Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[Quality Start Machine]

Couldn't find a link that didn't involve a paywall, but Keith Law has 4 Cubs in the top 100 prospects - Bryant (1), Russell (4), Soler (14), SKOwarber (90).

Yesterday he anointed the Cubs as the best farm system in baseball.

And they get one more year with a high pick and plenty of dough-per-slot.

Boner.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Couldn't find a link that didn't involve a paywall, but Keith Law has 4 Cubs in the top 100 prospects - Bryant (1), Russell (4), Soler (14), SKOwarber (90).

Yesterday he anointed the Cubs as the best farm system in baseball.

And they get one more year with a high pick and plenty of dough-per-slot.

Boner.

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/espn-cubs-top-farm-system-major-league-baseball

ESPN prospect Insider Keith Law has ranked the Cubs as the top farm system in Major League Baseball.

This shouldn't come as much of a surprise after the Addison Russell trade.

The July 4 blockbuster deal gave the Cubs two of the surefire Top 10 prospects in the game (Russell and Kris Bryant), with guys like Javier Baez and Arismendy Alcantara graduating off prospect lists upon their respective promotions to the big leagues.

Here is Law's analysis:

Take a moment to recover from your surprise ... The past 12 months have seemed more like a coronation for the Cubs than one for the teams that actually played in the World Series. The hype around their system is justified by the talent in it, with the strongest collection of top-shelf hitting prospects I can remember since I started working in baseball. They have someone coming at just about every position other than catcher and first base, and most of them fare well both in traditional evaluation and in analysis of their performance to date.

The Cubs' draft strategy under the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime has been to grab a polished hitter in the first round and load up on arms later. That, along with the trade of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel that netted two more top hitting prospects, has produced a system that's full of hitting prospects but still a bit light on the pitching side. The first wave of bats reached the majors in the middle of 2014, with more coming this year, but there won't be enough at-bats for Javier Baez and Jorge Soler and Arismendy Alcantara and Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber and Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo ... and that's not even everyone who might end up pushing for playing time. The Cubs are in prime position to flip a young hitter for a pitcher or even to swing a bigger deal, especially if they want to try to set themselves up to win the NL Central in 2016. There are young starting pitching prospects here to like, led by 20-year-old Duane Underwood, but they're all a few years away.

Law doesn't even mention prospects like Albert Almora, Pierce Johnson or C.J. Edwards (though he does discuss the lack of high-profile pitching prospects in the system), let alone young guys like Gleyber Torres, Eloy Jimenez and Jen-Ho Tseng at the lower levels.

The Minnesota Twins were second, Houston Astros third, New York Mets fourth and Boston Red Sox fifth on Law's rankings.

Among other NL Central foes, the Pittsburgh Pirates are seventh, St. Louis Cardinals 13th, Cincinnati Reds 17th and Milwaukee Brewers 28th.

The White Sox came in at No. 12.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Via Morphbook, Arguello summarizes Law...

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2015/01/keith-law-ranks-4-cubs-in-top-100-3-in-top-14-plus-some-of-my-own-thoughts-on-schwarber-as-a-catcher/

Kris Bryant is the number one prospect and while some here have criticized Law for being inflexible, he has come around a great deal on the slugging 3B.  His doubts centered around Bryant's lack of elite bat speed but now feels he makes up for it with his good eye and short swing.  Law projects big OBP and HR numbers and that Bryant should be an MVP candidate.

Personally,  I've seen seen Bryant turn around 97 mph fastballs in Iowa, so I really have no doubts about his ability to hit any one's velocity at this point.

As for defense, like the people we've spoken to, Law tbinks he'll be fine at 3B but may be even better in the OF.

Addison Russell is at #4 with Law calling him a true SS, downplaying his lack of speed because he compensates with good footwork and good hands.  He also believes he has one of the better hit tools in the minor leagues, capable of being a .300 hitter with double digit HRs.

To his credit, Law has never wavered very much on Jorge Soler,  He has been a big fan from day one, effusive about his quick hands and "beautiful" rotational swing.  He should generate middle of the order power with a solid OBP.  Defensively he needs some work but the tools are there, most notably his strong arm.

Last on the list is Kyle Schwarber, who sneaks in at #90, primarily because Law believes he has little chance to stick at catcher but now seems to feel that LF is likely.  Schwarber should combine great plate discipline with a plus hit tool and plus power.

