Lilly Rotation; Zambrano Bullpen

[MAD]

Is everyone assuming this move for Zambrano is permanent?

Actually, I think about 5 people said right here in this thread that they thought it was for probably 1 start.

My stand has been anything longer than a week and it quickly infringes upon truly fucked up stupid.  It has that potential.  Stay tuned.    

And to justify it for even 1 week is a pointless exercise.  The fact that we're even at this point is depressing.

[Dr. Nguyen Van Falk]

Halladay is in a world all by himself as far as SP's go these days.  I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if he threatened 30 wins this season.

Wait, what?

I'm sorry. Apparently someone spilled Fucking Insane all over my glasses and I can't clean it off.

Does that say what it looks like it says?

I'm not going to look this up--I know, as I'm sure many here do, that Denny McClain was the last pitcher to win thirty-- but I'm willing to bet that the last time this happened in the National League everybody here but Stew did not exist.   Hell, outside of Bob Welch (1990) and Steve Stone (1980), I don't think too many people here were alive the last time someone won 25.

Dizzy Dean in 1934. Pre-Stew, I believe.

NL 25+ W seasons since 1950:

1972 Steve Carlton (27 W 41 GS)
1969 Tom Seaver (25 W 35 GS)
1968 Juan Marichal (26 W 38 GS)
1966 Sandy Koufax (27 W 41 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 36 GS)
1965 Sandy Koufax (26 W 41 GS)
1963 Sandy Koufax (25 W 40 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 40 GS)
1962 Don Drysdale (25 W 41 GS)
1956 Don Newcombe (27 W 36 GS)
1952 Robin Roberts (28 W 37 GS)

Major league seasons with 40+ GS since 1980:

1987 Charlie Hough (40 GS)
1982 Jim Clancy (40 GS)

[Brownie]

You know what will happen? The Cubs' pitching will get knocked around in Milwaukee, but the Cubs will get back into the game, tying it up in the 9th, taking the lead in the 10th, only to see Marmol blow the save (but not the game). Then we'll go into the 11th with the new relief pitcher. Then the 12th. Then the 13th, when his spot comes up (and he'll hit a bases-empty double as there are no pinch-hitters available). Then the 14th. Then in the 15th when his spot comes up again (he'll homer to give the Cubs a 10-9 lead). He'll allow a cheap run in the bottom of the 15th, probably on a Jeff Baker throwing error, but come out for the 16th, the 17th (when he singles and his stranded on second). Then the 18th. And the 19th. Finally, in the 20th inning, he'll triple and steal home because the offense is so fucking impotent. And the Cubs will take an 11-10 lead. Then he'll get the first two outs in the 20th before he cramps up. So they'll move him to first base, move DLee out to right and bring Silva to pitch on his side day. Silva will load the bases and give up a tape-measure grand slam to Craig Counsell and the Cubs will lose 14-11 despite 9 2/3 innings of 3 hit, 1 run (none earned) ball from Zambrano (who will have also have hit for the cycle despite not batting until the 13th inning). So they'll move him back into the rotation. Except now he has dead arm because of the 140-pitch outing.

[Tony]

Is everyone assuming this move for Zambrano is permanent?

I'm assuming it's permanent because that would be idiotic. Why should I expect anything but the worst?

[Brownie]

Halladay is in a world all by himself as far as SP's go these days.  I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if he threatened 30 wins this season.

Wait, what?

I'm sorry. Apparently someone spilled Fucking Insane all over my glasses and I can't clean it off.

Does that say what it looks like it says?

I'm not going to look this up--I know, as I'm sure many here do, that Denny McClain was the last pitcher to win thirty-- but I'm willing to bet that the last time this happened in the National League everybody here but Stew did not exist.   Hell, outside of Bob Welch (1990) and Steve Stone (1980), I don't think too many people here were alive the last time someone won 25.

Dizzy Dean in 1934. Pre-Stew, I believe.

NL 25+ W seasons since 1950:

1972 Steve Carlton (27 W 41 GS)
1969 Tom Seaver (25 W 35 GS)
1968 Juan Marichal (26 W 38 GS)
1966 Sandy Koufax (27 W 41 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 36 GS)
1965 Sandy Koufax (26 W 41 GS)
1963 Sandy Koufax (25 W 40 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 40 GS)
1962 Don Drysdale (25 W 41 GS)
1956 Don Newcombe (27 W 36 GS)
1952 Robin Roberts (28 W 37 GS)

Major league seasons with 40+ GS since 1980:

1987 Charlie Hough (40 GS)
1982 Jim Clancy (40 GS)

Steve Carlton won 27 games for a 57-win ballclub. Had he been that good in 1980, how many would he have won?

Who the hell gives JIM CLANCY 40 starts??

