Theo Epstein Sploosh Thread

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

I'm not seeing it. There's exactly one time from 2003-2011 where Jepstink traded away young talent for a top tier pitcher -- Schilling. Also, you only can count that if you stretch the definition of "young talent." 

They got Schilling because a) he wanted an extension and b) Arizona was looking to unload salary. 

The Red Sox traded away Mike Goss, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Jorge De La Rosa. Lyon and Fossum were already in the MLB. Goss was thrown in as a PTBNL. That leaves De La Rosa who was the #9 prospect in a thin system -- the Red Sox had a single prospect (Hanley Ramirez) on the 2003 preseason top 100 list.

And even as insanely good as he was in the years immediately preceding that trade, 3 out of the four years he was in Arizona, Schilling's FIP was lower than his ERA. His production had outpaced his value significantly (roughly double(!)).

With Hamels, it's the opposite. He's not out-performed his contract value and his FIP has exceeded his ERA (3 out of the past 4 years). It makes little sense to go after him unless Amaro plans on picking up some of the contract (which he won't). And it doesn't make any sense to trade two top 100 prospects + a perfectly good Dan Vogelbach for him when you can acquire the same level of production through FA -- hell, even pay the same premium -- but not sacrifice the talent.

That is very thorough and excellent stuff.

I guess that still doesn't alleviate my concern that the Cubs just don't have enough to entice a Lester through FA. Hoping Theo's charm wins him over.

Me, personally, I'm equally fine with Scherzer and, to a very slightly lesser degree, Shields.

Cubs will get 1 of those 3, preferably 1 of the first 2.  Are you saying it doesn't matter if they don't get Lester?

[ChuckD]

Going after Hamels would be counter to the strategy Jepstink has shown thus far w/re to pitching.

They haven't been trying to win thus far.

The strategery of the last 3 years is not what the strategery will be going forward.

Going after Hamels by trading young talent would be entirely consistent with the strategy Jepstink have shown when they were contenders with Boston.

I was waiting to read this comment and it came from fucking Chuck. You're all disappointments.

I'm not seeing it. There's exactly one time from 2003-2011 where Jepstink traded away young talent for a top tier pitcher -- Schilling. Also, you only can count that if you stretch the definition of "young talent." 

They got Schilling because a) he wanted an extension and b) Arizona was looking to unload salary. 

The Red Sox traded away Mike Goss, Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Jorge De La Rosa. Lyon and Fossum were already in the MLB. Goss was thrown in as a PTBNL. That leaves De La Rosa who was the #9 prospect in a thin system -- the Red Sox had a single prospect (Hanley Ramirez) on the 2003 preseason top 100 list.

And even as insanely good as he was in the years immediately preceding that trade, 3 out of the four years he was in Arizona, Schilling's FIP was lower than his ERA. His production had outpaced his value significantly (roughly double(!)).

With Hamels, it's the opposite. He's not out-performed his contract value and his FIP has exceeded his ERA (3 out of the past 4 years). It makes little sense to go after him unless Amaro plans on picking up some of the contract (which he won't). And it doesn't make any sense to trade two top 100 prospects + a perfectly good Dan Vogelbach for him when you can acquire the same level of production through FA -- hell, even pay the same premium -- but not sacrifice the talent.

That is very thorough and excellent stuff.

I guess that still doesn't alleviate my concern that the Cubs just don't have enough to entice a Lester through FA. Hoping Theo's charm wins him over.

It just dawned on me that I overlooked one other trade. Jepstink did trade for Beckett (and Lowell) in 2006 -- and gave up some elite prospects in Hanley and Anibal Sanchez. So perhaps that's the trade that Chuck is considering as the "trend."

There again though, Beckett's FIP was pretty well below his ERA from 2002-2005 indicating he was undervalued; his production had outpaced his contract (he was still young and cheap); and was on the right side of the aging curve. They signed him to an advantageous contract and got a 5 WAR/yr pitcher who was just entering the prime of his career for well-below the market rate.

[Eli]

With Hamels, it's the opposite. He's not out-performed his contract value and his FIP has exceeded his ERA (3 out of the past 4 years).

