Reasonable Trade Discussion

[Bort]

Damn it. My thinly veiled excuse for getting rid of him failed. FIREBARN it is.

You were doing the Lord's work.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-can-we-expect-from-c-j-edwards/

Right now, the curveball is probably his best pitch, as it's a plus offering at times. It's not quite consistently there yet, as he'll get around the pitch on occasion, but the pitch projects to round into consistently above-average form as Edwards develops. It should be effective to both lefties and his fellow righthanders and allow him to post solid strikeout rates.

Edwards' fastball also comes with some zip, though it doesn't project to be as good as the curve, for a few reasons. First, it's a mostly flat pitch. It occasionally has some cutting life to it, but it's usually on the straight side, and I've heard multiple scouts express concern over him actually developing a problem with the home run ball as a result, his incredible homerless streak (playing in a fairly hitter-friendly park) notwitstanding. Edwards doesn't help his case in this area by having a pronounced back-leg collapse in his delivery, costing him plane on the pitch. Finally, his frail 155-pound build has led to issues with maintaining his velocity–he'll usually touch 95 mph in the first inning but never hit it again, and often is in soft-tosser territory by the sixth...

...

What this means is that we can expect significant regression in both Edwards' strikeout and home run rates as he ascends through the minors. Of course, his K-rate is 32.4% and his homer rate is, well, zero, so he's got a lot of room to regress before he's anything approaching mediocre. It should be noted that while Edwards' delivery lacks plane, he does explode toward the plate nicely and has good efficiency and balance that should assist him in developing good fastball command, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his walk rate actually shrink a bit once hitters stop chasing his pitches and force him to be in the zone more.

...

Edwards' third offering is a changeup with some sink and fade that comes in a bit too hard at times, but has some promise and should develop into an average pitch. He does a nice job keeping both the curve and the change down in the zone, which helps make up for his fastball's lack of sink and gives him a solid 46.8% groundball rate this year, including 52.4% against lefties...

So what are we left with, here? Edwards should have an average fastball and changeup and a plus curveball–he should have solid command, get a reasonable number of strikeouts, and be competent but unexceptional in limiting over-the-fence damage. That sounds like a decent third starter or good fourth starter, which is the almost universal projection I get from talking to others who have seen him this season. I have not heard a single person suggest he has a higher ceiling than that; conversely, I haven't heard anyone be so down on him as to project him as a fifth starter, reliever, or outright bust.

As such, Edwards is a good prospect, but not a great one–I'd expect him to turn in MLB numbers akin to those of Jose Quintana this year (7.07 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 44.8% GB%, 3.61 ERA, 3.86 FIP).

[CBStew]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-can-we-expect-from-c-j-edwards/

Right now, the curveball is probably his best pitch, as it's a plus offering at times. It's not quite consistently there yet, as he'll get around the pitch on occasion, but the pitch projects to round into consistently above-average form as Edwards develops. It should be effective to both lefties and his fellow righthanders and allow him to post solid strikeout rates.

Edwards' fastball also comes with some zip, though it doesn't project to be as good as the curve, for a few reasons. First, it's a mostly flat pitch. It occasionally has some cutting life to it, but it's usually on the straight side, and I've heard multiple scouts express concern over him actually developing a problem with the home run ball as a result, his incredible homerless streak (playing in a fairly hitter-friendly park) notwitstanding. Edwards doesn't help his case in this area by having a pronounced back-leg collapse in his delivery, costing him plane on the pitch. Finally, his frail 155-pound build has led to issues with maintaining his velocity–he'll usually touch 95 mph in the first inning but never hit it again, and often is in soft-tosser territory by the sixth...

...

What this means is that we can expect significant regression in both Edwards' strikeout and home run rates as he ascends through the minors. Of course, his K-rate is 32.4% and his homer rate is, well, zero, so he's got a lot of room to regress before he's anything approaching mediocre. It should be noted that while Edwards' delivery lacks plane, he does explode toward the plate nicely and has good efficiency and balance that should assist him in developing good fastball command, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his walk rate actually shrink a bit once hitters stop chasing his pitches and force him to be in the zone more.

...

Edwards' third offering is a changeup with some sink and fade that comes in a bit too hard at times, but has some promise and should develop into an average pitch. He does a nice job keeping both the curve and the change down in the zone, which helps make up for his fastball's lack of sink and gives him a solid 46.8% groundball rate this year, including 52.4% against lefties...

