Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[SKO]

So at the risk of sounding like a common Chuck who basically gave Javy a week before deciding he wanted him dead, what are the odds Javy gets traded before he appears in a Cub uniform again?

Like 10 percent? They're not going to get anything of substantial value for him right now, so I can't imagine they'll just unload him for the sake of doing so.

My mantra has been since last summer that nobody has to get dealt yet.

That time's coming, but it still isn't here yet.  Baez is better off restoring his value off of AAA tomato cans for the time being.  

I didn't mean "CUBS SHOULD TRADE BAEZ RIGHT NOW" if that's how it sounded. I just meant it could be Addison is the guy now and will get first crack at 2B and Javy may end up part of a package some time down the road, since I really doubt Javy is the kind of guy who will beef up his trade value by only getting a few ABs a week as part of a timeshare.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

DPD.

I should add, his offensive value.

Baez' defense has been somewhat of a revelation, for me at least.  You hear a guy makes 40 errors at AA and figure he has to make it with the bat because he's a lumbering fielder who'll hurt you out there.

But after watching him play near the Jim Tocco-approved 100 times, I can say that the guy's a legit infielder. I actually don't feel worse overall about Baez than I did a year ago (partly because of the wealth of other prospects of course).  I'm disappointed that he's not more consistent as a hitter, but he's certainly not without value and will play somewhere.  Whether it'd be with the Cubs or someone else, there'd be value for a gold glove second baseman who could hit 25 homeruns, albeit with 200 K's, and a .220/.290 BA/OBP.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

CUBS SHOULD TRADE BAEZ RIGHT NOW

Too late'd.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

So at the risk of sounding like a common Chuck who basically gave Javy a week before deciding he wanted him dead, what are the odds Javy gets traded before he appears in a Cub uniform again?

Like 10 percent? They're not going to get anything of substantial value for him right now, so I can't imagine they'll just unload him for the sake of doing so.

My mantra has been since last summer that nobody has to get dealt yet.

That time's coming, but it still isn't here yet.  Baez is better off restoring his value off of AAA tomato cans for the time being.  

I didn't mean "CUBS SHOULD TRADE BAEZ RIGHT NOW" if that's how it sounded. I just meant it could be Addison is the guy now and will get first crack at 2B and Javy may end up part of a package some time down the road, since I really doubt Javy is the kind of guy who will beef up his trade value by only getting a few ABs a week as part of a timeshare.

In all seriousness, when Addison's ready he'll play shortstop.  I don't see Castro fending him off.  Unless he thinks he's Derek Jeter, Castro should maybe be the 3rd baseman here. 

Addison's readiness is what'll finally force a decision like this.  I just don't see Russell playing 2B though.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

And wouldn't service time considerations prevent Russell from "beating" Baez back up to the bigs?  Maybe not?

[SKO]

And wouldn't service time considerations prevent Russell from "beating" Baez back up to the bigs?  Maybe not?

that's possible, but assuming they're actually in contention in 2015 I'd expect them not to really worry about Russell's service time if he's ready by mid-season. With Bryant it only makes sense since he's already done his time in AAA and it's a matter of days and you aren't sure exactly where the team's at, but if they're contending midseason and Addison is tearing up AAA I would hope they've reached the point where service time is no longer the main consideration.

[SKO]

Also am I the only one that thinks Starlin's actually worked hard to become a pretty good defensive shorstop and it's perfectly fine if the Cubs want to leave him there and let Russell be a really good 2B?

Just seems like given the learning curve Starlin had at SS asking him to make a position change seems foolhardy when he's a perfectly good SS and Addison by all accounts could be a great 2B, too. Whereas Starlin's bat wouldn't be as much of a plus at 3B and his defense would become a question mark again.

[R-V]

Also am I the only one that thinks Starlin's actually worked hard to become a pretty good defensive shorstop and it's perfectly fine if the Cubs want to leave him there and let Russell be a really good 2B?

Just seems like given the learning curve Starlin had at SS asking him to make a position change seems foolhardy when he's a perfectly good SS and Addison by all accounts could be a great 2B, too. Whereas Starlin's bat wouldn't be as much of a plus at 3B and his defense would become a question mark again.

Addison looks to my untrained eye like a guy who could/will pack some el-bees on to his Juan Uribe-esque frame. In which case I could see him playing 3B.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

So Russell at 3rd, Castro stays.

I was not denigrating Castro's play at shortstop BTW.  He's MUCH improved and more consistent than when he was a kid. He's fine there.  I happen to think Baez would be a better shortstop (as would Russell) but I'd prefer not to get tangled up in it, instead appreciating for a moment the time we're in here. These are nice problems to have as they say.