It's not like there's a massive difference between his FIP and his ERA. Lots of guys with low ERAs consistently pitch better than their FIP indicates (Clayton Kershaw, every year of his career; Chris Sale, every year of his career). Plus, those last four FIPs have been the best four of his career. His fastball velocity is actually trending up (90.9 to 91.3 to 92.1). Other than the fact that he's a pitcher and all pitchers are terrifying, I don't see any signs he's due for an immediate decline.

As for him outperforming his contract, this gets into that surplus value conversation again. It's hard for highly-paid players to be efficient. Hamels has underperformed by about $1-3 million per season. Who gives a shit? You need efficiency at various roster spots to build a good team, but the Cubs have already plenty of that built in with Rizzo and Castro's indentured servant contracts, plus the young, cost-controlled guys coming up. They're in a unique position to absorb several still-good but slightly-inefficient players. At this point, I'd rather the Cubs pay a guy $22 million and only get $19 million of Dave Cameron's Proprietary Player Value than pay someone $2 million and get $5 million of said value.

It makes little sense to go after him unless Amaro plans on picking up some of the contract (which he won't). And it doesn't make any sense to trade two top 100 prospects + a perfectly good Dan Vogelbach for him when you can acquire the same level of production through FA -- hell, even pay the same premium -- but not sacrifice the talent.

Trading for Hamels isn't my ideal Plan A. But like Slaky said, if you trade for him, he's yours. Ideally they'd just open the wallet and outbid everyone else for Lester and Scherzer (I think I'd rather trade for Hamels than sign Shields) and be done with it. But that's probably not going to happen.

[Slaky]

With Hamels, it's the opposite. He's not out-performed his contract value and his FIP has exceeded his ERA (3 out of the past 4 years).

It's not like there's a massive difference between his FIP and his ERA. Lots of guys with low ERAs consistently pitch better than their FIP indicates (Clayton Kershaw, every year of his career; Chris Sale, every year of his career). Plus, those last four FIPs have been the best four of his career. His fastball velocity is actually trending up (90.9 to 91.3 to 92.1). Other than the fact that he's a pitcher and all pitchers are terrifying, I don't see any signs he's due for an immediate decline.

As for him outperforming his contract, this gets into that surplus value conversation again. It's hard for highly-paid players to be efficient. Hamels has underperformed by about $1-3 million per season. Who gives a shit? You need efficiency at various roster spots to build a good team, but the Cubs have already plenty of that built in with Rizzo and Castro's indentured servant contracts, plus the young, cost-controlled guys coming up. They're in a unique position to absorb several still-good but slightly-inefficient players. At this point, I'd rather the Cubs pay a guy $22 million and only get $19 million of Dave Cameron's Proprietary Player Value than pay someone $2 million and get $5 million of said value.

It makes little sense to go after him unless Amaro plans on picking up some of the contract (which he won't). And it doesn't make any sense to trade two top 100 prospects + a perfectly good Dan Vogelbach for him when you can acquire the same level of production through FA -- hell, even pay the same premium -- but not sacrifice the talent.

Trading for Hamels isn't my ideal Plan A. But like Slaky said, if you trade for him, he's yours. Ideally they'd just open the wallet and outbid everyone else for Lester and Scherzer (I think I'd rather trade for Hamels than sign Shields) and be done with it. But that's probably not going to happen.

And with Mike continually bringing up Scherzer, based on what the Cubs insiders have been saying on Twitter: the Cubs won't be pursuing him at all. That's the word. It might not be the truth but that's just what I've read.

[ChuckD]

With Hamels, it's the opposite. He's not out-performed his contract value and his FIP has exceeded his ERA (3 out of the past 4 years).

It's not like there's a massive difference between his FIP and his ERA. Lots of guys with low ERAs consistently pitch better than their FIP indicates (Clayton Kershaw, every year of his career; Chris Sale, every year of his career). Plus, those last four FIPs have been the best four of his career. His fastball velocity is actually trending up (90.9 to 91.3 to 92.1). Other than the fact that he's a pitcher and all pitchers are terrifying, I don't see any signs he's due for an immediate decline.

