Theo Epstein Sploosh Thread

[Chuck to Chuck]

Not that it matters in the whole scheme of things, but I think I'd rather have Scherzer.

Either would be great. I just figure Lester will cost a bit less and the front office has a history with him, so it seems more likely.

If I had to bet I might bet on Jamaican superstar Justin Masterson unless he has some kind of revival in the playoffs. He'd be cheap, especially if he gets lit up in the NLDS or whenever his next outing might be. And he's got the stuff Bosio loves - except that his fastball is losing steam.

Wouldn't be a terrible fall back option assuming he doesn't demand EJax money.

EDIT: it IS possible they go outside the box and trade for someone, say Cole Hamels. That would be fucking amazing.

I can see both Lester and a trade. Still think one of the short stops goes in a trade.

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Not that it matters in the whole scheme of things, but I think I'd rather have Scherzer.

Either would be great. I just figure Lester will cost a bit less and the front office has a history with him, so it seems more likely.

If I had to bet I might bet on Jamaican superstar Justin Masterson unless he has some kind of revival in the playoffs. He'd be cheap, especially if he gets lit up in the NLDS or whenever his next outing might be. And he's got the stuff Bosio loves - except that his fastball is losing steam.

Wouldn't be a terrible fall back option assuming he doesn't demand EJax money.

EDIT: it IS possible they go outside the box and trade for someone, say Cole Hamels. That would be fucking amazing.

I don't want to see them give up any of their prospects for pitching.  Fuck Cole Hamels and fuck Philadelphia with Larry Owens' dead dick.  Cubs need to go out and buy one of those top pitchers that're available, let some other pissant GM try to work over Ruben Amaro.

If you're talking about acquiring Giancarlo Stanton for some of those prospects (say, Baez, Soler and Almora), I could be persuaded to change my tune, but to hell with trading off these guys for pitchers.

[InternetApex]

Not that it matters in the whole scheme of things, but I think I'd rather have Scherzer.

Either would be great. I just figure Lester will cost a bit less and the front office has a history with him, so it seems more likely.

If I had to bet I might bet on Jamaican superstar Justin Masterson unless he has some kind of revival in the playoffs. He'd be cheap, especially if he gets lit up in the NLDS or whenever his next outing might be. And he's got the stuff Bosio loves - except that his fastball is losing steam.

Wouldn't be a terrible fall back option assuming he doesn't demand EJax money.

EDIT: it IS possible they go outside the box and trade for someone, say Cole Hamels. That would be fucking amazing.

I can see both Lester and a trade. Still think one of the short stops goes in a trade.

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

No.

[Eli]

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

Same. I don't think the Phillies would though.

[InternetApex]

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

Same. I don't think the Phillies would though.

You'd give up three prospects, one of them elite to roll the dice on Hamels' elbow, shoulder, back not exploding? Don't.

[ChuckD]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching. Masterson fits the mold of getting a discount on a guy who's been a bit unlucky.

Masterson ranks third in terms of ERA-xFIP and fifth in ERA-FIP (right below Jacob Turner -- and EJax, for that matter). Hamels ranks 17th/16th from last among qualifiers.

Name	W	L	ERA	IP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	BABIP	GB%	HR/FB	FIP	xFIP	FIPdiff	xFIPdiff
Edwin Jackson	6	15	6.33	140.2	7.87	4	2	0.352	0.394	0.119	4.45	4.12	1.88	2.21
Jacob Turner	6	11	6.13	113	5.65	2.6	2.1	0.354	0.491	0.103	4.16	4.05	1.97	2.08
Justin Masterson	7	9	5.88	128.2	8.11	4.8	1.7	0.339	0.582	0.146	4.5	4.08	1.38	1.8
Trevor Cahill	3	12	5.61	110.2	8.54	4.5	1.9	0.35	0.485	0.101	3.89	3.83	1.72	1.78
Josh Tomlin	6	9	4.76	104	8.13	1.2	6.7	0.32	0.375	0.153	4.01	3.16	0.75	1.6
Ricky Nolasco	6	12	5.38	159	6.51	2.2	3	0.351	0.418	0.116	4.3	3.97	1.08	1.41
Clay Buchholz	8	11	5.34	170.1	6.97	2.9	2.4	0.315	0.466	0.092	4.01	4.04	1.33	1.3
Brandon McCarthy	10	15	4.05	200	7.88	1.5	5.3	0.328	0.526	0.163	3.55	2.87	0.5	1.18
Tim Lincecum	12	9	4.74	155.2	7.75	3.6	2.1	0.299	0.473	0.139	4.31	3.81	0.43	0.93
Mike Minor	6	12	4.77	145.1	7.43	2.7	2.7	0.323	0.406	0.129	4.39	3.9	0.38	0.87

[PenFoe]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching. Masterson fits the mold of getting a discount on a guy who's been a bit unlucky.

