Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[Slaky]

So the Cubs massacred the Cardinals tonight. Which leads me here:

The Cubs expected win loss record is 18-19. They are 13-24. They have given up 4 more runs than they've scored all season.

What in the hell

[Yeti]

So the Cubs massacred the Cardinals tonight. Which leads me here:

The Cubs expected win loss record is 18-19. They are 13-24. They have given up 4 more runs than they've scored all season.

What in the hell

I'd be curious to see what the expected W-L was before this game because, in my mind, the Cubs just doubled their season totals runs in this game

[Eli]

So the Cubs massacred the Cardinals tonight. Which leads me here:

The Cubs expected win loss record is 18-19. They are 13-24. They have given up 4 more runs than they've scored all season.

What in the hell

They've scored 19% of their runs for this season in two games -- last night and Thursday against the Pirates (12).

In between those offensive outbursts, they scored 4 runs in 3 games.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

So the Cubs massacred the Cardinals tonight. Which leads me here:

The Cubs expected win loss record is 18-19. They are 13-24. They have given up 4 more runs than they've scored all season.

What in the hell

They've scored 19% of their runs for this season in two games -- last night and Thursday against the Pirates White Sox (12).

In between those offensive outbursts, they scored 4 runs in 3 games.

Most they've scored against the Pirates is 7.

[Brownie]

So the Cubs massacred the Cardinals tonight. Which leads me here:

The Cubs expected win loss record is 18-19. They are 13-24. They have given up 4 more runs than they've scored all season.

What in the hell

They've scored 19% of their runs for this season in two games -- last night and Thursday against the Pirates (12).

In between those offensive outbursts, they scored 4 runs in 3 games.

Pissburgh, thankfully, is no Bridgeport.

Question: golf handicaps adjust scores, throwing out scores larger than triple bogeys, etc. When computing expected W-L, shouldn't there be an allowance for blowouts? Those last 6 runs were not nearly as contested as the first 11.

[Eli]

So the Cubs massacred the Cardinals tonight. Which leads me here:

The Cubs expected win loss record is 18-19. They are 13-24. They have given up 4 more runs than they've scored all season.

What in the hell

They've scored 19% of their runs for this season in two games -- last night and Thursday against the Pirates (12).

In between those offensive outbursts, they scored 4 runs in 3 games.

Pissburgh, thankfully, is no Bridgeport.

Question: golf handicaps adjust scores, throwing out scores larger than triple bogeys, etc. When computing expected W-L, shouldn't there be an allowance for blowouts? Those last 6 runs were not nearly as contested as the first 11.

You usually don't need to because it tends to normalize over the course of an entire season. After 37 games, expected W-L is pretty useless. I'm sure by September it'll more accurately reflect how bad they are.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

The NL Central per the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings as of today:

        Actual          First order         Second order        Third order
       W%     W-L      W%       W-L        W%       W-L        W%       W-L
CIN   0.472   17-19   0.534   19.2-16.8   0.540   19.4-16.6   0.540   19.4-16.6
MIL   0.632   24-14   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.520   19.8-18.2
STL   0.487   19-20   0.509   19.9-19.1   0.506   19.7-19.3   0.498   19.4-19.6
CHC   0.351   13-24   0.488   18.1-18.9   0.484   17.9-19.1   0.477   17.6-19.4
PIT   0.432   16-21   0.464   17.2-19.8   0.446   16.5-20.5   0.460   17.0-20.0

Ranked by Third Order Winning Percentage. (First order is their Pythagorean percentage based on actual runs scored/allowed, second order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats, third order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats with adjustments for strength of opponents.)

Overall, the Cubs rank 19th in all of MLB in the third order projection, just behind Tampa and ahead of the Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Rangers, Dbacks, Mets, Padres, Orioles, Phillies and Astros.

