Bears Fans Are Concussed, Like Their Quarterback - 10/03/10.

[Internet Apex]

Stop arguing with Yeti about teh maths. Nerds.

[Brownie]

So, the law of large numbers doesn't indicate that over time the numbers will average out to the norm?

I don't think you get how "regression to the mean" works.

We'll take Longoria as out example...

He's a career .283 hitter.

Say he hits at .450 for the first month of a season. Regression to the mean doesn't suggest he's therefore more likely to hit .166 the second month to even out his overall BA at .283.

Rather, regression to the mean suggests (more or less) that he's likely to hit .283 going forward and that the overall average will therefore gradually fall back to Earth.

Part of the reason that I wanted to stay away from baseball as a comparison is because baseball is more "vacuum-y" (if you will) than football. There are more factors involved. Like I said originally, part of it has to do with opposing adjustments that have more of an effect on the next instance (or return).

I get that adjustments matter.

I'm just not sure that you do.

Because you're argument seems to boil down to: don't worry about making adjustments to your kicking game (by not kicking it to Hester the second time)... the adjustments to your kicking game will surely stop him!

So, I said teams shouldn't make adjustments or don't make adjustments? The return is the mainly result of an "error" if you will, a mistake, usually by the kicking team (not in the lane, bad punt, pisspoor tackling, etc). Based on the fact that the majority of returns aren't taken back for 100 yards every time, it stands to reason that the following return won't yield the exact same circumstances and results (a TD).

The NFL isn't like HS football where a great player can literally run circles around an opposing team.

I get it now. You're messing with everyone.

You've never seen a HS football game where there was one player who was insanely better than anyone else? I know I have a propensity to attend these to scope out the local wool, but you should see some more of it. It's actually a pretty good time.

A couple weeks ago, I covered a high school game (excuse the shitty writing) where a running back had 276 rushing yards in the first half. He figuratively ran circles around the opposing team.

I also covered a HS football game where they had a guy running on the track throughout the game. He was an older man, and I doubt he could really do anything of consequence (except fumble the ball and get injured) if they put him into the game. Funny thing was that he literally ran circles around BOTH teams.

CORRECTED: Ovals. He literally ran ovals around both teams.

[R-V]

The NFL isn't like HS football where a great player can literally run circles around an opposing team.

I get it now. You're messing with everyone.

You've never seen a HS football game where there was one player who was insanely better than anyone else? I know I have a propensity to attend these to scope out the local wool, but you should see some more of it. It's actually a pretty good time.

That person is so good that he has the time to literally run in an even 360-degree shape around his opponents? No, I haven't seen that.

You've obviously never attended a game at Outdoor Shitter Stadium in the Bumfuck Nowheresville Conference. You elitist prick.

[Tony]

http://twitter.com/BradBiggs

#Bears signing DE Charles Grant per @vxmcclure23. He will take place of Mark Anderson, who was cut per his agent.

Didn't the Anderson over Brown experiment fail once before? Nice choice, Lovie.

Brown was owed a 5 or 6 Mildo roster bonus so it was an easy choice. But not the right choice, Jerry.

Well then they should have cut Tommie instead. And yeah, I like Alex Brown probably more than he deserves, but he was reliable dammit.

[Yeti]

So, the law of large numbers doesn't indicate that over time the numbers will average out to the norm?

I don't think you get how "regression to the mean" works.

We'll take Longoria as out example...

He's a career .283 hitter.

Say he hits at .450 for the first month of a season. Regression to the mean doesn't suggest he's therefore more likely to hit .166 the second month to even out his overall BA at .283.

Rather, regression to the mean suggests (more or less) that he's likely to hit .283 going forward and that the overall average will therefore gradually fall back to Earth.

Part of the reason that I wanted to stay away from baseball as a comparison is because baseball is more "vacuum-y" (if you will) than football. There are more factors involved. Like I said originally, part of it has to do with opposing adjustments that have more of an effect on the next instance (or return).

I get that adjustments matter.

I'm just not sure that you do.

Because you're argument seems to boil down to: don't worry about making adjustments to your kicking game (by not kicking it to Hester the second time)... the adjustments to your kicking game will surely stop him!