Masterson ranks third in terms of ERA-xFIP and fifth in ERA-FIP (right below Jacob Turner -- and EJax, for that matter). Hamels ranks 17th/16th from last among qualifiers.

Name	W	L	ERA	IP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	BABIP	GB%	HR/FB	FIP	xFIP	FIPdiff	xFIPdiff
Edwin Jackson	6	15	6.33	140.2	7.87	4	2	0.352	0.394	0.119	4.45	4.12	1.88	2.21
Jacob Turner	6	11	6.13	113	5.65	2.6	2.1	0.354	0.491	0.103	4.16	4.05	1.97	2.08
Justin Masterson	7	9	5.88	128.2	8.11	4.8	1.7	0.339	0.582	0.146	4.5	4.08	1.38	1.8
Trevor Cahill	3	12	5.61	110.2	8.54	4.5	1.9	0.35	0.485	0.101	3.89	3.83	1.72	1.78
Josh Tomlin	6	9	4.76	104	8.13	1.2	6.7	0.32	0.375	0.153	4.01	3.16	0.75	1.6
Ricky Nolasco	6	12	5.38	159	6.51	2.2	3	0.351	0.418	0.116	4.3	3.97	1.08	1.41
Clay Buchholz	8	11	5.34	170.1	6.97	2.9	2.4	0.315	0.466	0.092	4.01	4.04	1.33	1.3
Brandon McCarthy	10	15	4.05	200	7.88	1.5	5.3	0.328	0.526	0.163	3.55	2.87	0.5	1.18
Tim Lincecum	12	9	4.74	155.2	7.75	3.6	2.1	0.299	0.473	0.139	4.31	3.81	0.43	0.93
Mike Minor	6	12	4.77	145.1	7.43	2.7	2.7	0.323	0.406	0.129	4.39	3.9	0.38	0.87

I'm not sure what all that statfaggotry is, but all I see is a list of guys who suck and I don't want on the Cubs.

I'll happily go with Masterson on some discounted deal, knowing he's a bit of a project with a ton of upside, but I'm still hoping he's not the ace they're getting.

[ChuckD]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching. Masterson fits the mold of getting a discount on a guy who's been a bit unlucky.

Masterson ranks third in terms of ERA-xFIP and fifth in ERA-FIP (right below Jacob Turner -- and EJax, for that matter). Hamels ranks 17th/16th from last among qualifiers.

Name	W	L	ERA	IP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	BABIP	GB%	HR/FB	FIP	xFIP	FIPdiff	xFIPdiff
Edwin Jackson	6	15	6.33	140.2	7.87	4	2	0.352	0.394	0.119	4.45	4.12	1.88	2.21
Jacob Turner	6	11	6.13	113	5.65	2.6	2.1	0.354	0.491	0.103	4.16	4.05	1.97	2.08
Justin Masterson	7	9	5.88	128.2	8.11	4.8	1.7	0.339	0.582	0.146	4.5	4.08	1.38	1.8
Trevor Cahill	3	12	5.61	110.2	8.54	4.5	1.9	0.35	0.485	0.101	3.89	3.83	1.72	1.78
Josh Tomlin	6	9	4.76	104	8.13	1.2	6.7	0.32	0.375	0.153	4.01	3.16	0.75	1.6
Ricky Nolasco	6	12	5.38	159	6.51	2.2	3	0.351	0.418	0.116	4.3	3.97	1.08	1.41
Clay Buchholz	8	11	5.34	170.1	6.97	2.9	2.4	0.315	0.466	0.092	4.01	4.04	1.33	1.3
Brandon McCarthy	10	15	4.05	200	7.88	1.5	5.3	0.328	0.526	0.163	3.55	2.87	0.5	1.18
Tim Lincecum	12	9	4.74	155.2	7.75	3.6	2.1	0.299	0.473	0.139	4.31	3.81	0.43	0.93
Mike Minor	6	12	4.77	145.1	7.43	2.7	2.7	0.323	0.406	0.129	4.39	3.9	0.38	0.87

I'm not sure what all that statfaggotry is, but all I see is a list of guys who suck and I don't want on the Cubs.

I'll happily go with Masterson on some discounted deal, knowing he's a bit of a project with a ton of upside, but I'm still hoping he's not the ace they're getting.

I'd rather they not go after Masterson or Hamels, but I'm saying that if it comes down to the two of them, pursuing Masterson is more in line with what they've done. If they're going to break the bank on a guy, I don't see why they'd do it for Hamels.