My take on Schwarber's ability to catch is different.  For one, Schwarber has very little experience and had inadequate coaching as an amateur.  Given his strong makeup and work ethic, we know he will work hard to be an adequate receiver and thrower, with his good pop times already looking like they can compensate for what appears to be average arm strength.

But that is only half the story.  I believe the parameters for what teams look for in a catcher is evolving.  Where once a catcher with Welington Castillo's ability to block pitches combined with a strong arm to control the running games, what is often referred to as "catch and throw" type catchers was the standard defensively, the ideal catcher now seems to center more around framing, pitch-calling, and the ability to handle a pitching staff.  Schwarber has the strong personality to lead a staff and the aptitude to learn framing and pitch-calling, both of which are teachable skills.  My feeling is if he can at least be an adequate receiver and thrower, he can make up for it with his bat and the other skills mentioned here.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Quotes...

http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/prospect-rankings-espns-keith-law-thinks-kris-bryant-no-1

Kris Bryant

Everyone is aware of Bryant by now, after his pro baseball-leading 43 home runs and a .325/.438/.661 line across two levels in his first full year in the minors. Bryant is the best prospect in baseball for 2015, a true middle-of-the-order bat who should be in the Cubs' Opening Day lineup for the next six-plus seasons.

Bryant was drafted late out of high school despite showing first-round abilities, matured quickly once he began playing at the University of San Diego and landed as the No. 2 pick in the 2013 draft. After he tore through the low levels of the minors that summer, the Cubs pushed him to Double-A to start the 2014 season and he proceeded to demolish the level in half a season before a promotion to Triple-A that saw him nearly repeat the performance against older competition.

Bryant's swing is very balanced, with a wide setup and good use of his lower half to generate power. While there were concerns when he was an amateur that his bat speed might not catch up to major league velocity, he really has had no problem with better stuff in the pros, probably because his eye is so good and his swing is very short from load to contact. He's a good enough athlete to be able to handle third base, although he'd probably be better defensively in right field with his plus arm and fewer quick-reaction plays to challenge him. Wherever he ends up, he has 30-homer, .400 OBP potential, and should challenge for MVP awards once he has a few years in the majors.

Addison Russell

His performance left behind in much of the publicity around more famous Cubs prospects, Russell continued to rake in 2014 once he recovered from an early-season hamstring tear, and he kept right on producing after he was the big piece going to Chicago in the Jeff Samardzija trade.

Russell is a true shortstop with one of the best pure hit tools in the minors, both of which are a function of his outstanding hands, which are strong enough to produce hard contact yet smooth enough that he makes difficult plays look easy at short, whether it's a tough ground ball or a quick transfer on a 4-6-3 double-play turn. His swing did get a little longer in 2014, producing more power but also more ground ball contact, as he would get on top of balls he didn't square up. Russell always will face questions about his position because he's not a runner, but his footwork is more than adequate, and he has the hands and arm to be above-average there. Shortstops with the potential to hit .300-plus with double-digit homers are rare commodities -- Troy Tulowitzki was the only major leaguer to do it in 2014 -- which makes Russell's skill set extremely valuable.

[J. Walter Weatherman]

Continued...

Jorge Soler

After a year and a half of good performance interrupted by numerous injuries that left him struggling to stay on the field, Soler reached the majors at the end of August and set expectations at an impossible level at least initially, going 10 for his first 19 with three bombs across five games. He scuffled the rest of the way as pitchers took advantage of his overaggressive approach, but the explosive bat speed and plus-plus raw power will still be enough to make him a star.

Soler has gotten much stronger since he first signed a nine-year, $30 million contract with the Cubs in 2012, retaining much of his athleticism but losing some running speed as he bulked up. He always had enormous power thanks to very rapid hand acceleration and a beautiful, rotational swing with long extension through contact. He has a right fielder's arm and the ability to be an average or better defender there, but for now his routes are a bit suspect and he'll need more work out there to avoid being the new Domonic Brown. Soler wasn't patient in the majors, but he had been so in the minors, and I expect that skill to return as he gains experience in the majors and stops trying to recreate what he did in those first five games. He projects as a 25-30 homer guy who hits .270-280 with a solid OBP and, we hope, average defense, which would make him maybe the Cubs' third- or fourth-best hitter in their suddenly loaded lineup.

