Reasonable Trade Discussion

[Quality Start Machine]

Question: Is Addison Russell's remaining team control worth half a season of Manny Machado?

Yes. The offense immediately becomes more dangerous, and the Cubs can start their sales pitch early.

Even if Machado winds up walking, Baez can play short and the Ian Happ Outfield Adventures can come to an end until Ademan's ready.

[Saul Goodman]

I've come around on this too, mostly because Russell continues to regress. This team is in win-now mode; he can go try to figure it out in Baltimore while Machado slides in at SS. GET IT DONE THEO

[SKO]

I've come around on this too, mostly because Russell continues to regress. This team is in win-now mode; he can go try to figure it out in Baltimore while Machado slides in at SS. GET IT DONE THEO

It's pretty simple:

Plan A) Machado Rental, Sign Harper:
2018: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Baez 2B, Machado SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HappMora CF, HeyZo RF
2019: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Happ 2B, Baez SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HeyMora CF, Harper RF

Plan B)Machado extension
See the 2018 lineup above.

Either way no one misses Addison Russell

[Saul Goodman]

I've come around on this too, mostly because Russell continues to regress. This team is in win-now mode; he can go try to figure it out in Baltimore while Machado slides in at SS. GET IT DONE THEO

It's pretty simple:

Plan A) Machado Rental, Sign Harper:
2018: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Baez 2B, Machado SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HappMora CF, HeyZo RF
2019: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Happ 2B, Baez SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HeyMora CF, Harper RF

Plan B)Machado extension
See the 2018 lineup above.

Either way no one misses Addison Russell

And the fact that he is *allegedly* a trash human being makes all of this a lot easier to take. David Bote, start shopping for the jewelry or fancy watch you're going to need to give up #13. IT'S GONNA HAI

[Saul Goodman]

I've come around on this too, mostly because Russell continues to regress. This team is in win-now mode; he can go try to figure it out in Baltimore while Machado slides in at SS. GET IT DONE THEO

It's pretty simple:

Plan A) Machado Rental, Sign Harper:
2018: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Baez 2B, Machado SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HappMora CF, HeyZo RF
2019: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Happ 2B, Baez SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HeyMora CF, Harper RF

Plan B)Machado extension
See the 2018 lineup above.

Either way no one misses Addison Russell

DPD. I vastly prefer these plans to Plan C: Joe hangs yet another "Try Not to Suck" shirt in Russell's locker every single morning.

[R-V]

I've come around on this too, mostly because Russell continues to regress. This team is in win-now mode; he can go try to figure it out in Baltimore while Machado slides in at SS. GET IT DONE THEO

It's pretty simple:

Plan A) Machado Rental, Sign Harper:
2018: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Baez 2B, Machado SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HappMora CF, HeyZo RF
2019: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Happ 2B, Baez SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HeyMora CF, Harper RF

Plan B)Machado extension
See the 2018 lineup above.

Either way no one misses Addison Russell

What is the story on Machado's defense at SS? I shockingly do not follow the Orioles too closely, so other than knowing that his glove played well at 3B the last few years, I'm not sure what the consensus is on Machado sticking at SS long-term.

[SKO]

I've come around on this too, mostly because Russell continues to regress. This team is in win-now mode; he can go try to figure it out in Baltimore while Machado slides in at SS. GET IT DONE THEO

It's pretty simple:

Plan A) Machado Rental, Sign Harper:
2018: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Baez 2B, Machado SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HappMora CF, HeyZo RF
2019: Contreras C, Rizzo 1B, Happ 2B, Baez SS, Bryant 3B, Schwarber LF, HeyMora CF, Harper RF

Plan B)Machado extension
See the 2018 lineup above.

Either way no one misses Addison Russell

What is the story on Machado's defense at SS? I shockingly do not follow the Orioles too closely, so other than knowing that his glove played well at 3B the last few years, I'm not sure what the consensus is on Machado sticking at SS long-term.

Fangraphs/BP/B-Ref all have him as below average there, but he looks more serviceable than, like, Theriot. Manny was -6.2 runs per FRAA per BP last year, Theriot in 2008 was -11.9. so he's probably more "meh but playable" with elite offense than "not really a shortstop."

[Quality Start Machine]

It seems that Machado wouldn't be a stranger to everyone in the Cubs' clubhouse.

[Bort]

It seems that Machado wouldn't be a stranger to everyone in the Cubs' clubhouse.

Really forked that link.

[Shooter]

Ah, gotcha. I went to his page and it all seemed to be about Chapman being a scumbag.

"just bad asset management. traded a lottery ticket for a gas station cheeseburger"

I don't like the trade now that more details have come out, but that's a shit metaphor. The expected value of a lottery ticket is like $0.000000000001. Trading it for a gas station cheeseburger would be good asset management.

Yeah the amusing thing is I don't really like this trade. It is an overpay and I think Chapman's a douchebag. But from a baseball only standpoint it does increase their odds of winning it all this year however marginally and I don't think it's a horrendous overpay, just the kind that teams on the cusp of winning it all are prone to making.

I just am not surprised Trueblood managed to wade in with his Smartest Man in the Room smugness and have the worst take of all.

I was thinking it's a lot like the Snork/Hammel trade.

Elite SS Prospect + Billy McKinney + AAAA swingman + something/body else.

The A's got 1.5 years of Snork and a half season of Hammel.

The Cubs are getting a half season of Chapman and a lot of off-field baggage.

Seems like comparatively, the A's got the better deal since they got two SPs for the second half and could flip Snork's final year for other prospects afterward.

But ... 105.

I think it's possible we've overvalued Gleyber because he's been good for his age but his ceiling still actually seems to be merely "pretty good" and not "great." Freddy Sanchez at SS is the comp that stuck with me. That's a very useful player but it's not one that has a future as a Cub and it's also likely that our fantasy trade packages gave him more value than he actually has. Sahadev was one of a few guys I saw last night saying teams were more impressed with Happ/Eloy then Gleyber.

But again I don't doubt that it's an overpay, it's just one I'm comfortable with them making, or would be if Chapman was just a baseball player and not a wife beater. Hell I don't disagree with Beane making that trade back in 2014 either. Their second half collapse was pretty inexplicable and had little to do with that trade, and he then sold Snork before it was too late and got Semien out of it, and Semien has been nearly as valuable as Addison this year.

Gleyber Torres is really good at baseball. Maybe pitchers will adjust, and he'll slow down, but he's fucking good (.295/.351/.577 with 13 dongs in 172 PA as the youngest player in the AL).

And I have no complaint about the trade. As they say, flags fly forever.

[Quality Start Machine]

So...Jesse's suggesting the Cubs send Happ, Montgomery and a couple prospects to the Mets for DeGrom.

Anybody got Jepstink's secretary on the phone?

[Saul Goodman]

So...Jesse's suggesting the Cubs send Happ, Montgomery and a couple prospects to the Mets for DeGrom.

Anybody got Jepstink's secretary on the phone?

I do wonder how much they would be willing to give up for DeGrom, let alone what the Mets would take.  Maybe the conversation starts with Happ, Montgomery, Amaya + TBD?

DeGrom would be the gutsiest move they've ever made, more so than the Chapman and Quintana trades.  He's the current ERA leader in the NL and immediately becomes their Game 1 starter for every playoff series.  The pitching scares me for October, which of course means everyone is going to pitch like an ace and make me look stupid.  But if they could at least pry Wheeler loose...