As for him outperforming his contract, this gets into that surplus value conversation again. It's hard for highly-paid players to be efficient. Hamels has underperformed by about $1-3 million per season. Who gives a shit? You need efficiency at various roster spots to build a good team, but the Cubs have already plenty of that built in with Rizzo and Castro's indentured servant contracts, plus the young, cost-controlled guys coming up. They're in a unique position to absorb several still-good but slightly-inefficient players. At this point, I'd rather the Cubs pay a guy $22 million and only get $19 million of Dave Cameron's Proprietary Player Value than pay someone $2 million and get $5 million of said value.

It makes little sense to go after him unless Amaro plans on picking up some of the contract (which he won't). And it doesn't make any sense to trade two top 100 prospects + a perfectly good Dan Vogelbach for him when you can acquire the same level of production through FA -- hell, even pay the same premium -- but not sacrifice the talent.

Trading for Hamels isn't my ideal Plan A. But like Slaky said, if you trade for him, he's yours. Ideally they'd just open the wallet and outbid everyone else for Lester and Scherzer (I think I'd rather trade for Hamels than sign Shields) and be done with it. But that's probably not going to happen.

This: "Lots of guys with low ERAs consistently pitch better than their FIP indicates" is a great point. Hamels' ERA is consistently low so he could be doing something that is under- or even un-valued by FIP. And you're right that the differences over the past few years haven't been massive in terms of $.  

My main point initially was that he's not the kind of pitcher (in terms of peripherals) that Jepstink has pursued. I don't think it's the end of the world if they trade for Hamels, just seems a bit abnormal. To pay him $22M a year AND give up the prospects that Arguello is putting forward seems a bit much. My main concern is that based on the average course of a pitcher's career, he's due for a decline and he has a lot of miles on his arm. Then again, maybe they're "highway" miles in the sense that he gets by primarily on FB/CH more than movement.

Anyway, these are good problems to have.

[Eli]

This: "Lots of guys with low ERAs consistently pitch better than their FIP indicates" is a great point. Hamels' ERA is consistently low so he could be doing something that is under- or even un-valued by FIP. And you're right that the differences over the past few years haven't been massive in terms of $.

I think FIP is useful for finding undervalued guys, but it doesn't seem to do justice to elite pitchers. I'm not smart enough to know why that is. Probably something about guys who are good at getting weak contact? I think Matt Cain was the first guy who consistently did this, and it was always interesting to try and figure out why (though no one did).

My main point initially was that he's not the kind of pitcher (in terms of peripherals) that Jepstink has pursued. I don't think it's the end of the world if they trade for Hamels, just seems a bit abnormal. To pay him $22M a year AND give up the prospects that Arguello is putting forward seems a bit much. My main concern is that based on the average course of a pitcher's career, he's due for a decline and he has a lot of miles on his arm. Then again, maybe they're "highway" miles in the sense that he gets by primarily on FB/CH more than movement.

I agree that it's unlikely and I'd be surprised if they traded for him. I'm mostly just saying that I'd be OK with it if they did, and I may even prefer it over some of the non-Lester/Scherzer options.

[ChuckD]

I think FIP is useful for finding undervalued guys, but it doesn't seem to do justice to elite pitchers. I'm not smart enough to know why that is. Probably something about guys who are good at getting weak contact? I think Matt Cain was the first guy who consistently did this, and it was always interesting to try and figure out why (though no one did).

Agreed, it's definitely not cut-and-dry around the tails of the distribution -- the really elite guys and the borderline replacement players. Once exit velocity/angle data becomes available at every stadium (and hopefully freely available to the sabermetric community), it should allow for the development of better ERA estimators that don't rely on a simple categorical LD/GB/FB variable for batted ball type.

[InternetApex]

I think FIP is useful for finding undervalued guys, but it doesn't seem to do justice to elite pitchers. I'm not smart enough to know why that is. Probably something about guys who are good at getting weak contact? I think Matt Cain was the first guy who consistently did this, and it was always interesting to try and figure out why (though no one did).