So what are we left with, here? Edwards should have an average fastball and changeup and a plus curveball–he should have solid command, get a reasonable number of strikeouts, and be competent but unexceptional in limiting over-the-fence damage. That sounds like a decent third starter or good fourth starter, which is the almost universal projection I get from talking to others who have seen him this season. I have not heard a single person suggest he has a higher ceiling than that; conversely, I haven't heard anyone be so down on him as to project him as a fifth starter, reliever, or outright bust.

As such, Edwards is a good prospect, but not a great one–I'd expect him to turn in MLB numbers akin to those of Jose Quintana this year (7.07 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 44.8% GB%, 3.61 ERA, 3.86 FIP).

I question the accuracy of the stated weight of 155 pounds.  The video of him sure doesn't back that up.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1670089-down-on-the-farm-rangers-pitcher-cj-edwards-turning-heads-for-crawdads

[BH]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-can-we-expect-from-c-j-edwards/

Right now, the curveball is probably his best pitch, as it's a plus offering at times. It's not quite consistently there yet, as he'll get around the pitch on occasion, but the pitch projects to round into consistently above-average form as Edwards develops. It should be effective to both lefties and his fellow righthanders and allow him to post solid strikeout rates.

Edwards' fastball also comes with some zip, though it doesn't project to be as good as the curve, for a few reasons. First, it's a mostly flat pitch. It occasionally has some cutting life to it, but it's usually on the straight side, and I've heard multiple scouts express concern over him actually developing a problem with the home run ball as a result, his incredible homerless streak (playing in a fairly hitter-friendly park) notwitstanding. Edwards doesn't help his case in this area by having a pronounced back-leg collapse in his delivery, costing him plane on the pitch. Finally, his frail 155-pound build has led to issues with maintaining his velocity–he'll usually touch 95 mph in the first inning but never hit it again, and often is in soft-tosser territory by the sixth...

...

What this means is that we can expect significant regression in both Edwards' strikeout and home run rates as he ascends through the minors. Of course, his K-rate is 32.4% and his homer rate is, well, zero, so he's got a lot of room to regress before he's anything approaching mediocre. It should be noted that while Edwards' delivery lacks plane, he does explode toward the plate nicely and has good efficiency and balance that should assist him in developing good fastball command, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his walk rate actually shrink a bit once hitters stop chasing his pitches and force him to be in the zone more.

...

Edwards' third offering is a changeup with some sink and fade that comes in a bit too hard at times, but has some promise and should develop into an average pitch. He does a nice job keeping both the curve and the change down in the zone, which helps make up for his fastball's lack of sink and gives him a solid 46.8% groundball rate this year, including 52.4% against lefties...

So what are we left with, here? Edwards should have an average fastball and changeup and a plus curveball–he should have solid command, get a reasonable number of strikeouts, and be competent but unexceptional in limiting over-the-fence damage. That sounds like a decent third starter or good fourth starter, which is the almost universal projection I get from talking to others who have seen him this season. I have not heard a single person suggest he has a higher ceiling than that; conversely, I haven't heard anyone be so down on him as to project him as a fifth starter, reliever, or outright bust.

As such, Edwards is a good prospect, but not a great one–I'd expect him to turn in MLB numbers akin to those of Jose Quintana this year (7.07 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 44.8% GB%, 3.61 ERA, 3.86 FIP).

I question the accuracy of the stated weight of 155 pounds.  The video of him sure doesn't back that up.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1670089-down-on-the-farm-rangers-pitcher-cj-edwards-turning-heads-for-crawdads

It's amazing how much he looks like Ron Washington.

[Quality Start Machine]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-can-we-expect-from-c-j-edwards/

Right now, the curveball is probably his best pitch, as it's a plus offering at times. It's not quite consistently there yet, as he'll get around the pitch on occasion, but the pitch projects to round into consistently above-average form as Edwards develops. It should be effective to both lefties and his fellow righthanders and allow him to post solid strikeout rates.

Edwards' fastball also comes with some zip, though it doesn't project to be as good as the curve, for a few reasons. First, it's a mostly flat pitch. It occasionally has some cutting life to it, but it's usually on the straight side, and I've heard multiple scouts express concern over him actually developing a problem with the home run ball as a result, his incredible homerless streak (playing in a fairly hitter-friendly park) notwitstanding. Edwards doesn't help his case in this area by having a pronounced back-leg collapse in his delivery, costing him plane on the pitch. Finally, his frail 155-pound build has led to issues with maintaining his velocity–he'll usually touch 95 mph in the first inning but never hit it again, and often is in soft-tosser territory by the sixth...

