Reasonable Trade Discussion

[Saul Goodman]

I've been wondering when hating trooblud would become acceptable again.

[D. Doluntap]

From a baseball standpoint (somehow ignoring the fact that Chapman is a dickhead, which, isn't easy), I think it's an overpay but not by that much. I think Torres may turn into a fine player, but he could also be Felix Pie/Brian Dopirak/Jason Dubois/Ryan Harvey/Josh Vitters/Eric Patterson. All of those are guys I wish Hendry had traded. Maybe Theo thinks he's selling high on Torres?

The biggest issue with this trade is that Clayton Richard is still on the team. Oh and Chapman is a dickhead.

[Quality Start Machine]

If they have an extension in place, that changes it

I don't understand this thinking - the Yankees aren't giving anything of value up if Chapman signs an extension. This would be a function of the Cubs having a skill at negotiating contracts, not reflective of any trade-making skill.

It's reflective of their trade making skill in the sense that they (probably) won't pull the trigger unless they lock him up for a few years.

Disagree. Trades should be evaluated on the players you give up, and the players you get back. The salaries and team control of the players at the time the deal is made should enter into that, but if the Cubs can convince Chapman to sign an extension after the trade it doesn't mean that they or the Yankees give up a different set of players.

What it does is change the overall concept of the trade from "four guys for a rental" to "four guys for the closer for the next x seasons". And I think Jepstink are smart enough to know whether the second scenario is realistic or not.

Of course, if the concept is changed to "four guys for a World Championship", then I don't think anyone here will think they overpaid.

No it doesn't. The trade was four guys for the rights to Aroldis Chapman for 2 months and a postseason. All indications are the Yankees only traded him after he refused their offer of an extension. He's going to hit the open market and will only re-sign with the Cubs if they make the best offer. The trade did fuckall to increase the odds of him being a Cub in 2017.

Other than having the ability to talk to his agent about a contract for the next two months.

[Yeti]

I've been wondering when hating trooblud would become acceptable again.

I'm still advocating that it's not acceptable, but I'm just a little extra sensitive about that.

[SKO]

I've been wondering when hating trooblud would become acceptable again.

I'm still advocating that it's not acceptable, but I'm just a little extra sensitive about that.

I can hate his opinions and his smug attitude and still feel bad that his kid died. If he's going to keep throwing bad opinions into the void it's the void's right to disagree with them, no matter what personal tragedy he has in his past. Even still I'm not going to tweet directly at him.

[Yeti]

If they have an extension in place, that changes it

I don't understand this thinking - the Yankees aren't giving anything of value up if Chapman signs an extension. This would be a function of the Cubs having a skill at negotiating contracts, not reflective of any trade-making skill.

Correct. The extension may make fans feel better, but it has zero trade value.

Yes, it would make me feel better about giving up Torres. I guess I just wish the deal was contingent on the Cubs locking him up for a few years. It would soften the blow, at least for me.

[Saul Goodman]

Other than having the ability to talk to his agent about a contract for the next two months.

Which will involve his agent pretending he can't hear and pointing at the calendar on his wall, which has been opened to November.

[Grandmaster Wang]

For me, it's the inclusion of Rashad Crawford that is inexcusable. Bring back McFail.

[Wheezer]

If every team has an even chance of winning the World Series, that's 12.5% odds. Give the Cubs a small bump because they're good and maybe they start off at 15%. How much does Chapman improve those odds? Does he bump them to 16% or 20%? The latter is a 33% jump in their chances and that's pretty huge.

No, I think it's just an inapposite comparison between absolute and relative risks values. Show me a 95% CI, dammit.

[Yeti]

If every team has an even chance of winning the World Series, that's 12.5% odds. Give the Cubs a small bump because they're good and maybe they start off at 15%. How much does Chapman improve those odds? Does he bump them to 16% or 20%? The latter is a 33% jump in their chances and that's pretty huge.

No, I think it's just an inapposite comparison between absolute and relative risks values. Show me a 95% CI, dammit.

10%, 45%

The data is the data.

[Wheezer]

If every team has an even chance of winning the World Series, that's 12.5% odds. Give the Cubs a small bump because they're good and maybe they start off at 15%. How much does Chapman improve those odds? Does he bump them to 16% or 20%? The latter is a 33% jump in their chances and that's pretty huge.

No, I think it's just an inapposite comparison between absolute and relative risks values. Show me a 95% CI, dammit.

10%, 45%

The data is the data.

I really hope that was sarcasm.

[Yeti]

If every team has an even chance of winning the World Series, that's 12.5% odds. Give the Cubs a small bump because they're good and maybe they start off at 15%. How much does Chapman improve those odds? Does he bump them to 16% or 20%? The latter is a 33% jump in their chances and that's pretty huge.

No, I think it's just an inapposite comparison between absolute and relative risks values. Show me a 95% CI, dammit.

10%, 45%

The data is the data.

I really hope that was sarcasm.

Yea, it was just my made up confidence interval

[D. Doluntap]

Marlins have acquired old friend Larry Andersen Andrew Cashner. He of the 3.2 WAR since leaving the Cubs. God I love Theo.

[Oleg]

Marlins have acquired old friend Larry Andersen Andrew Cashner. He of the 3.2 WAR since leaving the Cubs. God I love Theo.

The Padres got 1B Josh Naylor back, who was a first round pick last year.  Nice choice, Theo.

[Quality Start Machine]

Marlins have acquired old friend Larry Andersen Andrew Cashner. He of the 3.2 WAR since leaving the Cubs. God I love Theo.

The Padres got 1B Josh Naylor back, who was a first round pick last year.  Nice choice, Theo.

Guess the Padres need a 1B, since they traded one to get Cashner.