Theo Epstein Sploosh Thread

[Eli]

Don't even get Chuck started on Aaron Rodger's 4th-and-11 TD pass last month. 

Pretty sure he's still glowing over that one.

https://twitter.com/ivychat/status/420252164926078976

I don't think "making the playoffs" is the same as "middle of the road."

Especially in the NFL, where the last several Superbowl winners before this year were all 10-6 or 9-7 teams, including one in the Giants that actually gave up more points than they scored during the regular season, proving that if you can just make it in you have a shot at winning the whole fucking thing. In Chuck's defense, having the 14th overall pick instead of the 21st and the honor of having your shit kicked in by the 49ers is a decent consolation prize, but Not wanting an NFL team to make the playoffs is horribly stupid.

You're right, it's true in the NFL but it's also true in every sport except the NBA. Low seeded hockey teams win often, right? And the baseball playoffs are kind of a crap shoot. The NBA is the only sport where the top teams almost always win the title.

Plus, sometimes it's just fun to see your favorite team make the playoffs.

Then again, Chuck doesn't like sports, so we're full circle yet again.

[SKO]

Don't even get Chuck started on Aaron Rodger's 4th-and-11 TD pass last month. 

Pretty sure he's still glowing over that one.

https://twitter.com/ivychat/status/420252164926078976

I don't think "making the playoffs" is the same as "middle of the road."

Especially in the NFL, where the last several Superbowl winners before this year were all 10-6 or 9-7 teams, including one in the Giants that actually gave up more points than they scored during the regular season, proving that if you can just make it in you have a shot at winning the whole fucking thing. In Chuck's defense, having the 14th overall pick instead of the 21st and the honor of having your shit kicked in by the 49ers is a decent consolation prize, but Not wanting an NFL team to make the playoffs is horribly stupid.

You're right, it's true in the NFL but it's also true in every sport except the NBA. Low seeded hockey teams win often, right? And the baseball playoffs are kind of a crap shoot. The NBA is the only sport where the top teams almost always win the title.

Plus, sometimes it's just fun to see your favorite team make the playoffs.

Then again, Chuck doesn't like sports, so we're full circle yet again.

And yet it was Chuck who was arguing a few short years ago that the NFL had "no great teams": http://www.desipio.com/messageboard/index.php?topic=7056.msg250538#msg250538

Which you would think would mean he'd be on board with the "just make the playoffs" theory.

[Quality Start Machine]

Don't even get Chuck started on Aaron Rodger's 4th-and-11 TD pass last month. 

Pretty sure he's still glowing over that one.

https://twitter.com/ivychat/status/420252164926078976

I don't think "making the playoffs" is the same as "middle of the road."

Especially in the NFL, where the last several Superbowl winners before this year were all 10-6 or 9-7 teams, including one in the Giants that actually gave up more points than they scored during the regular season, proving that if you can just make it in you have a shot at winning the whole fucking thing. In Chuck's defense, having the 14th overall pick instead of the 21st and the honor of having your shit kicked in by the 49ers is a decent consolation prize, but Not wanting an NFL team to make the playoffs is horribly stupid.

You're right, it's true in the NFL but it's also true in every sport except the NBA. Low seeded hockey teams win often, right? And the baseball playoffs are kind of a crap shoot. The NBA is the only sport where the top teams almost always win the title get Apex as a life-long fan.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Don't even get Chuck started on Aaron Rodger's 4th-and-11 TD pass last month.  

Pretty sure he's still glowing over that one.

https://twitter.com/ivychat/status/420252164926078976

I don't think "making the playoffs" is the same as "middle of the road."

Especially in the NFL, where the last several Superbowl winners before this year were all 10-6 or 9-7 teams, including one in the Giants that actually gave up more points than they scored during the regular season, proving that if you can just make it in you have a shot at winning the whole fucking thing. In Chuck's defense, having the 14th overall pick instead of the 21st and the honor of having your shit kicked in by the 49ers is a decent consolation prize, but Not wanting an NFL team to make the playoffs is horribly stupid.

You're right, it's true in the NFL but it's also true in every sport except the NBA. Low seeded hockey teams win often, right? And the baseball playoffs are kind of a crap shoot. The NBA is the only sport where the top teams almost always win the title.

How often regular season champions win playoff titles...

NBA 16-team playoffs (1984-2013): 13/30
NHL 16-team playoffs (1980-2013): 11/33
NFL 12-team playoffs (1991-2013): 6/23
MLB 8-team playoffs (1995-2011): 3/17
MLB 10-team playoffs (2012-2013): 1/2

Compared to the expected odds for each playoff-bound team if winners in each format were decided by coin-flipping computers instead of by burly men on the field of battle...

NBA: 43% vs. 6.25%
NHL: 33% vs. 6.25%
NFL: 26% vs. 6.25% or 12.5% with a bye
MLB (8): 18% vs. 12.5%
MLB (10): 50% vs. 6.25% wild card or 12.5% division champs

[InternetApex]

Chuck stood and cheered when Hue Hollins' questionable foul call on Scottie Pippen denied the Bulls a chance to win a title without Michael.

The one questionable call that went against the Bulls during an eight-year stretch. Never forget.

[Eli]

How often regular season champions win playoff titles...

NBA 16-team playoffs (1984-2013): 13/30
NHL 16-team playoffs (1980-2013): 11/33
NFL 12-team playoffs (1991-2013): 6/23
MLB 8-team playoffs (1995-2011): 3/17
MLB 10-team playoffs (2012-2013): 1/2

Compared to the expected odds for each playoff-bound team if winners in each format were decided by coin-flipping computers instead of by burly men on the field of battle...

