2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks/NHL/Stink Bowman should be FYERRED Thread

[J. Walter Weatherman]

9.

[Slaky]

I realize our fans are idiots just like every single team that's ever existed but the Detroit Red Wings blogs are still going on about officiating. I don't think I've ever seen that from the CI and certainly not from us.

[Internet Apex]

I realize our fans are idiots just like every single team that's ever existed but the Detroit Red Wings blogs are still going on about officiating. I don't think I've ever seen that from the CI and certainly not from us.

Wade into a Pacers blog sometime. No. Don't.

[Yeti]

I realize our fans are idiots just like every single team that's ever existed but the Detroit Red Wings blogs are still going on about officiating. I don't think I've ever seen that from the CI and certainly not from us.

Wade into a Pacers blog sometime. No. Don't.

I get my referee grades from www.lebronsflopping.wordpress.com

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I realize our fans are idiots just like every single team that's ever existed but the Detroit Red Wings blogs are still going on about officiating. I don't think I've ever seen that from the CI and certainly not from us.

Screw the tinfoil hat-wearing blogosphere asshats; I'm more amused by the absolute clearing out, LA-Dodger style, of the stands after Frolik's penalty last night.  Holy shit you're sitting behind the glass and can't stay until the end of a 1-goal game?  That's some weak sauce. 

Also, speaking of the Frolik penalty, am I the only one who would've been fine with a regular penalty, which would've likely shaved 2 minutes off the clock?  I mean, until Frolik scored on a penalty shot while tearing Corey Schenider's groin in half 2 years ago, a Blackhawk had not scored on a penalty shot at home since Troy Murray in the 1980's--regular season or otherwise.  As I didn't expect Frolik to make the shot last night (by making it, he becomes the only man to ever score 2 penalty shots in the NHL playoffs), I would've preferred the Hawks take the penalty and hold the puck.  In general, I would prefer teams are given the option to accept the penalty shot or the 2 minutes. 

[Yeti]

I realize our fans are idiots just like every single team that's ever existed but the Detroit Red Wings blogs are still going on about officiating. I don't think I've ever seen that from the CI and certainly not from us.

Screw the tinfoil hat-wearing blogosphere asshats; I'm more amused by the absolute clearing out, LA-Dodger style, of the stands after Frolik's penalty last night.  Holy shit you're sitting behind the glass and can't stay until the end of a 1-goal game?  That's some weak sauce.  

Also, speaking of the Frolik penalty, am I the only one who would've been fine with a regular penalty, which would've likely shaved 2 minutes off the clock?  I mean, until Frolik scored on a penalty shot while tearing Corey Schenider's groin in half 2 years ago, a Blackhawk had not scored on a penalty shot at home since Troy Murray in the 1980's--regular season or otherwise.  As I didn't expect Frolik to make the shot last night (by making it, he becomes the only man to ever score 2 penalty shots in the NHL playoffs), I would've preferred the Hawks take the penalty and hold the puck.  In general, I would prefer teams are given the option to accept the penalty shot or the 2 minutes.  

Did you mean the road?

I remember a Hossa penalty shot goal in January of 2011 in Chicago

[Quality Start Machine]

I realize our fans are idiots just like every single team that's ever existed but the Detroit Red Wings blogs are still going on about officiating. I don't think I've ever seen that from the CI and certainly not from us.

Screw the tinfoil hat-wearing blogosphere asshats; I'm more amused by the absolute clearing out, LA-Dodger style, of the stands after Frolik's penalty last night.  Holy shit you're sitting behind the glass and can't stay until the end of a 1-goal game?  That's some weak sauce. 

Also, speaking of the Frolik penalty, am I the only one who would've been fine with a regular penalty, which would've likely shaved 2 minutes off the clock?  I mean, until Frolik scored on a penalty shot while tearing Corey Schenider's groin in half 2 years ago, a Blackhawk had not scored on a penalty shot at home since Troy Murray in the 1980's--regular season or otherwise.  As I didn't expect Frolik to make the shot last night (by making it, he becomes the only man to ever score 2 penalty shots in the NHL playoffs), I would've preferred the Hawks take the penalty and hold the puck.  In general, I would prefer teams are given the option to accept the penalty shot or the 2 minutes. 

