The All-Purpose No Bullshit Tolerating Who Should Be the Next Manager Thread

[Chuck to Chuck]

The organization is trying to break down & rebuild Castro and Rizzo, getting them better at working pitch counts.

Yes on Castro, but Rizzo? Not sure. He was drafted by Theo and Jed, traded to Jed and then re-aquired by Theo and Jed. The bulk of his career has been under their tutelage and taught by coaches hired by Theo and/or Jed.

If they have to break him down, it's only because they screwed him up in the beginning.

I don't think they are breaking him down.  I think Rizzo is just having a sophomore slump and is, long term, a 5 or 6 hitter on a very good team.  I don't think his "regression" (take a look at his BABIP) is that awful and, moreover, says anything about Sveum as a manager.

[Internet Apex]

The organization is trying to break down & rebuild Castro and Rizzo, getting them better at working pitch counts.

Yes on Castro, but Rizzo? Not sure. He was drafted by Theo and Jed, traded to Jed and then re-aquired by Theo and Jed. The bulk of his career has been under their tutelage and taught by coaches hired by Theo and/or Jed.

If they have to break him down, it's only because they screwed him up in the beginning.

I don't think they are breaking him down.  I think Rizzo is just having a sophomore slump and is, long term, a 5 or 6 hitter on a very good team.  I don't think his "regression" (take a look at his BABIP) is that awful and, moreover, says anything about Sveum as a manager.

I agree with Chuck.

[Bort]

The organization is trying to break down & rebuild Castro and Rizzo, getting them better at working pitch counts.

Yes on Castro, but Rizzo? Not sure. He was drafted by Theo and Jed, traded to Jed and then re-aquired by Theo and Jed. The bulk of his career has been under their tutelage and taught by coaches hired by Theo and/or Jed.

If they have to break him down, it's only because they screwed him up in the beginning.

I don't think they are breaking him down.  I think Rizzo is just having a sophomore slump and is, long term, a 5 or 6 hitter on a very good team.  I don't think his "regression" (take a look at his BABIP) is that awful and, moreover, says anything about Sveum as a manager.

I agree with Chuck.

I agree with Chuck and Apex.


Can you believe I just typed this?

[Saul Goodman]

The organization is trying to break down & rebuild Castro and Rizzo, getting them better at working pitch counts.

Yes on Castro, but Rizzo? Not sure. He was drafted by Theo and Jed, traded to Jed and then re-aquired by Theo and Jed. The bulk of his career has been under their tutelage and taught by coaches hired by Theo and/or Jed.

If they have to break him down, it's only because they screwed him up in the beginning.

I don't think they are breaking him down.  I think Rizzo is just having a sophomore slump and is, long term, a 5 or 6 hitter on a very good team.  I don't think his "regression" (take a look at his BABIP) is that awful and, moreover, says anything about Sveum as a manager.

I agree with Chuck.

I agree with Chuck and Apex.


Can you believe I just typed this?

My work here is done.

[Eli]

Next year, Baez and Bryant will both show up at some point. If Ephoystink doesn't have confidence in him as a guy who can being those guys along, it has to be addressed. If there's a manager they love that becomes available, that's another thing. But he gave them the record they expected. He won't get fired for that.

Do you think he's at all responsible for the backward steps taken by Castro, Rizzo, and FIREBARN this year?

The organization is trying to break down & rebuild Castro and Rizzo, getting them better at working pitch counts. Hopefully these are still works in progress and they haven't screwed them up. As for Geyser, I think his forward step last year was a fluke. I was hoping they were going to sell high on him.

I still think Samardzija is for real. Probably not as for-real as he was early in the season, but all the peripherals back up his numbers from last year. And they've pretty much held steady this year, too. My baseless hunch is just that he's tired and has just faded in the last few weeks.

[Chuck to Chuck]

I still think Samardzija is for real.

Not me.  His two years as a starter:

G     GS    GF    CG    SHO    IP    H      R       ER       HR     BB    IBB    SO    HBP    ERA+    WHIP
58    58    0      3      1    369.1    349    181    170    43    128    4    375    11    97    1.292

I think he's an ERA+ 100 pitcher. He's also 29 next January, so he should be peaking right about now.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

I think he's an ERA+ 100 pitcher.

So, what you're saying is that all of your exhaustive research of the data in front of you tells you that Samardzija is a league average pitcher.

Which means he's bringing his team a solid 2+ wins above replacement every season as a starter. Which marginal wins, in turn, could cost a team upwards of $10MM per year to replace in free agency.

Sounds like a bargain at a salary of a mere $2.64MM per!

[Eli]

I think he's an ERA+ 100 pitcher.

So, what you're saying is that all of your exhaustive research of the data in front of you tells you that Samardzija is a league average pitcher.

Which means he's bringing his team a solid 2+ wins above replacement every season as a starter. Which marginal wins, in turn, could cost a team upwards of $10MM per year to replace in free agency.

Sounds like a bargain at a salary of a mere $2.64MM per!