...

What this means is that we can expect significant regression in both Edwards' strikeout and home run rates as he ascends through the minors. Of course, his K-rate is 32.4% and his homer rate is, well, zero, so he's got a lot of room to regress before he's anything approaching mediocre. It should be noted that while Edwards' delivery lacks plane, he does explode toward the plate nicely and has good efficiency and balance that should assist him in developing good fastball command, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his walk rate actually shrink a bit once hitters stop chasing his pitches and force him to be in the zone more.

...

Edwards' third offering is a changeup with some sink and fade that comes in a bit too hard at times, but has some promise and should develop into an average pitch. He does a nice job keeping both the curve and the change down in the zone, which helps make up for his fastball's lack of sink and gives him a solid 46.8% groundball rate this year, including 52.4% against lefties...

So what are we left with, here? Edwards should have an average fastball and changeup and a plus curveball–he should have solid command, get a reasonable number of strikeouts, and be competent but unexceptional in limiting over-the-fence damage. That sounds like a decent third starter or good fourth starter, which is the almost universal projection I get from talking to others who have seen him this season. I have not heard a single person suggest he has a higher ceiling than that; conversely, I haven't heard anyone be so down on him as to project him as a fifth starter, reliever, or outright bust.

As such, Edwards is a good prospect, but not a great one–I'd expect him to turn in MLB numbers akin to those of Jose Quintana this year (7.07 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 44.8% GB%, 3.61 ERA, 3.86 FIP).

I question the accuracy of the stated weight of 155 pounds.  The video of him sure doesn't back that up.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1670089-down-on-the-farm-rangers-pitcher-cj-edwards-turning-heads-for-crawdads

It's amazing how much he looks like Ron Washington.

Cocaine's a helluva drug.

[Eli]

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-can-we-expect-from-c-j-edwards/

Right now, the curveball is probably his best pitch, as it's a plus offering at times. It's not quite consistently there yet, as he'll get around the pitch on occasion, but the pitch projects to round into consistently above-average form as Edwards develops. It should be effective to both lefties and his fellow righthanders and allow him to post solid strikeout rates.

Edwards' fastball also comes with some zip, though it doesn't project to be as good as the curve, for a few reasons. First, it's a mostly flat pitch. It occasionally has some cutting life to it, but it's usually on the straight side, and I've heard multiple scouts express concern over him actually developing a problem with the home run ball as a result, his incredible homerless streak (playing in a fairly hitter-friendly park) notwitstanding. Edwards doesn't help his case in this area by having a pronounced back-leg collapse in his delivery, costing him plane on the pitch. Finally, his frail 155-pound build has led to issues with maintaining his velocity–he'll usually touch 95 mph in the first inning but never hit it again, and often is in soft-tosser territory by the sixth...

...

What this means is that we can expect significant regression in both Edwards' strikeout and home run rates as he ascends through the minors. Of course, his K-rate is 32.4% and his homer rate is, well, zero, so he's got a lot of room to regress before he's anything approaching mediocre. It should be noted that while Edwards' delivery lacks plane, he does explode toward the plate nicely and has good efficiency and balance that should assist him in developing good fastball command, and I wouldn't be surprised to see his walk rate actually shrink a bit once hitters stop chasing his pitches and force him to be in the zone more.

...

Edwards' third offering is a changeup with some sink and fade that comes in a bit too hard at times, but has some promise and should develop into an average pitch. He does a nice job keeping both the curve and the change down in the zone, which helps make up for his fastball's lack of sink and gives him a solid 46.8% groundball rate this year, including 52.4% against lefties...

So what are we left with, here? Edwards should have an average fastball and changeup and a plus curveball–he should have solid command, get a reasonable number of strikeouts, and be competent but unexceptional in limiting over-the-fence damage. That sounds like a decent third starter or good fourth starter, which is the almost universal projection I get from talking to others who have seen him this season. I have not heard a single person suggest he has a higher ceiling than that; conversely, I haven't heard anyone be so down on him as to project him as a fifth starter, reliever, or outright bust.

As such, Edwards is a good prospect, but not a great one–I'd expect him to turn in MLB numbers akin to those of Jose Quintana this year (7.07 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 44.8% GB%, 3.61 ERA, 3.86 FIP).