So, I said teams shouldn't make adjustments or don't make adjustments? The return is the mainly result of an "error" if you will, a mistake, usually by the kicking team (not in the lane, bad punt, pisspoor tackling, etc). Based on the fact that the majority of returns aren't taken back for 100 yards every time, it stands to reason that the following return won't yield the exact same circumstances and results (a TD).

The NFL isn’t like HS football where a great player can literally run circles around an opposing team.

I get it now. You're messing with everyone.

You've never seen a HS football game where there was one player who was insanely better than anyone else? I know I have a propensity to attend these to scope out the local wool, but you should see some more of it. It's actually a pretty good time.

A couple weeks ago, I covered a high school game (excuse the shitty writing) where a running back had 276 rushing yards in the first half. He figuratively ran circles around the opposing team.

I also covered a HS football game where they had a guy running on the track throughout the game. He was an older man, and I doubt he could really do anything of consequence (except fumble the ball and get injured) if they put him into the game. Funny thing was that he literally ran circles around BOTH teams.

CORRECTED: Ovals. He literally ran ovals around both teams.

I may have exaggerated the "literal" thing, but it's people like that kid that I'm referring to. Put that kid on punt returns and he'll probably average 25-30 yards a return

[Internet Apex]

http://twitter.com/BradBiggs

#Bears signing DE Charles Grant per @vxmcclure23. He will take place of Mark Anderson, who was cut per his agent.

Didn't the Anderson over Brown experiment fail once before? Nice choice, Lovie.

Brown was owed a 5 or 6 Mildo roster bonus so it was an easy choice. But not the right choice, Jerry.

Well then they should have cut Tommie instead. And yeah, I like Alex Brown probably more than he deserves, but he was reliable dammit.

I don't think they had/have the depth at DT to cut Harris, as disappointing as he is to us, Lovie, his parents, God and everybody. And yet Charles Grants grow on trees.

[Tinker to Evers to Chance]

So, the law of large numbers doesn't indicate that over time the numbers will average out to the norm?

I don't think you get how "regression to the mean" works.

We'll take Longoria as out example...

He's a career .283 hitter.

Say he hits at .450 for the first month of a season. Regression to the mean doesn't suggest he's therefore more likely to hit .166 the second month to even out his overall BA at .283.

Rather, regression to the mean suggests (more or less) that he's likely to hit .283 going forward and that the overall average will therefore gradually fall back to Earth.

Part of the reason that I wanted to stay away from baseball as a comparison is because baseball is more "vacuum-y" (if you will) than football. There are more factors involved. Like I said originally, part of it has to do with opposing adjustments that have more of an effect on the next instance (or return).

I get that adjustments matter.

I'm just not sure that you do.

Because you're argument seems to boil down to: don't worry about making adjustments to your kicking game (by not kicking it to Hester the second time)... the adjustments to your kicking game will surely stop him!

So, I said teams shouldn't make adjustments or don't make adjustments? The return is the mainly result of an "error" if you will, a mistake, usually by the kicking team (not in the lane, bad punt, pisspoor tackling, etc). Based on the fact that the majority of returns aren't taken back for 100 yards every time, it stands to reason that the following return won't yield the exact same circumstances and results (a TD).

The NFL isn't like HS football where a great player can literally run circles around an opposing team.

I get it now. You're messing with everyone.

You've never seen a HS football game where there was one player who was insanely better than anyone else? I know I have a propensity to attend these to scope out the local wool, but you should see some more of it. It's actually a pretty good time.

A couple weeks ago, I covered a high school game (excuse the shitty writing) where a running back had 276 rushing yards in the first half. He figuratively ran circles around the opposing team.

I also covered a HS football game where they had a guy running on the track throughout the game. He was an older man, and I doubt he could really do anything of consequence (except fumble the ball and get injured) if they put him into the game. Funny thing was that he literally ran circles around BOTH teams.

CORRECTED: Ovals. He literally ran ovals around both teams.

I may have exaggerated the "literal" thing, but it's people like that kid that I'm referring to. Put that kid on punt returns and he'll probably average 25-30 yards a return

Every post you make in this thread is literally dumber than the one you made before it.

[Bort]

You cannot EXAGGERATE "literally." The most unique thing about the word literal is that when you misuse it, you are using it exactly wrong.