NBA: 43% vs. 6.25%
NHL: 33% vs. 6.25%
NFL: 26% vs. 6.25% or 12.5% with a bye
MLB (8): 18% vs. 12.5%
MLB (10): 50% vs. 6.25% wild card or 12.5% division champs

Thanks for this. Similar to what I would have guessed, though the NFL is even more random than I thought it would be.

[Slaky]

Chuck stood and cheered when Hue Hollins' questionable foul call on Scottie Pippen denied the Bulls a chance to win a title without Michael.

The one questionable call that went against the Bulls during an eight-year stretch. Never forget.

He has a point.

[Slaky]

With news that AJ Burnett is going to pitch I would love it if the Cubs offered him a short term deal (1 or 2 years, max) at a high rate of pay.

Pretty much just like paying for prospects if he gives you anything close to what he gave the Pirates last year.

MLB network seems to think the Orioles will be going after him.

[SKO]

Honest question, has free agency completely dried up in the last five years or so? Or when I was younger and dumber did I just ignore the downside of it in favor of OH COOL THEY SIGNED THIS GUY I'VE HEARD OF? Because I feel like there was a time when building an MLB team through free agency wasn't actually that terrible and there were more good players available than there are now. Now MLB free agency seems like it's come to be worse than NFL free agency, where everyone overpays for the tiny handful of truly good players and then goes bargain shopping for castoffs.

[InternetApex]

With news that AJ Burnett is going to pitch I would love it if the Cubs offered him a short term deal (1 or 2 years, max) at a high rate of pay.

Pretty much just like paying for prospects if he gives you anything close to what he gave the Pirates last year.

MLB network seems to think the Orioles will be going after him.

I don't think he's putting off retirement to pitch for a team that's about to lose 90 games.

[Eli]

Honest question, has free agency completely dried up in the last five years or so?

Sort of. Teams are buying out star players' arbitration years and then usually extending them before they ever hit free agency. The Rays did it with Longoria and a bunch of teams have followed suit since.

[Eli]

With news that AJ Burnett is going to pitch I would love it if the Cubs offered him a short term deal (1 or 2 years, max) at a high rate of pay.

Pretty much just like paying for prospects if he gives you anything close to what he gave the Pirates last year.

MLB network seems to think the Orioles will be going after him.

I don't think he's putting off retirement to pitch for a team that's about to lose 90 games.

Someone put some muscle optimism in their frappucino this morning.

[InternetApex]

With news that AJ Burnett is going to pitch I would love it if the Cubs offered him a short term deal (1 or 2 years, max) at a high rate of pay.

Pretty much just like paying for prospects if he gives you anything close to what he gave the Pirates last year.

MLB network seems to think the Orioles will be going after him.

I don't think he's putting off retirement to pitch for a team that's about to lose 90 games.

Someone put some muscle optimism in their frappucino this morning.

90+ then?

[Yeti]

Honest question, has free agency completely dried up in the last five years or so? Or when I was younger and dumber did I just ignore the downside of it in favor of OH COOL THEY SIGNED THIS GUY I'VE HEARD OF? Because I feel like there was a time when building an MLB team through free agency wasn't actually that terrible and there were more good players available than there are now. Now MLB free agency seems like it's come to be worse than NFL free agency, where everyone overpays for the tiny handful of truly good players and then goes bargain shopping for castoffs.

Top signings from 2006 to current (top=biggest contracts):

2006: Soriano (FYC), Zito, Carlos Lee, A-Ram (same team), JD Drew, Gil Meche (BC!!!!!!!), Matsuzaka

2007: A-Rod (same team), Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand, Jorge Posada (same team), Carlos Silva (Fuck You), Fransisco Cordero

2008: Teixeira, Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, Dempster (same team), Manny Ramirez (same team), Fransisco Rodriguez

2009: Holliday (same team), Lackey, Bay, Figgins (YOUR FIRST NAME IS RETARDED(spelled)), Chapman, Randy Wolf (ouch)

2010: Carl Crawford, Werth (REPRESENT), Cliff Lee, Beltre, Dunn

2011: Pujols, Prince, Jose Reyes, CJ Wilson, Yu, Buehrle

2012: Greinke, JOSH HAMILTON, Anibal (same team, YOU FUCKING TEASE), BJ Upton(second thoughts?), Swisher (wow), EJAX!!!!!!!

2013: Cano, Tanakafuckyu, Ellsbury, Choo, McCann, Granderson
It should be noted that ESPN's number 4 and number 6 ranked FAs haven't signed, Ubaldo and Ervin Santana, respectively

So, yes?

I didn't do the math, but about 90% of those guys went to the Yankees.

[Slaky]

With news that AJ Burnett is going to pitch I would love it if the Cubs offered him a short term deal (1 or 2 years, max) at a high rate of pay.

Pretty much just like paying for prospects if he gives you anything close to what he gave the Pirates last year.

MLB network seems to think the Orioles will be going after him.

I don't think he's putting off retirement to pitch for a team that's about to lose 90 games.

You don't know that. It's entirely possible he's got a shitload of alimony or child support to pay. Or he bought too many houses.

Whatever, if a team can overpay him for a short year or 2 of service it's the Cubs.

Also, like I said, going to the Cubs is actually a much safer way to get on a winning team. He'd basically get to pick his best choice halfway through the season instead of taking a leap with Baltimore, or whatever.