The Jeff Samardzija Defenestration Thread

[J. Walter Weatherman]

someone better and younger than Shark

I'd love to see your list of these people.

It's in his Friedman_GM Datase.

Have we ever heard what Chuck's datase says about the 2014 Rays season?

[Slaky]

someone better and younger than Shark

I'd love to see your list of these people.

Clayton Kershaw
Jose Fernandez
Masahiro Tanaka
Matt Harvey
Yu Darvish
Felix Hernandez
Madison Bumgarner
Jordan Zimmerman
Steven Strasburg
Michael Wacha
Hyun Jin-Ryu
Chris Sale
Sonny Gray

Pretty sure that's the whole list.
Unfortunately, none of those guys are available.

You guys are certain that there's no prospect the Cubs can get back who doesn't have a major league track record yet that could eventually be better than Samardzija? I hope you're wrong though I definitely understand being itchy about it since pitching prospects (especially starters) are so hit and miss.

That said Shark isn't coming back. He doesn't want to be here. So instead of being sad he's leaving we might as well do better than "no one is available that can ever be better than him".

Unless you're just ChuckShaming which is fine carry on.

[PenFoe]

someone better and younger than Shark

I'd love to see your list of these people.

Clayton Kershaw
Jose Fernandez
Masahiro Tanaka
Matt Harvey
Yu Darvish
Felix Hernandez
Madison Bumgarner
Jordan Zimmerman
Steven Strasburg
Michael Wacha
Hyun Jin-Ryu
Chris Sale
Sonny Gray

Pretty sure that's the whole list.
Unfortunately, none of those guys are available.

You guys are certain that there's no prospect the Cubs can get back who doesn't have a major league track record yet that could eventually be better than Samardzija? I hope you're wrong though I definitely understand being itchy about it since pitching prospects (especially starters) are so hit and miss.

That said Shark isn't coming back. He doesn't want to be here. So instead of being sad he's leaving we might as well do better than "no one is available that can ever be better than him".

Unless you're just ChuckShaming which is fine carry on.

That part.

I'm sad that Samardzija won't be back and I'm concerned about who is going to be at the front of the rotation, but I'm more than prepared to geek out over whatever prospects they get in return and start splooge threads for all of them and follow all their minor league starts and predict greatness.

[Eli]

Unless you're just ChuckShaming which is fine carry on.

That's about 90% of it.

But yeah, it's going to be really tough to get back a single guy who will end up as good as Samardzija. But as has been said, if they can get multiple pieces and sign pitcher of comparable age/ability (I guess Lester or Masterson), that's probably ideal.

[Slaky]

Unless you're just ChuckShaming which is fine carry on.

That's about 90% of it.

But yeah, it's going to be really tough to get back a single guy who will end up as good as Samardzija. But as has been said, if they can get multiple pieces and sign pitcher of comparable age/ability (I guess Lester or Masterson), that's probably ideal.

I'm also pretty grossed out at the idea of stretching out Ramirez. He's been amazing in his role. I feel like putting him in the rotation is begging for disaster (arm injury or just flat out failure).

I don't really care about Grimm. Do whatever you want with him.

[PenFoe]

Unless you're just ChuckShaming which is fine carry on.

That's about 90% of it.

But yeah, it's going to be really tough to get back a single guy who will end up as good as Samardzija. But as has been said, if they can get multiple pieces and sign pitcher of comparable age/ability (I guess Lester or Masterson), that's probably ideal.

I'm also pretty grossed out at the idea of stretching out Ramirez. He's been amazing in his role. I feel like putting him in the rotation is begging for disaster (arm injury or just flat out failure).

I don't really care about Grimm. Do whatever you want with him.

Neil Ramirez is a goddamn badass and no one should do anything with him except watch.

He's by far the prize of the Garza trade so far.

[InternetApex]

Unless you're just ChuckShaming which is fine carry on.

That's about 90% of it.

But yeah, it's going to be really tough to get back a single guy who will end up as good as Samardzija. But as has been said, if they can get multiple pieces and sign pitcher of comparable age/ability (I guess Lester or Masterson), that's probably ideal.

I'm also pretty grossed out at the idea of stretching out Ramirez. He's been amazing in his role. I feel like putting him in the rotation is begging for disaster (arm injury or just flat out failure).

I don't really care about Grimm. Do whatever you want with him.

Neil Ramirez is a goddamn badass and no one should do anything with him except watch.

He's by far the prize of the Garza trade so far.

I've seen him pitch less than 100 times but I'm not convinced that he'll be as good as his early showing suggests. He throws hard but his breaking stuff is has not looked special. Once the league has seen him and has enough to go on, we'll find out what he's good for. Please don't take this as me hating on Ramirez. I really, really want him to be good. I need him to be good. It burns.

But I need to see more. Nothing I have seen so far tells me he's better than Juan Cruz.

[PenFoe]

Unless you're just ChuckShaming which is fine carry on.

That's about 90% of it.

But yeah, it's going to be really tough to get back a single guy who will end up as good as Samardzija. But as has been said, if they can get multiple pieces and sign pitcher of comparable age/ability (I guess Lester or Masterson), that's probably ideal.

I'm also pretty grossed out at the idea of stretching out Ramirez. He's been amazing in his role. I feel like putting him in the rotation is begging for disaster (arm injury or just flat out failure).