[Eli]

So last year I counted that the Cubs were in 63 1 or 2 run games, the year before, 70.  There's the old addage: "you win a third, lose a third, and what you do with the other third is what determines your season."  If you consider these games "close" enough to have gone either way, then that makes sense. (And sure, there will be some false games in here--that were made close in the 9th, but there are also probably as many games that were close but made not close in the same manner.)

Assuming each starter gets an equal share of those, Z would influence somewhere between 12 and 14 "close" games as a starter.  Leaving about 20 starts to influence either the more sure L's or W's, assuming a healthy Z making all of his starts.

The Cubs have already played 8 one or two-run games this season and are 2-6 in them.  Assuming that over the season, the range of 63-70 is accurate, that means the Cubs have 55-62 "close" games left.  If Z would pitch in 2/3 of those, he'd influence about 40 "close" games.

If he can have a strong and positive influence on most of those 40 close games, then he might do more for the team winning than he would in the 15 or so starts he'd get in the same "close" games.

I'm not sold on the move, but I think that the knee-jerk reaction so far lacks evidence that's persuasive.  I'm no statfag, but I think there's reason to believe that a 1-inning Z influence in close games could lead to more wins than a 5-9 inning Z influence every fifth day.  That is, I don't think that Lou is outside the bounds of reason here, even if he's wrong.

You are terrible at math.

Thanks to Yeti, RV and others for covering the nuances of the argument in the previous few pages, allowing me to skate by hours later with a brief sarcastic comment.

[MAD]

Halladay is in a world all by himself as far as SP's go these days.  I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if he threatened 30 wins this season.

Wait, what?

I'm sorry. Apparently someone spilled Fucking Insane all over my glasses and I can't clean it off.

Does that say what it looks like it says?

I'm not going to look this up--I know, as I'm sure many here do, that Denny McClain was the last pitcher to win thirty-- but I'm willing to bet that the last time this happened in the National League everybody here but Stew did not exist.   Hell, outside of Bob Welch (1990) and Steve Stone (1980), I don't think too many people here were alive the last time someone won 25.

Dizzy Dean in 1934. Pre-Stew, I believe.

NL 25+ W seasons since 1950:

1972 Steve Carlton (27 W 41 GS)
1969 Tom Seaver (25 W 35 GS)
1968 Juan Marichal (26 W 38 GS)
1966 Sandy Koufax (27 W 41 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 36 GS)
1965 Sandy Koufax (26 W 41 GS)
1963 Sandy Koufax (25 W 40 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 40 GS)
1962 Don Drysdale (25 W 41 GS)
1956 Don Newcombe (27 W 36 GS)
1952 Robin Roberts (28 W 37 GS)

Major league seasons with 40+ GS since 1980:

1987 Charlie Hough (40 GS)
1982 Jim Clancy (40 GS)

So nobody's won 28 since Robin Roberts, who started thirty seven games fifty-eight years ago, and someone admits he'd be "surprised but not shocked" to see Robert's Phillie descendant Hallady "threaten" 30 out, what, 32-34?  Would I be shocked?  Not literally, no.  I can say that you would easily reach consensus that such a feat would be marked as one of the five most momentous individual performances in the last 75 years in baseball history.

[Waco Kid]

It appears that CFiHP has caught some sort of Yellonitis.

[Bort]

Halladay is in a world all by himself as far as SP's go these days.  I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if he threatened 30 wins this season.

Wait, what?

I'm sorry. Apparently someone spilled Fucking Insane all over my glasses and I can't clean it off.

Does that say what it looks like it says?

I'm not going to look this up--I know, as I'm sure many here do, that Denny McClain was the last pitcher to win thirty-- but I'm willing to bet that the last time this happened in the National League everybody here but Stew did not exist.   Hell, outside of Bob Welch (1990) and Steve Stone (1980), I don't think too many people here were alive the last time someone won 25.

Dizzy Dean in 1934. Pre-Stew, I believe.

NL 25+ W seasons since 1950:

1972 Steve Carlton (27 W 41 GS)
1969 Tom Seaver (25 W 35 GS)
1968 Juan Marichal (26 W 38 GS)
1966 Sandy Koufax (27 W 41 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 36 GS)
1965 Sandy Koufax (26 W 41 GS)
1963 Sandy Koufax (25 W 40 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 40 GS)
1962 Don Drysdale (25 W 41 GS)
1956 Don Newcombe (27 W 36 GS)
1952 Robin Roberts (28 W 37 GS)

Major league seasons with 40+ GS since 1980:

1987 Charlie Hough (40 GS)
1982 Jim Clancy (40 GS)

So nobody's won 28 since Robin Roberts, who started thirty seven games fifty-eight years ago, and someone admits he'd be "surprised but not shocked" to see Robert's Phillie descendant Hallady "threaten" 30 out, what, 32-34?  Would I be shocked?  Not literally, no.  I can say that you would easily reach consensus that such a feat would be marked as one of the five most momentous individual performances in the last 75 years in baseball history.

