Theo Epstein Sploosh Thread

[Slaky]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

[Eli]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

You could have said it yourself. You don't always have to be so reluctant to post things on the Internet.

[R-V]

But even good teams with big payrolls need undervalued free agent signings - there will inevitably be underperformance/injury for your high-paid star players. I'm not suggesting you take a pass on guys like Lester & Scherzer in favor of guys like McCarthy & Masterson; I'm saying I don't see a problem with continuing to take flyers on low-cost guys while AT THE SAME TIME busting out the checkbook for a big-ticket guy like Lester. They've got the payroll flexibility to do both.

Well, you should have just said in the first place!

I thought I did!

Let's move on from the pitching discussion. What free agent position players would you like the Cubs to pursue, Desipiots?

Melky.

How about Markakis? What are he and Melky expected to get contract-wise?

[InternetApex]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

You could have said it yourself. You don't always have to be so reluctant to post things on the Internet.

They probably already have a handshake with Lester and all this talk of trading prospects is a bunch of Chuckspeak that you sheeple have adopted.

Fuck off.

[Saul Goodman]

Here's your list.  If they don't sign all of them that would mean the team just isn't serious about competing and hey, who owns the Cubs, anyway?

[Slaky]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

You could have said it yourself. You don't always have to be so reluctant to post things on the Internet.

They probably already have a handshake with Lester and all this talk of trading prospects is a bunch of Chuckspeak that you sheeple have adopted.

Fuck off.

I hope they do. He's selling his Boston area home. And earlier you asked why it would be bad if he went to the Yankees and not the Dodgers - it would be bad because the Yankees are shitty and will be shitty for a while. Lester won't win them the East on his own. And it says he's out for top dollar. Hell, he's already won twice. If HE'S out for top dollar AND the Cubs aren't quite the FA attraction we like to think they're becoming that would be a bummer.

At least if he signed with the Dodgers I could say well that's a team that's going to be damn good so I get it. He knows they're going to win right away. Not maybe this year and hopefully next year.

The reason why I don't hate the idea of trading for a guy like Hamels who is locked into a contract is you don't have to hope he chooses you amidst a bunch of sharks bidding top dollar for his services. As far as players as currency goes, the Cubs are one of the richest teams there is. So no - you don't have to like the idea of trading for a guy who might get injured because he's pitched a lot. And his past performance isn't something you want to reward - but it's already been rewarded. And he's been really good for a long long time.

Like Eli said I don't think that'll just change because he's a Cub. When you trade for a guy you remove the sales pitch. Maybe the Cubs sales pitch isn't quite as good as we think it is. That's all I'm saying.

[InternetApex]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

You could have said it yourself. You don't always have to be so reluctant to post things on the Internet.

They probably already have a handshake with Lester and all this talk of trading prospects is a bunch of Chuckspeak that you sheeple have adopted.

Fuck off.

I hope they do. He's selling his Boston area home. And earlier you asked why it would be bad if he went to the Yankees and not the Dodgers - it would be bad because the Yankees are shitty and will be shitty for a while. Lester won't win them the East on his own. And it says he's out for top dollar. Hell, he's already won twice. If HE'S out for top dollar AND the Cubs aren't quite the FA attraction we like to think they're becoming that would be a bummer.

At least if he signed with the Dodgers I could say well that's a team that's going to be damn good so I get it. He knows they're going to win right away. Not maybe this year and hopefully next year.

The reason why I don't hate the idea of trading for a guy like Hamels who is locked into a contract is you don't have to hope he chooses you amidst a bunch of sharks bidding top dollar for his services. As far as players as currency goes, the Cubs are one of the richest teams there is. So no - you don't have to like the idea of trading for a guy who might get injured because he's pitched a lot. And his past performance isn't something you want to reward - but it's already been rewarded. And he's been really good for a long long time.

Like Eli said I don't think that'll just change because he's a Cub. When you trade for a guy you remove the sales pitch. Maybe the Cubs sales pitch isn't quite as good as we think it is. That's all I'm saying.

All of that makes some sense. I've got a longstanding policy of waiting to see how things play out and losing my shit on the internet from time to time for the sheer thrill of it. So that's what I'm about to do.

But as for a guy choosing the Yankees, if he wants to do that, fine. I don't give a shit about Lester. I never much liked the guy really. If he pitches for the Dodgers though, that will suck more because they're in the National damn League and that.

[Chuck to Chuck]

Maybe the Cubs sales pitch isn't quite as good as we think it is. That's all I'm saying.

Given their ability to close the deal for Tanaka and Sanchez, there's nothing wrong thinking this way.

[SKO]

Maybe the Cubs sales pitch isn't quite as good as we think it is. That's all I'm saying.

Given their ability to close the deal for Tanaka and Sanchez, there's nothing wrong thinking this way.

True, but I feel like the pitch has to be stronger now than it was even then. There are tangible results to point to. Last offseason you couldn't even really make a great pitch for Rizzo being a building block, and now he's one of the best offensive weapons in the NL. Castro having a bounce back year helps. Soler contributing immediately helps. Baez and Alcantara have done enough things you can point to and make a strong case for them being good offensive players next year.

I get the fear, but I don't think the Tanaka/Sanchez comparison is all that relevant. The plan is far less of a fanciful dream than it was at this point last year.

[Slaky]

Maybe the Cubs sales pitch isn't quite as good as we think it is. That's all I'm saying.

Given their ability to close the deal for Tanaka and Sanchez, there's nothing wrong thinking this way.

True, but I feel like the pitch has to be stronger now than it was even then. There are tangible results to point to. Last offseason you couldn't even really make a great pitch for Rizzo being a building block, and now he's one of the best offensive weapons in the NL. Castro having a bounce back year helps. Soler contributing immediately helps. Baez and Alcantara have done enough things you can point to and make a strong case for them being good offensive players next year.