That all seems like a pretty level and fair assessment. I do wonder if the scouting community is still catching up to him, considering he was almost universally ignored just a few years ago. His numbers are totally off the charts, so much so that it's hard to try and translate them into major-league equivalents. Basically, I think it's a little weird to say his ceiling is 3/4 starter when he's putting up better numbers than any other pitcher in the minor leagues. There still has to be some chance he turns into a top-of-the-rotation guy, even if it's less likely than some other guys with a more traditional profile.

[Quality Start Machine]

That all seems like a pretty level and fair assessment. I do wonder if the scouting community is still catching up to him, considering he was almost universally ignored just a few years ago. His numbers are totally off the charts, so much so that it's hard to try and translate them into major-league equivalents. Basically, I think it's a little weird to say his ceiling is 3/4 starter when he's putting up better numbers than any other pitcher in the minor leagues. There still has to be some chance he turns into a top-of-the-rotation guy, even if it's less likely than some other guys with a more traditional profile.

Since he's just getting moved up into high-A at this point there are at least two years to level-set his performance to an accurate projection. Not to mention, if leg collapse is what's behind his lack of movement (and could also be behind his lack of stamina), that can be corrected.

And if it turns out that he can really only bring gas for an an inning, that's one less spot in the bullpen to worry about.

[Eli]

That all seems like a pretty level and fair assessment. I do wonder if the scouting community is still catching up to him, considering he was almost universally ignored just a few years ago. His numbers are totally off the charts, so much so that it's hard to try and translate them into major-league equivalents. Basically, I think it's a little weird to say his ceiling is 3/4 starter when he's putting up better numbers than any other pitcher in the minor leagues. There still has to be some chance he turns into a top-of-the-rotation guy, even if it's less likely than some other guys with a more traditional profile.

Since he's just getting moved up into high-A at this point there are at least two years to level-set his performance to an accurate projection. Not to mention, if leg collapse is what's behind his lack of movement (and could also be behind his lack of stamina), that can be corrected.

And if it turns out that he can really only bring gas for an an inning, that's one less spot in the bullpen to worry about.

I did wonder if the leg collapse is a part of him driving off the rubber to generate power. At his size, he's not really going to be able to stand tall and gain leverage that way.

Agreed on the possibility of him possibly being a lights-out bullpen guy, but that'd probably be a little disappointing.

[Quality Start Machine]

That all seems like a pretty level and fair assessment. I do wonder if the scouting community is still catching up to him, considering he was almost universally ignored just a few years ago. His numbers are totally off the charts, so much so that it's hard to try and translate them into major-league equivalents. Basically, I think it's a little weird to say his ceiling is 3/4 starter when he's putting up better numbers than any other pitcher in the minor leagues. There still has to be some chance he turns into a top-of-the-rotation guy, even if it's less likely than some other guys with a more traditional profile.

Since he's just getting moved up into high-A at this point there are at least two years to level-set his performance to an accurate projection. Not to mention, if leg collapse is what's behind his lack of movement (and could also be behind his lack of stamina), that can be corrected.

And if it turns out that he can really only bring gas for an an inning, that's one less spot in the bullpen to worry about.

I did wonder if the leg collapse is a part of him driving off the rubber to generate power. At his size, he's not really going to be able to stand tall and gain leverage that way.

Agreed on the possibility of him possibly being a lights-out bullpen guy, but that'd probably be a little disappointing.

At some point he will need to get into a weight room and build his legs. That's how he can generate drive. But I'm also operating under the assumption that somebody who can write up this detailed a scouting report knows collapsing the leg (where the body moves more vertically) from driving (where the body moves forward).

[Richard Chuggar]

That all seems like a pretty level and fair assessment. I do wonder if the scouting community is still catching up to him, considering he was almost universally ignored just a few years ago. His numbers are totally off the charts, so much so that it's hard to try and translate them into major-league equivalents. Basically, I think it's a little weird to say his ceiling is 3/4 starter when he's putting up better numbers than any other pitcher in the minor leagues. There still has to be some chance he turns into a top-of-the-rotation guy, even if it's less likely than some other guys with a more traditional profile.

Since he's just getting moved up into high-A at this point there are at least two years to level-set his performance to an accurate projection. Not to mention, if leg collapse is what's behind his lack of movement (and could also be behind his lack of stamina), that can be corrected.

And if it turns out that he can really only bring gas for an an inning, that's one less spot in the bullpen to worry about.

I did wonder if the leg collapse is a part of him driving off the rubber to generate power. At his size, he's not really going to be able to stand tall and gain leverage that way.