[Yeti]

The NL Central per the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings as of today:

        Actual          First order         Second order        Third order
       W%     W-L      W%       W-L        W%       W-L        W%       W-L
CIN   0.472   17-19   0.534   19.2-16.8   0.540   19.4-16.6   0.540   19.4-16.6
MIL   0.632   24-14   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.520   19.8-18.2
STL   0.487   19-20   0.509   19.9-19.1   0.506   19.7-19.3   0.498   19.4-19.6
CHC   0.351   13-24   0.488   18.1-18.9   0.484   17.9-19.1   0.477   17.6-19.4
PIT   0.432   16-21   0.464   17.2-19.8   0.446   16.5-20.5   0.460   17.0-20.0

Ranked by Third Order Winning Percentage. (First order is their Pythagorean percentage based on actual runs scored/allowed, second order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats, third order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats with adjustments for strength of opponents.)

Overall, the Cubs rank 19th in all of MLB in the third order projection, just behind Tampa and ahead of the Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Rangers, Dbacks, Mets, Padres, Orioles, Phillies and Astros.

So, yay?

[J. Walter Weatherman]

The NL Central per the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings as of today:

        Actual          First order         Second order        Third order
       W%     W-L      W%       W-L        W%       W-L        W%       W-L
CIN   0.472   17-19   0.534   19.2-16.8   0.540   19.4-16.6   0.540   19.4-16.6
MIL   0.632   24-14   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.520   19.8-18.2
STL   0.487   19-20   0.509   19.9-19.1   0.506   19.7-19.3   0.498   19.4-19.6
CHC   0.351   13-24   0.488   18.1-18.9   0.484   17.9-19.1   0.477   17.6-19.4
PIT   0.432   16-21   0.464   17.2-19.8   0.446   16.5-20.5   0.460   17.0-20.0

Ranked by Third Order Winning Percentage. (First order is their Pythagorean percentage based on actual runs scored/allowed, second order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats, third order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats with adjustments for strength of opponents.)

Overall, the Cubs rank 19th in all of MLB in the third order projection, just behind Tampa and ahead of the Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Rangers, Dbacks, Mets, Padres, Orioles, Phillies and Astros.

So, yay?

If this keeps up, they'll get a higher draft pick than they deserve?

[Bort]

The NL Central per the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings as of today:

        Actual          First order         Second order        Third order
       W%     W-L      W%       W-L        W%       W-L        W%       W-L
CIN   0.472   17-19   0.534   19.2-16.8   0.540   19.4-16.6   0.540   19.4-16.6
MIL   0.632   24-14   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.520   19.8-18.2
STL   0.487   19-20   0.509   19.9-19.1   0.506   19.7-19.3   0.498   19.4-19.6
CHC   0.351   13-24   0.488   18.1-18.9   0.484   17.9-19.1   0.477   17.6-19.4
PIT   0.432   16-21   0.464   17.2-19.8   0.446   16.5-20.5   0.460   17.0-20.0

Ranked by Third Order Winning Percentage. (First order is their Pythagorean percentage based on actual runs scored/allowed, second order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats, third order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats with adjustments for strength of opponents.)

Overall, the Cubs rank 19th in all of MLB in the third order projection, just behind Tampa and ahead of the Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Rangers, Dbacks, Mets, Padres, Orioles, Phillies and Astros.

So, yay?

If this keeps up, they'll get a higher draft pick than they deserve?

Prospects? Bah. They never pan out.

[Eli]

The NL Central per the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings as of today:

        Actual          First order         Second order        Third order
       W%     W-L      W%       W-L        W%       W-L        W%       W-L
CIN   0.472   17-19   0.534   19.2-16.8   0.540   19.4-16.6   0.540   19.4-16.6
MIL   0.632   24-14   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.520   19.8-18.2
STL   0.487   19-20   0.509   19.9-19.1   0.506   19.7-19.3   0.498   19.4-19.6
CHC   0.351   13-24   0.488   18.1-18.9   0.484   17.9-19.1   0.477   17.6-19.4
PIT   0.432   16-21   0.464   17.2-19.8   0.446   16.5-20.5   0.460   17.0-20.0

Ranked by Third Order Winning Percentage. (First order is their Pythagorean percentage based on actual runs scored/allowed, second order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats, third order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats with adjustments for strength of opponents.)

Overall, the Cubs rank 19th in all of MLB in the third order projection, just behind Tampa and ahead of the Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Rangers, Dbacks, Mets, Padres, Orioles, Phillies and Astros.

