Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[J. Walter Weatherman]

I guess this bit from Keith Law is maybe a bit concerning (though he ends on a positive note):

Schwarber is listed at 6-feet, 240 pounds; only three players 6 feet or shorter and 240 pounds or more have ever played the outfield in the majors (Marlon Byrd, Dayan Viciedo and Byron Gettis), so the historical comps point to Schwarber moving to first base unless he can drop some weight. (The list isn't much better if you drop the weight bar to 230, adding four players, one of whom was nicknamed "Fats.") The Cubs did take the draft's best college senior at No. 45 in Jake Stinnett of Maryland, and I imagine both players will sign under-slot deals, giving the Cubs a dividend to use on Friday on some top prep players who are still on the board. So the net result of the Schwarber pick could end up a big positive.

Maybe the Cubs know that the DH is coming to the National League?

Curious about how meaningful that is, I just downloaded some files from Baseball-DataBank.org (not updated since March 2011, so the likes of Dayan Viciedo and Mike Trout are not accounted for) and filtered for players in the datase who've started 10 or more games in the outfield, weigh 225 pounds or more and are 75 inches or shorter.

Finally, for sake of apples-to-apples comparisons, I calculated each player's BMI (lbs / in^2 * 703).

The results, with Schwarber added to the mix...

Name                W     H    BMI
Carlos Lee         265   74   34.0
Wily Mo Pena       270   75   33.7
Marlon Byrd        245   72   33.2
Elijah Dukes       250   73   33.0
Byron Gettis       240   72   32.5
Kyle Schwarber     240   72   32.5
Travis Snider      235   72   31.9
Josh Fields        240   73   31.7
Paul McAnulty      225   71   31.4
Ty Wigginton       230   72   31.2
Chris Carter       230   72   31.2
Jack Cust          235   73   31.0
Daryle Ward        240   74   30.8
Nelson Cruz        240   74   30.8
Nick Stavinoha     240   74   30.8
Carlos Delgado     245   75   30.6
Benny Agbayani     225   72   30.5
Wendell Magee      225   72   30.5
Butch Huskey       244   75   30.5
Lance Berkman      230   73   30.3
Andruw Jones       230   73   30.3
Vernon Wells       230   73   30.3
Dernell Stenson    230   73   30.3
Ben Johnson        230   73   30.3
Eric Hinske        235   74   30.2
Carlos Quentin     235   74   30.2
Brandon Allen      235   74   30.2
Jason Giambi       240   75   30.0
Austin Kearns      240   75   30.0
Miguel Cairo       225   73   29.7
Pete Incaviglia    225   73   29.7
Bobby Kielty       225   73   29.7
Jim Rushford       225   73   29.7
Jonny Gomes        225   73   29.7
Hector Luna        225   73   29.7
Ken Griffey        230   74   29.5
Juan Rivera        230   74   29.5
Travis Buck        230   74   29.5
Vladimir Guerrero  235   75   29.4
Logan Morrison     235   75   29.4
Michael Cuddyer    225   74   28.9
Torii Hunter       225   74   28.9
Raul Ibanez        225   74   28.9
Glenn Murray       225   74   28.9
Gene Oliver        225   74   28.9
Jason Lane         225   74   28.9
Matt Tuiasosopo    225   74   28.9
Russell Branyan    230   75   28.7
Albert Pujols      230   75   28.7
Josh Kroeger       230   75   28.7
Chris Dickerson    230   75   28.7
Garret Anderson    225   75   28.1
Gary Matthews      225   75   28.1
Scott Thorman      225   75   28.1
Matt Kemp          225   75   28.1
Jay Bruce          225   75   28.1

[PenFoe]

I guess this bit from Keith Law is maybe a bit concerning (though he ends on a positive note):

Schwarber is listed at 6-feet, 240 pounds; only three players 6 feet or shorter and 240 pounds or more have ever played the outfield in the majors (Marlon Byrd, Dayan Viciedo and Byron Gettis), so the historical comps point to Schwarber moving to first base unless he can drop some weight. (The list isn't much better if you drop the weight bar to 230, adding four players, one of whom was nicknamed "Fats.") The Cubs did take the draft's best college senior at No. 45 in Jake Stinnett of Maryland, and I imagine both players will sign under-slot deals, giving the Cubs a dividend to use on Friday on some top prep players who are still on the board. So the net result of the Schwarber pick could end up a big positive.

Maybe the Cubs know that the DH is coming to the National League?

Curious about how meaningful that is, I just downloaded some files from Baseball-DataBank.org (not updated since March 2011, so the likes of Dayan Viciedo and Mike Trout are not accounted for) and filtered for players in the datase who've started 10 or more games in the outfield, weigh 225 pounds or more and are 75 inches or shorter.