[Brownie]

So, the law of large numbers doesn't indicate that over time the numbers will average out to the norm?

I don't think you get how "regression to the mean" works.

We'll take Longoria as out example...

He's a career .283 hitter.

Say he hits at .450 for the first month of a season. Regression to the mean doesn't suggest he's therefore more likely to hit .166 the second month to even out his overall BA at .283.

Rather, regression to the mean suggests (more or less) that he's likely to hit .283 going forward and that the overall average will therefore gradually fall back to Earth.

Part of the reason that I wanted to stay away from baseball as a comparison is because baseball is more "vacuum-y" (if you will) than football. There are more factors involved. Like I said originally, part of it has to do with opposing adjustments that have more of an effect on the next instance (or return).

I get that adjustments matter.

I'm just not sure that you do.

Because you're argument seems to boil down to: don't worry about making adjustments to your kicking game (by not kicking it to Hester the second time)... the adjustments to your kicking game will surely stop him!

So, I said teams shouldn't make adjustments or don't make adjustments? The return is the mainly result of an "error" if you will, a mistake, usually by the kicking team (not in the lane, bad punt, pisspoor tackling, etc). Based on the fact that the majority of returns aren't taken back for 100 yards every time, it stands to reason that the following return won't yield the exact same circumstances and results (a TD).

The NFL isn't like HS football where a great player can literally run circles around an opposing team.

I get it now. You're messing with everyone.

You've never seen a HS football game where there was one player who was insanely better than anyone else? I know I have a propensity to attend these to scope out the local wool, but you should see some more of it. It's actually a pretty good time.

A couple weeks ago, I covered a high school game (excuse the shitty writing) where a running back had 276 rushing yards in the first half. He figuratively ran circles around the opposing team.

I also covered a HS football game where they had a guy running on the track throughout the game. He was an older man, and I doubt he could really do anything of consequence (except fumble the ball and get injured) if they put him into the game. Funny thing was that he literally ran circles around BOTH teams.

CORRECTED: Ovals. He literally ran ovals around both teams.

I may have exaggerated the "literal" thing, but it's people like that kid that I'm referring to. Put that kid on punt returns and he'll probably average 25-30 yards a return

But if he averages a 30 yard return, what then if his first return was 96 yards, his second was 79 and the other team punting out of the end zone the third time?

[Yeti]

You cannot EXAGGERATE "literally." The most unique thing about the word literal is that when you misuse it, you are using it exactly wrong.

It would be ok if Thrill didn't steal Eli's password to bust pedantnuts over the usage of a word when the meaning of what was supposed to be conveyed was clearly understood.

But if he averages a 30 yard return, what then if his first return was 96 yards, his second was 79 and the other team punting out of the end zone the third time?

Then he happened to average 87.5 yards/return. Good on him

[Internet Apex]

What if they kick the next one out of bounds? What then?

[Brownie]

You cannot EXAGGERATE "literally." The most unique thing about the word literal is that when you misuse it, you are using it exactly wrong.

It would be ok if Thrill didn't steal Eli's password to bust pedantnuts over the usage of a word when the meaning of what was supposed to be conveyed was clearly understood.

But if he averages a 30 yard return, what then if his first return was 96 yards, his second was 79 and the other team punting out of the end zone the third time?

Then he happened to average 87.5 yards/return. Good on him

I just like watching the bouncing from Katy Perry everytime you post.

[Bort]

You cannot EXAGGERATE "literally." The most unique thing about the word literal is that when you misuse it, you are using it exactly wrong.

It would be ok if Thrill didn't steal Eli's password to bust pedantnuts over the usage of a word when the meaning of what was supposed to be conveyed was clearly understood.

If the meaning was clear to everyone, no one would have to call you on it.

[Internet Apex]

I guess we'll always have opening day 2006 at Green Bay in which Mark Anderson was in full-beast mode on Favre's face, the Bears returned a kick for a TD and Yeti was nowhere to be found.

[Brownie]

I guess we'll always have opening day 2006 at Green Bay in which Mark Anderson was in full-beast mode on Favre's face, the Bears returned a kick for a TD and Yeti was literally nowhere to be found.