I actually think there was a penalty on a Saad breakaway earlier in the series that was more penalty shot-worthy, but it was two minutes instead.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I realize our fans are idiots just like every single team that's ever existed but the Detroit Red Wings blogs are still going on about officiating. I don't think I've ever seen that from the CI and certainly not from us.

Screw the tinfoil hat-wearing blogosphere asshats; I'm more amused by the absolute clearing out, LA-Dodger style, of the stands after Frolik's penalty last night.  Holy shit you're sitting behind the glass and can't stay until the end of a 1-goal game?  That's some weak sauce.  

Also, speaking of the Frolik penalty, am I the only one who would've been fine with a regular penalty, which would've likely shaved 2 minutes off the clock?  I mean, until Frolik scored on a penalty shot while tearing Corey Schenider's groin in half 2 years ago, a Blackhawk had not scored on a penalty shot at home since Troy Murray in the 1980's--regular season or otherwise.  As I didn't expect Frolik to make the shot last night (by making it, he becomes the only man to ever score 2 penalty shots in the NHL playoffs), I would've preferred the Hawks take the penalty and hold the puck.  In general, I would prefer teams are given the option to accept the penalty shot or the 2 minutes.  

Did you mean the road?

I remember a Hossa penalty shot goal in January of 2011 in Chicago

No I meant at home.  My main point is that the success rate of penalty shots is not that great and, though they represent a clear shot on goal, that in certain situations--like last night--a 2-minute power play for the team with the lead may be preferred.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Also, speaking of the Frolik penalty, am I the only one who would've been fine with a regular penalty, which would've likely shaved 2 minutes off the clock?

Probably.

The Hawks were only up a goal with the period not even half over. A goal there is worth way more than two minutes burned off of the clock.

And penalty shots convert at a higher percentage (per this data, 180/532 or 33.8% in the regular season since 2005) than even the very best power plays (compare to WAS at 26.8% in the regular season or DET at 25.5% in the '08-09 regular season, the best 82-game mark since 2005), let alone the 2013 Hawks' weaker offering (16.6% regular season/18.2% postseason).

This is why a penalty shot is almost always better...



TL;DR: YOU'RE OVERTHINKING IT, HUEY.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Also, speaking of the Frolik penalty, am I the only one who would've been fine with a regular penalty, which would've likely shaved 2 minutes off the clock?

Probably.

The Hawks were only up a goal with the period not even half over. A goal there is worth way more than two minutes burned off of the clock.

And penalty shots convert at a higher percentage (per this data, 180/532 or 33.8% in the regular season since 2005) than even the very best power plays (compare to WAS at 26.8% in the regular season or DET at 25.5% in the '08-09 regular season, the best 82-game mark since 2005), let alone the 2013 Hawks' weaker offering (16.6% regular season/18.2% postseason).

This is why a penalty shot is almost always better...



TL;DR: YOU'RE OVERTHINKING IT, HUEY.

Maybe, but I'm not comparing success rate outcomes, just strategy.  As neither play represents any sort of a sure thing, I'm just suggesting a puck possession strategy that, while it happens to yield worse odds at actually scoring, brings the game closer to a finish.  Purely academic, obviously, but I'm just throwin' it out there.

[Slaky]

Also, speaking of the Frolik penalty, am I the only one who would've been fine with a regular penalty, which would've likely shaved 2 minutes off the clock?

Probably.

The Hawks were only up a goal with the period not even half over. A goal there is worth way more than two minutes burned off of the clock.

And penalty shots convert at a higher percentage (per this data, 180/532 or 33.8% in the regular season since 2005) than even the very best power plays (compare to WAS at 26.8% in the regular season or DET at 25.5% in the '08-09 regular season, the best 82-game mark since 2005), let alone the 2013 Hawks' weaker offering (16.6% regular season/18.2% postseason).

This is why a penalty shot is almost always better...



TL;DR: YOU'RE OVERTHINKING IT, HUEY.

Maybe, but I'm not comparing success rate outcomes, just strategy.  As neither play represents any sort of a sure thing, I'm just suggesting a puck possession strategy that, while it happens to yield worse odds at actually scoring, brings the game closer to a finish.  Purely academic, obviously, but I'm just throwin' it out there.