You got there before me. League average (with upside to be better than that) is still pretty valuable and, at age 29-next-January, he's still reasonably young for a pitcher.

Edit: "Reasonably young" probably isn't accurate. "Not old" would probably be a better phrasing.

[Bort]

I'd still prefer he end up in a mysterious barn-related arson.

[Chuck to Chuck]

I think he's an ERA+ 100 pitcher.

So, what you're saying is that all of your exhaustive research of the data in front of you tells you that Samardzija is a league average pitcher.

Which means he's bringing his team a solid 2+ wins above replacement every season as a starter. Which marginal wins, in turn, could cost a team upwards of $10MM per year to replace in free agency.

Sounds like a bargain at a salary of a mere $2.64MM per!

You got there before me. League average (with upside to be better than that) is still pretty valuable and, at age 29-next-January, he's still reasonably young for a pitcher.

Edit: "Reasonably young" probably isn't accurate. "Not old" would probably be a better phrasing.

I think he's fine as a #4 or #5 on a good team. And at his current price, he's fine. He may be passed his prime trading opportunity.

And he's not a 2WAR guy this year. He's 0.6 (per BBR), down from 1.8 in 2012.

[Eli]

I think he's an ERA+ 100 pitcher.

So, what you're saying is that all of your exhaustive research of the data in front of you tells you that Samardzija is a league average pitcher.

Which means he's bringing his team a solid 2+ wins above replacement every season as a starter. Which marginal wins, in turn, could cost a team upwards of $10MM per year to replace in free agency.

Sounds like a bargain at a salary of a mere $2.64MM per!

You got there before me. League average (with upside to be better than that) is still pretty valuable and, at age 29-next-January, he's still reasonably young for a pitcher.

Edit: "Reasonably young" probably isn't accurate. "Not old" would probably be a better phrasing.

I think he's fine as a #4 or #5 on a good team. And at his current price, he's fine. He may be passed his prime trading opportunity.

And he's not a 2WAR guy this year. He's 0.6 (per BBR), down from 1.8 in 2012.

2.5 wins on Fangraphs. BR uses ERA to calculate theirs while Fangraphs uses FIP (I believe). Since Samardzija's been a little unlucky in the ERA department this year, the BR metric dings him.

I think it's reasonable to assume he can be a 2-3 win pitcher over the next few years. Which, as Thrill said, is easily worth at least $10 million a year.

[PenFoe]

I think he's an ERA+ 100 pitcher.

So, what you're saying is that all of your exhaustive research of the data in front of you tells you that Samardzija is a league average pitcher.

Which means he's bringing his team a solid 2+ wins above replacement every season as a starter. Which marginal wins, in turn, could cost a team upwards of $10MM per year to replace in free agency.

Sounds like a bargain at a salary of a mere $2.64MM per!

You got there before me. League average (with upside to be better than that) is still pretty valuable and, at age 29-next-January, he's still reasonably young for a pitcher.

Edit: "Reasonably young" probably isn't accurate. "Not old" would probably be a better phrasing.

I think he's fine as a #4 or #5 on a good team. And at his current price, he's fine. He may be passed his prime trading opportunity.

And he's not a 2WAR guy this year. He's 0.6 (per BBR), down from 1.8 in 2012.

2.5 wins on Fangraphs. BR uses ERA to calculate theirs while Fangraphs uses FIP (I believe). Since Samardzija's been a little unlucky in the ERA department this year, the BR metric dings him.

I think it's reasonable to assume he can be a 2-3 win pitcher over the next few years. Which, as Thrill said, is easily worth at least $10 million a year.

I don't know about all these fancy stats, but I hope Samardzija can win more than 2-3 games over the next few years.

[Quality Start Machine]

Whatever Jeff Samardzija is able to achieve over the next few years, I'd be just as happy if it happens elsewhere.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

And he's not a 2WAR guy this year. He's 0.6 (per BBR), down from 1.8 in 2012.

As Eli notes, different statfags use different component stats to calculate their versions of WAR, so value numbers are going to vary from site to site.

Here, for sake of completeness, are the Geyser's valuations from Baseball Reference (bWAR), FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Prospectus (WARP) for 2012 and 2013 to date:

      bWAR  fWAR  WARP
2012   1.8   3.0   2.7
2013   0.6   2.5   2.3

But, even forgoing all of that, way to move the fucking goalposts.

Yes, per B-R he's not a 2 WAR guy this year. He's not a 100 ERA+ guy this year, either.

So I don't know why his 2013 numbers alone are suddenly the WAR yardstick when you're the one saying that your ample data and research suggests that he's a 100 ERA+ guy going forward.

100 ERA+ is league average by definition. I assume you knew that when posting, and that that was why you picked 100 as your well-considered projection.

Well, an "average" starter offers a team something in the ballpark of 2 marginal wins above replacement level. Non-normal distributions. Long tails. All that jazz.

And, lo and behold, guess who had an ERA+ of just over 100 last season (107) to go with that bWAR of nearly 2 (1.8).

Fancy that.

[PenFoe]

So, are we saying the Samardzija should not be the next manager?

Because I support that.