I get the fear, but I don't think the Tanaka/Sanchez comparison is all that relevant. The plan is far less of a fanciful dream than it was at this point last year.

And it's getting better. But there is no way to say "we're gonna be in the playoffs this year" because they finished in last place again. It's easy to say the talent is halfway there and more on the way. We all know it is. If the Dodgers offer the same money or more how the hell do you say no? You better hope Lester and Theo are thick as thieves or it's more reclamation bullshit.

[CBStew]

Maybe the Cubs sales pitch isn't quite as good as we think it is. That's all I'm saying.

Given their ability to close the deal for Tanaka and Sanchez, there's nothing wrong thinking this way.

True, but I feel like the pitch has to be stronger now than it was even then. There are tangible results to point to. Last offseason you couldn't even really make a great pitch for Rizzo being a building block, and now he's one of the best offensive weapons in the NL. Castro having a bounce back year helps. Soler contributing immediately helps. Baez and Alcantara have done enough things you can point to and make a strong case for them being good offensive players next year.

I get the fear, but I don't think the Tanaka/Sanchez comparison is all that relevant. The plan is far less of a fanciful dream than it was at this point last year.

And it's getting better. But there is no way to say "we're gonna be in the playoffs this year" because they finished in last place again. It's easy to say the talent is halfway there and more on the way. We all know it is. If the Dodgers offer the same money or more how the hell do you say no? You better hope Lester and Theo are thick as thieves or it's more reclamation bullshit.

Lost 103 in 2012, 96 in 2013, and 89 in 2014.  Another 7 game improvement in 2015 gives them an 80 win season.  It is not too much of a stretch to think that they could do a handful of games better than 80 wins, and since those could come against division competition it could mean that the Cubs play in October.  How is that for "wait till next year" thinking?

[Chuck to Chuck]

Maybe the Cubs sales pitch isn't quite as good as we think it is. That's all I'm saying.

Given their ability to close the deal for Tanaka and Sanchez, there's nothing wrong thinking this way.

True, but I feel like the pitch has to be stronger now than it was even then. There are tangible results to point to. Last offseason you couldn't even really make a great pitch for Rizzo being a building block, and now he's one of the best offensive weapons in the NL. Castro having a bounce back year helps. Soler contributing immediately helps. Baez and Alcantara have done enough things you can point to and make a strong case for them being good offensive players next year.

I get the fear, but I don't think the Tanaka/Sanchez comparison is all that relevant. The plan is far less of a fanciful dream than it was at this point last year.

Until a big free agent signs a deal offered by a Ricketts owned team, no one has ever done it. Ricketts is still, in many ways, an unknown.

That said, I think that specific unknown goes away about 12 weeks from now.

[Shooter]

Scherzer has pitched 600 fewer innings than Hamels.

Mostly because he's had injuries.

I was actually looking for this online, because I believed it to be true.

Are there are sites that will tell you how many days a guy has spend on the DL in his career/season?

Baseball Prospectus's player pages have their injury history (DL trips as well as other missed time).

[ChuckD]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

I'm not seeing it. There's exactly one time from 2003-2011 where Jepstink traded away young talent for a top tier pitcher -- Schilling. Also, you only can count that if you stretch the definition of "young talent." 

They got Schilling because a) he wanted an extension and b) Arizona was looking to unload salary. 

The Red Sox traded away Mike Goss, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Jorge De La Rosa. Lyon and Fossum were already in the MLB. Goss was thrown in as a PTBNL. That leaves De La Rosa who was the #9 prospect in a thin system -- the Red Sox had a single prospect (Hanley Ramirez) on the 2003 preseason top 100 list.

And even as insanely good as he was in the years immediately preceding that trade, 3 out of the four years he was in Arizona, Schilling's FIP was lower than his ERA. His production had outpaced his value significantly (roughly double(!)).

With Hamels, it's the opposite. He's not out-performed his contract value and his FIP has exceeded his ERA (3 out of the past 4 years). It makes little sense to go after him unless Amaro plans on picking up some of the contract (which he won't). And it doesn't make any sense to trade two top 100 prospects + a perfectly good Dan Vogelbach for him when you can acquire the same level of production through FA -- hell, even pay the same premium -- but not sacrifice the talent.

[Slaky]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

I'm not seeing it. There's exactly one time from 2003-2011 where Jepstink traded away young talent for a top tier pitcher -- Schilling. Also, you only can count that if you stretch the definition of "young talent." 

They got Schilling because a) he wanted an extension and b) Arizona was looking to unload salary. 

The Red Sox traded away Mike Goss, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Jorge De La Rosa. Lyon and Fossum were already in the MLB. Goss was thrown in as a PTBNL. That leaves De La Rosa who was the #9 prospect in a thin system -- the Red Sox had a single prospect (Hanley Ramirez) on the 2003 preseason top 100 list.

And even as insanely good as he was in the years immediately preceding that trade, 3 out of the four years he was in Arizona, Schilling's FIP was lower than his ERA. His production had outpaced his value significantly (roughly double(!)).

With Hamels, it's the opposite. He's not out-performed his contract value and his FIP has exceeded his ERA (3 out of the past 4 years). It makes little sense to go after him unless Amaro plans on picking up some of the contract (which he won't). And it doesn't make any sense to trade two top 100 prospects + a perfectly good Dan Vogelbach for him when you can acquire the same level of production through FA -- hell, even pay the same premium -- but not sacrifice the talent.

That is very thorough and excellent stuff.

I guess that still doesn't alleviate my concern that the Cubs just don't have enough to entice a Lester through FA. Hoping Theo's charm wins him over.