Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[ChuckD]

Is there evidence one way or another on the effect of bringing up a prospect before they're ripe? Am I just repeating some old conventional wisdom about bringing a player up too soon that isn't really backed up by the facts?

There's really no way to test that. If a guy comes up and struggles, it might be evidence that he was called up prematurely. But, by definition, if he doesn't struggle, then it couldn't have been too soon.

So, really every prospect who was called up prior to some arbitrary age (which varies for each player) and has found success against MLB competition, is evidence against the argument.

[InternetApex]

Is there evidence one way or another on the effect of bringing up a prospect before they're ripe? Am I just repeating some old conventional wisdom about bringing a player up too soon that isn't really backed up by the facts?

There's really no way to test that. If a guy comes up and struggles, it might be evidence that he was called up prematurely. But, by definition, if he doesn't struggle, then it couldn't have been too soon.

So, really every prospect who was called up prior to some arbitrary age (which varies for each player) and has found success against MLB competition, is evidence against the argument.

Depends what you mean by "found success" though. You have to sustain that somewhat. Plenty of guys come up, get some hits then struggle to make adjustments.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Is there evidence one way or another on the effect of bringing up a prospect before they're ripe? Am I just repeating some old conventional wisdom about bringing a player up too soon that isn't really backed up by the facts?

There's really no way to test that. If a guy comes up and struggles, it might be evidence that he was called up prematurely. But, by definition, if he doesn't struggle, then it couldn't have been too soon.

So, really every prospect who was called up prior to some arbitrary age (which varies for each player) and has found success against MLB competition, is evidence against the argument.

Depends what you mean by "found success" though. You have to sustain that somewhat. Plenty of guys come up, get some hits then struggle to make adjustments.

That's beside ChuckD's point. However you choose to define "success", some guys will achieve it when they come up, some guys won't.

The point is that there's not really any good way to gauge the difference between that "success" or "failure" (again, however you choose to define these) and what that same player would have done had you chosen to bring them up earlier or later.

Until, that is, we finally get our long-dreamt-of 40-Theriot roster. In which case we could separate our Theriots out into various experimental and control groups and finally get some hard data all up on our dicks.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I always had the nagging suspicion that Shawon Dunston was called up too soon but akin to Chuck D.'s point, it's not easy to demonstrate this. I couldn't tell you if he would have been as equally a serviceable player, who for about a 3 year period may have been one of the top 5 shortstops in the NL, if the Cubs waited a year to call him up, or much, much better.   It's likely that an extra year in the minors would've done little to help him from so aggressively chasing every stinkin' goddamn breaking ball in the dirt, but there also was little reason--at the time--to have called him up in 1985 other than the fact that Larry Bowa was an aging, annoying asshole who couldn't hit dick.

I do think there could be a psychological aspect to it which is even  more nebulous to factor in.  I'll remain convinced that the Cubs did Corey Patterson no favors by bringing him up after a regressive season at West Tennessee in 2000 and doing so merely  provided him a sense of entitlement and a disincentive to work on his own development.

[InternetApex]

I always had the nagging suspicion that Shawon Dunston was called up too soon but akin to Chuck D.'s point, it's not easy to demonstrate this. I couldn't tell you if he would have been as equally a serviceable player, who for about a 3 year period may have been one of the top 5 shortstops in the NL, if the Cubs waited a year to call him up, or much, much better.   It's likely that an extra year in the minors would've done little to help him from so aggressively chasing every stinkin' goddamn breaking ball in the dirt, but there also was little reason--at the time--to have called him up in 1985 other than the fact that Larry Bowa was an aging, annoying asshole who couldn't hit dick.

I do think there could be a psychological aspect to it which is even  more nebulous to factor in.  I'll remain convinced that the Cubs did Corey Patterson no favors by bringing him up after a regressive season at West Tennessee in 2000 and doing so merely  provided him a sense of entitlement and a disincentive to work on his own development.

At least Corey got to boink Gail Fischer before she ballooned up to two spins.

[Eli]

I do think there could be a psychological aspect to it which is even  more nebulous to factor in.  I'll remain convinced that the Cubs did Corey Patterson no favors by bringing him up after a regressive season at West Tennessee in 2000 and doing so merely  provided him a sense of entitlement and a disincentive to work on his own development.

There was that, plus Dusty's repeated attempts to turn him into Juan Pierre.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

I do think there could be a psychological aspect to it which is even  more nebulous to factor in.  I'll remain convinced that the Cubs did Corey Patterson no favors by bringing him up after a regressive season at West Tennessee in 2000 and doing so merely  provided him a sense of entitlement and a disincentive to work on his own development.

