Jackson.

[Saul Goodman]

A Rondon pants-shitting and a crappy Barney throw in the 9th deny Jeff another precious W.

[InternetApex]

*skypoint*

[CBStew]

*skypoint*

When Lake got a single in extra innings with no outs, did Renteria have Rizzo sacrificing?

[Yeti]

*skypoint*

Indeed. After Rondon blew it, I was hoping the Cubs would give him the W. Fuckers.

[Eli]

*skypoint*

Indeed. After Rondon blew it, I was hoping the Cubs would give him the W. Fuckers.

So, why does everyone hate the Cubs' best player again? I feel like I'm missing something.

[SKO]

*skypoint*

Indeed. After Rondon blew it, I was hoping the Cubs would give him the W. Fuckers.

So, why does everyone hate the Cubs' best player again? I feel like I'm missing something.

I'm personally just enjoying the comedy of the absurd. We've got nothing to root for this year BUT history. Samardzia going winless with an ERA under 2.00 would be SO CUBE

[Yeti]

*skypoint*

Indeed. After Rondon blew it, I was hoping the Cubs would give him the W. Fuckers.

So, why does everyone hate the Cubs' best player again? I feel like I'm missing something.

I'm personally just enjoying the comedy of the absurd. We've got nothing to root for this year BUT history. Samardzia going winless with an ERA under 2.00 would be SO CUBE

That, Eli. I want Shark to be awesome, and all, but yea, going winless with a great ERA would be hilarious. Not going to happen, but it'll be funny. It's not like I'll think he had a shitty season cause he'd be 0-15 or whatever. We all know the value he added. He was just the butt of KUBBIOKURENCES.

[Eli]

*skypoint*

Indeed. After Rondon blew it, I was hoping the Cubs would give him the W. Fuckers.

So, why does everyone hate the Cubs' best player again? I feel like I'm missing something.

I'm personally just enjoying the comedy of the absurd. We've got nothing to root for this year BUT history. Samardzia going winless with an ERA under 2.00 would be SO CUBE

That, Eli. I want Shark to be awesome, and all, but yea, going winless with a great ERA would be hilarious. Not going to happen, but it'll be funny. It's not like I'll think he had a shitty season cause he'd be 0-15 or whatever. We all know the value he added. He was just the butt of KUBBIOKURENCES.

I'll allow it. I wasn't sure if it was just Bort who hated Shark or if it somehow went beyond that.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

*skypoint*

Indeed. After Rondon blew it, I was hoping the Cubs would give him the W. Fuckers.

So, why does everyone hate the Cubs' best player again? I feel like I'm missing something.

I thought only Jon did and it was just sort of a meme and contained Pen-approved hatred and such and that not only does everybody not really hate Samarzdija, but I'm pretty nobody does.

(Except maybe Apex)