Finally, for sake of apples-to-apples comparisons, I calculated each player's BMI (lbs / in^2 * 703).

The results, with Schwarber added to the mix...

Name                W     H    BMI
Carlos Lee         265   74   34.0
Wily Mo Pena       270   75   33.7
Marlon Byrd        245   72   33.2
Elijah Dukes       250   73   33.0
Byron Gettis       240   72   32.5
Kyle Schwarber     240   72   32.5
Travis Snider      235   72   31.9
Josh Fields        240   73   31.7
Paul McAnulty      225   71   31.4
Ty Wigginton       230   72   31.2
Chris Carter       230   72   31.2
Jack Cust          235   73   31.0
Daryle Ward        240   74   30.8
Nelson Cruz        240   74   30.8
Nick Stavinoha     240   74   30.8
Carlos Delgado     245   75   30.6
Benny Agbayani     225   72   30.5
Wendell Magee      225   72   30.5
Butch Huskey       244   75   30.5
Lance Berkman      230   73   30.3
Andruw Jones       230   73   30.3
Vernon Wells       230   73   30.3
Dernell Stenson    230   73   30.3
Ben Johnson        230   73   30.3
Eric Hinske        235   74   30.2
Carlos Quentin     235   74   30.2
Brandon Allen      235   74   30.2
Jason Giambi       240   75   30.0
Austin Kearns      240   75   30.0
Miguel Cairo       225   73   29.7
Pete Incaviglia    225   73   29.7
Bobby Kielty       225   73   29.7
Jim Rushford       225   73   29.7
Jonny Gomes        225   73   29.7
Hector Luna        225   73   29.7
Ken Griffey        230   74   29.5
Juan Rivera        230   74   29.5
Travis Buck        230   74   29.5
Vladimir Guerrero  235   75   29.4
Logan Morrison     235   75   29.4
Michael Cuddyer    225   74   28.9
Torii Hunter       225   74   28.9
Raul Ibanez        225   74   28.9
Glenn Murray       225   74   28.9
Gene Oliver        225   74   28.9
Jason Lane         225   74   28.9
Matt Tuiasosopo    225   74   28.9
Russell Branyan    230   75   28.7
Albert Pujols      230   75   28.7
Josh Kroeger       230   75   28.7
Chris Dickerson    230   75   28.7
Garret Anderson    225   75   28.1
Gary Matthews      225   75   28.1
Scott Thorman      225   75   28.1
Matt Kemp          225   75   28.1
Jay Bruce          225   75   28.1

I don't even want to analyze this, I just want to acknowledge that this post is truly what makes this the only site. 

[PenFoe]

I guess this bit from Keith Law is maybe a bit concerning (though he ends on a positive note):

Schwarber is listed at 6-feet, 240 pounds; only three players 6 feet or shorter and 240 pounds or more have ever played the outfield in the majors (Marlon Byrd, Dayan Viciedo and Byron Gettis), so the historical comps point to Schwarber moving to first base unless he can drop some weight. (The list isn't much better if you drop the weight bar to 230, adding four players, one of whom was nicknamed "Fats.") The Cubs did take the draft's best college senior at No. 45 in Jake Stinnett of Maryland, and I imagine both players will sign under-slot deals, giving the Cubs a dividend to use on Friday on some top prep players who are still on the board. So the net result of the Schwarber pick could end up a big positive.

Maybe the Cubs know that the DH is coming to the National League?

Curious about how meaningful that is, I just downloaded some files from Baseball-DataBank.org (not updated since March 2011, so the likes of Dayan Viciedo and Mike Trout are not accounted for) and filtered for players in the datase who've started 10 or more games in the outfield, weigh 225 pounds or more and are 75 inches or shorter.

Finally, for sake of apples-to-apples comparisons, I calculated each player's BMI (lbs / in^2 * 703).

The results, with Schwarber added to the mix...