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber was the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft as a power-hitting catcher from Indiana University, then went and destroyed three different leagues after signing, ending the year in high-A just a few months out of college. Schwarber has very little chance to catch in the majors, as he's a poor receiver and very muscular for the position, but his bat should make him a regular at another position -- possibly first base, but most likely left field.

He's got a chance to end up with a plus hit tool and plus power, showing much better plate discipline this summer than he did as an amateur, although his front side can get soft and he can be vulnerable to soft stuff away because his typical swing is so hard. If he hits .280 or so with a strong OBP and 25 to 30 homers, he'll be a good everyday player even if he ends up a bad left fielder, and the Cubs certainly believe he has a chance to exceed even those marks.

[SKO]

This season can go ahead and start now.

[Bort]

This season can go ahead and start now.

Megadittoes, Rush.

[thehawk]

The tenth game ofthis season can go ahead and start now.

Megadittoes, Rush.

Bryant'd but absolutely agree.  "Potential MVP candidate" makes me tingly

[Eli]

I find it interesting that most (if not all) of the major national pundits totally ignore Bryant's K and contact rates. Maybe they think he'll overcome it, but it's weird that something fairly important usually goes unmentioned.

EDIT: I tweeted at Law about this and he replied with two words ("way overblown"), which really clears things up.

[SKO]

I find it interesting that most (if not all) of the major national pundits totally ignore Bryant's K and contact rates. Maybe they think he'll overcome it, but it's weird that something fairly important usually goes unmentioned.

EDIT: I tweeted at Law about this and he replied with two words ("way overblown"), which really clears things up.

INTREPID READER KEITH LAW: tired of your pessimistic bullshit, Eli.

[Eli]

I find it interesting that most (if not all) of the major national pundits totally ignore Bryant's K and contact rates. Maybe they think he'll overcome it, but it's weird that something fairly important usually goes unmentioned.

EDIT: I tweeted at Law about this and he replied with two words ("way overblown"), which really clears things up.

INTREPID READER KEITH LAW: tired of your pessimistic bullshit, Eli.

Hey, I thought your whole thing was going to be pessimism from now on? I passed that torch to you like 4 months ago.

[SKO]

I find it interesting that most (if not all) of the major national pundits totally ignore Bryant's K and contact rates. Maybe they think he'll overcome it, but it's weird that something fairly important usually goes unmentioned.

EDIT: I tweeted at Law about this and he replied with two words ("way overblown"), which really clears things up.

INTREPID READER KEITH LAW: tired of your pessimistic bullshit, Eli.

Hey, I thought your whole thing was going to be pessimism from now on? I passed that torch to you like 4 months ago.

That was a contingency plan when I thought Lester was going to be a Giant. Still down on the Bears though, if that helps.

[SKO]

I find it interesting that most (if not all) of the major national pundits totally ignore Bryant's K and contact rates. Maybe they think he'll overcome it, but it's weird that something fairly important usually goes unmentioned.

EDIT: I tweeted at Law about this and he replied with two words ("way overblown"), which really clears things up.

INTREPID READER KEITH LAW: tired of your pessimistic bullshit, Eli.

Hey, I thought your whole thing was going to be pessimism from now on? I passed that torch to you like 4 months ago.

That was a contingency plan when I thought Lester was going to be a Giant. Still down on the Bears though, if that helps.

<---see, positive guy

[PenFoe]

Law's full top 10 for the Cubs is out.

1. Kris Bryant
2. Addison Russell
3. Jorge Soler
4. Kyle Schwarber
5. Gleybar Torres (!!)
6. Billy McKinney
7. Albert Almora
8. Duane Underwood
9. C.J. Edwards
10. Jen-Ho Tseng

Pretty nice to see 3 pitches on the list, especially when Pierce Johnson isn't one of them. 

Crazy to see Gleybar that high.

[SKO]

Law's full top 10 for the Cubs is out.

1. Kris Bryant
2. Addison Russell
3. Jorge Soler
4. Kyle Schwarber
5. Gleybar Torres (!!)
6. Billy McKinney
7. Albert Almora
8. Duane Underwood
9. C.J. Edwards
10. Jen-Ho Tseng

Pretty nice to see 3 pitches on the list, especially when Pierce Johnson isn't one of them. 

Crazy to see Gleybar that high.

I always forget about Billy McKinney. Seems like he actually has a future. Why, he may even be the Matt Murton of this trade.