And that includes the time that Daryle Ward ate a Lou Malnati's Pizza topped with a Bacci's Pizza topped with seven McRibs.

[MAD]

Halladay is in a world all by himself as far as SP's go these days.  I'd be surprised, but not shocked, if he threatened 30 wins this season.

Wait, what?

I'm sorry. Apparently someone spilled Fucking Insane all over my glasses and I can't clean it off.

Does that say what it looks like it says?

I'm not going to look this up--I know, as I'm sure many here do, that Denny McClain was the last pitcher to win thirty-- but I'm willing to bet that the last time this happened in the National League everybody here but Stew did not exist.   Hell, outside of Bob Welch (1990) and Steve Stone (1980), I don't think too many people here were alive the last time someone won 25.

Dizzy Dean in 1934. Pre-Stew, I believe.

NL 25+ W seasons since 1950:

1972 Steve Carlton (27 W 41 GS)
1969 Tom Seaver (25 W 35 GS)
1968 Juan Marichal (26 W 38 GS)
1966 Sandy Koufax (27 W 41 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 36 GS)
1965 Sandy Koufax (26 W 41 GS)
1963 Sandy Koufax (25 W 40 GS) and Juan Marichal (25 W 40 GS)
1962 Don Drysdale (25 W 41 GS)
1956 Don Newcombe (27 W 36 GS)
1952 Robin Roberts (28 W 37 GS)

Major league seasons with 40+ GS since 1980:

1987 Charlie Hough (40 GS)
1982 Jim Clancy (40 GS)

So nobody's won 28 since Robin Roberts, who started thirty seven games fifty-eight years ago, and someone admits he'd be "surprised but not shocked" to see Robert's Phillie descendant Hallady "threaten" 30 out, what, 32-34?  Would I be shocked?  Not literally, no.  I can say that you would easily reach consensus that such a feat would be marked as one of the five most momentous individual performances in the last 75 years in baseball history.

And that includes the time that Daryle Ward ate a Lou Malnati's Pizza topped with a Bacci's Pizza topped with seven McRibs.

Which I delivered on my lightcycle, after it fit so neatly in the new folded compartment of my tronsuit?

[Tony]

You guys laugh at CFiHP now, but ESPN has Halladay projected to go 46-0.

http://espndb.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3973

2010 Season Stats
SPLITS   G   GS   CG   SHO   IP   H   R   ER   HR   BB   SO   W   L   P/GS   WHIP   BAA   ERA
Season   4   4   2   1   33.0   26   4   3   1   3   28   4   0   103.0   0.88   .220   0.82
Career   317   291   51   16   2079.2   2023   874   783   173   458   1523   152   76   85.3   1.19   .254   3.39
Last 7 days   2   2   1   1   17.0   13   2   2   1   1   11   2   0   --   0.82   .213   1.06
Projected   46   46   23   12   382   301   46   35   12   35   324   46   0   103.0   0.88   .220   0.82

[Waco Kid]

You guys laugh at CFiHP now, but ESPN has Halladay projected to go 46-0.

http://espndb.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=3973

2010 Season Stats
SPLITS   G   GS   CG   SHO   IP   H   R   ER   HR   BB   SO   W   L   P/GS   WHIP   BAA   ERA
Season   4   4   2   1   33.0   26   4   3   1   3   28   4   0   103.0   0.88   .220   0.82
Career   317   291   51   16   2079.2   2023   874   783   173   458   1523   152   76   85.3   1.19   .254   3.39
Last 7 days   2   2   1   1   17.0   13   2   2   1   1   11   2   0   --   0.82   .213   1.06
Projected   46   46   23   12   382   301   46   35   12   35   324   46   0   103.0   0.88   .220   0.82

Well we really don't know the laws of nature of the other world Halladay's in right now. So anything is possible.

[Internet Apex]

In Halladay World do they still go with a four-man rotation? Because that would be pretty hard on those four Halladays. Maybe Jamie Moyer can take every fifth start in Halladay World to save the four Halladays' arms for the postseason.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UCrXJWvPuw

[Bort]

In Halladay World do they still go with a four-man rotation? Because that would be pretty hard on those four Halladay's. Maybe Jamie Moyer can take every fifth start in Halladay World to save the four Halladay's arms for the postseason.

That would leave only 35 Theriots on the roster.

[Internet Apex]

In Halladay World do they still go with a four-man rotation? Because that would be pretty hard on those four Halladay's. Maybe Jamie Moyer can take every fifth start in Halladay World to save the four Halladay's arms for the postseason.

That would leave only 35 Theriots on the roster.

With four Halladays and Jamie Moyer, 35 Theriots is fairly ample.