Name                W     H    BMI
Carlos Lee         265   74   34.0
Wily Mo Pena       270   75   33.7
Marlon Byrd        245   72   33.2
Elijah Dukes       250   73   33.0
Byron Gettis       240   72   32.5
Kyle Schwarber     240   72   32.5
Travis Snider      235   72   31.9
Josh Fields        240   73   31.7
Paul McAnulty      225   71   31.4
Ty Wigginton       230   72   31.2
Chris Carter       230   72   31.2
Jack Cust          235   73   31.0
Daryle Ward        240   74   30.8
Nelson Cruz        240   74   30.8
Nick Stavinoha     240   74   30.8
Carlos Delgado     245   75   30.6
Benny Agbayani     225   72   30.5
Wendell Magee      225   72   30.5
Butch Huskey       244   75   30.5
Lance Berkman      230   73   30.3
Andruw Jones       230   73   30.3
Vernon Wells       230   73   30.3
Dernell Stenson    230   73   30.3
Ben Johnson        230   73   30.3
Eric Hinske        235   74   30.2
Carlos Quentin     235   74   30.2
Brandon Allen      235   74   30.2
Jason Giambi       240   75   30.0
Austin Kearns      240   75   30.0
Miguel Cairo       225   73   29.7
Pete Incaviglia    225   73   29.7
Bobby Kielty       225   73   29.7
Jim Rushford       225   73   29.7
Jonny Gomes        225   73   29.7
Hector Luna        225   73   29.7
Ken Griffey        230   74   29.5
Juan Rivera        230   74   29.5
Travis Buck        230   74   29.5
Vladimir Guerrero  235   75   29.4
Logan Morrison     235   75   29.4
Michael Cuddyer    225   74   28.9
Torii Hunter       225   74   28.9
Raul Ibanez        225   74   28.9
Glenn Murray       225   74   28.9
Gene Oliver        225   74   28.9
Jason Lane         225   74   28.9
Matt Tuiasosopo    225   74   28.9
Russell Branyan    230   75   28.7
Albert Pujols      230   75   28.7
Josh Kroeger       230   75   28.7
Chris Dickerson    230   75   28.7
Garret Anderson    225   75   28.1
Gary Matthews      225   75   28.1
Scott Thorman      225   75   28.1
Matt Kemp          225   75   28.1
Jay Bruce          225   75   28.1

I don't even want to analyze this, I just want to acknowledge that this post is truly what makes this the only site. 

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

[Eli]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

He probably looks much more respectable at even just 10 lbs lighter. And I don't think that kind of weight loss is out of the question.

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

[J. Walter Weatherman]

All that said, I think this pick is pretty clearly a "best available" situation.

And I think I'm fine looking at him in terms of his value as a future trade chip.

[PenFoe]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

He probably looks much more respectable at even just 10 lbs lighter. And I don't think that kind of weight loss is out of the question.

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

Eli isn't going to be happy unless the Cubs draft Mike Trout and Bryce Harper combined into one.

[Bort]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

He probably looks much more respectable at even just 10 lbs lighter. And I don't think that kind of weight loss is out of the question.

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

Eli isn't going to be happy unless the Cubs draft Mike Trout and Bryce Harper combined into one.

Bryke Harpout?

[Saul Goodman]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

I think he's proven he can handle 20 people ... which means it's time for a blog.

[Bort]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

I suppose he could trade Rizzo, but I suspect that's Jepstink's job.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

I suppose he could trade Rizzo, but I suspect that's Jepstink's job.

Yeah who does he think he is--Phil Nevin?

[J. Walter Weatherman]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

He probably looks much more respectable at even just 10 lbs lighter. And I don't think that kind of weight loss is out of the question.

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

Eli isn't going to be happy unless the Cubs draft Mike Trout and Bryce Harper combined into one.

Bryke Harpout?

Myce Trouper

[Bort]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

He probably looks much more respectable at even just 10 lbs lighter. And I don't think that kind of weight loss is out of the question.

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

Eli isn't going to be happy unless the Cubs draft Mike Trout and Bryce Harper combined into one.

Bryke Harpout?

Myce Trouper

That sounds like a band Pitchfork would give 6.3 stars to.

[Quality Start Machine]

DPD, but for a lot of guys, I'm assuming these BMIs are based on measurements from later in their careers and not when they were 23.

I'll happily settle for Carlos Lee or Nelson Cruz, but not many others on this list that were primarily OFs.

Kudos to Tank for some impressive analysis. Especially going through all that trouble for an audience of like 9 people.

As for the actual numbers, they aren't ... encouraging. But there's so much that can change, it seems premature to worry too much. He could move to first, get traded, trade Rizzo, lose 25 pounds, etc.

He probably looks much more respectable at even just 10 lbs lighter. And I don't think that kind of weight loss is out of the question.

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

Eli isn't going to be happy unless the Cubs draft Mike Trout and Bryce Harper combined into one.

Bryke Harpout?

Myce Trouper

That sounds like a band Pitchfork would give 6.3 stars to.

Causing you to sell all your Myce Trouper import CDs.

[ChuckD]

In fact, if he slims down 10 lbs while also growing an inch taller, he'd be the same listed weight/height as Mike Trout. And, what... you don't want the Cubs to draft Mike Trout?

That Mike Trout is 6'1" 230lbs is the most surprising thing I've heard in this entire draft.