Regarding the rest of the list, Tomlin or McCarthy would be sploogeworthy. Everyone else would be pretty meh.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching. Masterson fits the mold of getting a discount on a guy who's been a bit unlucky.

Masterson ranks third in terms of ERA-xFIP and fifth in ERA-FIP (right below Jacob Turner -- and EJax, for that matter). Hamels ranks 17th/16th from last among qualifiers.

Name	W	L	ERA	IP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	BABIP	GB%	HR/FB	FIP	xFIP	FIPdiff	xFIPdiff
Edwin Jackson	6	15	6.33	140.2	7.87	4	2	0.352	0.394	0.119	4.45	4.12	1.88	2.21
Jacob Turner	6	11	6.13	113	5.65	2.6	2.1	0.354	0.491	0.103	4.16	4.05	1.97	2.08
Justin Masterson	7	9	5.88	128.2	8.11	4.8	1.7	0.339	0.582	0.146	4.5	4.08	1.38	1.8
Trevor Cahill	3	12	5.61	110.2	8.54	4.5	1.9	0.35	0.485	0.101	3.89	3.83	1.72	1.78
Josh Tomlin	6	9	4.76	104	8.13	1.2	6.7	0.32	0.375	0.153	4.01	3.16	0.75	1.6
Ricky Nolasco	6	12	5.38	159	6.51	2.2	3	0.351	0.418	0.116	4.3	3.97	1.08	1.41
Clay Buchholz	8	11	5.34	170.1	6.97	2.9	2.4	0.315	0.466	0.092	4.01	4.04	1.33	1.3
Brandon McCarthy	10	15	4.05	200	7.88	1.5	5.3	0.328	0.526	0.163	3.55	2.87	0.5	1.18
Tim Lincecum	12	9	4.74	155.2	7.75	3.6	2.1	0.299	0.473	0.139	4.31	3.81	0.43	0.93
Mike Minor	6	12	4.77	145.1	7.43	2.7	2.7	0.323	0.406	0.129	4.39	3.9	0.38	0.87

I'm not sure what all that statfaggotry is, but all I see is a list of guys who suck and I don't want on the Cubs.

I'll happily go with Masterson on some discounted deal, knowing he's a bit of a project with a ton of upside, but I'm still hoping he's not the ace they're getting.

THIS.

I'm pretty confident they'll get one of Lester, Scherzer and Shields.  I would like to see them get another pitcher who might slot more into 2-3 and if Masterson fits the bill, great.  Arrietta as a 2/3 and Hendricks and Wood as a 3/4 or 4/5 would be doable provided they got one of the Big 3 and a Masterson-type.

Just leave the damn prospects alone for now.  I don't think the value for Baez is going to go down if they hold on to him (defensively, he looks legit, his power's unquestioned and I'm pretty confident his value will continue to maintain even if he strikes out a ton next year...and though I think he will I don't think he'll whiff at quite the same rate as he did this year).   I see no reason to deal any of these guys this offseason unless, like I said, it's to rope in a legit blue-chip offensive player like a Stanton.  Go to the store and buy the pitching.

[Eli]

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

Same. I don't think the Phillies would though.

You'd give up three prospects, one of them elite to roll the dice on Hamels' elbow, shoulder, back not exploding? Don't.

Vogelbach is total flotsam to the Cubs. Edwards is probably a future reliever (albeit likely a very good one). And I would miss Baez, but Hamels is still very good (and has been very durable, despite some injury questions) and basically the same age as Lester and Scherzer. What's left on his deal is a good value and shouldn't be prohibitive given how low the Cubs' payroll obligations are in the next few years.

I guess my willingness sort of depends on if they can sign Lester or Scherzer first. If they can get one of those guys, a Hamels trade becomes a go-for-it move and gives them a top three of Lester/Scherzer, Hamels and Arrieta. That makes them immediate contenders.

It's a risk, but the Cubs are going to have to take a risk at some point.

[InternetApex]

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

Same. I don't think the Phillies would though.

You'd give up three prospects, one of them elite to roll the dice on Hamels' elbow, shoulder, back not exploding? Don't.

Vogelbach is total flotsam to the Cubs. Edwards is probably a future reliever (albeit likely a very good one). And I would miss Baez, but Hamels is still very good (and has been very durable, despite some injury questions) and basically the same age as Lester and Scherzer. What's left on his deal is a good value and shouldn't be prohibitive given how low the Cubs' payroll obligations are in the next few years.

I guess my willingness sort of depends on if they can sign Lester or Scherzer first. If they can get one of those guys, a Hamels trade becomes a go-for-it move and gives them a top three of Lester/Scherzer, Hamels and Arrieta. That makes them immediate contenders.

