Cubs' Prospects FUTUREBONER thread

[Quality Start Machine]

If Almora wants to keep hitting the ever-loving shit out of the ball that would be pretty awesome.

Also Vogelbach took out the "A" in the Principal Park sign on the video board with a massive dong. Good stuff.

Which one?

The one in "Park". The top of it too.

[R-V]

Playing around on Fangraphs trying to figure out an Almora comp of recent vintage and Ender Inciarte was interesting, given his general perception (like Almora) as a great defender. These are all 2014-2016 numbers and both have over 1,000 PAs during that span, so a good sample size. I have no idea to what extent Almora's #s as a guy 3-4 years younger than the leagues he's played in, are comparable to Enciarte's major league numbers.

Enciarte: 5.2% BB%
             11.0% K%
             .315 wOBA
             6.0 WAR

Almora: 5.0% BB%
            11.7% K%
            .310 wOBA

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

[SKO]

Playing around on Fangraphs trying to figure out an Almora comp of recent vintage and Ender Inciarte was interesting, given his general perception (like Almora) as a great defender. These are all 2014-2016 numbers and both have over 1,000 PAs during that span, so a good sample size. I have no idea to what extent Almora's #s as a guy 3-4 years younger than the leagues he's played in, are comparable to Enciarte's major league numbers.

Enciarte: 5.2% BB%
            11.0% K%
            .315 wOBA
            6.0 WAR

Almora: 5.0% BB%
           11.7% K%
           .310 wOBA

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

Inciarte seems like a reasonable mid-level projection. He definitely appears to have adjusted enough since midseason last year that I have moved my expectations up from "suitable bench player/late inning defense" to "hey maybe he'll be like Nori Aoki with fewer walks and more power".  Keep moving the needle, Al.

[Eli]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

[SKO]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

HueyCast Future Lineup Projection System Forecast of:

RF Heyward
2B Zobrist
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber/Soler platoon
SS Russell
C Contreras
CF Almora

Works for me.

[Quality Start Machine]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

HueyCast Future Lineup Projection System Forecast of:

RF Heyward Jiminez
2B Zobrist Happ
1B Rizzo Vogelbach
3B Bryant Candelario
LF Schwarber/Soler platoon McKinney
SS Russell Torres
C Contreras
CF Almora

Works for me.

[SKO]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

HueyCast Future Lineup Projection System Forecast of:

RF Heyward Jiminez
2B Zobrist Happ
1B Rizzo Vogelbach
3B Bryant Candelario
LF Schwarber/Soler platoon McKinney
SS Russell Torres
C Contreras
CF Almora

Works for me.

That lineup probably wins more games than the Brewers.

[PenFoe]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

HueyCast Future Lineup Projection System Forecast of:

RF Heyward Jiminez
2B Zobrist Happ
1B Rizzo Vogelbach
3B Bryant Candelario
LF Schwarber/Soler platoon McKinney
SS Russell Torres
C Contreras
CF Almora

Works for me.

That lineup probably wins more games than the Brewers.

Donnie Dewees is so pissed you put McKinney over him.
Just another post he's gonna circle in mustard.

[R-V]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

HueyCast Future Lineup Projection System Forecast of:

RF Heyward
2B Zobrist
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber/Soler platoon
SS Russell
C Contreras
CF Almora

Works for me.

I assume by future you are thinking 2017? With all these young'uns I think I'm just predisposed to think of players as dead once they pass 35, so my mindset has been that Zobrist will man second this year and next and then he'll die/retire/hit the bench. Which opens up a spot for Happ or Gleyber in 2018. Heady times my friends.

[Eli]

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

I could see it happening, without the stolen bases and with maybe a few more dingers.

[SKO]

If he can sustain the offensive improvement - it's early but he has his walk rate up to about 9% and k rate down to about 10% this year - I think a less speedy Lorenzo Cain could be within reach.

That's the comp I've had in my head for a little while. Something somewhere between 2013 and 2014 version of Cain seems to be a reasonable upper projection that we could all be happy with.

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

HueyCast Future Lineup Projection System Forecast of:

RF Heyward
2B Zobrist
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber/Soler platoon
SS Russell
C Contreras
CF Almora

Works for me.