When you're talking about a one goal lead, knowing there's going to be an extra-attacker in the final minute, I just don't see how you ever turn down the chance to go one on one with the goalie to theoretically play keep away for two minutes.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Maybe, but I'm not comparing success rate outcomes, just strategy.  As neither play represents any sort of a sure thing, I'm just suggesting a puck possession strategy that, while it happens to yield worse odds at actually scoring, brings the game closer to a finish.  Purely academic, obviously, but I'm just throwin' it out there.

How much closer to a finish? 8:17 remaining instead of 10:17? Whoop-de-doo.

If we had an in-game win probabilities tool like people have made for baseball, football and basketball, we could probably look for an inflection point time- and score-wise at which the win probability gained by the Hawks with a penalty shot (over a power play) is less than the win probability lost by the Wings to the two minutes burned off of the clock.

I'm not aware of such a thing existing, but my hunch is that such an inflection point, if it even exists with a one-goal lead, wouldn't come until far later in the game.

[Tonker]

Maybe, but I'm not comparing success rate outcomes, just strategy.  As neither play represents any sort of a sure thing, I'm just suggesting a puck possession strategy that, while it happens to yield worse odds at actually scoring, brings the game closer to a finish.  Purely academic, obviously, but I'm just throwin' it out there.

How much closer to a finish? 8:17 remaining instead of 10:17? Whoop-de-doo.

If we had an in-game win probabilities tool like people have made for baseball, football and basketball, we could probably look for an inflection point time- and score-wise at which the win probability gained by the Hawks with a penalty shot (over a power play) is less than the win probability lost by the Wings to the two minutes burned off of the clock.

I'm not aware of such a thing existing, but my hunch is that such an inflection point, if it even exists with a one-goal lead, wouldn't come until far later in the game.

I think you've missed the point.  Huey doesn't care for your ZORPing Statfaggery.  He's got his gut feeling*, dammit.

*His gut is telling him to find potatoes, soonest.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

This is probably somewhat dubious, and is most certainly a dramatic oversimplification, but what the hell...

Per this, the Wings scored 80 goals in 2277.6 5-on-5 minutes this season, and 3 shorties in 252.6 4-on-5 minutes. That makes for 0.023 fewer goals per minute 4-on-5 versus full strength.

By robbing them of a skater for two minutes, then, you're (theoretically and, again, probably dubiously) reducing their "expected goals" by 0.046.

So, by that number I think you could say that, if the Hawks' odds of scoring on a penalty shot are better than 4.6% greater than their odds of scoring on a power play, you want them to be taking the shot. I think.

The Hawks' regular season and playoffs power play was, by my reckoning, 30-for-178 (16.9%) coming into last night (including likely-higher-percentage 5-on-3s and what have you).

And, as far as Frolik's numbers go, he was a career 2-for-2 in penalty shots (1, 2) before last night and 2-for-13 in shootout attempts, good for 4-for-15 (26.7%) overall in 1-on-goalie set pieces. (After last night he's 5-for-16 or 31.3%, a touch closer to the league average of 33.8%)

So...

Vanishingly small sample size aside, Frolik's penalty and shootout percentage bests the Hawks' PP% by at least 9.8%.

And, in turn, potential dubiousness of this entire damn exercise aside, a Frolik penalty shot is AT LEAST 5.2 BETTER than burning 2 minutes off the clock with a CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS POWER PLAY. (I think.)

You dumb mick.

TL;DR: Now I'm the one overthinking it.

[Tony]

Also, speaking of the Frolik penalty, am I the only one who would've been fine with a regular penalty, which would've likely shaved 2 minutes off the clock?  I mean, until Frolik scored on a penalty shot while tearing Corey Schenider's groin in half 2 years ago, a Blackhawk had not scored on a penalty shot at home since Troy Murray in the 1980's--regular season or otherwise.  As I didn't expect Frolik to make the shot last night (by making it, he becomes the only man to ever score 2 penalty shots in the NHL playoffs), I would've preferred the Hawks take the penalty and hold the puck.  In general, I would prefer teams are given the option to accept the penalty shot or the 2 minutes. 

Intrepid Reader: Marty Mornhinweg

Makes sense to me.