Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[J. Walter Weatherman]

It's still really early.

It's ... earlyish. But not "really early." 118 plate apperances is enough to have some statistical meaning.

I'm still betting on an injury and a short DL stint at some point if this keeps up.

His first 118 plate appearances in AAA at 21 years old. It's still early.

[PenFoe]

It's still really early.

It's ... earlyish. But not "really early." 118 plate apperances is enough to have some statistical meaning.

I'm still betting on an injury and a short DL stint at some point if this keeps up.

His first 118 plate appearances in AAA at 21 years old. It's still early.

A few things on this:

1. It's way, way early.
2. He's probably hurt.
3. Even worst case scenario, that he's overmatched and he's never going to figure this out, the beauty of this whole thing is that, for the first time the entire hopes don't seem to be riding on one guy (See Patterson, Pie) and they can afford for some of these guys to not pan out (as they no doubt will.) 

But fuck, I hope it's not Baez.

[Slaky]

Without mocking for real, I think it's totally normal to be concerned about Baez. I wish he was doing better.

I think he will start doing better at some point because even if he's not Cabrera or whatever, he's not as bad as this, either.

Will he get hot enough to make his overall numbers look good by the end of it all? Hope so.

[Eli]

3. Even worst case scenario, that he's overmatched and he's never going to figure this out, the beauty of this whole thing is that, for the first time the entire hopes don't seem to be riding on one guy (See Patterson, Pie) and they can afford for some of these guys to not pan out (as they no doubt will.) 

I feel like this is where we disagree. No, they haven't pinned their hopes on one guy (I don't think the previous regime did either). I just don't think their margin for error is as high as you do. There are some guys in the minors who may turn into nice, cost-effective players early in their career. But they really only have 3-4 guys with truly elite potential. And given how barren the current major-league roster is, they pretty much need them all to pan out on some level. Having just 1-2 of those guys pan out isn't going to be enough if they stick to this all-homegrown approach for a few more years.

The easiest path to them competing is for both Baez and Bryant to become 6-win monsters because that would cover up a lot of flaws in the system. That's why Baez's start is disappointing.

Again, it's unreasonable to declare Baez a bust after this start. But it's also unreasonable to just pretend it's not at least a little bit concerning. There are shades of gray here -- not everyone has to be completely divided into either the Sunshine and Lollipops Stockholm Syndrome camp or my alleged Chicken Little Doom and Gloom camp.

[Quality Start Machine]

If one of the "Core Four" is going to flame out, the best-case scenario is for it to be the guy who plays the same position as Starlin Castro.

[Slaky]

If one of the "Core Four" is going to flame out, the best-case scenario is for it to be the guy who plays the same position as Starlin Castro.

I can't agree with this at all. If Baez flames out it's really fucking bad.

[Eli]

If one of the "Core Four" is going to flame out, the best-case scenario is for it to be the guy who plays the same position as Starlin Castro.

I can't agree with this at all. If Baez flames out it's really fucking bad.

This. If I'm choosing a prospect to flame out, it's not going to be their highest-ranked, highest-ceiling guy. It'd probably have to be Soler, because it's much easier to find a corner OF than a guy who could hit 40 homers playing middle infield.

Again, if we're choosing who we want to fail, or whatever is happening here.

[InternetApex]

If one of the "Core Four" is going to flame out, the best-case scenario is for it to be the guy who plays the same position as Starlin Castro.

I can't agree with this at all. If Baez flames out it's really fucking bad.

He's not flaming out. He's having a bad two months. Fucking chill. Also, if one of the "Core Four" is going to flame out, the best-case scenario is for it to be the guy who was drafted by the Hendry regime.

[R-V]

3. Even worst case scenario, that he's overmatched and he's never going to figure this out, the beauty of this whole thing is that, for the first time the entire hopes don't seem to be riding on one guy (See Patterson, Pie) and they can afford for some of these guys to not pan out (as they no doubt will.) 