[InternetApex]

Does Castro look much bigger to anybody else this spring? He looks huge to me. (||)

[Quality Start Machine]

Does Castro look much bigger to anybody else this spring? He looks huge to me. (||)

Manny's a coach now. He's juicing the shit out of everyone.

[Eli]

And wouldn't service time considerations prevent Russell from "beating" Baez back up to the bigs?  Maybe not?

that's possible, but assuming they're actually in contention in 2015 I'd expect them not to really worry about Russell's service time if he's ready by mid-season. With Bryant it only makes sense since he's already done his time in AAA and it's a matter of days and you aren't sure exactly where the team's at, but if they're contending midseason and Addison is tearing up AAA I would hope they've reached the point where service time is no longer the main consideration.

I think 2015 is Russell's service-time manipulation, just like Bryant's. He's ready now. Waiting around until 2016 for him to arrive is too long, especially when he almost started last year in the majors and Maddon is openly telling people he doesn't even know what Russell needs to improve.

[SKO]

And wouldn't service time considerations prevent Russell from "beating" Baez back up to the bigs?  Maybe not?

that's possible, but assuming they're actually in contention in 2015 I'd expect them not to really worry about Russell's service time if he's ready by mid-season. With Bryant it only makes sense since he's already done his time in AAA and it's a matter of days and you aren't sure exactly where the team's at, but if they're contending midseason and Addison is tearing up AAA I would hope they've reached the point where service time is no longer the main consideration.

I think 2015 is Russell's service-time manipulation, just like Bryant's. He's ready now. Waiting around until 2016 for him to arrive is too long, especially when he almost started last year in the majors and Maddon is openly telling people he doesn't even know what Russell needs to improve.

Yeah. Supposedly Oakland would have had Russell up by the end of the season last year had he not gotten hurt. I think the injury gave Theo a nice excuse to stash him in AA till the end of last year, and the need for AAA experience (which, the one consistent thing they've done with every prospect is insist that all of them get some time at every level) is an excuse to send him to start this year, but no way he makes it all of the way through this year in the minors barring injury and a surprising regression. If he does that while the Cubs are in the chase then Theo deserves all of the bile Gordo can spit at him.

[World's #1 Astros Fan]

And wouldn't service time considerations prevent Russell from "beating" Baez back up to the bigs?  Maybe not?

that's possible, but assuming they're actually in contention in 2015 I'd expect them not to really worry about Russell's service time if he's ready by mid-season. With Bryant it only makes sense since he's already done his time in AAA and it's a matter of days and you aren't sure exactly where the team's at, but if they're contending midseason and Addison is tearing up AAA I would hope they've reached the point where service time is no longer the main consideration.

I think 2015 is Russell's service-time manipulation, just like Bryant's. He's ready now. Waiting around until 2016 for him to arrive is too long, especially when he almost started last year in the majors and Maddon is openly telling people he doesn't even know what Russell needs to improve.

I was referring to the scenario wherein he bats Baez back to the bigs. Wouldn't there be a difference if Russell came up now, as opposed to, say mid-June?

[Powdered Toast Man]

So Russell at 3rd, Castro stays.

I was not denigrating Castro's play at shortstop BTW.  He's MUCH improved and more consistent than when he was a kid. He's fine there.  I happen to think Baez would be a better shortstop (as would Russell) but I'd prefer not to get tangled up in it, instead appreciating for a moment the time we're in here. These are nice problems to have as they say.

Very nice problems indeed, but that doesn't mean we can't be internet GM's.

If the Cubs do keep Baez and intend to have him as part of their long term future (something I'm not 100% sure of...not like I'm sure Bryant and Russell are part of the long term outlook), then Bryant more than likely goes to LF. It appears he's going there right now, anyway.

Given that circumstance (Bryant to LF), I've run circles around what I think the futureinfield would look like (assuming, also, that Mike Olt is an afterthought). What is the BEST defensive infield given Castro, Baez and Russell? If I just use range factor, the best is Baez at 4.56 (mostly SS in the minors), then Castro at 4.28 and then Russell at 4.10. By FLD% it's Castro, Russell, Baez. FLD% is a weak measurable though, right?

If I had to make a swamp-educated guess, I'd probably assume Starlin at SS, Baez at 2B and Russell at 3B. I couldn't find much more in the way of advanced defensive statistics (I didn't really dig all that much, assuming defensive stats for minor league players would be sparse). The thinking is that the Cubs would be fine no matter who plays where on defense out of those three. They are all above average defensive infielders.

I also would find it hard to believe that Russell doesn't get called up this year.