I don't really care about Grimm. Do whatever you want with him.

Neil Ramirez is a goddamn badass and no one should do anything with him except watch.

He's by far the prize of the Garza trade so far.

I've seen him pitch less than 100 times but I'm not convinced that he'll be as good as his early showing suggests. He throws hard but his breaking stuff is has not looked special. Once the league has seen him and has enough to go on, we'll find out what he's good for. Please don't take this as me hating on Ramirez. I really, really want him to be good. I need him to be good. It burns.

But I need to see more. Nothing I have seen so far tells me he's better than Juan Cruz.

His fastball will drink your blood.

[Eli]

He throws hard but his breaking stuff is has not looked special.

For what it's worth, the numbers basically back you up on that.

[Eli]

someone better and younger than Shark

I'd love to see your list of these people.

Clayton Kershaw
Jose Fernandez
Masahiro Tanaka
Matt Harvey
Yu Darvish
Felix Hernandez
Madison Bumgarner
Jordan Zimmerman
Steven Strasburg
Michael Wacha
Hyun Jin-Ryu
Chris Sale
Sonny Gray

Pretty sure that's the whole list.
Unfortunately, none of those guys are available.

In a stunner, Chuck has not responded to any of this.

[InternetApex]

He throws hard but his breaking stuff is has not looked special.

For what it's worth, the numbers basically back you up on that.

I is has a feeling that he might be a flash in the pan like poor Kevin Hart, who relied to heavily on his cut fastball. I is has seen the error of my ways though.

[Powdered Toast Man]

Unless you're just ChuckShaming which is fine carry on.

That's about 90% of it.

But yeah, it's going to be really tough to get back a single guy who will end up as good as Samardzija. But as has been said, if they can get multiple pieces and sign pitcher of comparable age/ability (I guess Lester or Masterson), that's probably ideal.

I'm also pretty grossed out at the idea of stretching out Ramirez. He's been amazing in his role. I feel like putting him in the rotation is begging for disaster (arm injury or just flat out failure).

I don't really care about Grimm. Do whatever you want with him.

Something something best pitchers pitching more innings?

[Slaky]

He throws hard but his breaking stuff is has not looked special.

For what it's worth, the numbers basically back you up on that.

He's no Mike Wuertz

[Saul Goodman]

Dave Cameron says Shark isn't even worth what the Cubs offered:

And again, Samardzija isn't going to be a free agent until after next season. If he doesn't sign a long-term deal, he's looking at something in the $9 or $10 million range for 2015 salary. While $85 million over five years might sound light, it's $75 million for four free agent years, or nearly $19 million per season. To get to $100 million over the same term, Samardzija would be asking for the equivalent of $22.5 million for each of his free agent seasons.

There's a lot of money in baseball these days, but is Jeff Samardzija really a $23 million per year pitcher? Keep in mind that he's already 29, so such an extension would be buying out his age-31 to age-34 seasons. Samardzija projects as about a +3 WAR pitcher going forward; given normal aging, he'd be expected to be a roughly average pitcher by the time the extension actually kicks in. We're definitely in a period of inflation in MLB salaries, but average pitchers aren't going to cost $23 million per year in a couple of years.

Even if you think the current estimates of Samardzija's talent levels are too conservative, you have to be really bullish on Samardzija to think that he'd be worth $90 million over his first four free agent seasons. Let's assume that the cost of a win in the 2015 free agent market is $8 million apiece, because we think the league is just going to keep raking in money hand-over-fist. At a $90 million cost for four years, that would require Samardzija to produce roughly +11.25 WAR over those years just to be an average market-value deal.

If Samardzija didn't decline at all between now and then, and entered that market as a +3 WAR pitcher, we'd expect something like a half WAR per season decline, which leads to a total +9 WAR over the following four seasons: +3.0, +2.5, +2.0, +1.5. To get to +11.25 WAR, you'd need him to not decline at all: +3.0, +2.9, +2.8, +2.6 gets you there. But keep in mind that Samardzija projects at about a +3 WAR pitcher in 2014, and we're dealing with 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019. To get that kind of value, you basically need Samardzija to be roughly as good of a pitcher in six years as he is today.

That's the definition of a terrible bet. If Samardzija thinks his market value is $100 million over five years, then the best thing any team can do is probably let him prove it as a free agent in 18 months. Even the Cubs $85 million offer looks a little bit geneorus, given what Samardzija is, where he is in relation to free agency, and how pitchers age. I think the Cubs may end up pleased that he turned their deal down, as now they're free to turn him into some good young talent, and they'll still have that $85 million to go throw at other, almost-as-good free agents if they so choose.

If I'm a team looking to acquire Samardzija, the idea that he's looking for a Bailey-type deal would cause me to view him as a year-and-a-half rental, not a trade-and-sign guy. The Bailey deal is a good comparison for Samardzija to use because it was a bad deal for the Reds. If he's set on getting more than the most recent overpay, then there shouldn't be a lot of teams banging down his door to sign him up long term.

[Eli]

Dave Cameron could be replaced by a robot and no one would know the difference. He just spits out dollar/WAR projections and holds it all as absolute fact. I'm not sure why he even bothers to write columns anymore.