There was that, plus Dusty's repeated attempts to turn him into Juan Pierre.

Didn't help but I go back further to 2000 when Patterson was coming off a solid year at Lansing in '99 and then tore up the AFL league in the subsequent Fall.  He performed very well in Mesa with the big club in 2000 Spring Training and all of the quotes by Don Baylor only seemed to blow him up further.  Baylor had a right to be optimistic because up until that point Patterson had looked solid at every stop.  But then Patterson regresssed at West Tennesse which should have been a sign to the organization to slow things down.  Instead, they couldn't let go of what they saw in the Spring and called him up anyway. Part of me thinks the MacPhail braintrust was so desperate to prove their farm system was working (by then they had only produced Kerry Wood in 5+ years and had already traded away Jon Garland for the sack of shit known as Matt Karchner) that they ignored the red flag that his first full season at AA had produced.  That's where I suggest that Patterson had no incentive to work on his development, because it semed the message they were giving him was that he was going to be plying his trade in the bigs regardless of how he performed in the lower levels.

I think an organization that is rich in talent, which the Cubs (until now) had not been since the late 1980's, doesn't run into these problems.  But in the case of the Cubs, so much stock was put in to the scarcity of blue chip talent that they did have (remember that Patterson and Josh Hamilton were ranked #1 and #2 by Baseball America...or maybe it was #2, #1--either way, Patterson graced the cover that year prior to the 2001 season) that they ignored all the warning signs, threw caution to the wind and just hoped for the best.

Dusty merely dumped more dirt on his career.  

Good times.

[BH]

I do think there could be a psychological aspect to it which is even  more nebulous to factor in.  I'll remain convinced that the Cubs did Corey Patterson no favors by bringing him up after a regressive season at West Tennessee in 2000 and doing so merely  provided him a sense of entitlement and a disincentive to work on his own development.

There was that, plus Dusty's repeated attempts to turn him into Juan Pierre.

Didn't help but I go back further to 2000 when Patterson was coming off a solid year at Lansing in '99 and then tore up the AFL league in the subsequent Fall.  He performed very well in Mesa with the big club in 2000 Spring Training and all of the quotes by Don Baylor only seemed to blow him up further.  Baylor had a right to be optimistic because up until that point Patterson had looked solid at every stop.  But then Patterson regresssed at West Tennesse which should have been a sign to the organization to slow things down.  Instead, they couldn't let go of what they saw in the Spring and called him up anyway. Part of me thinks the MacPhail braintrust was so desperate to prove their farm system was working (by then they had only produced Kerry Wood in 5+ years and had already traded away Jon Garland for the sack of shit known as Matt Karchner) that they ignored the red flag that his first full season at AA had produced.  That's where I suggest that Patterson had no incentive to work on his development, because it semed the message they were giving him was that he was going to be plying his trade in the bigs regardless of how he performed in the lower levels.

I think an organization that is rich in talent, which the Cubs (until now) had not been since the late 1980's, doesn't run into these problems.  But in the case of the Cubs, so much stock was put in to the scarcity of blue chip talent that they did have (remember that Patterson and Josh Hamilton were ranked #1 and #2 by Baseball America...or maybe it was #2, #1--either way, Patterson graced the cover that year prior to the 2001 season) that they ignored all the warning signs, threw caution to the wind and just hoped for the best.

Dusty merely dumped more dirt on his career.  

Good times.

Prospects never work out.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

(remember that Patterson and Josh Hamilton were ranked #1 and #2 by Baseball America...or maybe it was #2, #1--either way, Patterson graced the cover that year prior to the 2001 season)

Nice choice, Jim.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Seemed

[PenFoe]

Pen is going to come yell at me now.

Stupid all-day meetings.
I missed a great chance here. 

Now the moment is gone.

[Quality Start Machine]

I hate this season already.

It's going to be very bad. I suppose we should find something else to do. Problem is I really like watching baseball. How about the Jeter farewell circlejerk? In no way will that be horrible.

Good God. I thought Rivera's was beat into the ground. This year will basically be a Forkjoke.

Anyone who was a Yankee captain and didn't die tragically pretty much deserves accolades.

[PenFoe]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night. 

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night. 

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

[PenFoe]

Baseball America's top 100 prospects released last night. 

5. Baez
8. Bryant
28. Edwards
36. Almora
41. Soler
87. Pierce Johnson
100. Alcantara

Hoping history doesn't repeat itself...

2. Corey Patterson
17.  Juan Cruz
22. Hee Seop Choi
37.  Ben Christiansen
68.  Carlos Zambrano
73. Luis Montanez

You people have fucking problems.