So, yay?

If this keeps up, they'll get a higher draft pick than they deserve?

Prospects? Bah. They never pan out.

I know this is a throwaway line to make fun of Al, but it's technically true that most prospects don't pan out.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

The NL Central per the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings as of today:

        Actual          First order         Second order        Third order
       W%     W-L      W%       W-L        W%       W-L        W%       W-L
CIN   0.472   17-19   0.534   19.2-16.8   0.540   19.4-16.6   0.540   19.4-16.6
MIL   0.632   24-14   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.520   19.8-18.2
STL   0.487   19-20   0.509   19.9-19.1   0.506   19.7-19.3   0.498   19.4-19.6
CHC   0.351   13-24   0.488   18.1-18.9   0.484   17.9-19.1   0.477   17.6-19.4
PIT   0.432   16-21   0.464   17.2-19.8   0.446   16.5-20.5   0.460   17.0-20.0

Ranked by Third Order Winning Percentage. (First order is their Pythagorean percentage based on actual runs scored/allowed, second order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats, third order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats with adjustments for strength of opponents.)

Overall, the Cubs rank 19th in all of MLB in the third order projection, just behind Tampa and ahead of the Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Rangers, Dbacks, Mets, Padres, Orioles, Phillies and Astros.

So, yay?

If this keeps up, they'll get a higher draft pick than they deserve?

Prospects? Bah. They never pan out.

I know this is a throwaway line to make fun of Al, but it's technically true that most prospects don't pan out.

Probably depends on how you define "pan out". Most top prospects certainly don't reach their projected ceilings. But that's the nature of "ceilings", and that doesn't mean they never contribute anything at the major league level.

[Slaky]

The NL Central per the Baseball Prospectus Adjusted Standings as of today:

        Actual          First order         Second order        Third order
       W%     W-L      W%       W-L        W%       W-L        W%       W-L
CIN   0.472   17-19   0.534   19.2-16.8   0.540   19.4-16.6   0.540   19.4-16.6
MIL   0.632   24-14   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.540   20.5-17.5   0.520   19.8-18.2
STL   0.487   19-20   0.509   19.9-19.1   0.506   19.7-19.3   0.498   19.4-19.6
CHC   0.351   13-24   0.488   18.1-18.9   0.484   17.9-19.1   0.477   17.6-19.4
PIT   0.432   16-21   0.464   17.2-19.8   0.446   16.5-20.5   0.460   17.0-20.0

Ranked by Third Order Winning Percentage. (First order is their Pythagorean percentage based on actual runs scored/allowed, second order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats, third order their Pythagorean percentage based on underlying stats with adjustments for strength of opponents.)

Overall, the Cubs rank 19th in all of MLB in the third order projection, just behind Tampa and ahead of the Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Royals, Rangers, Dbacks, Mets, Padres, Orioles, Phillies and Astros.

So, yay?

If this keeps up, they'll get a higher draft pick than they deserve?

I don't think it will when the trade 2/5ths of the rotation. Even if guys like Hendricks and Wada show up and pitch well.

Regardless, I think what it tells me (irrespective of fears of a lower draft pick) is that they aren't as bad as their record AND they really might be a couple of those Big Four guys away from competing on a daily basis.

I don't think it's unfair to suggest that what we're seeing from Castro and Rizzo IS what they are. Do you guys?

[Quality Start Machine]

Cubs' minor league records:

Boise (Northwest League) 41-35, 6GB
Kane County (Midwest League) 26-11. 5.5 GA
Daytona (Florida League) 10-24 16GB
Tennessee (Southern League) 22-16 4GB
Iowa (Pacific Coast League)  20-15 1GA

So with the exception of Daytona (which is essentially the same bunch of guys who posted a losing record in Kane County last season), the organization is winning at every level. At some point this will start to manifest itself at the big league level, right?

[Eli]

At some point this will start to manifest itself at the big league level, right?

Not really. Minor league team records have basically zero correlation/projection to big-league team success. Different teams promote players differently, guys are working on certain skills at any given time and ignoring others, certain teams don't even bother with situational strategy to win games, etc. For most teams, it's about developing individual guys under the guise of a team game.