Agreed on the possibility of him possibly being a lights-out bullpen guy, but that'd probably be a little disappointing.

At some point he will need to get into a weight room and build his legs. That's how he can generate drive. But I'm also operating under the assumption that somebody who can write up this detailed a scouting report knows collapsing the leg (where the body moves more vertically) from driving (where the body moves forward).

This is great.

[Eli]

That all seems like a pretty level and fair assessment. I do wonder if the scouting community is still catching up to him, considering he was almost universally ignored just a few years ago. His numbers are totally off the charts, so much so that it's hard to try and translate them into major-league equivalents. Basically, I think it's a little weird to say his ceiling is 3/4 starter when he's putting up better numbers than any other pitcher in the minor leagues. There still has to be some chance he turns into a top-of-the-rotation guy, even if it's less likely than some other guys with a more traditional profile.

Since he's just getting moved up into high-A at this point there are at least two years to level-set his performance to an accurate projection. Not to mention, if leg collapse is what's behind his lack of movement (and could also be behind his lack of stamina), that can be corrected.

And if it turns out that he can really only bring gas for an an inning, that's one less spot in the bullpen to worry about.

I did wonder if the leg collapse is a part of him driving off the rubber to generate power. At his size, he's not really going to be able to stand tall and gain leverage that way.

Agreed on the possibility of him possibly being a lights-out bullpen guy, but that'd probably be a little disappointing.

At some point he will need to get into a weight room and build his legs. That's how he can generate drive. But I'm also operating under the assumption that somebody who can write up this detailed a scouting report knows collapsing the leg (where the body moves more vertically) from driving (where the body moves forward).

Again, yes. I might not have been quite clear in my first post; I also assume the guy knows the difference between the two. I just mentioned that his leg could be collapsing because he's forced to drive more with it than some other pitchers. Total speculation on my part though.

I feel like you're trying to argue with me despite the fact I agree with everything you're saying.

[Quality Start Machine]

That all seems like a pretty level and fair assessment. I do wonder if the scouting community is still catching up to him, considering he was almost universally ignored just a few years ago. His numbers are totally off the charts, so much so that it's hard to try and translate them into major-league equivalents. Basically, I think it's a little weird to say his ceiling is 3/4 starter when he's putting up better numbers than any other pitcher in the minor leagues. There still has to be some chance he turns into a top-of-the-rotation guy, even if it's less likely than some other guys with a more traditional profile.

Since he's just getting moved up into high-A at this point there are at least two years to level-set his performance to an accurate projection. Not to mention, if leg collapse is what's behind his lack of movement (and could also be behind his lack of stamina), that can be corrected.

And if it turns out that he can really only bring gas for an an inning, that's one less spot in the bullpen to worry about.

I did wonder if the leg collapse is a part of him driving off the rubber to generate power. At his size, he's not really going to be able to stand tall and gain leverage that way.

Agreed on the possibility of him possibly being a lights-out bullpen guy, but that'd probably be a little disappointing.

At some point he will need to get into a weight room and build his legs. That's how he can generate drive. But I'm also operating under the assumption that somebody who can write up this detailed a scouting report knows collapsing the leg (where the body moves more vertically) from driving (where the body moves forward).

Again, yes. I might not have been quite clear in my first post; I also assume the guy knows the difference between the two. I just mentioned that his leg could be collapsing because he's forced to drive more with it than some other pitchers. Total speculation on my part though.

I feel like you're trying to argue with me despite the fact I agree with everything you're saying.

prove it.

[Saul Goodman]

Jon Heyman thinks the Cubs might swap some of their big bat prospects for some of Miami's big arm prospects.  Having to play for Loria's little plaything in that very-Miami stadium just seems cruel.

[BH]

Jon Heyman thinks the Cubs might swap some of their big bat prospects for some of Miami's big arm prospects.  Having to play for Loria's little plaything in that very-Miami stadium just seems cruel.

What Heyman is trying to say is that every team wants Vitters and/or Brett Jackson and are willing to give up their best pitching prospects for either.

[Saul Goodman]

Jon Heyman thinks the Cubs might swap some of their big bat prospects for some of Miami's big arm prospects.  Having to play for Loria's little plaything in that very-Miami stadium just seems cruel.

What Heyman is trying to say is that every team wants Vitters and/or Brett Jackson and are willing to give up their best pitching prospects for either.

I'm fine with this.  TRAYD UM