Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[Chuck to Chuck]

I still have trouble wrapping my head around the idea that the Chicago Cubs...The Chicago Motherfucking Cubs...have been almost completely reconstructed with the goal of sustained success, and that goal is looking more and more in focus on a daily basis.

For the team in all of North American professional sports most associated with futility (rightfully so) to be this close to having the entire perception of the organization completely redefined is absolutely astonishing to me, in spite of seeing it all unfold with my own eyes.

In only 2 1/2 years.

[Saul Goodman]

Too much bullshit being tolerated in here.  WINNING IS SACRED, THE RICKETTSES ARE CHEAP, EPSTINK IS TERRIBLE

[ChuckD]

Meant to post this over the weekend about the trade. If you like baseball and reading things then you should spend the lousy $30 a year to subscribe to Joe Sheehan's newsletter which is always a fun read.

The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 6, No. 39
July 5, 2014

Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija and RHP Jason Hammel to Athletics for SS Addison Russell, OF Billy McKinney and RHP Dan Straily

Let's start with this: Hammel for Straily is a wash, for all intents and purposes. If you think that's ungenerous, think about what the reaction would have been three months ago if the A's had made that deal. Think about what Beane's reaction would have been had Jed Hoyer called him up with that offer. Hammel has outpitched Straily for the last three months, but Straily was better and more healthy last year. In 2012 Straily was more healthy, and comparable on a per-inning basis. Hammel hasn't thrown more innings than Straily since 2011, and just barely then. Whatever performance gap may exist between the two for the next 16 starts they'll make in 2014 is dwarfed by the control of Straily the Cubs will have, while Hammel hits the market looking for Matt Garza money.

That leaves Samardzija for the two prospects, which is a huge win for the Cubs. Huge. Even for a team lousy with hitting prospects, adding Russell has an impact. He's the best defender of the Russell/Javier Baez/Starlin Castro group and is 13 months younger than Baez is. Samardzija's great start to the season was a terrific story, but he's not a #1 starter, and this is the first time he's really looked like a #2. In  his first two seasons as a full-time Cubs starter, at ages 27 and 28, Samardzija was essentially league-average, posting a 97 ERA+. He showed good stuff, he struck out 24% of the batters he faced, he had a 3-1 K/BB, he averaged 6 1/3 innings per start. Because of his size, his stuff, his non-standard career path and the Cubs' handling of him -- he was a reliever as recently as 2011 -- there were reasons to think he had some upside from there. When he started the year with a 1.46 ERA -- and no pitcher-wins -- through ten starts, he was suddenly in the conversation for awards and All-Star Game starts and trade-deadline packages. Well, that ERA was as much about a low HR/FB -- two longballs, 93 fly balls -- as any change in Samardzija. The Cubs, though, have leveraged the best stretch of pitching of Samardzija's career into an asset much more likely to earn a ring with the Cubs. Trading Samardzija for a top-50 prospect and some baubles would have been a fairly good return; getting a top-ten prospect and a top-100 guy and a cost-controlled averageish starter is a coup. It's an absolute coup.

I may be an outlier in my evaluation of this deal, largely because I think I'm an outlier on the two key pieces -- higher on Russell than most, lower on Samardzija than most.

With Russell, the Cubs now have a farm system that hurts to look at. We'll see what the prospect mavens say, but they could have three of the top ten prospects in baseball in Russell, Baez and Kris Bryant, plus Albert Almora and Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber and, and, and.... It's a system that is both loaded at the top and deep, and if there's a concern about crowding at certain positions or being too hitter-heavy, well, these are not problems the way that word is usually used. The Cubs, as they sort out which players are going forward with them and which are not, are going to have some cost-controlled talent to trade. If Russell and Baez push aside Castro, well, Castro is signed through 2019 for a total cost of $44 million, with a $16 million option for 2020. You think you can't find a home for that? Castro is a durable shortstop who is growing into his power and headed for a career high in walks drawn, among other things.

wut

It's an expression.

Means they have tons. Overridden. 

Some might even say "infested."

Perhaps this will help?

it's not a Paul Rudd movie, but it's on TV a lot.

The lice hate the sugar.