I feel like this is where we disagree. No, they haven't pinned their hopes on one guy (I don't think the previous regime did either). I just don't think their margin for error is as high as you do. There are some guys in the minors who may turn into nice, cost-effective players early in their career. But they really only have 3-4 guys with truly elite potential. And given how barren the current major-league roster is, they pretty much need them all to pan out on some level. Having just 1-2 of those guys pan out isn't going to be enough if they stick to this all-homegrown approach for a few more years.

The easiest path to them competing is for both Baez and Bryant to become 6-win monsters because that would cover up a lot of flaws in the system. That's why Baez's start is disappointing.

Again, it's unreasonable to declare Baez a bust after this start. But it's also unreasonable to just pretend it's not at least a little bit concerning. There are shades of gray here -- not everyone has to be completely divided into either the Sunshine and Lollipops Stockholm Syndrome camp or my alleged Chicken Little Doom and Gloom camp.

I'm basically with you on this - the flip side of your argument though is it's possible to have a very good team without having multiple 6-ish win monsters.

It's a small sample, but here are last year's playoff teams and the number of studs on each team per Fangraphs (I used an arbitrary cutoff of 5 WAR):

Red Sox (3) - Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia
Cardinals (3) - Carpenter, Molina, Wainwright
A's (1) - Donaldson (!)
Braves (0)
Pirates (1) - McCutchen
Tigers (4) - Cabrera, Scherzer, Anibal, Verlander
Rays (2) - Longoria, Zobrist
Dodgers (3) - Kershaw, Uribe (!), Hanley
Indians (0)
Reds (2) - Votto, Choo

The Orioles (Davis & Machado) and Rangers (Beltre & Darvish) also had two 5+ WAR players, but didn't make the playoffs. So there were 8 teams last year that had two or more studs and 6 of them made the playoffs - so if you can get two of those guys, you're right that it's a good recipe for success.

But 4 of the 10 playoff teams had 1 or fewer studs worth 5+ WAR. It would require a deeper dive into history and maybe last year was an outlier, but it at least demonstrates that it's possible to build a playoff team with one stud and a whole bunch of the nice, cost-effective players 2-to-4ish WAR players that you described (Alcantara? Hendricks? Vizcaino?). And if you've got just 2 studs you've got a damn good shot at being one of the best teams in the league.

[Eli]

Also, if one of the "Core Four" is going to flame out, the best-case scenario is for it to be the guy who was drafted by the Hendry regime.

What does that have to do with anything?

[R-V]

By the way here's the list of Cubs 5+ WAR players in the last 10 years:

2009: Derecles
2007: Adolpho (FYC)
2005: Derecles
2004: Moises

That's it.

2004 Korey (FYC), 2008 Dempster and 2011 Garza just missed the cut.

[Eli]

By the way here's the list of Cubs 5+ WAR players in the last 10 years:

2009: Derecles
2007: Adolpho (FYC)
2005: Derecles
2004: Moises

That's it.

2004 Korey (FYC), 2008 Dempster and 2011 Garza just missed the cut.

That's all good stuff you pulled. My larger point still stands (with which you agree!), and I probably should have been more selective about just throwing the 5 WAR number out there.

[R-V]

By the way here's the list of Cubs 5+ WAR players in the last 10 years:

2009: Derecles
2007: Adolpho (FYC)
2005: Derecles
2004: Moises

That's it.

2004 Korey (FYC), 2008 Dempster and 2011 Garza just missed the cut.

That's all good stuff you pulled. My larger point still stands (with which you agree!), and I probably should have been more selective about just throwing the 5 WAR number out there.

So we're all in agreement then - Baez is going to pull his head out of his ass post-haste so we can stop stressing about it. And maybe for good measure Soler could play 50 games in a row without getting hurt.

[SKO]

If one of the Core Four was going to flame out I'd really prefer it not be the one that was supposed to be the closest to big league ready. But that's just me.

[PenFoe]

If one of the Core Four was going to flame out I'd really prefer it not be the one that was supposed to be the closest to big league ready. But that's just me.

That's Bryant, and he's fucking awesome.