It's a risk, but the Cubs are going to have to take a risk at some point.

Paying for past performance is one thing I don't think Jepstink fancies. Paying in money AND assets for a guy who is bound to regress just seems extreme. A risk worth taking would involve throwing Fuck You Money at Scherzer/Lester/Shields/Price. You don't have to be risky AND stupid.

[PenFoe]

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

Same. I don't think the Phillies would though.

You'd give up three prospects, one of them elite to roll the dice on Hamels' elbow, shoulder, back not exploding? Don't.

Vogelbach is total flotsam to the Cubs. Edwards is probably a future reliever (albeit likely a very good one). And I would miss Baez, but Hamels is still very good (and has been very durable, despite some injury questions) and basically the same age as Lester and Scherzer. What's left on his deal is a good value and shouldn't be prohibitive given how low the Cubs' payroll obligations are in the next few years.

I guess my willingness sort of depends on if they can sign Lester or Scherzer first. If they can get one of those guys, a Hamels trade becomes a go-for-it move and gives them a top three of Lester/Scherzer, Hamels and Arrieta. That makes them immediate contenders.

It's a risk, but the Cubs are going to have to take a risk at some point.

As much as I irrationally love CJ Edwards for no reason, that's a steal for the Cubs.

I'd still want them to throw money at Lester and Scherzer first, before trading anyone (as Huey says) but if that's the deal for Hamels? Yeah, I'm cool.

[PenFoe]

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

Same. I don't think the Phillies would though.

You'd give up three prospects, one of them elite to roll the dice on Hamels' elbow, shoulder, back not exploding? Don't.

Vogelbach is total flotsam to the Cubs. Edwards is probably a future reliever (albeit likely a very good one). And I would miss Baez, but Hamels is still very good (and has been very durable, despite some injury questions) and basically the same age as Lester and Scherzer. What's left on his deal is a good value and shouldn't be prohibitive given how low the Cubs' payroll obligations are in the next few years.

I guess my willingness sort of depends on if they can sign Lester or Scherzer first. If they can get one of those guys, a Hamels trade becomes a go-for-it move and gives them a top three of Lester/Scherzer, Hamels and Arrieta. That makes them immediate contenders.

It's a risk, but the Cubs are going to have to take a risk at some point.

Paying for past performance is one thing I don't think Jepstink fancies. Paying in money AND assets for a guy who is bound to regress just seems extreme. A risk worth taking would involve throwing Fuck You Money at Scherzer/Lester/Shields/Price. You don't have to be risky AND stupid.

We're all going to regress, but I don't get the specific concern over Hamels.

Dude is consistently fantastic, he's *only* 30, and he's got a pretty realistic contract remaining. 

Other than him seeming like a complete douche, I'll take him in a heartbeat. 

[CBStew]

One of the best moves that the Cubs could make is to simply dump Jackson.  Classic example of addition by subtraction.

[InternetApex]

Yesterday, Arguello threw out Baez, Vogelbach, CJ Edwards for Hamels.  I'd do that.

Same. I don't think the Phillies would though.

You'd give up three prospects, one of them elite to roll the dice on Hamels' elbow, shoulder, back not exploding? Don't.

Vogelbach is total flotsam to the Cubs. Edwards is probably a future reliever (albeit likely a very good one). And I would miss Baez, but Hamels is still very good (and has been very durable, despite some injury questions) and basically the same age as Lester and Scherzer. What's left on his deal is a good value and shouldn't be prohibitive given how low the Cubs' payroll obligations are in the next few years.

I guess my willingness sort of depends on if they can sign Lester or Scherzer first. If they can get one of those guys, a Hamels trade becomes a go-for-it move and gives them a top three of Lester/Scherzer, Hamels and Arrieta. That makes them immediate contenders.

It's a risk, but the Cubs are going to have to take a risk at some point.

Paying for past performance is one thing I don't think Jepstink fancies. Paying in money AND assets for a guy who is bound to regress just seems extreme. A risk worth taking would involve throwing Fuck You Money at Scherzer/Lester/Shields/Price. You don't have to be risky AND stupid.

We're all going to regress, but I don't get the specific concern over Hamels.


Dude is consistently fantastic, he's *only* 30, and he's got a pretty realistic contract remaining. 

Other than him seeming like a complete douche, I'll take him in a heartbeat. 

My concern is not specific to Hamels but to any pitcher with thousands of innings on his arm. I don't believe in trading top prospects for that. If you sign one as a free agent and he gets hurt, well, fuck but it's just money. Giving away that money AND assets isn't something I'm interested in. There was talk about trading for young arms like the Mets have seemingly stockpiled. That I'd think about.