[PenFoe]

Seriously, how many of these guys right now project into everyday Major Leaguers? Soler, Bryant, Baez, Russell for sure. Rizzo and Castro already are All-Stars. Arrieta and Straily have proven they can pitch every 5th day, and both have shown signs they can be at the front-end of the rotation someday. (Straily might be the real darkhorse of this trade). It's probably too early to know for certain about Schwarber or McKinney, but indications are good. Alacantra is the guy no one has talked about until this month. Plus, we haven't even mentioned 24-year-old Junior Lake (useful Major League reserve), 27-year-old Wellington Castillo, 27-year-old Travis Wood and 25-year-old Justin Grimm. And Mike Olt might turn out to be a dud, but he's 25, and probably could be a piece of a deal.

We can assume Luis Valbuena and Emilio Bonifacio, valuable and breathing Major Leaguers, can be traded for valuable talent as well.

You didn't even mention Almora.  

Also, some of them are a ways out, but Eloy, Gleyber, Jen-Ho, Hannemann and Zagunis are all major league hopefuls.

Other guys like Charcer Burks, Jeffrey Baez, Jake Stinnett, Chesny Young, all in play as well.

That doesn't even include the arms like Johnson, Underwood, Edwards, Zastryzny, Skulina and the 3 high school arms from this year's draft.

There are so, so many guys to be excited about right now.

Duane Underwood just named Midwest League Pitcher of the Week (Kane County)

Stats on the year:
56.2 IP, 16 ER, 4 HR, 40 K, 23 BB.  
2.54 ERA, 1.32 WHIP.

Would like to see more Ks, lower WHIP, less walks, but considering he's only 19 years old (way young for this league) - that's pretty damn promising.  

For reference, he was the Cubs 2nd round pick in 2012 (their 4th overall pick since they had 2 compensatory picks that year.)

[Eli]

Would like to see more Ks, lower WHIP, less walks, but considering he's only 19 years old (way young for this league)

"Way young" seems a bit extreme. He's pretty much right where he should be as a 19-year-old second-round pick in his first full year. That third column on BR is generally helpful, but it's skewed by all the roster-filler on teams.

[Bort]

I think he's way too low on Samardzija, but otherwise it's a good read. Especially the part about the Cubs being able to more easily "overpay" for a key FA or two because the core will be so cheap for a while.

I dunno. Is it even possible to be too low on Snork?

[Quality Start Machine]

Remember how there were no catchers in the organization?

Aside from SKOwarber, Mark Zagunis is treating pitching in the Northwest League with disdain.

[Yeti]

Air Is Mindy Al Can Tarra.

#Cube

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Air Is Mindy Al Can Tarra.

#Cube

Reportedly just for a couple days.

(I still came.)

[Slaky]

This is the best thread on the internet. The joyful positive reigns here.

Goddamn I am excited. I even took my in-laws for a tour of Wrigleyville today and didn't wanna barf looking at all the Cubs shit strewn about the area.

Never been more excited to watch a team play .370 baseball for 3 months.

[InternetApex]

Air Is Mindy Al Can Tarra.

#Cube

Reportedly just for a couple days.

(I still came.)

Maybe they can convince Darwin to get his side chick pregnant and take his time sorting out all his family issues. Like as much time as he wants. Or give him a half-bushel of apples on his bed and a sharp knife as a gift.

[Quality Start Machine]

Air Is Mindy Al Can Tarra.

#Cube

Reportedly just for a couple days.

(I still came.)

Maybe they can convince Darwin to get his side chick pregnant and take his time sorting out all his family issues. Like as much time as he wants. Or give him a half-bushel of apples on his bed and a sharp knife as a gift.

Send a Red Sox onesie as a baby gift.

[Chuck to Chuck]

Air Is Mindy Al Can Tarra.

#Cube

Reportedly just for a couple days.

(I still came.)

Maybe they can convince Darwin to get his side chick pregnant and take his time sorting out all his family issues. Like as much time as he wants. Or give him a half-bushel of apples on his bed and a sharp knife as a gift.

Barney's entitled to 12 weeks FMLA. Theo should make him take it.

[PenFoe]

Air Is Mindy Al Can Tarra.

#Cube

Al-KAHN-Trah

[PenFoe]

Air Is Mindy Al Can Tarra.

#Cube

DPD.

Starting today, batting 2nd.