I assume by future you are thinking 2017? With all these young'uns I think I'm just predisposed to think of players as dead once they pass 35, so my mindset has been that Zobrist will man second this year and next and then he'll die/retire/hit the bench. Which opens up a spot for Happ or Gleyber in 2018. Heady times my friends.

Yeah, 2017. I figured by next year Contreras and Montero will probably be in a platoon, with Contreras getting more starts as the year goes along. I do expect Zobrist to be phased out by year 3/4 of his deal in favor of either Happ or Gleyber. Or Javy, honestly. He's got the super utility gig going for him right now but if he keeps hitting then he's going to start getting the bulk of starts at some position or another.

Man there's a lot of fucking talent in this organization.

[SKO]

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

I could see it happening, without the stolen bases and with maybe a few more dingers.

DPD, I've seen Almora's raw power ranked anywhere from 45-55 and his speed ranked anywhere from 55-65 on the chart, but he hasn't hit for much power in the minors or stolen many bases. If the raw talent is in there though it's not hard to imagine him either putting it all together and hitting 12-15 homers in the majors or stealing 15-25 bases. Those are probably his ceiling though.

[PenFoe]

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

I could see it happening, without the stolen bases and with maybe a few more dingers.

DPD, I've seen Almora's raw power ranked anywhere from 45-55 and his speed ranked anywhere from 55-65 on the chart, but he hasn't hit for much power in the minors or stolen many bases. If the raw talent is in there though it's not hard to imagine him either putting it all together and hitting 12-15 homers in the majors or stealing 15-25 bases. Those are probably his ceiling though.

Worth noting that Lorenzo Cain had over 2800 minor league ABs before he came to the pros.  Almora is currently at *only* 1362, less than half. 
Cain made his major league debut at 24; Almora is only 22.

I've been as down on Almora as anyone, but he's certainly due a bit more time in the minors before we can fairly gauge his potential. 

[SKO]

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

I could see it happening, without the stolen bases and with maybe a few more dingers.

DPD, I've seen Almora's raw power ranked anywhere from 45-55 and his speed ranked anywhere from 55-65 on the chart, but he hasn't hit for much power in the minors or stolen many bases. If the raw talent is in there though it's not hard to imagine him either putting it all together and hitting 12-15 homers in the majors or stealing 15-25 bases. Those are probably his ceiling though.

Worth noting that Lorenzo Cain had over 2800 minor league ABs before he came to the pros.  Almora is currently at *only* 1362, less than half. 
Cain made his major league debut at 24; Almora is only 22.

I've been as down on Almora as anyone, but he's certainly due a bit more time in the minors before we can fairly gauge his potential. 

He's mostly been the victim of being stuck in a system where every other highly touted Theo pick has already rushed through the minors and contributed at the major league level. Guys like Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, Soler and even Baez are the exception when it comes to development paths, but they've been the rule for this organization. It was hard not to yell "DO SOMETHING ALREADY" at Almora and to hand wave away the "he's still really young!" excuse. It also doesn't help that, at his best, he's going to be a high-contact, slap-hitting glove first player. That's not as easy to get excited about as DINGERS, even for those of us who appreciate WAR and defensive metrics enough to realize just how valuable that scrappy gold glove CF type would be.

[Shooter]

2013/2014 Cain averaged out to one season: .278/.325/.383/.708, 4 dingers, 50 RBI, 25 doubles, 4 triples, 21 stolen bases, roughly 3-4 win player assuming Almora's defense in CF is as advertised. That would be pretty cool.

I could see it happening, without the stolen bases and with maybe a few more dingers.

DPD, I've seen Almora's raw power ranked anywhere from 45-55 and his speed ranked anywhere from 55-65 on the chart, but he hasn't hit for much power in the minors or stolen many bases. If the raw talent is in there though it's not hard to imagine him either putting it all together and hitting 12-15 homers in the majors or stealing 15-25 bases. Those are probably his ceiling though.

Worth noting that Lorenzo Cain had over 2800 minor league ABs before he came to the pros.  Almora is currently at *only* 1362, less than half. 
Cain made his major league debut at 24; Almora is only 22.

I've been as down on Almora as anyone, but he's certainly due a bit more time in the minors before we can fairly gauge his potential. 

Cain didn't play baseball until his sophomore year in high school, so he has an unusual learning curve.