Agreed, it's definitely not cut-and-dry around the tails of the distribution -- the really elite guys and the borderline replacement players. Once exit velocity/angle data becomes available at every stadium (and hopefully freely available to the sabermetric community), it should allow for the development of better ERA estimators that don't rely on a simple categorical LD/GB/FB variable for batted ball type.

Elite pitchers are ahead in the count, they force the batter to swing at their pitch, they fool people. All of these things lead to weak contact. Also, if you run the ball effectively, you can set up the play action.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I think FIP is useful for finding undervalued guys, but it doesn't seem to do justice to elite pitchers. I'm not smart enough to know why that is. Probably something about guys who are good at getting weak contact? I think Matt Cain was the first guy who consistently did this, and it was always interesting to try and figure out why (though no one did).

Agreed, it's definitely not cut-and-dry around the tails of the distribution -- the really elite guys and the borderline replacement players. Once exit velocity/angle data becomes available at every stadium (and hopefully freely available to the sabermetric community), it should allow for the development of better ERA estimators that don't rely on a simple categorical LD/GB/FB variable for batted ball type.

Elite pitchers are ahead in the count, they force the batter to swing at their pitch, they fool people. All of these things lead to weak contact. Also, if you run the ball effectively, you can set up the play action.

I laffed.

[Eli]

What free agent position players would you like the Cubs to pursue, Desipiots?

Yasmany Tomas.

[Quality Start Machine]

the one thing with Lester will be that since he was traded during the season, there's no loss in draft picks if you sign him.

So the Cubs will get into a bidding war with the Yankees. How high does anyone think the Rickettses will let Jepstink go?

[Tonker]

What free agent position players would you like the Cubs to pursue, Desipiots?

Yasmany Tomas.

I'm torn between Jeff Francouer, Donny Murphy, or Ty Wiggington.  And they need another shortstop.

[R-V]

This: "Lots of guys with low ERAs consistently pitch better than their FIP indicates" is a great point. Hamels' ERA is consistently low so he could be doing something that is under- or even un-valued by FIP. And you're right that the differences over the past few years haven't been massive in terms of $.

I think FIP is useful for finding undervalued guys, but it doesn't seem to do justice to elite pitchers. I'm not smart enough to know why that is. Probably something about guys who are good at getting weak contact? I think Matt Cain was the first guy who consistently did this, and it was always interesting to try and figure out why (though no one did).

My main point initially was that he's not the kind of pitcher (in terms of peripherals) that Jepstink has pursued. I don't think it's the end of the world if they trade for Hamels, just seems a bit abnormal. To pay him $22M a year AND give up the prospects that Arguello is putting forward seems a bit much. My main concern is that based on the average course of a pitcher's career, he's due for a decline and he has a lot of miles on his arm. Then again, maybe they're "highway" miles in the sense that he gets by primarily on FB/CH more than movement.

I agree that it's unlikely and I'd be surprised if they traded for him. I'm mostly just saying that I'd be OK with it if they did, and I may even prefer it over some of the non-Lester/Scherzer options.

Some more smoke on the Hamels front.

According to Howard Eskin of FOX Sports, the Phillies are about to undergo a major facelift both on-and-off the field.

The report is a doozy, and covers both a change in majority ownership, and the removal of two players who were perhaps the biggest factor in the team winning the World Series in 2008.

First baseman Ryan Howard will almost "certainly" not be back with the team, and the Phillies are willing to pay almost all of the $61 million remaining on his contract to get him out.

The Phillies will look into trading pitcher Cole Hamels for younger players. The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs both are expected to make a hard push for Hamels.

[CubFaninHydePark]

Liriano should get some consideration.  When he hasn't been hurt the last two seasons, he's been very good to dominant.  He's proven that he can win against the division.

Of course, as soon as he puts a Cubs uniform on, he'll remain a Cubs killer, but isn't that how it almost always goes?

[Eli]

PITTSBURGH PIRATE Liriano should get some consideration.  When he hasn't been hurt the last two seasons, he's been very good to dominant.  He's proven that he can win against the division.

You'd.

Just kidding. He'd be a nice pickup.